By Scooter_McG
The 2022 NFL season proper is upon us! The 49ers travel to Chicago in week 1 to take on a Bears team looking to start strong under new head coach Matt Eberflus.
The headline matchup for this game is all about the two second year QBs - Lance and Fields - and how they will lead their respective teams. Of the two, Lance heads into the game with the perception of more pressure on his shoulders courtesy of the draft capital involved in his selection, the 49ers passing on Fields, and the 49ers expectations for 2022. However, Fields will likely be the player that is asked to carry his team more both in this game and in this season, with the supporting cast around Lance a lot stronger. How both players respond to the pressure will go a long way to determining the outcome of this game.
Making life a little more difficult for Lance and the 49ers, it looks like the groin injury George Kittle picked up earlier in the week will keep him out of week 1, and potentially longer. Aside from the impact this has in terms of taking a weapon away in the passing game, Kittle has proven to be a key cog in the success of the running game in recent seasons. However, it should be noted that in past seasons the run game has been heavily reliant on off tackle runs in the outside zone scheme, where elite perimeter blocking is paramount, and it appears the team will focus more heavily on running between the tackles in 2022. Regardless, it will be vital that the 49ers find a way to get the run game going despite Kittle's absence.
Here are the other key storylines I will be watching in this one:
- What does the 49ers offense look like in week 1? The past few years have seen some wrinkles, but overarchingly the offense has remained relatively similar in scheme ever since Shanahan took over. During pre-season it still looked quite similar, but with a little more of a mix of gap and zone in the running schemes. But with Trey Lance now at QB, and the OL and RBs seemingly geared more towards a combination of gap and zone, I'm looking forward to seeing how Shanahan's offense will evolve in 2022. I can't help but think back to how the Washington offense in 2012 was tailored to RGIII's skill set, and I would be somewhat surprised if Shanahan doesn't look to mold the 2022 49ers offense to accentuate Lance's skills.
- Can the 49ers DL get Fields off his game? Justin Fields has already stated he wants to have a big game against the 49ers to prove a point after Shanahan and co passed on him in last years draft. He was one of the stars of pre-season - for whatever that is worth - and expectations are growing for the young signal caller. However, if there is one area he has consistently struggled so far in his young career it is pocket presence. The Bears OL looks very shaky and the 49ers DL will be poised for a big game. If they are able to generate consistent pressure on Fields it should go a long way to securing victory.
- How does the secondary look without Ward and Tartt? Over the past few years the tale of the 49ers secondary has been simple - without at least one of Ward or Tartt at the back the defense has fallen to pieces. When both were playing, the 49ers defense often dominated. With Tartt a FA and Ward on IR, the 49ers will be without both players to start 2022. The hope will be that a fully healthy DL and LB group, along with an upgraded CB group, will make up for the losses at the back. But all it takes is for the safeties to miss a couple of assignments to give the Bears some easy scores and keep the game interesting.
- With a new HC at the Bears, will the 49ers be properly prepared for what the Bears throw at them? This is always the risk against teams with a new coaching staff - there is less film out there to help prepare for their tendencies. I wouldn't be surprised if the Bears look to try some trick shots and shutting those down will be important to avoid giving the Bears some easy points.
I can't wait for this one, and hopefully the 49ers are able to start the season with a roads victory.
Very nice write up, Scooter.
ReplyDeleteWhile I put a few $$ on the Niners to cover the spread, I expect this game to be closer than if it was played in November with Niners' O line and safety tandem lacking experience playing together.
Eberflus' defensive play calls on the base downs tend to keep it simple with a split safety look. On third down, however, Eberflus' D gets more aggressive and deceptive, going from zone to man half the time and blitzing a third of the time, esp. with his LBs. Got Jimmy G to throw a couple of INTS against the Colts in last October's slopfest, IIRC. So Kyle will likely focus on success in first two downs to keep third down manageable.
Every time I've heard Kyle talk about his RG3 days, he did not ever sound enthusiastic about having to change his playbook to accommodate a QB who had never played from under center, let along turn his back to the D. Sure he, like every other coach with a mobile QB, will call zone read plays. But, as you have observed, Kyle sticks to his MO (e.g., starting off by probing the D with outside zone runs and settling for what the D will give), and I think he will do the same on Sunday.
