49ers Offseason Primer - Looking for Veteran Help

By Scooter_McG

In my previous article I outlined the internal moves I believe the 49ers should make, in terms of coaching staff, own FA re-signings and restructuring deals for players to create cap space.

Since that article it has been confirmed that Bobby Slowik and Corey Undlin will be departing the 49ers to join up with DeMeco Ryans in Houston. In a corresponding move, the 49ers have hired Klint Kubiak to a yet to be defined 'senior assistant' position on offense, to replace Slowik. I personally love this hire as the Shanahan/ Kubiak tree has a long history of working well together and both Klint and Klay are creative offensive minds that have grown up around some of the best offensive coaches in football. Don't be surprised if Klint becomes a HC candidate in the near future as the next Shanahan disciple.

Quick Recap of Own Roster Decisions

As a recap, in terms of restructures/ extensions I suggested McCaffrey, Ward and Bosa were the obvious candidates, with those three moves likely capable of freeing up between $15M-$20M (and possibly more if the team is happy to push large chunks of the cap hit to future years), giving the team around $25M-$30M in cap space to play with. There is also the possibility of restructuring the deals for players like Williams, Warner, Armstead or Kittle, though I would suggest the team try to restrict itself in how much they touch these due to the already high annual prorated bonuses for these players. 

In terms of own FAs to re-sign, the guys I would make priorities are Gipson and Brendel. In my opinion the team should be able to retain those two players while only adding around $5M-$6M in 2023 cap liability - Gipson likely won't cost more than around $2.5M on a 1-year deal while Brendel I believe could be retained on a 2-3 year deal for around $6M per annum on average, but with a small cap hit in 2023. Robbie Gould will also likely be re-signed, but again, I would aim to keep his 2023 cap hit fairly low. There are also a bunch of lower cost pending FAs I outlined the team should retain, but bringing them back should not add much to the 2023 cap liability (when considering top 51 contracts, as only the top 51 contracts count against the cap until the final roster cuts). 

The 49ers should be able to retain these players while still having $20M+ in cap space to play with (some of which needs to be set aside for draft picks and in-season moves).

Notably, I would let the following bigger name players hit FA: Jimmie Ward, Mike McGlinchey, Emmanuel Moseley, Samson Ebukam, Charles Omenihu, Azeez Al-Shaair, Jimmy Garoppolo. If a market doesn't develop for Moseley, Ebukam or Omenihu, I would consider bringing them back. 

Free Agency

When it comes to FA, I think 49ers fans will need to go into this with reasonable expectations. Unless the team is willing to mortgage the future, they won't have the cap space to make a bunch of splash signings. And from what we have seen in the past, and what Lynch and Shanahan have repeatedly said about building the team the right way to compete every year, don't expect them to mortgage the future. 

Last offseason the approach was simple: they targeted a premier CB and STs, then used FA to fill out the roster with lower price FAs for depth and competition. I think we should expect a similar philosophy this year - maybe one or two 'splash' signings and a bunch of depth/ competition guys.

But what position(s) and which players should they target?

Assuming the team follows my formula for re-signing their own FAs, for mine there are really only three positions that make sense for a potential splash signing: RT, DT and DE. The other positions all have players that the team should feel reasonably comfortable starting and depth/ competition can be added with lower cost FAs and draft picks. 

Of those three positions, there is one position I feel the team absolutely needs to address through FA to add a high level starter, and that is NT/DT. Kinlaw simply hasn't developed the way the team hoped or been able to stay healthy, and while players like Givens and Ridgeway can likely be retained relatively cheaply they are also better suited as rotational players. 

Over on Twitter there is quite a lot of folks talking about David Onyemata from the Saints as being an ideal signing. I'll be honest, I disagree with this. Onyemata is more of a traditional 3T DT and while he is a nice interior pass rusher he can be a little suspect against the run. That is not what I believe the team needs, with Armstead, Givens, McGill and Ridgeway all able to provide a similar skillset. In my opinion they need someone that is stout against the run while also being able to provide some pass rush, to replace Kinlaw in the starting lineup. In saying that, it is worth keeping in mind the 49ers don't use a traditional NT - their DTs need to be able to penetrate.

I see two main candidates. My number one candidate would be Dalvin Tomlinson from the Vikings. He played a pseudo DT/DE role for the Vikings but is an ideal candidate for the DT spot next to Armstead in my opinion. The problem is he will likely be in high demand and could easily see a contract north of $10M a year. Even so, that's a figure I'd be willing to consider for him over say a 3-4 year deal, keeping the 2023 cap hit at a more manageable $5M range. If Tomlinson is a no-go, my fallback option would be Sheldon Rankins from the Jets, who will likely get a contract in the $6M-$8M a year range at maximum. 

