Week 14 Game Preview: 49ers vs Bucs

By Scooter_McG

The 49ers take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in week 14 in a battle of two NFC division leaders. The 49ers come into the game on a five game winning streak while the Bucs have been in indifferent form all season and required some late game Tom Brady heroics (and some mistakes by their opponent) to beat the Saints last week.

On form, this should be an easy win for the 49ers. But this game isn't about form, its about the two QBs. Tom Brady, the most experienced and winningest QB in the NFL, will be taking on a QB making his first NFL start for the seventh time in his career. This time it will be against a rookie who was the last pick of the NFL draft - the 49ers newest great hope, Brock Purdy. 

Brady's record against first start QBs is unblemished to date. But, while he remains a top QB, this season has not been one of his best. After averaging 9.1 and 8.1 air yards per attempt in 2020 and 2021, he is down to just 6.9 this season as the offense has become more dink and dunk with few deep passing attempts. This has coincided with his time to throw or be pressured dropping to a new low of just 2.2s. But the reduction in pass depth and time to throw has not coincided with an increase in yards after catch to compensate. While he continues to complete a lot of passes, the Bucs have struggled to keep drives alive and score points with their highly conservative passing game; they rank 27th in the NFL in points per game. A last ranked running game, averaging just 3.3 yards per carry, has certainly not helped matters.

Brock Purdy, on the other hand, comes into this game riding the high of leading the 49ers to victory against the high flying Dolphins last week after Jimmy Garoppolo was hurt on the opening drive. Purdy showed good poise in the pocket as well as an understanding of when and how to escape pressure, and the offense didn't seem to miss a beat after Jimmy G went down as a result. But it is one thing to perform in a game where you had no expectations on you, another to do it when you are the starting QB and teams have an opportunity to game plan for you. And as we all know, the 49ers record under Shanahan with any QB not named Jimmy is poor. 

It is a big ask to expect Purdy to keep the 49ers season afloat, but one thing he has in his favour (and something the other non-Jimmy QBs didn't have for most of their starts) is a highly talented and mostly healthy team around him. If Purdy can avoid the big mistakes and just continue to play mostly efficient football, the 49ers still have a good chance of making the playoffs and potentially being a nuisance come January. 

But that is getting ahead of ourselves. Purdy's first task is taking down the greatest to ever do it (no pressure!). The Bucs have a good defense that has kept opponents in check most of the season and is a key reason the Bucs have managed to stay in games and lead their division. It will be a tough game for the inexperienced rookie, but will also be a great litmus test - if he can come away from this game without faltering it bodes well for the remainder of the season. 

With a rookie QB making his first, against a good pass defense no less, it would seem to make sense for the 49ers to lean heavily on the running game. However, teams have done a very good job in recent weeks of taking the running game away and with Purdy under centre you can be sure the Bucs will focus heavily on doing just that again this week. If the 49ers are going to effectively move the ball it will likely come down to Shanahan and Purdy executing in the quick game and making use of their weapons over the middle of the field. A key matchup in this game will thereby be how the 49ers OL holds up - they have struggled in recent weeks but if they can keep pressure off Purdy then it will go a long way to securing victory. 

Another key matchup will be McCaffrey and Kittle vs Bucs LB Devin White, who has struggled all season. I expect to see Shanahan dial up plays to isolate White 1-on-1 and try and take advantage of the favourable matchup against the 49ers weapons. 

On defense, the Bucs biggest issue is their OL which is banged up and struggling to create holes for their run game or give Brady time to hurt teams downfield. Obviously with Brady getting rid of the ball as fast as he does this hasn't necessarily translated to a lot of sacks, but it does open up opportunities for the 49ers DL to dominate the game if the 49ers back 7 can make Brady hesitate to pull the trigger even for a moment. A big question mark, however, is whether Bosa will be ready to go after missing practice all week, and if he can go how effective he can be. If Bosa is fit and able to go then the matchup against the Bucs OTs looks like a good opportunity for him to add to his NFL leading sack total. 

Overall, despite being Purdy's first start, I feel this is a game the 49ers should win so long as Purdy is given time by the OL and is not overawed by the moment. 

One big concern I have for this game, aside from how Purdy will fare in his first start, is the looming Thursday night game against the division rival Seahawks, which depending on results could be a game to decide the division lead. It is important the 49ers don't look past the Bucs to make sure they maintain their division lead ahead of the Seahawks contest.