Hi folks, welcome to Day 1 of the 2022 NFL Draft!
At the moment the 49ers aren't currently scheduled to make any picks today, so this could be the quietest day 1 of a draft for the 49ers for quite some time. But that doesn't mean it won't be rife with intrigue and speculation... and potentially some action!
Obviously there is a lot of talk around what will happen with Deebo Samuel, and whether a trade will happen. Rumours from today seem to suggest a trade could be finalised at the last minute ahead of the Jets pick at 10.
However, I doubt such a scenario would happen. The Jets would need to feel comfortable that whatever issues Deebo has with the 49ers won't bleed over to the Jets, which would require the 49ers to have agreed to allow the Jets to speak with Deebo. We've not heard any suggestions such discussions have been allowed.
But Deebo isn't the only asset the 49ers could trade today - Jimmy G remains on the roster and there is always a chance a QB needy team comes knocking. If the 49ers can move JG for a decent draft pick that would be a huge win.
And even if neither player is traded the 49ers may decide it is worth packaging some of their 9 picks to move up into the back end of round 1 if a player they really like is there... say maybe if Tyler Linderbaum falls to the late 20s. With all signs pointing to Alex Mack hanging up the boots the team could well be all in on a center such as Linderbaum.
So today could be an interesting one to follow, even if the 49ers don't end up making a pick!
What are your thoughts as to what will happen today?
8:00PM... and we are almost underway! Still no news on the Deebo to the Jets front... or anywhere else. Highly unlikely anything gets done at this point.
Let's see how Trent Baalke stuffs up the first pick.
8:10PM... and we are now officially underway!
8:18PM... and Baalke goes for the guy with the longer arms. Shocking. And the Lions then run up to the podium to make their pick - Aiden Hutchinson.
8:27PM... Texans didn't muck around either. Stingley is a bit of surprise, but rumours had been swirling he wouldn't get out of the top 5.
8:32PM... The first of the Jets pick is up... and rumour is they are taking CB Sauce Gardner. No OTs so far... and confirmed - Gardner it is.
8:40PM... It's all defense in the top 5, as Kayvon Thibodeaux goes to the Giants according to Albert Breer. And Breer has good sources, it turns out. Thibodeaux it is.
8:48PM... Panthers take Ikem Ekwonu at #6, not a QB. Could Jimmy G to the Panthers still be on the cards...?
8:54PM... and that starts a run on OTs, with the Giants taking Evan Neal at 7.
9:00PM... Drake London goes #8 to the Falcons. He was a potential candidate to replace Deebo if they traded him to the Jets.
9:06PM... The Seahags apparently tried very hard to trade back but had no takers. In the end they take OT Charles Cross. They need to upgrade the OL, so a need pick, but there is also a reason Cross is the third OT taken not first. Bosa should have some fun.
And so now comes the moment of truth... will Deebo be traded?
9:12PM... Breathe easy 49ers fans. Jets have selected Garrett Wilson at #10. Deebo remains on the 49ers roster, bar a very strange twist
9:22PM... WRs coming off the board now. Saints trade up for Chris Olave at #11. Seems like an unnecessary trade up for mine, and not a good value pick there. Then the Lions make a huge move up from 32 to 12 to take Jameson Williams. So the two Ohio State WRs go 10 and 11, then the guy that left Ohio State because he was stuck behind them goes #12.
9:34PM... The trades keep coming! Eagles move up to 13 to leapfrog the Ravens and select mammoth NT Jordan Davis. Then the Ravens take Kyle Hamilton.
9:51PM... Kenyon Green is the first interior OL to be taken, going 15 to the Texans. And in veteran WR news, there has been a trade! But not Deebo. Hollywood Brown off to the Cardinals for pick 23.
9:54PM... and the WRs keep coming off the board. Jahan Dotson goes #16 to the Commanders. I like this pick - can't help but feel if he played for Ohio State he'd have gone before Wilson and Olave. But the question is... with McLaurin up for a contract extension, is this a complementary WR or a replacement?