With the money being spent at DT, I believe the 49ers would be well served looking to add serviceable but relatively low cost FAs at RT and edge to add to the competition/ rotation, supplemented with draft picks. 

At RT, the two players I would be looking at if I was the 49ers are Cameron Fleming and Jermaine Eluemunor. Both players had solid years last season and should be relatively cheap on short term deals. In the case of Fleming, Klint Kubiak will be familiar with the player from their time together last year. Neither player should be considered an upgrade from McGlinchey, but they can be serviceable starters that you also hope can be beaten out by a younger player. If the 49ers are willing to splash the cash at RT, to be honest, they would be best served retaining McGlinchey.

At edge, as much as I would love to bring in a big name star, I think the 49ers need to be looking for the next reclamation project for Kocurek to work his magic on. And I have a top candidate for this: Clelin Ferrell. Yes, Ferrell has been a major disappointment to date, after being the 4th overall pick in 2019. But there is no denying he has the physical talent and seems an ideal fit to get the Kocurek treatment on a 1-year prove it deal. The success of Kocurek in getting the best out of guys like Hyder, Key and Omenihu (and thus allowing these players to enter FA at the peak of their value) should be attractive to a guy like Ferrell who needs to shed the 'bust' label. As backup options, the Texans pair of Rasheem Green and Ogbonnia Okoronkwo also pique the interest. And if Ebukam or Omenihu do not see big money offers coming their way, I'd also be keen to bring back one of those players (but probably can't afford both).   

Aside from those positions, I think the 49ers should be looking more at depth/ competition rather than potential starters. One guy I would be keeping tabs on though is Byron Murphy, the Cardinals CB. He has the versatility to compete at both outside and slot CB and would be a nice addition if he can be brought in relatively cheaply. 

That's my thoughts on potential targets for the 49ers FA. Who would you like to see the team try to bring in? 

49ers Offseason Primer - Internal Moves

By Scooter_McG

The 49ers 2022 season ended in about as disappointing fashion as possible, with the team never standing a chance in the NFCCG as they lost QB Brock Purdy on their opening drive to a torn UCL in his elbow, and backup QB Josh Johnson later to concussion. Now comes the long offseason as the team looks to reload in pursuit of another crack at the Super Bowl in 2023.

I'll be doing a series of posts on my thoughts on what I see as being the key decisions for the 49ers this offseason, broken down across key areas. Today I will be focusing on the coaching staff/ front office and the 49ers own free agents. 

Coaching Staff and Front Office  

This is already underway as some staff have departed and one hire has already been made. The headline departure from the team is standout DC DeMeco Ryans, who was hired as HC of the Texans. So far only one other assistant has been confirmed as following Ryans to the Texans - quality control coach Stephen Adegoke who will take up coaching the Texans DBs. However, offensive passing game coordinator Bobby Slowik is rumoured to be a candidate as Ryans OC, while defensive passing game specialist and DBs coach Cory Undlin's contract has been allowed to expire and may not be retained. The team also lost Director of Player Personnel Ran Carthon to the Titans GM role, while assistant head coach and RBs coach Anthony Lynn has also fielded interviews with other teams. 

The big hire so far is Steve Wilks to the vacated DC role, who did a nice job as interim HC of the Panthers this season. He will be tasked with maintaining a top-end defensive unit following the excellent contributions of Ryans and Saleh before him. As DBs expert it is also likely he has someone in mind to take over from Undlin and/ or provide his own assistance in coaching the unit up as needed. Importantly, Kris Kocurek has agreed to stay on as DL coach to support Wilks.

The key from here will be in keeping as much of the remaining staff in place as possible. It will be interesting to see whether the team looks to promote someone to the OC role (such as Slowik) to keep hold of them, in a similar vein as what they did with McDaniel. On the defensive side of the ball, I will be looking closely at who they bring in as the new defensive quality control coach, as I wouldn't be shocked if it was someone they see as having potential to be a future internal promotion to DC in a few years time.

Own Free Agents to Retain and Position Needs

The 49ers have 46 players currently under contract for the 2023 season, though that includes only 33 players that were on the active roster or IR at the end of the 2022 season. The good news is the bulk of the 49ers starters are under contract and it is mostly depth players that are coming off contract. 

