After starting the season with two road wins the 49ers have now lost three straight and find themselves tied with the Seahawks in last place in the NFC West. An offseason filled with fan optimism has now taken a turn to one of considerable fan concern and discontent as the team heads into the bye with a record of 2-3.
The NFL can be an unforgiving league and it's fans even more so.
And those calls aren't without some merit. Shanahan's regular season record of 31 wins and 38 losses (44.9% winning percentage) puts him near the bottom third of win percentage for head coaches with more than 50 games coached. At a record of 2-3, Shanahan is now on track for his fourth losing season out of five in San Francisco. And the 49ers offense, which is masterminded by Shanahan, has struggled to generate points in four out of five contests in 2021. To make matters worse, those offensive woes have wasted two straight excellent defensive efforts that should have been worthy of wins.
Yet despite the current malaise and gloom surrounding the 49ers and angst of 49er fans, in my opinion there remains some signifcant reasons for optimism about the 2021 season.
1. The defense has been excellent the past two weeks, and is improving. Reason number one is something I have already touched on. The 49ers defensive efforts against the Seahawks and Cardinals were worthy of a winning football team. Over that two game stretch the 49ers pass rush has finally figured out how to deal with mobile QBs while still generating pressure. The pass coverage has been surprisingly good against some top receivers despite injuries in the secondary. And after some struggles stopping the run in the first few games, the 49ers run defense has been much better the past few weeks. DeMeco Ryans has this unit playing some very strong football as a group.
Nick Bosa and Arik Armstead in particular have been very good. Bosa already has five sacks on the season despite being double teamed almost constantly. And the attention Bosa is getting has taken some of the attention off Armstead, which has freed him up to create havoc on the opposite side of the line. While that hasn't translated to many sacks for Armstead, he has been a regular presence in the opposing backfield and hurrying QBs.
2. While they have been good, there is reason to believe the defense can be more impactful moving forward. As good as the defense has been the past few weeks, there is actually one key area they have struggled in - turnovers. The 49ers have only taken the ball away twice this season. As a result, while the defense has done a great job stopping points, they haven't necessarily been putting the offense in great field position. That low a level of turnovers is highly unusual for a defense playing well. If the 49ers can get some regression to the mean happening we should expect to see the 49ers defensive dominance start to result in some short fields for the offense, and more scoring opportunities.
3. While the 49ers have struggled scoring points, they have moved the ball on offense. This is probably one of the most frustrating parts of the 49ers losses the past two weeks - the lack of points hasn't been due to the offense failing to move the ball. They have simply failed to finish drives and convert some short yardage situations. Much like with turnovers on defense, over the course of a season with some regression to the mean we would expect to see the 49ers convert a higher percentage of these drives and key downs into first downs and points.
4. The issues on offense are largely ones of execution, which are correctable. The 49ers inability to finish drives and score points would be very alarming if it was as a result of being overmatched or outgunned. However, if you go back and watch the games, the 49ers have actually created plenty of opportunities for big run and pass plays. Holding the 49ers back has been an assorted combination of QBs missing receivers, receivers dropping passes, running backs missing holes, blockers getting tangled and then missing their landmarks, and penalties. While this is still alarming in its own way, and speaks to a lack of appropriate preparation and mentality on behalf of the players (which comes down to both the players and coaching), the good news is that it is something that can be corrected. You will always have some level of these opportunities being missed, but if the 49ers can eliminate even a quarter of these types of mistakes it will likely translate to a lot more points.
5. The largest losing margin has been 7 points. The 49ers have lost the past three games by 2 points, 7 points and 7 points, against some quality teams. These have been winnable games, but as outlined above, too many mistakes have cost the team these games, not a lack of talent, nor a lack of effort. Fix the mistakes and this team will be good and tough matchup for any team.
6. The hardest part of the schedule is done. This one might be debated by some, but looking at the schedule it appears (right now) that the past three weeks will be the hardest three week stretch of the schedule for the 49ers this season. That isn't to say the 49ers have an easy schedule here on out - any schedule in the NFC West is tough - but it does get a little easier.
