By Scooter_McG
The 49ers will look to continue their recent rich vein of form this Sunday as they host the Andy Dalton led 4W-7L New Orleans Saints.
Coming off the back of three straight wins to get their season back on track, the 6W-4L 49ers find themselves leading the NFC West and once again being talked about as one of the most dangerous teams in the NFL. If they play the way they have done the past three games, especially in the second half of the last three games, the 49ers should be too good for this struggling Saints team. Bookmakers agree, with the 49ers currently a 9 point favourite.
But it would be a mistake to think this game will be a cakewalk. The Saints had a confidence-boosting win against the Rams last week and they had a bevy of big name players return to practice this week after missing time through injury. This includes DEs Cam Jordan and Marcus Davenport; Jordan in particular will provide a big challenge for Mike McGlinchey and that matchup could be a key one to allowing Jimmy Garoppolo the same sort of time in the pocket he has enjoyed in recent weeks. I expect to see the 49ers chipping Jordan throughout the game with a TE or RB to give McGlinchey a bit of help.
Despite their record, the Saints have the 10th ranked offense (in terms of yards) and 12th ranked defense (in terms of yards allowed) in the NFL, as well as 7th ranked pass defense (again, in terms of yards allowed). The defensive ranking is especially noteworthy given the Saints are one of the teams that hasn't had their bye yet.
The issue for the Saints hasn't been moving the ball nor stopping opponents from moving the ball - their issue has been turnovers. Both in terms of giving them up and in terms of not taking them away. They rank 30th in terms of giveaways and 31st in terms of takeaways (including just two intercepts on the season). The 49ers should expect to have a few opportunities this game to generate some turnovers on defense while a key reason for the 49ers recent run of form has been their ball protection, suggesting the Saints may have a hard time getting any of their own. Winning the turnover battle should be one of the main aims for the 49ers in this game and would go a long way to winning the contest.
Offensively, the 49ers game plan shouldn't be too different to last week. Leaning on the running game and the short passing game will be the most likely avenue for success given the strength of the Saints defense is shutting down the passing game and getting after the QB. Despite their lofty defensive ranking, they are giving up 4.6 yards per carry (23rd in the NFL). If the Saints set their stall to stop the run, as teams have been doing in recent weeks, the versatility of McCaffrey and Deebo to be used on quick dump-offs and screens as an extension of the running game can come into play like it did last week. If the 49ers can avoid taking negative plays and giving the ball away, the offense should have enough firepower to keep the sticks moving and put up some points.
Defensively, there are three main players the 49ers need to be wary of. Alvin Kamara is always a threat whether it be in the running game or passing game. Fred Warner and company will need to be on their game to make sure Kamara doesn't hurt them. Taysom Hill has been seeing the field a little more in recent weeks and has been a spark for the offense, averaging 7.6 yards per carry. When he enters the game it will be important that the DL maintains discipline, is aware of the threat he brings as a runner and prevents easy running lanes for him. And rookie WR Chris Olave has been excellent this year, posing a constant threat to teams with his speed and smooth route running. The 49ers DBs will need to be wary of his ability to get behind them and make sure they don't allow any easy explosive plays to get the Saints offense rolling.
But the key on offense will be generating pressure on Andy Dalton to make him uncomfortable in the pocket. As outlined earlier, the Saints have had issues with turnovers this season. Jameis Winston was the biggest culprit (no surprise there), but Dalton has had his own struggles too averaging just under one intercept per game. Forcing Dalton into some mistakes, whether it be turnovers or just errant throws, will make this contest much easier and limit the threat of Olave.
The Saints - two of the most memorable games since the turn of the century have come against the Saints. The 2011 playoffs, who can forget the final four minutes of that game. The 2019 game was for the number one seed for the playoffs and was as wild as it gets, JG matching the great Drew Brees.
ReplyDeleteYup ignore the Saints record they are a much better team than that. The Saints defense can be run on; however, their strength is getting after the QB. The Niners O-line been improving and has a chance to make a statement this game.
The Niners need not to take this game lightly, if they do, they will lose. I am hoping the game is not as exciting as the above-mentioned games, a blowout would suit me well.
Yep. And don't forget that game in New Orleans with a BS roughing the passer call that coz us the home field advantage in the 2013 playoff. I am still.pissed off about that!
DeleteThat sums this matchup pretty succinctly, Scooter. McGlinchey played well last game. Let's see if he can stack it. The biggest threat imo is any emotional residue from MNF sapping their focus.
ReplyDeleteMcGill is now on the active roster and Turay was the casualty. I thought McGill looked good last game.
Scooter
ReplyDeleteTo your point on the O line holding up in pass protection:
* The NO pass rush led by Cameron Jordan, linebacker Demario Davis and Kaden Elliss, have recorded a sack on 8.58 percent of drop backs! They are 7th best in the NFL.
* I look for the 9er D to limit Dalton and the Saints to <20 points, while the 9ers score 30+…..
9ers 31, NO 17
Good write-up, Scooter.
ReplyDeleteWith the blitzing threat from DeMario Davis, I'd expect to see CMac in all third down situations.
Glad that Brendel has improved steadily. Mack may be regretting his retirement decision. I was listening to an interview with Joe Thomas over the off-season where Thomas said he had talked to his old teammate Mack and learned that the latter's retirement was motivated to a degree by not wanting to play with essentially a rookie QB in Lance.
I still wonder which Niner team is going to show up.
ReplyDelete