Will the 3rd time be the charm? Good evening and welcome to gameday everyone. How are we feeling about this matchup? Here's some stats that should make you feel good about the 49ers chances tonight:
Jared Goff in a clean pocket:
76% completion, 8.2 YPA, 27 TDs, 3 INTs Jared Goff under pressure: 51.4% completion, 6.3 YPA, 6 TDs, 9 INTsEPA per play in a clean pocket:
#1 Brock Purdy
#7 Jared Goff
EPA per play under pressure:
#3 Brock Purdy
#28 Jared Goff
Lions QB Jared Goff this season:
In 10 home games: 64.3 QBR, 8.1 yards/attempt, 22 TD, 6 INT
In 8 road games: 57.8 QBR, 7.1 yards/attempt, 11 TD, 6 INT
Lions run man coverage at the 5th-highest rate in the NFL this season.
Brock Purdy vs. man coverage this season:
#1 in yards per attempt
#1 in EPA per play
#1 in passer rating
#1 in passer rating under pressure
#2 in EPA per play under pressure
Brock Purdy leads the NFL in TD passes when scrambling out of the pocket.
The Lions have a Top 10 blitz rate on 1st/2nd down this season at 28%. Brock Purdy is #1 against the blitz.
The #Lions had a passer rating of 113.8 this season when targeting in between the numbers (2nd in NFL). The #49ers defense allowed a passer rating of 77.3 in between the numbers (1st in NFL).
Lions are #1 against the run on 1st downs giving up only 3 yards.
Lions backup left guard Kayode Awosika allowed a team-high 7 pressures on 28 pass blocking snaps (25.0%) after Jonah Jackson left the game in the 2nd quarter (0 pressures on 18 pass blocking snaps).
Vita Vea generated 4 pressures in 5 matchups vs Awosika
The key to this game is Hargrave, Armstead, Warner and Greenlaw. 'A' gap pressure to make Goff move left or right is imperative. Do that and the 49ers win 35-20. Bring it home to the bay!
49ers inactives vs. Lions in NFC Championship game:
-WR Ronnie Bell
-WR Willie Snead
-OL Matt Pryor
-LB Curtis Robinson
-LB Jalen Graham
-CB Samuel Womack
-Third QB-Brandon Allen
I am more concerned about the Lions run game then I am about Goofy I mean Goff. Basically I am more concerned about the Niners defense as a whole, the Niners defense need to stand tall and play to their capabilities.
ReplyDeleteI think better footing should allow the defense to play to their capabilities. I think the Niners style of defense is to limit explosives in the passing game and to live with the opponent nickel and diming them in the running game. That strategy works if the Niners can get an early lead because it gets the opponent to abandon the run. If you look at the Packers game, they held Jones in check pretty much the entire game except for his big run of 53 yards. I think he only had 55 yards prior to that run and finished the game with 108.
DeleteI believe there are two keys to a 9er victory today and their names are Nick Bosa and Chase Young. Setting the edge against the run and rushing the QB against the pass. If they both play solid games in those areas the 9ers will win. If they don't we will be watching the Lions in the SB. I am too young to remember the 1957 game but my Dad and his Brothers and Sisters replayed it every Christmas, Thanksgiving and family reunion, it became so ingrained in my mind its as if I was there. 66 years is a long time to wait for revenge but I think my Dad and his entire extended family are going to be up there rooting their asses off. After the game they can argue whether they should have traded Tittle and kept Brodie.
ReplyDeleteNo Burks today. DFF is next up but hasn't looked very good. Maybe Oliver gets some snaps in Nickel. Something to watch.
ReplyDeleteDetroit uses 3+ WR personnel roughly 65% of the time, which means Burks would have been on the field for roughly 35% of snaps. We'll see how much #49ers go with Flannigan-Fowles or use a big nickel with Oliver in slot while Lenoir stays outside.
DeleteI'm conflicted about this game.
ReplyDeleteThe Lions have a great O-Line and very capable running backs. Gibbs is a star in the making and they have a very aggressive rah-rah coach in Dan Campbell.
KS was ultra-conservative last game. Offense needs to be on point and they will be, but I'm worried about our D. If we can stop the Lions' run game and make Goff one dimensional, we will win handily. But our D has been bad these few games....at least to my eye-test.
Nevertheless Go Niners! 35-28
Turns out Adam Schefter was wrong on Burks.
ReplyDeleteHave said it here, said it on PD blog, that Kyle "The Genius" Shanahan will never take the 49ers to a Super Bowl victory. Repeat that belief again today. This 48ersUnderKSraBust signing off.
ReplyDeleteSome things NEVER change! I've been saying this for 6 years now ... KYLE can't handle the "moment", and it's obvious that Dan Campbell can!
DeleteThere is something schematically wrong with Niners D on pin-pull runs. Frank Ragnow was untouched in the backfield flattening Warner on that first down run.
ReplyDeleteMillions of dollars into that defense and so far, they suck.
ReplyDeleteWhat a stupid a** decision to extend KS just a few games into this season. Sorry, but this guy is never going to get us there.
ReplyDeleteThe 49ers are completely overmatched from a coaching standpoint! This game is OVER already! Simply EMBARRASING!