7. The 49ers have only lost 3 games. I've left this one to last, but it really needs to be highlighted. The 49ers have only lost 3 games - there is still a lot of football left to go in this season. Heading into week 6 the teams placed 6th to 8th in the NFC have only one more win than the 49ers. The teams finishing 6th and 7th at the end of the season will be in the playoffs. The 49ers are well and truly still in the hunt for a playoff spot at this very early stage of the season.
The 49ers could start by actually establishing an offensive identity. Their defense is playing well, and they are getting better by the week.
ReplyDeleteBut the offense? It's been the same story for the last few years. Kyle's relationship with his QB's reminds me of those parents who put their child on a literal leash when they take them to the amusement park, and the child isn't sure if it's them that their parents don't trust, or if it's the strangers around them.
I don't think putting a young child on a leash, in a situation like that is the worst idea in then world, but for me, I'd rather use that as an opportunity to let my child know that I trust them to stay near my side without the leash, if you know what I mean.
I'd hate to think where Lance would end up if Shanny never pulled back on his leash.
ReplyDeleteGood write up, Scooter. I agree that there are reasons for optimism but they've got to attack them coming out of their bye if they want any shot at the post season.
Absolutely. They need to correct the mistakes they've been making on offense and maintain the upward trajectory on defense.
DeleteMaybe, Razor.
DeleteI went back and watched the game again, for what I think was my 4th thorough playthrough, and while my overall impressions haven't changed I have a few more observations.
What I still find interesting is, from the very first play call, I could never really figure out Kyle's logic, and when I think about it, maybe that was the point?
I am not going to get back into my issues with running QB power on 3rd and long, because I think that stuff speaks for itself. There's a reason we almost never see coaches call that stuff in the NFL.
But I do want to talk about the empty pass sets again because these are bothering me more than the QB draws, even though sure enough, Trey ended up getting hurt (knock on wood), and it was probably on one of those power runs.
I would have bet good money on Kyle dialing up a couple runs for Elijah Mitchell to get things started, because it's the start of the game, and Trey's adrenaline was likely flowing full throttle, and unfortunately, anyone who has been following Trey's progress knows that he has a tendency to sail his early throws, and that goes all the way back to the first week of camp.
Instead of getting the ball to Mitchell early, Kyle motions Mitchell out of the backfield on the very first play, leaving Trey Lance with an empty backfield, lol, and means he doesn't even have a RB left in pass protection, even though sure enough, Arizona was bringing a 5 man rush.
Do you guys see the issues with this?
Anyways, Trey does have Deebp open on a quick slant, but for some reason, probably a lack of confidence in his ability to throw a quick strike, Trey doesn't pull the trigger, and instead he tucks the ball and makes a beeline for the 1st down marker at the sideline, and he does pick up 14 yards, all on his own, but that was despite the puzzling play call.
Now, it wasn't all bad for Lance. In fact, when Kyle did dial up plays that made a lot more sense, IMO, Trey showed off his superior arm strength, his dynamic athleticism, and he kept a cool demeanor, all of which tells me that he needs to play. Not only does he need to play, with the way the offense has been struggling with Jimmy, I think the 49ers best chance to get back on track and into the postseason rests on the shoulders of their dynamic young QB. I think if Kyle would stop treating Trey Lance like a child on a leash, and start putting together a game plan that takes advantage of Trey's unique skillset, I think this team is talented enough to get on a roll in the second half of the season, but I don't think it's going to happen if they stay the course with Garoppolo.
I am 100% certain that the 49ers best chance is to roll with Trey Lance after the bye week, and I have NO DOUBT that I will ultimately be proven right about this!
"Instead of getting the ball to Mitchell early, Kyle motions Mitchell out of the backfield on the very first play, leaving Trey Lance with an empty backfield, lol, and means he doesn't even have a RB left in pass protection, even though sure enough, Arizona was bringing a 5 man rush.