Yesterday's game was very interesting to me to see how Ken Dorsey has incorporated some of Kyle's plays in patiently exploiting open spaces in Rams' zone D. Allen looked like Brady in knowing exactly where to go with the ball and whom to target. If Lance can be 80% Allen, Niners will win multiple Super Bowls with this regime....
"(e.g., starting off by probing the D with outside zone runs and settling for what the D will give)"
DeletePart of that probing will be looking at what the 8th man in the box is going to do. Is he going to cover Lance or will he be the rover man in the box. That is one component that Lance brings to the table making that 8th man account for Lance.
Agree.
DeleteAs Steve Young likes to say "the middle is always open". With LBs and SS creeping towards the LoS, Lance should find the middle more open than Jimmy G ever did.
My lasting memory of Jimmy G will be of him threading the needle on throws into incredibly small windows over the middlle.
Thanks Mood.
DeleteI also don't think Shanahan will completely change his playbook. But I do expect we will see some differences based around utilizing Lance's skillset.
Yes, I absolutely expect Kyle to leverage Lance's mobility in play-calls ranging from moving the pocket, half boot and bootlegs to some designed runs.
DeleteAside from the deep throws, the other two throws where I expect Lance to do better than Jimmy G is those outside the numbers and throws on the move.
Agreed.
DeleteKyle will not change his offense, but Trey's presence alone should hold back side pursuit for a beat. Additionally, it should make defenses stick to zone defenses and give him more defined reads as most will not want to turn their backs to a qb that moves so well.
These aspects should also help Kyle as it will be harder to show exotic looks as Coordinators will want to simplify their coverages to keep plays in front of them.
Scooter
ReplyDelete* "What does the 49ers offense look like in week1?
* The 9ers offense will be determined by the IOL opening a lane
for the RB's to run in. TW and Glinch are healthy, so it depends on the 3 B's doing their job! Banks and Burford should be adequate. The question, IMO, is Brendel doing his.....TBD
* Can the 49ers DL get Fields off his game?
* In a word, YES! If they maintain their lanes and don't let him get
outside. I look for both Bosa and Armstead to have big games.
* Looking forward to seeing if Ebukam and Jackson step up.
* How does the secondary look without Ward and Tartt? TBD!
* I believe Ryans will have the D ready for any trick plays.
* We'll see if Hufanga and Moore are up to the challenge.
Looks like I forgot to click on my Google account for above comment.
DeleteScooter
ReplyDelete* On a couple of occasions I’ve posted Rams QB Matthew Stafford is experiencing “bad tendinitis” in his right elbow.
He didn’t throw the ball in the off season, or OTA. And as far as I know, has not played a down in pre season!
* Stafford fell apart in the second. He finished the game with 240 passing yards on 29 of 41 completed passes. He also 3 three INT’s and could’t move the ball deep down the field. Two of those picks came in the second half.
QUESTION: In your opinion, do you believe Stafford’s right elbow is a problem with tendinitis?
Rams should be very concerned about Stafford's elbow imo.
DeleteAll good points Scooter, on offense I will be looking at the B's, I don't expect much pass protection, but I do expect the run game to be working. On the defense, I will be paying attention to my bold prediction Drake Jackson - defensive rookie of the year. Kinlaw is another one that I will keep an eye on.
ReplyDeleteI expect Jackson to get his first sack tomorrow.
DeleteRight on point, Scooter. The 49ers have been built over the past several years with an eye towards building a roster that can keep that Super Bowl window open for the next 3 years. I expect this game to unfold much like last years opener without the end game drama.
ReplyDeleteForgot to sign in.
DeletePrediction time, SF wins 28-13.
ReplyDeleteMy one question is will SF's Oline allow SF's run game to work?
If they do well in the run game then almost everything else should fall into place. The play action should hold off the pass rush in most cases were it is not an obvious passing situation and the boot action should hold back pursuit from the backside.