Monday, April 4, 2022

Scooter's Day 3 Prospects to Know - Defense

By Scooter_McG

I've gone through some day 3 offensive prospects that may be of interest to the 49ers. Now it is time to turn our attention to potential day 3 defensive prospects. Before we get started, it is worth noting that razor also mentioned a couple of potential day 3 defensive prospects in a comment on my previous post - Adam Anderson, James Houston and Derion Kendrick. I've not included them in this list and will let razor discuss them further should he be inclined. 😀


Alex Wright, DE, UAB. Wright is a traits-based prospect sporting a tall and powerful frame (6'5", 271 lbs, 34" arms) and good athleticism, agility and burst for his size. He currently "wins" primarily based on his natural length, power and athleticism alone, as he is raw and under-developed in terms of technique and pass rush plan. But even without great technique he was very productive as a pass rusher in college, consistently generating pressure on the QB.  

His physical traits give Wright a chance to be good NFL player, and he would seem to fit the type of long, powerful DL that the 49ers and Kocurek covet. But Wright will need to be coached up on the intracacies of DL play in order to unlock that potential, which is where a coach like Kocurek could be perfect. And while it doesn't always mean anything, it appears there is interest there from the 49ers - they met with him at the combine and are believed to be meeting virtually with him as well. As big and powerful as he already is, there is also considerable room for him to add muscle throughout his frame to pack an even greater punch. 

If you were looking for a pro comparison for Wright I would say Preston Smith, not just because they had the exact same measurements in terms of height, weight and arm length at the combine, but because Wright has a very similar skillset to Smith who has flourished as a stand-up DE/OLB that can also move around the line. So if he is that good, why is he being considered a day 3 prospect you may ask? Well, honestly, part of his issue is that he got hurt at the combine during the bench press and has been unable to work out for scouts as a result. Another issue is he doesn't come from a big school, and unlike other similar big, powerful edge prospects from smaller schools such as Marcus Davenport and Payton Turner in recent years, as a junior Wright wasn't able to demonstrate his skills at any all star games to boost his draft stock (notably, both Davenport and Turner leveraged their strong Senior Bowl and combine performances into first round draft selections).  

In many respects Wright is similar to another potential day 3 prospect Dominque Robinson, who razor has mentioned previously - a raw, moldable piece of clay that has all the physical tools you look for at the position. However, Robinson has benefitted from participating in the Senior Bowl and completing a workout at the combine, which has elevated his stock. Wright is currently projected to go after Robinson and could be a steal as a result.   


Eric Johnson, DT, Missouri State. The 49ers love explosive, gap penetrating DL and Johnson fits the mold. While he is a small school prospect, he has the size (6'4", 300 lbs) and athletic traits (4.86s 40, 27.5" vertical, 8'11" broad, 4.66s shuttle) teams look for. Johnson was a little known prospect until he dominated the NFLPA Bowl during both practices and the game with his quickness and power. His performance was enough to earn him an invite to the Senior Bowl where he once again impressed with his quickness, physicality and power. His showing in these all star events now has him firmly on the map as a draftable prospect and also suggest he has the traits to be a successful pro DT in the hands of a good DL coach (like Kocurek). 


Kalia Davis, DT, Central Florida. Davis is another late round DT option that provides considerable upside as a quick twitch, gap penetrating disrupter in the interior. He is on the smaller side at 6'1", 302 lbs, but he has proven to be a highly disruptive player throughout his time at UCF with a quick get off and agility to win the snap early and cause offensive lineman problems 1-on-1.  

Due to his size Davis can struggle holding up against the run and against double teams, but with the way the 49ers like to employ their DTs as primarily gap penetrators this weakness can be mitigated to some degree (similar to Kevin Givens). The larger concern for Davis, and one of the key reasons he is projected to be a late day 3 pick, is he has not played much football the past two years - in 2020 he opted out due to COVID while last season he only played five games before tearing his ACL in October. As a result of that injury Davis has not been able to do any testing during the pre-draft process and may not be ready to contribute much as a rookie (and could effectively need to red-shirt his rookie season). 


Tre Sterling, S, Oklahoma State. Sterling was on the fast track to being a day 2 pick following strong 2019 and 2020 seasons which saw him ranked as one of the top safeties over those seasons by PFF, scoring high in both coverage and run defense. In 2020 he had 74 tackles, 11 TFL, 0.5 sack, 2 INTs (1 for a TD) and 4 passes defensed. However, a wrist injury curtailed his 2021 season and as a result Sterling is now flying somewhat under the radar in the draft media. Sterling has decent size (5'11", 206 lbs) and athleticism (4.6s 40, 36.5" vertical, 4.11s shuttle) and offers considerable versatility as a DB, lining up at FS, SS and the slot during his time with the Cowboys. He sounds like exactly the type of DB the 49ers prefer, and based on current draft projections will likely be there in the 4th/ 5th round. 