9:58PM... more veteran WR news... another WR traded. AJ Brown being traded to the Eagles. Strange days in the WR market.
Meanwhile, Charges select Zion Johnson. Solid pick.
10:04PM... and the Titans replace Brown with Burks. After a pretty boring first 10 picks, the teens have been pretty wild.
AJ Brown getting a 4 year, $100M deal, $57M guaranteed. The floor is now set for a Deebo deal.
10:11PM... the Saints take Trevor Penning. No QB taken in the first 19 picks, but seems like the Steelers would make sense for the first one.
10:18PM... and the Steelers do indeed go QB. Kenny Pickett is the first QB taken. Can't help but feel he's nothing more than ok.
10:25PM... the Chiefs, one of the last remaining teams with multiple first rounders and a need for a WR, have traded up to 21 to take Trent McDuffie. Then the Packers, the other remaining team with two first rounders and a need at WR, take LB Quay Walker at 22.
Deebo isn't going anywhere.
10:37PM... The Bills then trade up to select CB Kaiir Elam. Then the Cowboys take Tyler Smith. Tyler Linderbaum still on the board.
10:52PM... and there goes Linderbaum, to the Ravens. Then the Jets move up to 26 to stop Jermaine Johnson's perceived slide.
11:04PM... In keeping with the trade theme, Baalke goes up to 27 to take Devin Lloyd. They needed a LB after letting Myles Jack leave.
The Packers then take Devonte Wyatt, giving Aaron Rodgers the forks in the process.
11:13PM... big surprise pick at 29 by the Patriots, and one that impacts on the 49ers. Cole Strange has made the most of the 2022 draft process and ends up rising to pick 29.
11:19PM... the Chiefs use their second first rounder on DE George Karlaftis. Then the Bengals take Dax Hill. One more pick to go tonight.
11:30PM... and with the 32nd pick, the Vikings select S Lewis Cine. Another player that may have been of interest to the 49ers in the second round.
So that wraps up day 1 of the draft. While the 49ers didn't end up making a selection a lot happened with ramifications for the 49ers. First off, while Deebo Samuel remains on the roster, the WR market had a big shake up with AJ Brown being traded and then signed to a 4 year $100M deal with $57M guaranteed. The 49ers now have a genuine comparator contract for Deebo. But will Deebo soften his stance? And will the 49ers be willing to go that high?
There was also a big run on interior OL from pick 15 on. With uncertainty surrounding Alex Mack's future and neither OG spot locked down, this could put some pressure on the 49ers to go IOL at 61 or potentially trade up to ensure they get their man.
Safety is another position the team will likely be looking at, and picks 31 and 32 were safeties which may start a bit of a run in day 2.
All in all, while it is nice to see Deebo still on the roster, that is only a positive if the team and Deebo are able to work out their differences. Otherwise we will be looking at the trades that have been made for WRs this year and realise the 49ers may have been over valuing the position and player and missed an opportunity to help the team in 2022. It puts a lot of pressure on the 49ers to get a deal done with Deebo.
Meanwhile, the lack of action at QB works against the 49ers as it means other players at positions of interest for the 49ers are getting taken earlier than hoped.
Day 2 should be an interesting one!
Hey Scooter: What are your thoughts on the idea that a deal may be in place that would be triggered or not as the 10th pick approaches. The thought process is that nothing has leaked because:
ReplyDelete"As we’ve said repeatedly (and will nevertheless repeat), the 49ers should insist on complete secrecy until the pick they’ll be acquiring is on the clock. This avoids any possibility that the 49ers would be jumped if, for example, they end up with the 10th overall pick before the draft starts.
Cimini also suggests that the final decision may hinge on the players who are taken before the Jets are on the clock. And that may indeed be a factor. At this point, the 49ers need to think of the trade as a swap for a player not a draft pick. Once the first nine selections are made, the 49ers will know who they can get.