DeleteDo you guys see the issues with this?"
This play was a great example of where Trey was struggling to process the information. It was his job to slide the protection over and he just didn't see it. And then rather go to his hot route, he didn't process the danger quickly enough and had to bail.
Now we can argue about the play call putting too much on Lance's plate on the first snap of his first start. But it was a play intentionally designed to get the Cardinals thinking pass in empty sets, to set up the QB runs from the same look later. And frankly, counting defenders and sliding protection is something he should be capable of pre-snap.
Scooter, this is where we have our wires crossed.
DeleteYou say: this play is an example This play was a great example of where Trey was struggling to process the information. It was his job to slide the protection over and he just didn't see it. And then rather go to his hot route, he didn't process the danger quickly enough and had to bail.
And I'm not arguing that you are wrong, Scooter. In fact, I think you are mostly right. What I am arguing is ... why Kyle would call this play in the first then, if he feels the way you feel? I agree with you that this is a fine example of Trey failing to process the information, ALTHOUGH .... I am not 100% discounting the idea that it has more to do with a lack of confidence than it does a lack of ability to process, but either way, that doesn't change the fact that this was a tough spot to put Trey in, especially to start the game.
If Kyle doesn't trust Trey's ability to make these reads, why is he calling such a difficult play in the first place? That's my biggest point. We can quibble about the naked QB runs between the tackles, but that's not even my biggest issue, although it is one of my issues.
Why not start the game off like 99.99% of NFL offensive coordinators would, considering the circumstances? Like I said, I am not sure there is another offensive coach in the NFL who would start this game off with this play call, considering where Trey is at in his development. That's why I was so angry about it.
And I'm not the only one who doesn't get it, Scooter. Here's Brian "Baldy" Baldinger on the subject:
“You have to give your quarterback a chance to succeed. Putting Trey Lance last week in empty sets, spread formations, asking him to throw it against a Cardinals defense that’s lining up in a different defense than they’ve showed all year - you’re asking him to do too much."
And that's exactly my point. If Kyle doesn't trust Trey at this stage, why would he put him in that position then, in the first place?
Why wouldn't it make a lot more sense to give Mitchell and Sermon 30 combined carries, and sprinkle in some of those zone-read plays for the two Trey's?
Kyle called for Garoppolo to hand the ball off to his RB's a total of 49 times over the first 2 games .... FOURTY NINE. That's an average of 24.5 RB carries per game with Jimmy at QB, and yet he called 11 carries for his RB's with Trey at QB .... ELEVEN?
How does that make sense, Scooter? If you don't trust Trey as a passer, and you don't want to put the weight of the offense on his shoulders, why not hand the ball against a team that struggles to stop the run? Arizona's run defense was ranked 29th, going into Sunday, and Trey Sermon is fantastic running zone-read concepts - the very concepts Kyle has boasted about in regards to using a mobile QB.
I just, I cannot for the life of me understand this.
Well, the easy answer there is that Shanahan does trust Trey to run those concepts, rightly or wrongly.
DeleteIt isn't what I believe they should have done, but I think the outrage at the game plan is over the top. It's not as if it is impossible to see what Shanahan was going for.
Scooter, this kind of sums up my frustrations with Kyle:
DeleteIf you were the 49ers OC, wouldn't you come out and try to run the football down Arizona's throat?
Like I said, the Cardinals were ranked 29th in the NFL against the run. And it's not like Kyle didn't have any healthy RB's. He gave his healthiest RB, Trey Sermon, ONE carry all afternoon, despite the fact that Sermon was coming off of his best game as a pro.
Now I am not exactly an expert, but even I know that if you have an inexperienced rookie QB making his first start, on the road and in a hostile environment, and your opponent is one of the worst teams in the league against the run. Even I know that you have to give your RB's 25-30 carries.
And what really chaps my hide .... that's Kyle's thing! He loves his RB's more than just about any HC/OC in the NFL! Kyle Shanahan loves nothing more than to impose his will by using his RB's to run the football down his opponents throat. So what gives, I ask you, WHAT GIVES?
