Bobby Turner targeted another RB in this draft who he believes has the skillset to excel in his outside zone stretch play that hasn't been effective since the departure of Mostert. He also moved on bringing in UDFA Cody Schrader and F/A Patrick Taylor. Assuming they carry 5 running backs including Juice, someone is getting squeezed. CMC/Mitchell/Mason/Schrader/Juice and Guerendo gets the red shirt by coming down with an injury designation. Thoughts?
completion rate inside the 10-yard line the last 2 years:
ReplyDelete64% - Brock Purdy
62% - Patrick Mahomes
57% - Lamar Jackson
57% - Jimmy Garoppolo
56% - Dak Prescott
56% - Ryan Tannehill
55% - Jared Goff
54% - Jordan Love
54% - Justin Fields
54% - Mac Jones
53% - Aaron Rodgers
52% - Justin Herbert
52% - Trevor Lawrence
52% - Joe Burrow
52% - Josh Allen
51% - Kirk Cousins
51% - Baker Mayfield
50% - Tom Brady
49% - Geno Smith
49% - Tua Tagovailoa
48% - Matthew Stafford
47% - Russell Wilson
43% - Kyler Murray
42% - Sam Howell
42% - Kenny Pickett
42% - Jalen Hurts
41% - Desmond Ridder
39% - Derek Carr
*2022 & 2023, min 35 dropbacks
I didn't know Guerendo was hurt. But if he's healthy in TC, Shrader may take a back seat to him. There's no guarantee that Guerrendo will make the 53, but Schrader's UDFA position puts the onus on him to really shine from day one of TC. I aways root for the underdog and Schrader is that guy guy me.
ReplyDeleteGuerendo isn't "hurt" but he could get the Luter Jr. treatment and redshirt.
DeleteThanks, got it.
ReplyDeleteRazor,
ReplyDeleteWhat I like about Guerendo is that he isn't a dancer behind the line of scrimmage (Kevin Barlow). He's mostly a straight line RB with a one cut style. And he's not afraid to run over defenders in his way.
I'm interested to see how he progresses in TC.
Lots of interesting competition across the board in this camp.
DeleteAgree. Competition is going to be intense this summer. Should be a riveting training camp.
DeleteHere is my prediction:
CMC/Mitchell/Mason/Guerendo/Juice
Choosing Guerendo over Schrader because of his speed which will be a critical skillset on ST this year (with the new rules)
Schrader gets the "injury" designation, although I like him a lot and I think he will turn out better than Mason in the long term.
Mug,
DeleteI see it that way as well. Schrader was the talk of mini camp, but there's no hitting in MC. TC, will be very intriguing at many positions.
How carefully does the NFL monitor injuries? I think they are pretty strict about it or teams would never have to let a player go through waivers that they want to stash for a year. Also whats to keep players from coming out and saying they weren't really injured when they were put on the IL once they were playing for another team. I could see the league office stripping teams of multiple draft picks for something like that.
ReplyDeleteWe've been doing it for awhile and every team probably does it. All it takes is a minor injury as we saw with Luter Jr. last year.
DeleteOther than CMC and Juice, the other RB's fate all have a question mark!
ReplyDelete* Mitchell looks to be RB #2 but he's injury prone and with the 9er FO looking for money to sign Aiyuk, Mitchell could be traded or a salary casualty?
* Mason could be the #2 RB if Mitchell is traded, but KS says no block, no rock. He too could be a casualty?
* With Guerendo's size and speed, he could give the 9er running game what they haven't had since Mostert.
Guerendo and CMC could be the best 1-2 punch in the NFL, running the inside/ outsize zone. Pre season should give us a better idea how
that works out.
* UDFA Schrader is, as you say, an underdog. His Combine 40 was bad, but he dominated the SEC, leading with an impressive average of 125.1 rushing yards per game over 13 contests. He amassed a total of 1,627 rushing yards on 276 carries, setting a new record at Mizzou for single-season rushing yards and eclipsing the previous mark set in 2021. His outstanding play earned him several prestigious accolades, including the 2023 Burlsworth Trophy. He could be the 9er find of the
year?
Idk how it’s going to shake out but don’t forget Taylor. He could outsurvive both Mitchell and Mason.
DeleteCMC/Schrader/Guerendo/Taylor
Deleterate of RBs being stuffed for no gain in short yardage
ReplyDelete44% - HOU
43%
42%
41%
40%
39%
38%
37%
36%
35% - MIN
34% - CIN
33% - LAC
32%
31% - DEN, JAX, ATL
30%
29% - PIT, CLE
28%
27% - WAS, WAS, NYG, TEN, SEA, DET, CAR
26% - IND
25%
24% - LV, MIA, TB, GB
23% - KC, DAL
22% - CHI, NYJ
21%
20% - SF
19% - ARI, NE
18% - BUF, PHI
17%
16%
15% - LAR
14%
13%
12% - NO
11%
10% - BAL
*2023 regular season, short yardage = 1-2 yards to go
If a 49ers runner gets stuffed it seems to be on 1st or 2nd down.