Even so, there a number of UFAs of note, including: Jimmy Garoppolo, Jimmie Ward, Samson Ebukam, Emmanuel Moseley, Mike McGlinchey, Jake Brendel, Azeez Al-Shaair, Tashaun Gipson, Charles Omenihu, Robbie Gould, Dan Brunskill, Jordan Willis, Hassan Ridgeway, Kerry Hyder, Tarvarius Moore, Ross Dwelley, Tyler Kroft, Taybor Pepper and Jason Verrett. There's a lot of good players on that list, many of which were important contributors in 2022. 

Kevin Givens, Colton McKivitz and Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles are also RFAs, while Jauan Jennings is an ERFA, though each of those players should be fairly easy to retain. 

Looking at who is off contract, there are a couple of notable players and positions to keep an eye on:

• OL: The OL was surprisingly good this season, in particular in pass protection. Brendel was something of a revelation at center, exceeding all expectations to the point where replacing him now seems a difficult task. It's difficult to predict what Brendel's market may be given he's already 30 and has only one year of starting experience in a system that is suited to his skillset. The 49ers should look to re-sign Brendel imo, though I suspect teams with a need at center that run zone heavy schemes will sniff around. Meanwhile, McGlinchey has been a mainstay on the right for much of the past five seasons, and while he has been known mainly for the couple of times a game he gets egregiously beaten, he has mostly been a solid starter with bouts of excellence in the run game. Contract predictors seem to believe he could be a fairly hot commodity and earn in the realm of $15M/annum. Brunskill has also been a reliable starter or backup for the team and for the right price I would be keen to see him brought back. There are some potential internal candidates to take over from these players. At center and OG, the 49ers drafted Nick Zakelj and signed UDFA Jason Poe last year, with both players getting some time training at center (mostly Zakelj). At RT, the team can easily re-sign RFA Colton McKivitz, who they held in high regard as potential future NFL OT in the 2020 draft, while they also have last season's swing OT Jaylon Moore that could complete for the job or potentially move RG Spencer Burford over. 
• DL: Bosa and Armstead are the key cogs of the DL, but the vast majority of their supporting cast are off contract. Omenihu, Ebukam, Willis, Hyder, Ridgeway and Givens all did a good job providing depth and rotation (with Ebukam and Givens playing a lot of starter snaps) and ideally the bulk of these players would be brought back. Givens as a RFA should be fairly easy to retain, while Willis, Hyder and Ridgeway can probably be brought back relatively cheaply, but Omenihu and Ebukam could both see contracts in the realm of $10M/annum which may be a little too much for the 49ers to match. I'd probably let both seek greener pastures, but I do believe the 49ers have a need to strengthen the DT position and add 1 or 2 quality edge rushers to add to the mix. 
• Safety/ Nickel: Talanoa Hufanga will lock down one starting safety spot following his breakout season, however, both Tashaun Gipson and Jimmie Ward are off contract leaving a hole at FS and nickel. George Odum is currently the only other safety on the roster with some starting experience, but he is more a STs specialist and the team should not go into the season with him pencilled in to compete for a starting job. At nickel, the 49ers draft Samuel Womack last year and while he struggled to get on the field this year I suspect it may be a similar case as with Lenoir where he comes back a better player following some rookie growing pains. The team also had a couple of players on the practice squad this year that they may be looking at to compete for jobs next season in Quantrezz Knight and Tayler Hawkins. For mine, Jimmie Ward is unlikely to be brought back unless for some reason no market eventuates for him (highly unlikely). Gipson meanwhile has made it known he will need some time away to decide on whether to retire or play on, though he did also say if he plays on he would want it to be with the 49ers. If I was the 49ers I would be keeping in close contact with Gipson and bring him back if he decides to play on. 
• Outside CB: Emmanuel Moseley is another interesting name on the FA list who I am sure the team would love to bring back if they can. But the salary cap and emergence of Demo Lenoir may make that difficult. The 49ers have two starting calibre CBs in Ward and Lenoir, but you can never have too many. If Moseley's knee injury suppresses his market I'd be keen to re-sign him, but I suspect DeMeco Ryans (among other teams) will also be keen to bring him in and will likely price him out of the 49ers range. Jason Verrett is also a FA again, but I think it is time to call time on Verrett. Depth will need to be added at CB. 
• QB: This one is pretty obvious - Jimmy Garoppolo will not be brought back. However, the injury to Purdy, and potential for his rehab to bleed into TC, means the team may need to think about brining in a vet QB as insurance.
• STs: Two of the three specialists are off contract (Gould and Pepper). Of the two, Pepper will be the easiest decision. He's been excellent and can be retained cheaply, so I expect him to be brought back. Gould, however, could be more of a discussion. He's excellent, but he's also old and expensive. I suspect the team will bring him back, but a real conversation should be had about whether to go a different direction to save some cap space. 