Damarri Mathis, CB, Pittsburgh. When it comes to drafting players in the later rounds it is often a case of betting on athletic traits over production and technique, and hoping that with coaching those athletic traits can be maximised. Sometimes, for whatever reason, a guy lasts to those later rounds that offers both high end athleticism and decent production/ technique, and you are simply left scratching your head as to why the player doesn't get more attention. In my opinion, that is the case with Mathis. The only thing I can put it down to is a shoulder injury in 2020 that cost him the season and pushed him off the radar for a lot of media.

Mathis played mostly on the outside at Pitt, and at 5'11", 198 lbs, Mathis has the size to handle those duties in the pros. At his pro day he showed he also has the athleticism to match, running a 4.39s 40 while posting a 43.5" vertical and 11'1" broad. But Mathis has also demonstrated the ability to move inside and offers nice versatility as a result.  

He isn't the most technically refined CB prospect, but there is a lot to like about how he plays. He is good in press and with his athleticism has the recovery speed if he gets beat. He is also physical and generally keeps tight coverage. 2019 was his best season in college, allowing just 21 receptions on 57 targets (36.8% completion percentage), ranking him 4th in the nation in terms of completion percent allowed. As outlined above, 2020 was a lot season due to injury, but he returned to the starting lineup in 2021 where he snagged two INTs and displayed a nice presence in run support (ranked 9th by PFF in run defense for all CBs). 

It's possible Mathis doesn't last until day 3 given his pro day results will have put him back on teams radars and he has the film to back it up, but based on current projections he is expected to still be there round 4/ 5 and at that point would be a very nice pick up for the 49ers (or any team).

 

Dallis Flowers, CB, Pitt State. For my last day 3 defensive prospect I will include another small school player - CB Dallis Flowers from Pitt State. As with any small school player looking to get the attention of the NFL, Flowers impresses with good size and athleticism for the position, measuring at around 6'1" and 195 lbs with a 4.43s 40 (and 1.47s 10 yard split), 10'11" broad, 4.34s shuttle and 6.98s 3-cone. Flowers uses his length and athleticism well to stay in phase with receivers and close windows, and does an excellent job locating the ball in the air to make a play on it (which was demonstrated by his 3 INTs and 6 PBUs last season despite teams mostly avoiding his coverage). Flowers also uses his length well at the line of scrimmage to disrupt receivers in press coverage. He showed that he was able to translate his talents to higher levels of competition as he performed well in the East-West Shrine practices.  

Flowers abilities as a CB are only part of the story though. He is an excellent return man, primarily on kick returns though he also has experience fielding punts. In 2021 he averaged 33.7 yards per kick return with 2 TDs, while he also previously broke John Brown's kick return record while at Grand View with 38.1 yards per return in 2019. It is in this capacity that Flowers can make an immediate impact as a rookie while he develops as a CB. Flowers is an older prospect at 24 years old, and will be 25 years old his rookie season, but there is a lot to like about him as a late day 3 developmental prospect with significant special teams value.

66 comments:

  1. Nice list Scooter. I'd throw Eric Johnson, DL, Missouri State into the mix as well. 3t or 4i he's got the pop in the hands you want to see, along with length and size.

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  2. N'Keal Harry is probably going to be released. BB made a big mistake passing on Samuel for him.

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    1. Wouldn't be surprised if the 49ers sniff around on Harry. Shanahan is believed to have actually wanted him over Deebo if he had fallen to the 49ers.

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    2. Bet he doesn't go around advertising that Scooter!

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    3. Scooter, you wanna throw BB one of those 6th round compensatory picks for Harry?

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  3. Scooter, did you see the 49ers are having a pre-draft meeting with Samori Toure? They're looking for a big slot wide receiver apparently.

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    1. Looks like a Kendrick Bourne type to me.

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    2. I would have thought they needed a legit deep threat. Maybe they're planning on double dipping at the position.

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    3. They only really have 4 guys that are locks to make the roster atm. I imagine Toure may be a 7th or priority FA they could take a swing on and maybe stash on the PS.

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    4. You really think he goes that late? I was thinking he was a 4th or maybe 5th rounder.

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    5. Yeah, I think he's a late round draft pick. His pro day numbers were better than I expected tbh - while he was a vertical guy in college I didn't think he was that fast). Maybe they do see him as something of a deep threat.

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  4. Thanks for the info. Draft is coming up, for this guy I will be glad when its over. I am with Shanny, the draft should come before FA.

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    1. The draft for me takes a backseat to the regular season and that's it. If I could get it earlier I'd jump on it! I'll cast my vote with you and Shanny.