ReplyDeletelongest streak of games with an interception
ReplyDelete9 - Josh Allen
8
7 - Sam Howell
6 - Jimmy Garoppolo
5 - Joe Flacco
5 - Jordan Love
4 - Matthew Stafford
4 - Justin Fields
4 - Jalen Hurts
4 - Daniel Jones
4 - Mac Jones
4 - Desmond Ridder
4 - Patrick Mahomes
4 - Geno Smith
4 - Baker Mayfield
3 - PJ Walker
3 - Gardner Minshew
3 - Brock Purdy
3 - Trevor Siemian
3 - Jared Goff
3 - Derek Carr
3 - Ryan Tannehill
3 - Justin Herbert
3 - Tim Boyle
3 - Jake Browning
3 - Tyrod Taylor
2 - Tommy DeVito
2 - Russell Wilson
2 - Blaine Gabbert
2 - Kenny Pickett
2 - Case Keenum
2 - Kirk Cousins
2 - Nick Mullens
2 - Kyler Murray
2 - Tua Tagovailoa
2 - Lamar Jackson
2 - Trevor Lawrence
2 - Deshaun Watson
2 - Drew Lock
2 - Joe Burrow
2 - Dak Prescott
2 - Mitchell Trubisky
2 - C.J. Stroud
2 - Bailey Zappe
2 - Tyson Bagent
2 - Will Levis
2 - Zach Wilson
2 - Aidan O'Connell
2 - Joshua Dobbs
*2023 regular season
Razor,
DeleteDo you know which 3 consecutive games BP threw Ints in? I have to say I was surprised where Pickett, Wilson, Tua, Jackson, Lawerence, Prescott and Stroud, were ranked. Razor where do you get all of the stats you post? Keep it up it gives us something to post about during the slowest time of the year. Thanks
Old Coach,
DeleteIf memory serves me right, it was Browns, Vikings, and Bengals. Razor can correct me if I'm wrong.
All three Defensive Coordinators - Jim Schwartz, Brian Flores and Lou Anarumo respectively, are top-tier IMHO.
Sharp Football Analysis, OldCoach.
DeleteRazor
ReplyDeleteJust curious. Do your stats for 9er RBs being stuffed for no gain in short yardage, show if they're running to the left, or right side?
They did not.
DeleteOnly 5 active quarterbacks have more playoff wins than Brock Purdy:
ReplyDeleteMahomes, Rodgers, Wilson, Allen, Burrow. That is all.
Hopefully, Purdy puts his name next to Rodgers, Mahomes, and Wilson as Superbowl Champs at some point as well. The 49ers window is still very much open in 2024.
ReplyDelete20 days until rookies report.
ReplyDeleteArticle today in NN references an article about a mathematical model attempting to put in-game play speed for WRs on the same scale as their NFL Combine 40-yard dash. Link is below. There's a table showing the top 5 NFL receivers who play faster than their Combine 40. Jennings is at the top, followed by Cooper Kupp and Kendrick Bourne.
ReplyDeletehttps://josephferraiola.substack.com/p/linear-play-speed-adjusted-40-model?sort=new
19 days until rookies report
ReplyDeleteI wonder how/ if the Sunday Ticket ruling will impact growth in the salary cap moving forward...?
ReplyDeleteMeh, seems to me the cap should be approaching 330 million by 2026. I don't think it'll affect it enough to notice.
DeleteCombined team salary cap is around $10B. What the NFL is being asked to pay in damages is around half that. Will also likely impact future tv revenue.
DeleteMight not see the impact for a few years, but at some point I expect we will if the NFL is unable to have the damages payment revoked.
Adds another layer of complexity to contract negotiations over the next few years.
Good point.
Deleteranking the NFL's best offensive lines:
ReplyDelete1. Lions
2. Falcons
3. Browns
4. Eagles
5. Chiefs
6. Jets
7. Packers
8. Colts
9. Bengals
10. Vikings
11. Broncos
12. Bears
13. Rams
14. Texans
15. Chargers
16. Ravens
17. 49ers
18. Raiders
19. Bucs
20. Steelers
21. Panthers
22. Bills
23. Jaguars
24. Saints
25. Dolphins
26. Titans
27. Commanders
28. Cowboys
29. Seahawks
30. Patriots
31. Cardinals
32. Giants
*2024 predicted rankings
full analysis & logic:
https://sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/best-nfl-offensive-line-rankings/
Mediocre line coupled with top 100 players at the skill positions should propel the Niners deep into the playoffs.
Delete18 days until rookies report
ReplyDeleteIt has been reported that Aiyuk was at 49ers HQ today. I haven't heard anything about his visit, I do know he was on a vlog today.
ReplyDeleteSo it appears Aiyuk made it clear today that he wants top dollar and won’t give SF a hometown discount.
ReplyDelete