Those are the areas I see as being most interesting to watch for the 49ers this offseason. Yes, other positions are also worth keeping an eye on, such as what they do at LB behind Warner and Greenlaw and backup TE. But realistically those will likely be filled by some combination of cheap FAs (potentially their own) and/ or mid to late draft picks. I doubt Al-Shaair will be back as he should be able to get a pretty decent contract somewhere else (say, the Texans?). 

So, in summary, aside from the RFAs/ ERFAs they have, I think Brendel and Gipson should be the main priority of their own players to retain. After that, unless guys like Moseley, Omenihu or Ebukam don't see much of a market and can be brought back fairly cheaply, I would then be focusing on some of their mid-tier depth pieces, in particular on their DL and Brunskill. 

I'm then seeing the following positions as being the key priorities for FA (i.e. other teams FAs) and the draft:

• A good starting calibre DT
• 1 or 2 good rotational DEs (ideally one that can be a good starter, though the team will also be expecting Drake Jackson to step up)
• A RT to either be the clear cut starter (probably FA) or to compete (could be draft or FA)
• A couple of outside CBs, one FA and one draft, to push Lenoir and compete for 3rd and 4th CB spots
• A vet QB for insurance
• A young LB to groom (#3 LB this year and eventual replacement for Greenlaw).

Creating Cap Space

Courtesy of the folks over at 49erscap.com, they are currently projecting that the 49ers have just shy of $10M in cap space for 2023 following the various adjustments post the 2022 season. 

That isn't a lot of room to manoeuvre and bring back the players I outlined above, or to sign any outside FAs plus their draft class. The 49ers will need find ways to bring their current cap liability for the 2023 season down. 

Looking at the players under contract I can't see anyone I would want to let go of to create space. Javon Kinlaw is pretty much the only player I believe isn't worth his contract right now, but his contract is fully guaranteed so the 49ers would save nothing by releasing him. However, if they could find someone to trade for him and take on his $2.7M base salary, I'd probably do it. 

One easy avenue to see the 49ers saving some 2023 cap space is through the extension of Nick Bosa. The 49ers will of course do everything in their power to make this happen this offseason, and Bosa seems quite content to stay with the 49ers, so it is hard to mimagine both sides not getting something done. Bosa currently counts for $17.9M against the 2023 cap, and while he will likely earn around double that per season on his new deal, they can also structure the deal to decrease the 2023 cap hit. The question then comes down to how much they want to push into future years. The problem the 49ers will face though is an extension for Bosa likely won't happen swiftly. Based on past experience we should expect this to get done late July/ early August, around the time training camp starts. So they can't rely on this cap space being made available ahead of FA.

I see two other obvious candidates for a restructure and possible extensions:

• Christian McCaffrey. Much of his $12M base salary/ workout bonus can easily be converted to signing bonus to create cap space.
• Charvarius Ward: Yes, he was only signed last off-season to a 3-year deal. But the deal only had a relatively modest signing bonus and large salaries in years 2 and 3. Given the quality of his play last season the 49ers should feel comfortable converting much of his $13.5M base salary to signing bonus, and potentially even consider an extension. 

The team could likely free up around $15M to $20M with the above three deals.

There is of course also the potential of restructuring some of their biggest stars on long term contracts, such as Trent Williams, Fred Warner, George Kittle and Arik Armstead (the four of which are currently slated to count the most against the 2023 cap). However, each of those players already has prorated signing/ restructure bonuses in excess of $5M per season, and pushing that higher also comes with undeniable future cap risks (see Ford, Dee). 

It is also worth mentioning that Aiyuk is also now eligible for a contract extension. However, I would be shocked if the 49ers agree to work out an extension with Aiyuk this offseason given they have the 5th year option for next season.

So that's my run down of the 49ers internal offseason moves. What do you agree or disagree with?

I will also be providing future articles on my thoughts about potential FA and draft targets, as I'm sure razor will be. So lots of fun discussions to be had coming up!  

49ers Set To Hire New DC

 The #49ers plan to hire Steve Wilks as their defensive coordinator, per 

@RapSheet

and

@TomPelissero

Fangio's Defense