Divisional Round Matchups to Watch: 49ers at Packers

By Scooter_McG 

The 49ers are through to the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs after beating the Cowboys on the road last week. This week they travel to Lambeau Field to face to #1 seed in the NFC, the Green Bay Packers. 

Much like last week, the 49ers will head into this game as the deserved underdog. The Packers finished the season with a 13-4 record, and are led by the player most experts expect to be named NFL MVP for a fourth time this year in Aaron Rodgers. 

In terms of yards, the Packers field top ten units on both offense and defense. They finished the regular season with the 10th ranked offense in yards gained and 9th ranked defense in yards allowed. While these numbers are impressive, a key element of their win-loss record has been winning the turnover battle, as they rank first in terms of giveaways, and 8th in terms of takeaways. This is a team that takes care of the football, while still boasting a potent passing game and decent running game. 

According to Football Outsiders DVOA, the Packers boast the second ranked offense in the NFL, largely driven by the passing game. There can be no denying that if Rodgers is allowed time and space the Packers will be in the box seat to win this one. On the positive side for the 49ers, the Packers are reliant on their offense for success. They rank only 22nd in DVOA on defense, while the Packers special teams ranks last (yep, even worse than the 49ers special teams!). 

While facing the #1 seed is a daunting task ahead for the 49ers, this is not a game that the 49ers should fear. There are a number of areas in which the 49ers could well have an advantage in this one. Here is where I see the game being won or lost for the 49ers. 

Battle tested. The Packers come into this one having lost their last game of the season to the Lions. While it was a meaningless game, it means the Packers have now not played a meaningful game in over a fortnight after the bye last week. The last time they played a team that finished with a winning record was back on November 29th when they beat the Rams. 

While the Packers come into the game well rested, what they may be lacking is the mettle that teams develop by playing meaningful games against top level opponents leading into elimination playoff games. 

The 49ers by contrast are coming off the back of two massive wins against playoff teams (Rams and Cowboys), in which both games would have eliminated the 49ers had they lost. Two weeks before the Rams they also played a nail-biter against the Titans, the AFC #1 seed. The 49ers should have the advantage in this one in terms of the callouses and mental fortitude these tougher games provide. 

Two areas I can see this providing a potential advantage are early in the game, where the 49ers may be able to get out to a fast start if the Packers come into the game a little loose, unfocused or tight, as well as late in the game if the game is close in the final minutes, where the 49ers have recently overcome close game pressure in the dying minutes in big games. 

Good Health. There were a few injury scares coming out of the Cowboys game, with Bosa and Warner ruled out with injury during the game, while Jimmy G and Ambry Thomas both pulled up with injuries out of the game. However, it looks like the 49ers were able to avoid any significant injuries, with all players participating in practice this week in some capacity, and no players ruled out or doubtful ahead of the game this weekend. Having all players available for this matchup will be a huge boon for the team. 

The Packers of course benefitted from the bye as the #1 seed last week, and also come into the game in relatively good health. They have a few players that were banged up that will be returning to the field. At this stage it looks like WR Marquez Valdez-Scantling will be the only player on either teams active roster not available due to injury. 

Stop Rodgers to Adams. When it comes to stopping the Packers, this is the most important combination that needs to be defended. Rodgers is an elite QB that can carve any team up, but it his combination with Adams that he consistently goes to in key moments right throughout a game. 

Adams accounted for 123 of the Packers 402 total receptions this season (just under one third), for 1,553 yards (over one third of the Packers total receiving yards) and 11 TDs (more than one quarter of their total receiving TDs). The next closest receiver was Allen Lazard with 40 catches and 513 yards (RB Aaron Jones had 52 catches). When it comes to the Packers passing offense, Adams is option 1a and 1b, and he typically dominates.   

However, if a team can find a way to limit him, that team will go a long way to winning. In their four defeats this season Adams averaged just 6 catches for 67 receiving yards per game, while he averaged over 7.5 catches for 99 yards per game in their 13 victories. Adams also only scored in one of those four defeats. Three of Adams' four lowest receiving outputs on the season were in games the Packers lost. 

If the 49ers can contain Adams in this one it will go a long way to keeping the Packers offense in check, and give the team a good chance of coming away with the win. However, it won't be easy, and will take a much better effort than in their week 3 contest where Adams had 12 catches for 132 yards and a TD. Of course, Josh Norman was one of the 49ers starting CBs in that game, and he was in coverage on his TD. If Thomas is good to go in this one then he will be starting in place of Norman, and Adams will present his biggest challenge to date.

Thunder and Lightning. It is no secret now that the 49ers offense goes as far as the running game takes it. And the 49ers top two rushing threats (excluding Mostert on IR) will both be coming into this game fit and healthy. 

Mitchell has been a revelation this year as a sixth round rookie gem. In the 12 games he has played this season, he has topped 100 yards 4 times and 80 yards 8 times. And in 7 of the 8 times he has topped 80 yards, the 49ers have won the game (the only loss came against the Colts where Jimmy G had a terrible game). More telling, the 49ers have won five the past six games Mitchell has played, and in all six games he has rushed more than 20 times. Mitchell has become the 49ers most reliable player and also one of their most important as he plays a vital role in keeping the team in manageable down and distances on offense.

Do-it-all WR/RB(/QB?) Deebo Samuel provides the lightning AND thunder in the running game to Mitchell's steady output. He provides the big play threat every time he touches the ball out of the backfield, having provided 9 rushing TDs this season with 7 of those being of 10 yards or more. His acceleration is outstanding to consistently get himself to the edge and through gaps quickly, but he also brings a power element to his game that makes him very tough to bring down. 

If the 49ers are to win this game there is no doubt the combination of Mitchell and Samuel will be crucial to that victory. 

Equally important will be stopping the Packers from getting out to a big lead early, so the team can stick with the run. The Packers run defense has struggled at times this season, and has allowed 4.7 yards per carry on the season (30th most in the NFL). However, as teams have often been chasing points, the Packers faced the fourth fewest rush attempts in the NFL on the season. The 49ers need to stick with their ground attack and attack the Packers biggest weakness. This wil have the added benefit of giving Rodgers less opportunities with the ball. 

This should be another great game. Go 49ers!