Friday, January 21, 2022

Divisional Round Matchups to Watch: 49ers at Packers



By Scooter_McG 

The 49ers are through to the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs after beating the Cowboys on the road last week. This week they travel to Lambeau Field to face to #1 seed in the NFC, the Green Bay Packers. 

Much like last week, the 49ers will head into this game as the deserved underdog. The Packers finished the season with a 13-4 record, and are led by the player most experts expect to be named NFL MVP for a fourth time this year in Aaron Rodgers. 

In terms of yards, the Packers field top ten units on both offense and defense. They finished the regular season with the 10th ranked offense in yards gained and 9th ranked defense in yards allowed. While these numbers are impressive, a key element of their win-loss record has been winning the turnover battle, as they rank first in terms of giveaways, and 8th in terms of takeaways. This is a team that takes care of the football, while still boasting a potent passing game and decent running game. 

According to Football Outsiders DVOA, the Packers boast the second ranked offense in the NFL, largely driven by the passing game. There can be no denying that if Rodgers is allowed time and space the Packers will be in the box seat to win this one. On the positive side for the 49ers, the Packers are reliant on their offense for success. They rank only 22nd in DVOA on defense, while the Packers special teams ranks last (yep, even worse than the 49ers special teams!). 

While facing the #1 seed is a daunting task ahead for the 49ers, this is not a game that the 49ers should fear. There are a number of areas in which the 49ers could well have an advantage in this one. Here is where I see the game being won or lost for the 49ers. 

Battle tested. The Packers come into this one having lost their last game of the season to the Lions. While it was a meaningless game, it means the Packers have now not played a meaningful game in over a fortnight after the bye last week. The last time they played a team that finished with a winning record was back on November 29th when they beat the Rams. 

While the Packers come into the game well rested, what they may be lacking is the mettle that teams develop by playing meaningful games against top level opponents leading into elimination playoff games. 

The 49ers by contrast are coming off the back of two massive wins against playoff teams (Rams and Cowboys), in which both games would have eliminated the 49ers had they lost. Two weeks before the Rams they also played a nail-biter against the Titans, the AFC #1 seed. The 49ers should have the advantage in this one in terms of the callouses and mental fortitude these tougher games provide. 

Two areas I can see this providing a potential advantage are early in the game, where the 49ers may be able to get out to a fast start if the Packers come into the game a little loose, unfocused or tight, as well as late in the game if the game is close in the final minutes, where the 49ers have recently overcome close game pressure in the dying minutes in big games. 

Good Health. There were a few injury scares coming out of the Cowboys game, with Bosa and Warner ruled out with injury during the game, while Jimmy G and Ambry Thomas both pulled up with injuries out of the game. However, it looks like the 49ers were able to avoid any significant injuries, with all players participating in practice this week in some capacity, and no players ruled out or doubtful ahead of the game this weekend. Having all players available for this matchup will be a huge boon for the team. 

The Packers of course benefitted from the bye as the #1 seed last week, and also come into the game in relatively good health. They have a few players that were banged up that will be returning to the field. At this stage it looks like WR Marquez Valdez-Scantling will be the only player on either teams active roster not available due to injury. 

Stop Rodgers to Adams. When it comes to stopping the Packers, this is the most important combination that needs to be defended. Rodgers is an elite QB that can carve any team up, but it his combination with Adams that he consistently goes to in key moments right throughout a game. 

Adams accounted for 123 of the Packers 402 total receptions this season (just under one third), for 1,553 yards (over one third of the Packers total receiving yards) and 11 TDs (more than one quarter of their total receiving TDs). The next closest receiver was Allen Lazard with 40 catches and 513 yards (RB Aaron Jones had 52 catches). When it comes to the Packers passing offense, Adams is option 1a and 1b, and he typically dominates.   

However, if a team can find a way to limit him, that team will go a long way to winning. In their four defeats this season Adams averaged just 6 catches for 67 receiving yards per game, while he averaged over 7.5 catches for 99 yards per game in their 13 victories. Adams also only scored in one of those four defeats. Three of Adams' four lowest receiving outputs on the season were in games the Packers lost. 

