Friday, February 18, 2022

Breaking Down the 49ers Roster Needs - Offense

By Scooter_McG

The 49ers head into the start of new league year with a pretty strong roster already on the books, but with only 39 players under contract (including reserve/ futures contracts) and not much wiggle room cap wise. There are also some key contributors from 2021 that will be testing the FA waters this year unless the 49ers can reach agreements prior to the start of the new league year. 

Before we get into discussing the potential free agents and draft picks the 49ers may be interested in, it is worth taking a look over the 49ers roster as it stands today, including players under contract and pending free agents, to identify potential needs. Here is a breakdown of the 49ers roster and free agents on offense, and where I see the 49ers key positional needs on the offensive side of the ball heading into 2022. I will take a look at defense in a separate post.

Note that I have excluded players on reserve/ future contracts from this list, given those guys are typically more just training camp bodies.

QB: Under contract: Jimmy Garoppolo, Trey Lance. UFA: Nate Sudfeld.

The 49ers presumably have the starting QB spot locked up with Trey Lance ready to take over in year 2. Jimmy Garoppolo also remains on the roster for now, but all signs point to the 49ers actively looking to trade him and recoup some of the draft capital they gave up for Lance. 3rd string WB Nate Sudfeld will be a FA. 

Needs: Assuming the 49ers do as expected and trade Jimmy G, the team will have just one QB (Lance) under contract. It would be wise to pair Lance with a veteran QB that has starting experience to be his backup and potentially push him for the starting role if Lance falters in camp. A 3rd string QB will also be needed, though Sudfeld will likely be a preferred option for that role again in 2022.

OL: Under contract: Trent Williams, Mike McGlinchey, Alex Mack, Aaron Banks, Jaylon Moore, Justin Skule. UFA: Laken Tomlinson, Tom Compton. RFA: Dan Brunskill, Jake Brendel. ERFA: Colton McKivitz. 

Bookends Trent Williams and Mike McGlinchey are under contract, as is anchor Alex Mack. Williams is the best LT in football, while Mack was still very good last season and at his best McGlinchey can be an above average RT (an excellent in the run game). Those three also play the three positions along the OL that Shanahan has traditionally most valued. However, there are question marks for McGlinchey (returning from serious injury) and Mack (potential retirement). 

Both starting OGs are off contract, though Brunskill is a RFA and the 49ers should have little trouble keeping him. Tomlinson, however, appears set to test the FA market. Tom Compton, who was serviceable as a replacement to McGlinchey in 2021, is also off contract. 

Expectations will no doubt be high that 2021 draft picks Aaron Banks and Jaylon Moore can step into key roles in 2022, in particular Banks who was drafted in the 2nd round and may be in line to take over at LG from Tomlinson. Justin Skule returns from injury to provide some depth, while ERFA Colton McKivitz can also be brought back easily. 

Needs: If McGlinchey and Mack are back and playing decent football in 2022, and Banks can step in at LG and Moore at swing tackle, the 49ers "need" at OL is just depth and competition. But that is a lot of ifs. Even if the Glinch and Mack return it would seem wise for the 49ers to invest in each position to provide cover and have guys ready to step in in 2023.

RB: Under contract: Elijah Mitchell, Trey Sermon, Kyle Juzszcyk. UFA: Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson, Trenton Cannon. ERFA: JaMycal Hasty. 

Elijah Mitchell established himself as the bell-cow RB for the 49ers last year, and will no doubt be expected to carry the load in 2022. While Mitchell impressed, fellow rookie and 3rd round pick Sermon was used sparingly and appeared to spend much of the year in Shanahan and Turner's doghouse. Given where he was selected the 49ers will be hoping for much better returns from Sermon in 2022. "Juice" also returns at FB and remains the best FB in the NFL. 

After Mitchell and Sermon the cupboard is currently bare at RB - however, Shanahan has already indicated that do-everything All Pro WR/ "Wide-Back" Deebo Samuel will continue to be used at both WR and RB in 2022, providing a nice complementary piece to the RB room. 

In terms of players scheduled for FA, Mostert can be electric when healthy and nigh unstoppable at his best. But staying healthy has always been a struggle with Mostert. I am sure the 49ers would love to have him back, but also will be unlikely to get into a bidding war for him. Wilson and Cannon look like players that may struggle to see much of a market materialise for them and the 49ers could likely keep each of them on the veteran minimum. Even if they do get signed elsewhere, they are journeymen type RBs that should be fairly easy to replace. JaMycal Hasty is an ERFA and is likely to return. 

Needs: The 49ers will need to sign some depth behind Mitchell and Sermon, but don't need to spend big. However, finding a RB that can provide a similar skill set to Mostert would make the 49ers ground attack all the more dangerous in 2022. 

