By Scooter_McG
The 49ers return to action in week 10 following the bye last week, with a home game against the 5W-3L Chargers on Sunday Night Football.
Both teams find themselves sitting in the 7th and last wild card spot in their respective conferences and needing to win to stay in the playoff spots. Both teams have also had to overcome considerable injury adversity to get to this position and both teams have dropped games many thought they should have won. The Chargers have also shown a propensity to keep games close this season and for starting slow in contests.
Where the teams differ is that, coming off the bye, the 49ers are starting to get healthy and have a number of players returning this week that missed recent games. Even so, the team will be without 3 of their 4 starting DL (Armstead, Kinlaw and Ebukam), while the devastating Achilles tear for Jason Verrett during the week will leave them a little short at CB.
The Chargers, on the other hand, will be without a large contingent of core players, including stars Joey Bosa, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Rashawn Slater and Austin Johnson. The main positive for the Chargers on the injury front is that QB Justin Herbert appears to be recovered from his injury earlier in the season.
The absence of Bosa and Johnson must be particularly concerning for the Chargers given they are giving up a league worst 5.7 yards per carry, which includes five runs of 40 or more yards on the season. The Chargers run defense is without a doubt the biggest mismatch in this contest, up against a run-oriented 49ers team that has already acclimated All-Pro Christian McCaffrey following his acquisition a few weeks ago.
The Chargers will no doubt set their stall on defense to stop the run, committing extra defenders to the box and playing aggressively downhill, to make it a game where it is Jimmy Garoppolo that has to beat them. They have to. To be honest, it's a proven formula for any team, though stopping the 49ers run game is easier said than done.
Don't be surprised then if the 49ers don't run the ball as much as you might expect against a team giving up 5.7 yards per carry on the season. Unless they are able to break off a few chunk plays on the ground early on, Shanahan has shown he is willing to put the ball in Garoppolo's hands if defenses are committing to stopping the run. I also wouldn't be surprised to see a few shot plays off play action early on in this game.
If the 49ers are able to hit those plays early this should be a fairly easy victory, but far too often when the 49ers go for the quick strike plays early in games they don't work and drives stall. So I am expecting this one to be a bit of a slugfest.
With Allen and Williams missing for the Chargers I am also expecting a large dose of Ekeler and the screen game. Teams have had success using the 49ers aggressiveness on defense against them. It took half time adjustments against the Rams in their last game to stop the bleeding, and hopefully Ryans has learned from that experience. WR Josh Palmer has also stood up in the absence of Allen this season, including getting involved in the screen game, and is another player the 49ers will need to be wary of.
A key concern for mine this week for the 49ers is along the DL. The defense has clearly missed Armstead in recent weeks, and with Kinlaw and Ebukam also out, it will once again place a lot of pressure on Bosa and the rotational players to step up. The 49ers run defense hasn't looked as good since Armstead and Kinlaw have been missing. Armstead is also one of the smartest players along the DL and does a good job sniffing out screens. It is a tough ask for the current DL to dominate a game, but they at least need to be decent and play disciplined football to not give the Chargers easy first downs.
I also fear how the team will respond following the injury to Verrett, which clearly affected the playing group. Hopefully it will galvanise the team and inspire them to greater efforts.
All in all this feels like a game the 49ers should win given how beat up the Chargers are right now. A win is important to stay in touch with the Seahawks in the race for the division.
Hope this is the game where Shanny unleashes his offense of mass destruction and keeps the Chargers guessing.
ReplyDeleteMcGill will get some more snaps but the Chargers aren't the Falcons on the ground. I agree with Scooter that the Chargers will try to screen this defense to death.
This feels like a blowout game to me. The Chargers are missing key components and the 49ers are getting healthy coming off a bye. I think they play inspired football and win big at home, setting the table for a run at a division title.
If the team doesn't beat itself with penalties, dropped passes, missed assignments, turnovers, this will be a blowout. I agree with both Scooter and Razor that the Charges will deploy lots of screens of all types and short passes, Herbert suffered a rib injury, and his deep ball is currently suspect. For the first time this year the Niners are going to put up 40+ points.
ReplyDeleteIf the Niners win out they are NFC west champs regardless of what the Hawks do.
Chargers tend to give up explosive run plays so I expect them to pay particularly attention to containing CMac which is easier said than done. They may play a lot of big nickel with Derwin James hovering near the D line on the strong side and focusing on the run game. That should help create passing opportunities.
ReplyDeleteKyle is 2-3 coming out of a bye. Niners are 0-7 in prime time games since 2020 against teams not named LA Rams (where they are 3-0). The only two things that can stop this talented offense are injuries or Kyle/Jimmy G teaming up on screw-ups. But CMac is all business, and will not allow that to happen now that he has finally found a home with a team with a winning culture.
Niners will cruise to a victory after their usual quick start followed by some offensive stagnation in the middle of the game. The D will play a solid game.
Niners cover the spread.