ReplyDeleteThis is what I was worried about. Run D getting gashed.
ReplyDeleteGotta limit them to a FG or less this drive. More than 2 scores and we are toast.
How can the Top paid front 7 play so bad? Bosa, Hargrave, Armstead, Warner, Dre need to step up in Q2.
Defense is bad. They can’t stop the run and not getting pressure on Goff.
ReplyDeleteWhoops
ReplyDeleteIf Wilks and Shanahan can't make halftime adjustments, this will be the most disappointing loss since the underdog Minnesota Vikings beat the 49ers at home in the playoffs back in the 90s.
ReplyDeleteYeah, agree this will be the most disappointing loss of the Shanahan era if they don't somehow turn it around in the second half. Some of the other playoff losses have been tough, but ultimately understandable. This one is one they really should win, and it also feels like the team is getting near the point of needing to retool, so time is running out.
DeleteIt is now gonna be all passes in the 2nd half right? KS is gonna forget that we have CMC and put it all on Brock Purdy who is a 2nd year starter.
ReplyDeleteThere was a sequence before the INT where BP threw 6 straight passes. Why do we abandon the run?
As bad as Kyle's gameplan has been, Wilks' gameplan is worse by leaps and bounds! The 49ERS know that GOFF is atrocious against the blitz, so what's the defensive gameplan? Let's not blitz Goff! Are you kidding me? I am not trying to give Kyle a pass because the offense is laughable (NO CARRIES FOR MITCHELL OR MASON?) but my gosh, this defense is simply EMBARRASING!
ReplyDeleteAnonymous,
DeleteCorrect. The 49ers have lost their identity over the last two games. Remember, they just got by the Packers last week.
Mo is on our side now. Go Niners.
ReplyDeleteWe need the crowd to go crazy.
ReplyDeleteThe run fit has been better in the last two series.
ReplyDeleteDelusisonists and Homers is what this blog consists of, staring with Felix who is the 49ers Apologist No. 1. Don't know why I even check in here occasionally.
ReplyDeleteI don’t know why you do either since your only talent is name calling.
DeleteWow did the defense wake up from their nap?
ReplyDeleteEvery time Goff launches one deep, my heart skips a beat, esp. with Thomas and Brown at the back end....
ReplyDeleteA comeback for the ages! What a game. SMH! Unbelievable.
ReplyDeleteWow! Great halftime adjustments and yes, Purdy was great! One more to go.
ReplyDeleteWell, did not see that second half coming! That went from looking like one of the greatest disappointments of Shanahan's tenure to the best comeback win under Shanahan!
ReplyDeleteIt is 1957 all over again. Some where in heaven tonight my Dad his Brothers and Sisters and my cousins are crying. Oh and having a few cocktails.
ReplyDeleteYes my family also but the are taking it well and they have the future of a good Detroit team.
DeleteKyle Shanahan is now 8-3 in the postseason. That’s the second most playoff wins of any coach since he took over in 2017 (Andy Reid has the most) and he’s tied for the second highest playoff win percentage all time among coaches with at least 10 postseason games.
ReplyDeleteI don't know about you guys, but I am done criticizing KYLE SBHANAHAN after this masterful 2nd half turnaround!
ReplyDeleteSigned: 49Reasons
If only that were true.
DeleteIt was a great comeback by the offense. Defense is still questionable. Lions receivers dropped a number of easy 3rd down passes. They better not count on the Chiefs doing that. Personally, I still want Wilks gone.
ReplyDeleteI agree about Wilks and BP needs to have a much better game throwing the football in 2 weeks. He can't depend on scrambling.
DeleteDan Campbell had his team ready to play today. But in the end, it was his aggressive style that may have cost his players a win. Passing up on a 47 yrd field goal on 4th down was not good coaching.
ReplyDeleteWhen you live by the sword, you must die by the sword.
DeleteDavid Lombardi just called the Aiyuk catch off the CBs helmet the "Immaculate Deflection." That works for me.
ReplyDeletePurdy knows football, no doubt about it.
ReplyDeleteVictory Monday! What a sweet feeling.
ReplyDeleteI was about to turn off the game in the 2nd half, but each drive pulled me in and kept me on the hook. Glad I didn't.
I hope Kalia Davis suits up in the Superbowl and we get creative on the D-line with maybe Armstead lining up as DE opp Bosa. Randy Gregory and Chase ain't it. We need to prioritize D-Line and O-line in the draft. Mahomes will carve up this D without pressure upfront.
Mug,
ReplyDeleteI have been thinking the same thing about Armstead. He began his career as a DE. I see two problems with that move, first would Armstead be prepared for a position change with two weeks preperation? Second who would replace AA at DT? Kinlaw? Joseph-Day? Givens? I think a better idea is one they tried successfully earlier this year. A five man line. I think Givens is too small to anchor the inside but as an additional DT I think his quickness makes him a solid choice. Earlier this year when they were being gashed in the run game they went to a 5 man line and their run D improved radically right away.
Yeah 5 man D-Line is also a good wrinkle.
DeleteThe key against Mahomes is to make him uncomfortable. That is the only way TB (Tom Brady and Tampa Bay) won the SB.