WR: Under contract: Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk. UFAs: Mohamed Sanu, Trent Sherfield, Travis Benjamin, Richie James. ERFA: Jauan Jennings.  

The two starting WR spots are locked in for the 49ers with Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. Samuel will likely also be getting a nice extension this offseason. Jauan Jennings finished the 2021 season as the 49ers #3 WR and as an ERFA will no doubt be brought back to compete for that role again in 2022. 

After that, the 49ers have some spots to fill. None of Sherfield, Benjamin or James really impressed in 2021, though Sherfield may be looked at to provide some STs depth. Sanu was decent early in the year before getting injured, but made way to Jennings later in the year. Deebo and Aiyuk have mentioned that Sanu's experience and leadership has been a great help in training and so the 49ers may want him to return at least for another training camp. 

Needs: As outlined above, the 49ers need depth after their top 3 WRs. And they may want to bring in a WR that can compete with Jennings for the #3 role. Areas the 49ers should prioritise is a WR with punt return capability, as well as a WR that can reliably stretch the field. 

The 49ers may also be on the look out for a player that can take on the role they envisaged for Jalen Hurd when they drafted him. In may respects that role was taken over by Deebo in 2021, but don't be surprised if the 49ers are once again in the market for a WR/RB/TE hybrid in the 2022 draft.

TE: Under contract: George Kittle, Charlie Woerner. UFA: Ross Dwelley. 

Kittle remains one of the top TEs in the NFL, and arguably the most well rounded TE in football. Health has been an issue the past two years though. Woerner improved considerably in 2021, in particular as a blocker, and provides nice depth at the position. Dwelley is a FA and saw his role diminish in 2021 - don't expect him to return in 2022. 

Needs: With only 2 TEs on the books, some depth will be needed. But don't be surprised if the 49ers do more than just look for bottom of the roster depth. TE has been a position the 49ers have flirted with on numerous off-seasons, looking to add a complementary TE to Kittle. There were rumours they tried hard to sign Austin Hooper, and did bring in Jordan Reed in 2020. There has already been some rumours that Shanahan is interested in exploring the market for a similar type of TE/ big slot receiver in 2022.

32 comments:

  1. I'd love to be in the 49ers camp to witness how they go about attacking this critical offseason. Fascinating puzzle Lynch has on his hands.

    In other news, Hankerson takes Welker's place as WR coach.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The promotion of Hankerson makes a lot of sense.

      Delete
  2. Thanks for this writeup, Scooter. Very comprehensive and thoughtful.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Trey Lance practice video leaks:
    https://www.ninersnation.com/2022/2/18/22940247/49ers-in-five-trey-lance-practice-footage-leaks-online-news

    ReplyDelete
  4. Yes, it's going to be a very interesting off-season.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sure is. Making sure Lance is surrounded with sufficient talent to develop and succeed will be vital.

      Delete
  5. Great writeup,
    While I want SF to add an explosive element to the run and pass game, I think the Oline is the priority. For years we have said the Oline is ok, the play action will protect them in the passing game. The problem is there always comes a time where play action is not an option and the Oline has to hold up on its own.
    As to explosive RBs I think they can find late in the draft or perhaps even bring back Breida if Mostert proves too expensive. For wideouts, they also should be able to find an explosive one a bit later like Jalen Nailor, though explosive wideouts are much easier to add.
    In any case it should be a very interesting offseason.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks Shoup. I agree with you. OL is what I believe should be the priority on offense. Even more so if Mack retires, or McGlinchey doesn’t appear to be progressing with his rehab to a point he'll be ready to go by camp.

      Delete
  6. 9ER PRE COMBINE PLAYER WISH LIST:
    # 9ers trade JG to Denver for Rd one #40
    Rd #1: EDGE Arnold Ebiketie, Penn St.

    Rd #2: S Lewis Cine, Georgia

    9ers trade EDGE Sampson Ebukam to NYJ for #96 & #116 Rd #3: CB Josh Jobe, Alabama
    Rd #3: OG Jamaree Salyer, Georgia

    Rd #4: WR Christian Watson, NDSU
    Rd #4: LB Brandon Smith, Penn St.

    RD #5: OC Alec Lindstrom, Boston College

    Rd #6: RB Jerome Ford, Cincinnati

    Rd #7: DT Otito Ogbonnia, UCLA
    Rd #7: OT Obinna Eze, TCU
    Rd #7: OG Lecitus Smith, Virginia Tech



    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I would love this draft GEEP though I think several of these players draft stock will change rapidly.
      Cine is likely gone before 61 as is Watson before round 4... but if SF gets clever they might be able to get a few of these players.
      *Note* Arnold is my draft crush.