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    2. Yeah, FA and draft season is like the second NFL season for me!

      I actually don't mind having the draft where it is when the 49ers go deep into the playoffs. When the 49ers don't make the playoffs though it can feel like it drags forever.

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    3. Good point Scooter. We got spoiled this year.

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  5. Eagles will be sending the 16th, 19th, and 194th picks in this year’s draft to the Saints for the 18th, 101st, and 237th picks as well as a 2023 first-round pick and a 2024 second-round pick.

    Is it just me or did the Saints just get fleeced?

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    1. Its a pretty even trade in my book. It basically works out as the Saints get a second selection in the first round by giving up a future 1st and 2nd.

      I think this gives the Saints the leeway to draft a QB in round 1 to develop while also adding either an OT or WR than should be able to step in immediately.

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    2. I'm not gonna lie. It's a hard trade for me to follow but I still don't think I like it if I'm the Saints. They better hope like hell they have a winning season or the Eagles will end up with possibly a top 10 pick.

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  6. I know its not going to happen as he will be gone before the 49ers pick, and tbh that's probably a good thing as they have bigger needs, but if there is one guy in this draft that I genuinely think would be sensational with the 49ers it is Breece Hall. Tailor made for this offense imo.

    And I also think he would provide the biggest boost for Trey Lance of any prospect in 2022. A bellcow back with the explosiveness to score from anywhere, consistently get yards, great in the red zone and good as a receiver. The offense could lean on Hall while Lance develops, and make things easier for Lance downfield.

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    1. We haven't got to see Sermon yet, and I have a feeling they had a plan to pair him with Lance.

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    2. I know. And obviously Mitchell was very good last year. It isn't a need by any stretch.

      But I really think Hall would be special in this offense.

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    3. I expect he'll go at the top of round 2.

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  7. While pre-draft meetings with individual players don't necessarily mean much, you can get a pretty good idea as to the positions a team is focusing on based on position groups of players they speak to.

    If I was a betting man I would say the 49ers will be drafting a DE day 2. They have met with a lot of DEs either expected to be day 2 picks or on the periphery of day 2.

    Outside of that... anybody's guess. Probably a CB and WR at some point as they have met a few, but the guys they've met are all over the draft board and mostly late day 3/ priority free agent types.

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    1. I'm thinking Edge, Center, S with their first three picks in that order.

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    2. I was thinking center and safety the other way around.

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    3. That's how my mock is currently shaping up.

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    4. I think its either WR or CB round 4, assuming day 2 go as I expect.

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  8. Kemoko Turay paid a visit to the 49ers HQ. Seems like I just scouted him. He's got talent but the knock on him coming out was staying healthy. He could excel in Kocurek's system as a SPR.

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    1. Sign him. Big fan of him coming out of college. Injuries a major concern, so sign him to an incentive-based contract.

      Was PFF's highest graded edge player in 2019 prior to his ankle injury. 14th highest pressure rate among DT/DEs in the NFL in 2021 based on SIS data (min. 100 pass rushes).

      https://www.sisdatahub.com/leaderboards/DE

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    2. Kid's smart too given he made Kocurek his first visit. Mama didn't raise no fool.

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    3. If they do sign him, I don't think that changes their draft strategy. I imagine he would also be signed on a 1-year deal, meaning all DE's bar Bosa would still be off contract at season's end.

      But... it does make me wonder what they do with Ebukam if they sign Turay. Releasing Ebukam is a pretty easy way to free up $6.5M.

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    4. No it won't change the strategy.

      A lot easier than another restructure.

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    5. https://www.nfl.com/prospects/kemoko-turay/32005455-5201-2037-a567-d712db2228ee

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    6. Here are some of Turay's stats from 2021:
      Pressures: 22
      Sacks: 5.5 (career-high)
      Pressure Win %: 15.4 (higher than Clowney, Dunlap)
      Pass-Rushing Productivity: 8.6 (13th in NFL)

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  9. I can't believe Whitney Mercilus retired. What a flash in the pan!

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    1. You showed below, but we will be saying the same about Clowney. Dude was a slightly more talented version of Jamarcus Russell on the defensive side in that Clowney made his career off of (really) one free hit on a rb 100lbs & 1 foot smaller than him, much in the way that JaMarcus got his 1st overall pick from the bowl game performance against ND. Granted JC has had a more productive career, but that can be expected at a position where you can platoon or be a 3rd down guy and not have to be the 1 and only starter.

      We will look back on JC and say the same thing, the dude was a flash in the pan, he never lived up to being the 1st overall pick. You're supposed to be a sack specialist and in 8 seasons, more than half of which playing on a team w/JJ Watt (albeit injuries didn't help either) and 1 season playing with Myles Garrett, you have yet to eclipse 10 sacks in any season...thats not good.