It really may be that simple. Regardless, complete discretion remains a key ingredient. While the deal would be done well in advance of the pick going on the clock, the 49ers should do everything they can to keep it completely quiet until then."
https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2022/04/28/report-potential-trade-of-deebo-samuel-to-the-jets-isnt-dead-yet/
What single player at #10 would suitably compensate the 49ers for the loss of Deebo? And yes, I am aware the deal would likely involve other compensation, but that player at #10 would be the main part of it if the team is waiting to see who is available there.
DeleteAs a result I don't buy that argument.
I see three scenarios: (1) the team has given up hope of extending Deebo and makes a trade regardless of who is available, (2) they get offered a king's ransom so make the trade, or (3) they believe they can salvage the situation and don't make a trade.
As for scenario 1... I feel like there would have been more movement by now if that was the case. And I don't think 2 will happen...
I guess what I was wondering about is whether you think a deal could be in place and whether or not the team could have kept it quiet. It seems like any trade scenario for 2022 draft picks would probably require some kind of deal to be in place because the acquiring team has to know how much Deebo will cost them.
DeleteYeah, if such a deal were to happen then the ground work has already been done and parameters agreed to by now. But I guess I just don't see the point in waiting to pull the trigger, for either side.
DeleteToo many moving parts not to have been leaked by now imo.
ReplyDeleteThis is George. My interface doesn't seem to allow me to use my avatar anymore. Pisser.
DeleteAgreed George.
DeleteWe may not have a 1st rounder but it's still exciting to witness the intrigue unravel. There's no way in hell a deal could be in place without Deebo getting a physical, hammering out a new contract, and determining how he would be used within the recent timeframe.
ReplyDeleteThat's an awfully complicated deal to get done that fast.
DeleteExactly.
DeleteWhether Deebo stays or Deebo goes it will never be the same.
ReplyDeleteFor the majority of fans, if Deebo is extended their displeasure will be gone as soon as he starts making plays again.
DeleteBaalke strikes again!
ReplyDeleteRight? Big risk. I don't expect Baalke to be at the Jags in 2023.
DeleteI didn't see Walker win one on one enough off the edge to believe he's going to do it in the NFL. I agree Baalke will not be in Jacksonville in 2023.
DeleteYeah, I don't like it.
DeleteCraziest 1st round that I can remember if you're not counting the gas mask debacle.
ReplyDeleteSure is. So many trades. Massive run on WRs, which I suspect is strongly linked to the crazy money being spent this offseason at the position making a rookie contract so much more valuable.
DeleteYea, it's an overreaction if you ask me. Is wr gonna be the new rb position where you recycle through them every 4th year?
DeleteIf it is, then the contracts currently being given out to the WRs are going to be albatross deals.
DeleteEssentially what you're paying for if you're the 49ers is Deebo's intangibles and familiarty/continuity/growth with your franchise quarterback. I think that's the smarter road to go.
DeleteI don't think WRs are going to become the next RBs
DeleteTennessee has one of if not the highest cap hit at the quarterback position this year. You have to wonder if not for that they might have kept Brown.
DeleteThis is where it could get interesting if the 49ers decide to move up for Linderbaum to have that valuable 5th year option.
ReplyDeleteThere goes that idea.
DeleteHaha, good pick by Baltimore.
DeleteWe'll be taking a center in round 3.
ReplyDelete61 wouldn't shock me either.
DeleteStrange going 29 makes waiting to round 3 more of a risk, if Mack does indeed retire.
DeleteCouldn't they just grab Parham or Fortner? Surely one of 'em will be there.
DeleteIf not they must believe Brunskill or perhaps Tretter is the one.
DeleteA lot of IOL went tonight. That's a problem for the 49ers heading into day 2.
DeleteIf I'm Lynch I trade up near the top of round 3 for Jurgens.
DeleteOr like you said they could take him at #61. I think he'll be there.
DeleteWell, after the new league year arrived, and Jimmy Garoppolo was somehow still on the 49ers payroll, I came to the conclusion that the 49ers were clearly planning to take a developmental approach to their 2022 offseason (punt), rather than acting like a team that feels like it might be only one aggressive offseason away from winning their 6th Lombardi Trophy.