      Delete
    2. Shoup
      Yep, I agree with you that several of these players draft stock will change rapidly, and why I listed it as my pre Combine WISH LIST. I also expect to see the top QB's moving up the draft board before the draft.

      I intend to add another 7 round 9er draft after the results of the Combine are known.

      QUESTION: (or anyone) Do you believe either Rogers or Wilson will leave GB or Seattle?

      Delete
    3. I think Wilson is more likely to leave than Rodgers but neither is likely to be moved.

      Delete
    4. I don't see either of those two quarterbacks going anywhere either. Jimmy G is headed to Denver imho.

      Delete
    5. Shoup / Razor
      Yea, I agree. I don't see Wilson or Rogers leaving either, but was curious what others thought.

      I do expect Denver to try to trade for Deshaun Watson first. But failing that, I can see them offering their 2nd Rd draft pick for JG. Hopefully, there will
      also be other clubs making a trade offer.

      Delete
  7. So much for Bettcher being the odds on favorite to replace Ryans. Maybe old Kenny Norton Jr. takes his place, given he quit to join the Seahawks.

    ReplyDelete
  8. I'm willing to bet Fangio agreed to be the DC next year when Ryans is named a head coach somewhere.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yeah, I suspect that is correct. Or at least Shanahan and Lynch feel good about their chances of hiring him next season if Ryans leaves.

      Delete
  9. It's that time of year, speculation is running rampant.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It's that time of year to ignore the noise!

      Delete
    2. Yep and the only thing we really know is that 2 thirds of the league has a questionable QB situation and the Niners have a QB to trade. Not buying much of anything that is being said but they should be able to get at least a second for JG and likely another pick. Just too many teams out there that need a QB and it's a bad year for them in the draft.

      Delete
  10. The 9ers have several FA's they need to resign, but are strapped for cash today. That should't be a problem for long. Per Spotrac, the 9ers are currently ~$4 mil over the cap! By trading JG, extending Ward and restructuring Armstead, they'd have ~$36 million in cap space.
    That's enough to get deals done for Bosa, Samuel, Tomlinson plus bring back free agents Jones, Key, Williams, Mostert and still have enough money to sign the 2022 draft picks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yeah - the timing of deals will be key though. They have a few RFAs they will likely want to offer tenders to, and personally I would be trying to lock DJ Jones down before FA starts. To make those deals they need to have money under the cap prior to the start of the new league year.

      Trading JG doesn't get his salary off the books until the start of the new league year when the deal can be finalised.

      So I suspect we will see extensions/ restructures of a few deals in the next few weeks to free up some space prior to the new league year starting.

      Delete
    2. I expect some big announcements next week.

      Delete
    3. Scooter
      "the timing of deals will be key though"
      Yep, very true.

      Delete
  11. Jack Hammer article: Free agents the Niners could target

    https://49ers.pressdemocrat.com/free-agents-the-49ers-could-target/

    ReplyDelete
  12. Replies
    1. Can't say I am overly disappointed by that.

      Jack Hammer suggests John Beck would be a logical replacement and I agree. Lance is believed to be working with him this offseason so bringing him in as QB coach as they approach camp would make sense.

      Delete
  13. George / Scooter, or anyone:
    Can anyone clear this up for me?
    * My understanding is: The 9er decision makers can meet with
    decision makers from other teams at the combine (03/02/2022
    thru 03/07/2022 and make an informal agreement on trading JG, but can NOT formally trade him until 03/16/22, the first
    day of free agency? thus JG's salary remains on the 9ers books until the trade is official, on 03/16/2022.
    * If true, then Jack Hammer is WRONG when he says, "There are several moves the team can make to free cap space." "The FIRST is moving on from Jimmy Garoppolo."
    * The problem with the comment is this. it means the 9ers will NOT have the salary cap space from trading JG, to
    sign their own free agents, until after free agency begins.
    NOTE: The 9er FO wants to sign their priority free agents before free agency begins and prevent other teams from offering them higher salaries.

    IMO: The FIRST thing the 9ers need to do is extend and restructure the contracts of their own players, providing the salary cap space to resign their top priority free agents.
    * After march 16, after JG's $25.5 Mil salary has been freed up, the 9ers will have the salary cap space to sign their
    own non priority free agents, as well as free agents from other teams.
    IMO, after signing their own free agents, the 9ers may sign a FA CB and OG, but won't have the cap space to sign a top FA.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I will say finding a trade partner for JG should be one if their first priorities though, because they need that cap relief at the start of the FA period.

      Delete

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