      Garrett, on the other hand, has 58 sacks in his 5 year career and only 1 season (his rookie) with less than 10. MG has 17.5 more sacks in a career half as long as JCs'.

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  10. Pass-Rush Winning Percentage:

    Nick Bosa, 15%
    Jadeveon Clowney, 13.9%
    Kemoko Turay, 13.4%

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  11. Welcome aboard Marcus Johnson:

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1512122541040492555

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    1. If you are going to bring in training camp depth, msy as well be guys that at least have a chance if sticking. Johnson has proven he can make a 53 man roster and contribute.

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    1. I think he did that because he knew you'd have a coronary. Go spill your poison somewhere else, will you?

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  13. Offer Deebo $21.5 million APY take it or it's a trade to the Jets!

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    1. They'll figure something out.

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    2. He hasn't been consistent enough to make him the highest paid if that's what he's angling for. Not to mention he's never going to be available for every game due to his physicality. Just like Kittle. You gotta account for those things when drawing up this contract.

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  14. I'll take the Jets #10+#38 while we send back #61 for Deebo.

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    1. Thibodeaux could free fall right into our laps.

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    2. Yup I would do that trade. Deebo is no longer a Niner in my book. Even if he sign's he will be just another come and go type player.

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    3. Can't blame a player for wanting to get paid. If you are writing him off just for negotiating a salary that another team would be willing to pay you won't have a lot of 49ers players left to root for.

      I wouldn't take that trade for Deebo, razor. Not unless it becomes crystal clear that he no longer wants to be a 49er. And even then... should be wanting to get more than that. Trading star players rarely works out well for the team that trades them away.

      I mean, giving Deebo a similar contract to Davante Adams wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. It is really a 3 year deal worth $67.5M. But by tacking on two voidable years at ridiculous salary levels they made Adams look like he is getting nearly $30M per annum.

      Hill was kind of similar - in that case a 4 year deal worth around $24M per annum that is made to look like a $30M per year deal by tacking on a nearly $45M salary in the last year.

      Neither Adams or Hill will see those last years.

      The main thing will be negotiating around guaranteed money. I can see that being the real sticking point.

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    4. No problem with his salary demands he is probably worth it, problem is when he deletes all 49er stuff on his account. Doesn't impress me at all. Is why I support the team and not individuals to include the coaches.

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    5. Just part of the negotiation.

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    6. No need for that, I doubt it influences anything. He deserves to be paid and if the Niners cannot do it, so be it, then take it down. So, if the Niners pay the guy and they should and he puts all that stuff back on his account...nah...doesn't work for me.

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    7. Buckner priced himself off the team...

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    8. Yeah, for me it doesn't mean anything either way. The players are just commodities these days. I find it hard to criticise players for what can be perceived as a "lack of loyalty" in contract negotiations when teams don't show much loyalty to players.

      Buckner is actually a prime example of it. A great team soldier, did everything the team asked, didn't make any waves, but the team was pretty quick to dump him when they thought he was asking for too much (even though it was a figure another team was only too happy to pay).

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    9. There is only so much money, it's the trouble with so many good players they all deserve to be paid...

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    10. Absolutely. But because of the market FA creates, and restraints the cap imposes, I don't blame players for doing what it takes to get paid nor good teams for making hard decisions to move on from certain players.

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    11. It's a very interesting topic because it's a similar situation to Buckner/Armstead. Both were drafted back to back years, played the same position and had a similar talent level. One player overvalued his way to Indianapolis. Haven't missed him. Armstead has been outstanding. Enter Samuel/Aiyuk. I could very easily see history repeating itself.

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    13. It is an interesting situation. I didn't blame the team for trading Buckner, and I wouldn't blame the team for trading Deebo either. They already have a lot of players they are paying at top of the market. Bosa also needs to get paid. Can't pay everyone.

      But at the same time it is hard to replace a top level talent. And the impact top level talent makes per $ is often bigger than the sum of a couple of good veterans you may otherwise keep/ bring in. While you say the team hasn't missed Buckner, I disagree. There has been a drop off, even if the DL is still good. And the guy they drafted with the pick they got for Buckner hasn't yet shown to be more than decent (and injury prone).

      Tough situation and will be fascinating to see how it goes. Though personally I would be very surprised if they don't work something out with Deebo.

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  15. Under the radar Kevin Atkins, Fresno State Bulldogs looks like a poor mans D. J. Jones.

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  16. Scooter
    Thanks for the day three players to evaluate....And a new controversy (besides JG), for the talking heads to get us excited about(click bait)!

    Just curious what draft picks you'd expect the 9ers to get, if they did decide to move Deebo?

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