If the 49ers can contain Adams in this one it will go a long way to keeping the Packers offense in check, and give the team a good chance of coming away with the win. However, it won't be easy, and will take a much better effort than in their week 3 contest where Adams had 12 catches for 132 yards and a TD. Of course, Josh Norman was one of the 49ers starting CBs in that game, and he was in coverage on his TD. If Thomas is good to go in this one then he will be starting in place of Norman, and Adams will present his biggest challenge to date.

Thunder and Lightning. It is no secret now that the 49ers offense goes as far as the running game takes it. And the 49ers top two rushing threats (excluding Mostert on IR) will both be coming into this game fit and healthy. 

Mitchell has been a revelation this year as a sixth round rookie gem. In the 12 games he has played this season, he has topped 100 yards 4 times and 80 yards 8 times. And in 7 of the 8 times he has topped 80 yards, the 49ers have won the game (the only loss came against the Colts where Jimmy G had a terrible game). More telling, the 49ers have won five the past six games Mitchell has played, and in all six games he has rushed more than 20 times. Mitchell has become the 49ers most reliable player and also one of their most important as he plays a vital role in keeping the team in manageable down and distances on offense.

Do-it-all WR/RB(/QB?) Deebo Samuel provides the lightning AND thunder in the running game to Mitchell's steady output. He provides the big play threat every time he touches the ball out of the backfield, having provided 9 rushing TDs this season with 7 of those being of 10 yards or more. His acceleration is outstanding to consistently get himself to the edge and through gaps quickly, but he also brings a power element to his game that makes him very tough to bring down. 

If the 49ers are to win this game there is no doubt the combination of Mitchell and Samuel will be crucial to that victory. 

Equally important will be stopping the Packers from getting out to a big lead early, so the team can stick with the run. The Packers run defense has struggled at times this season, and has allowed 4.7 yards per carry on the season (30th most in the NFL). However, as teams have often been chasing points, the Packers faced the fourth fewest rush attempts in the NFL on the season. The 49ers need to stick with their ground attack and attack the Packers biggest weakness. This wil have the added benefit of giving Rodgers less opportunities with the ball. 

This should be another great game. Go 49ers!

19 comments:

  1. Good job, Scooter. I hope this won't be your last matchup breakdown for the year, and we get at least one more. Kittle has been pretty quiet lately in the receiving dept., and I expect that to change in this game. I've got the 49ers winning this one in another nail biter, 28-24.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Fingers crossed we get at least one more preview. Hopefully two!

      Delete
    2. Scooter
      As usual, another great write up.
      Like you, I believe (in this case), GB's record will work against them. If they come out over confident and flat. When the 9ers start the game playing smash mouth football, score early, get the crowd out of the game, and control the clock, it will set the tone for the first half. GB is not used to playing from behind and the opponent controlling the clock. It'll be very interesting to see how they react in the 2nd half?
      I also look for KS to get Kittle involved more than the past 2 games and pick his spots to turn Deboo lose.
      If Ryan can devise a defensive game plan, to take Adams out of the game, I expect to see GB frustration
      set in, causing mistakes to be made...An INT, or two, should determine the winner.

      Delete
    3. I think we're already in the Packers heads:

      Packers strapped on the pads twice to prepare for the physical 49ers. Most teams don't do much during their playoff bye weeks, but LaFleur practiced all three days and he even put the pads on once. Then he came back with a regular week of practice with a padded practice on Wednesday.

      Delete
  2. 49ers are the NFL's only defense to allow less than 1 yard before contact per rush attempt on the season (including playoffs, PFF)

    ReplyDelete
  3. Need a big lead going into the fourth quarter.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Deebo is the new Slash.

    Guy might even get a kick off return for a TD if you aren't careful (he was a legit returner in college).