ReplyDeleteAnd sure enough, John Lynch basically came right out and said as much at Monday's press conference, when asked by reporters to respond to the common critique of their current offseason so far, "that the team hasn't accomplished it's main objectives - "that they haven't extended Deebo, and they haven't created $25 million in cap space by trading Jimmy G and therefore they haven't been able to use that cap space, and therefore they are clearly having a subpar offseason (so far), in terms of their goals?"
John's Lynch's answer to this question was astonishing to me, and actually quite telling as he said quote: "We had a plan, we've been very aggressive, top five, top ten team in terms of cash. And we've had the pedal down for five years, so it was time to probably, on the whole, take a step back in terms of the amount of cash and cap we were spending. And so that was planned all along."
My gosh, You have to love John Lynch's honesty! Even if the plan going into the offseason was to take more of a developmental approach, rather than acting like a team that feels that it my be one aggressive offseason away from winning a Super Bowl, don't ever come out and say it out loud! Kyle Shanahan treats fans like they are stupid, but John, he's candid to a fault.
It should be no surprise then that management has decided to dig their heels in on Deebo, instead of doing what other teams are doing with their coveted WR's who are due new blockbuster contracts. It's an interesting strategy, that's for sure, as this could certainly get uglier, and drag into the regular season, in which case it's yet another setback in terms of their offseason plans. It's not conducive to putting the best team possible around Trey Lance for his inaugural season, and even if they do end up trading him at some point, they won't be able to use the trade compensation until 2023, dealing yet another blow to their 2022 season.
Could be a mini run on qb's and edge rushers in round 2.
ReplyDeleteThe most fascinating part of the draft for me was how the Lions GM punked Roseman for Williams.
ReplyDeleteEarlier in the night, Ian Rapoport reported that the New York Jets reportedly offered the tenth pick and a pick swap in exchange for Samuel, which didn't materialize prior to the Jets selecting Garrett Wilson. I wonder if it was my original offer of #10+#38-#61? Lynch was smart to refuse that lowball offer, lol!
ReplyDeleteThat would have been the highest return of any of the trades made this year for a WR. It's only smart if they can get a deal done with Deebo... and Deebo lives up to that contract.
DeleteLynch doesn't impress me as someone that has a word like can't in his lexicon. In his mind he knows or has supreme confidence in his ability to find an answer to the problem and get a deal done at the proper time. I really don't think it was anything about anything other than $$$, and once Brown's deal got done; the 49ers and Deebo's agent had a benchmark to work from.
DeleteI hope you're right. I actually feel this is about more than money. If it's just money then Deebo either has one fragile ego or no understanding of how negotiations work.
DeleteHis agent is in his ear too much. All three of the agents WRS are in the same boat, dudes only 3 years in the league and without Hill/Adams/Diggs numbers. Deebo had one great year, but an injury 2nd and a ok rookie. AJ had two good first years then an injury 3rd and DK had a good first and third and a better 2nd (1300).
DeleteI don't see deebo getting anymore than what AJ got, and even what AJ got is misleading. Deebo will be around 20ish a year and that is more than adequate for his performance so far. Give another 3 years of this lasts performance and he's getting #1 wr money. As it is now, deebo is probably a top 10ish we but he ain't top 5 so his money should be slotted in that 5-10 range. His agent knows this and has to be real with him and say you aren't getting Adams/diggs/hill money as they are guys above him in performance and longevity.
Deebo did himself no favors in the way he went about his contract negotiations and as a result of AJ Brown's transaction and new deal, Deebo Samuel has probably lost any hope of negotiating a new deal similar to Tyreek Hill's. There are a remarkable number of similarities between Deebo and AJ, including similar skill sets, but Brown was the more highly recruited player coming out of HS, and Brown was the more decorated wideout coming out of the SEC. Both players went in the 2nd round, and while I think Deebo went 15 spots ahead of AJ, and is, in my opinion, the more valuable NFL offensive football player due to his versatility, and fit within Kyle Shanahan's system, AJ Brown is probably the better pure WR, and unfortunately for Deebo, that's the way of life in the NFL.
