Could the 49ers Trade Deebo?

By Scooter_McG 

Before I get started, full disclosure, I expect the 49ers and Deebo Samuel to come to an agreement on a contract extension. I don't think Deebo will be traded. And I doubt any extension will be finalised until around training camp. 

But an extension for Deebo will cost a pretty penny. There have been a number of huge money contract extensions signed by big name WRs in recent weeks, with average annual values in the range of $30M. Tyreek Hill is now the highest paid non-QB in the NFL and 11th highest paid player. Davante Adams, DeAndre Hopkins and Stefon Diggs are also all in the top 25 highest paid players in the NFL. 

Outside of QBs, the only other position rounding out the top 24 top salaries in the NFL is edge - with TJ Watt, Joey Bosa, Myles Garrett, Khalil Mack and Maxx Crosby in the top 24. Which is of course relevant for the 49ers as they have another big name star due for an extension in Nick Bosa, who will likely also be in line for a contract paying around top of the market for his position (also around $30M per year). 

When you then factor in that the 49ers are already paying top or near top of the market salaries for the likes of Trent Williams (the 25th highest paid player in the NFL and highest paid OL), Fred Warner (45th highest paid player and 2nd highest paid LB), Arik Armstead (64th highest paid player), George Kittle (95th - and highest paid TE) and recently signed Charvarius Ward (133rd), not to mention still having Jimmy G and Dee Ford on the books currently, the 49ers already have a lot of money tied up in star players on high value contracts. 

Even assuming they move Jimmy G before the season starts and get rid of Dee Ford as expected, if the 49ers extend both Bosa and Deebo they will have four of the top 50 salaries in the NFL and 6 of the top 100. That would put them well above the NFL average in terms of money tied up in just a few contracts. 

There isn't anything inherently bad in that, and really speaks to the quality of player the team has added in recent years. To be a top team in the NFL you need a few top tier talent players, and those players don't come cheap once they reach their second contract. But good teams also need quality supporting players and depth. And in a salary cap constrained market it can be difficult to consistently surround the top tier players with a quality supporting cast if a significant portion of your cap space is tied up in those few.  

For teams that do put a lot of money in a handful of players it is imperative those players cosistently produce at or near the level you are paying them for, or that you get above expectation play from other areas (such as low cost but talented players on rookie contracts). That is exactly what the 49ers have gotten in recent years with the likes of Kittle, Warner, Bosa and Deebo playing at an elite level on low cost contracts, which has offset average or below average returns from some high priced players like Jimmy G, Dee Ford, Kwon Alexander and Weston Richburg (primarily due to injury for all). 

So the question then becomes - how much faith can the 49ers place on players such as Kittle, Bosa and Deebo to consistently be on the field and producing at a level comensurate with their contract? One of the elements that makes Deebo so good is the physicality he plays with, but that is also what puts him at greatest risk of not being available for large stretches of his next contract. Add to that the increased usage of Deebo in the running game, which notoriously reduces the career length of a player, and you start to wonder just how much value will you get from the money you'll need to pay Deebo? 

And how many high priced players that have had injury issues can you carry? Especially when you are currently slated to not have any first round picks this year and next to help bring in high end talent on cheap contracts. Something, of course, that could be alleviated by trading one of Deebo or Bosa.  

So while I fully expect the 49ers to get deals done for both Deebo and Bosa, if the team did decide to move on from one of Deebo and Bosa I could certainly understand the rationale. And if they did move on from one, I think Deebo is the one I would let go - in large part based on the potential injury and availability concerns. But also because I believe Shanahan has the ability to install a highly productive offense even if they were to lose Deebo. I realise what Deebo did last season was historic, and I certainly appreciate the talent he has, but realistically moving forward the 49ers offense will go as far as Lance takes them, not Deebo. Losing Bosa, however, I think would set the defense back to a greater degree. 

It's a fascinating situation for the 49ers having two star players up for contract extensions at positions that are now the highest paid in the NFL after QB. Especially given the current salary cap situation. It will be a risk no matter what decision they make.