    ReplyDelete
  5. TAKE IT TO THE BANK: IN THE END, IT WILL BE THE WINE AND CHEESE CROWD CELEBRATING OVER THE BRAT AND CHEESE CROWD...
    9ERS 23, GB 21....
    https://sports.yahoo.com/m/3c339f92-a376-39d5-8243-3dc094e7fbc6/'wine-and-cheese-crowd'%3A-nfl.html

    ReplyDelete
  6. Very nice preview, Scooter. I especially like the point you make that it's almost 3 weeks since the Packers played a meaningful game. Their mental state from this hibernation from competition may nullify the advantage in physical sate from the added week of rest.

    Meanwhile, here's Peter Schrager's take:
    https://twitter.com/nflnetwork/status/1484532162238066697

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think recent big game, playoff atmosphere experience is a huge benefit in games like this. Just need to make sure the team doesn't suffer from feeling like last week was their big game, which I don't think they will. Lots of guys on this team that got the experience of going to the SB two years ago and know they need to stay focused and last week was just a stepping stone.

      The Packers also have a lot of high profile players coming back from long term injury. While it is great for them to welcome these guys back, they haven't played much football for a while. Will be interesting to see how they handle it towards the back end of each half.

      Delete
    2. Mood
      Got to love the condescending "WINE AND CHEESE comment.
      Jealousy is such an ugly, but revealing emotion...lol

      Delete
    3. Both good points, Scooter. Bakhtiari, Smith and Alexander have missed many games and likely will not be fully ready for play-off football where the speed and intensity has ratcheted up a notch. Niners' players and coaches have deeper playoff experience. It's now up to Jimmy and ST not to make mistakes.

      Geep,
      I think Peter is being tongue-in-cheek. Hey, as you know, three of the Packers' best players are from NorCal (Bakhtiari and Adams are from the Bay Area, and Rodgers is from Chico). I'll let Deebo and the Niners slice up the cheese tomorrow at Lambeau as I enjoy my wine!

      Delete
  7. Highest win pct since 2016

    Patrick Mahomes .792
    Tom Brady .788
    Lamar Jackson .717
    Jimmy Garoppolo .706
    Aaron Rodgers .676

    *min. 50 starts, includes postseason

    ReplyDelete
  8. 15 Degrees with 12 mph wind at kickoff.

    ReplyDelete
  9. NY Times likes the Niners (and catering to an "elitist" audience, no snide remarks about wine and cheese)

    Line: Packers -5.5 | Total: 47.5

    Aaron Rodgers is 0-3 against the 49ers in the playoffs, and it took a last-second field goal for Green Bay to beat them in Week 3.

    This time around, the 49ers are unsure if defenders Nick Bosa (concussion) and Fred Warner (ankle) will be available, and the team expects quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to again play through a shoulder sprain and a torn thumb ligament in his throwing hand.

    But San Francisco can still thwart Green Bay’s Super Bowl plans by attacking the Packers’ weakness against the run. In narrow victories over the Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns, Green Bay allowed over 140 rushing yards, which should excite 49ers Coach Kyle Shanahan, whose offensive strategy leans on misdirection runs, motion, and exploiting contact-averse defensive backs by targeting Deebo Samuel. The forecasts may necessitate that type of game plan, as the temperature at Lambeau Field should hover around 4 degrees.

    It’s unclear if the Packers will have pass rusher Za’Darius Smith (back), cornerback Jaire Alexander (shoulder) and offensive tackle David Bakhtiari (knee) available, providing even more reason that San Francisco could win outright, or at least cover. Pick: San Francisco +5.5

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Green Bay's run defense won't be the deciding factor. Niners will be able to run the ball with success probably comparable to what they had against the Cowboys.

      The deciding factor, IMO, may be the ability of the Niners D line to stop the run so that Rodgers is in third and 6+ yards regularly. Packers' run game at this time seems to be better than that of the Cowboys.

      The other deciding factor will be the back 7's pre-snap communication among themselves to readjust coverage responsibilities in response to the Packers lining up Adams all over the place and combining that with some pre-snap motion.

      Delete

Gameday Week 15: 49ers vs Dolphins

  The postseason is a year away. Win or lose the only thing they're playing for today is pride. Another opportunity to advertise your wo...