DeleteI think the 49ers handled this situation correctly. The mistake Deebo made was his attempting to strong-arming the 49ers FO, without giving them a way out of this mess without looking weak, and appearing to have completely capitulated to their star player's demands. I don't know why Deebo took things as far as he did, as quickly as he did, but I think the great irony in all of this is that Deebo's competitive nature, which is one of his greatest qualities as a football player, is also probably the very thing that has now damaged his NFL image, and his standing among the Niners' fan base.
The bottom line is that Deebo Samuel is a phenomenal offensive weapon, and he is probably my favorite player to watch because of his unique play style, and the way he impacts a football game and strikes fear on opposing defenses. As a franchise player, I personally think Deebo is valuable of a non-quarterback that there is in the NFL, but what Deebo doesn't seem to understand is that NFL contract negotiations don't work that way. Deebo Samuel may be a unicorn, but his WR/RB hybrid skillset, as opposed to Brown's more traditional WR skill set, doesn't necessarily work in Deebo's favor. While I think Deebo probably deserves to be a little bit more than AJ Brown on an annual basis, Deebo needs to come to terms with the fact that the guaranteed portion of his new deal should be, AT BEST, in the exact same neighborhood as his draft buddy, training partner, and closest NFL comp - AJ Brown's.
Special thanks goes out to Scooter for being such a good host tonight. Good night and see you tomorrow!
ReplyDeleteWelcome!
DeleteSome interesting selections in the 1st round.
ReplyDeleteIf we get a harsh reaction from Deebo on social media than is trouble coming.
Than we should trade him for a already selected pick and 3th,or a 23' first rounder and at least a 2nd this year.
Or surprisingly Deebo signs a new contract but i have doubts cuz of the pricing.
I am not sure if hanging on to Deebo is the correct thing to do. He does not want to be a Niner so moving on from the guy for me is easy. Attitude is everything and Deebo no longer has the Niner team in his heart. Get rid of the guy as soon as possible. I support the team not the individual.
ReplyDeleteWe've got a peace time conciliatory in Shanny that will talk to Deebo and smoke the peace pipe.
DeleteI suspect you're correct Razor, but at what is sure to be a contract probably equal to Brown's at $25/yr, I would have preferred to take the Jets 10 and move down..... grab C and then a WR in the 2nd or 3rd.. my $.02. But I also admit, Deebo fits this offense and is bound to have success w Lance.
DeleteMaybe, if he does remain on the team I still would consider him a talented chump.
DeleteGeorge here. I’m assuming Deebo’s agent told him off the bat that he could make him rich but he had to follow his (the agent’s) game plan. So likely like the child Deebo, apparently, still is, he obeyed. I blame this on his agent primarily. It was a tough decision for the Niners not to take the 10th pick (if it was offered) because he’s a depreciating asset given his style of play and use in the backfield plus the likelihood in my mind at least that with Lance at quarterback he’ll be less a part of the offense.
ReplyDeleteYes, a talented chump is an apt description apparently. We don’t really have the whole picture though.
DeleteGeorge: That seems harsh. Deebo is a young man who is about to come into a lot of money. It is prudent for him to seek out advice from those who have experience. Now I'm not sure if his agent's advice is/was good. But still you can't expect someone without the life experience to know exactly what moves to make without professional advice - which by the way is why he is paying his agent.
DeletePersonally, I would have taken the Jets deal assuming that the "pick swap" was favorable.
If its true that the best offer the 49ers got for Deebo was 10 + a 5th in exchange for Deebo + 61 then good on the 49ers for holding firm.
ReplyDeleteThe risk seems to be in the level of his discontentment, which is unknown to us fans and maybe even the 49ers. Still if it is true that he told the 49ers not to even make an offer, that is very concerning.
DeleteNot sure if anyone saw this, but Deebo has a recent picture of himself on twitter wearing a tee-shirt with the words "I'm back" with a printed 49er background. Maybe the Deebo drama wasn't as big as the press/media made it out.
ReplyDelete