OK, that's fair, Scooter.
DeleteI've expressed why I feel the way I do, and I've expressed what I would do moving forward, so we'll just have to agree to disagree about whether I am blowing things out of proportion. I certainly respect your opinion, and Razor's opinion, and other opinions on this blog, so I'll try to be better at keeping things under proper prospective.
Cheers!
And I am going to try to turn over a new leaf coming out of the bye week, and try to be a little more open minded about Kyle and Jimmy.
DeleteScooter
ReplyDeleteWhile I would like to share your optimism, I HAVE MY DOUBTS.
THE GOOD: The 9er defense, RB's and CB's returning from IR and still a long season to recover.
THE BAD: Right side of the O-Line can NOT pass protect, JG isn't a mobile QB and everyone knows his limitations! So establishing the run game and play action, is essential!
The largest losing margin has been 7 points: True, but I attribute that to the defense keeping the 9ers in the game, not because of the offense. As you point out, "the 49ers have struggled scoring points."
The issues on offense are largely ones of execution, which are correctable. This is also true, but doing it remains to be seen.
The 9er are a 2W-3L team, who have beat the Lions (0W-5L) and the Eagles (2W-3L).
The 9ers are scheduled to play the Colts next (1W-4L), and should win. Then the Bears (3W-2L), Arizona (5W-0L) and the Rams (4W-1L)
Arizona plays the Brown this Sun., then the Texans and Packers. The 9ers need Arizona to lose at least one game, if not two, before playing them again on Nov. 7th.
This Sun the Rams play the NYG, then Lions, Texans and the Titans before playing the 9ers on Nov 15th. I don't see the
Rams losing to these 4 teams, but hope the Titans beat them.
Both games against the Colts and Bears are must win games for SF, because based on what I have seen from them so far this season, I don't see them beating either Arizona, or the Rams.
So this raises two questions in my mind. 1) How do the 9ers make up ground against either Arizona or the Rams, if they can only beat teams with a losing record? 2) How many games
will the 9ers have to lose, before KS accepts the fact JG won't get the 9ers into the playoffs and increases the reps Lance gets, to start preparing him for the 2022 season?
As I said before, I'll be happy to eat crow if I'm wrong and
JG wins enough games to get the 9ers into the playoffs.
I'm not saying there aren't reasons to have doubts.
DeleteBut, the 49ers were 37 seconds away from starting the year 3-0. Then against the Seahawks if the offense capitalized on just one more defensive stop in the 1st half and Trenton Cannon doesn't make 3 boneheaded STs gaffes, the team starts 4-0. And they were right in the game against the Cardinals despite having a rookie QB making his 1st start. They weren't far away from being a 5-0 team despite some very obvious mistakes.
And yeah, the 49ers have some areas of weakness and concern. So do 31 other teams in the NFL. If having weaknesses prevented a team from making the playoffs there would never be any playoffs.
As for needing to catch the Cardinals and Rams, that isn't even true. They need to have one of the top 3 records for non-division winners in the NFC. That can happen without catching the Cardinals or Rams.
I get having doubts about the team. But sure has felt the past couple of weeks that a large segment of 49ers fans have already written the epitaph of the 49ers 2021 season. That I simply do not get.
Scooter:
Delete* The NFL went to three wildcard teams In 1990-91. With only three divisions per conference, it was quite common to have three teams from one division in the playoffs. There were even two instances where there were four teams from the NFC Central division in the playoffs. (1994-95 and 1997-98).
When the league went to four divisions and only two wildcard teams per conference in the 2002-03 season, more than 2 teams became less common! From that time up through the 2019-20 season, it happened 7 times! So for 18 years, 3 NFL teams have made the playoff without being one of the top two teams in their division. So Ok, I agree it can happen, B U T what are the odds? You'll excuse me if (as I said), I have my doubt.
* "But sure has felt the past couple of weeks that a large segment of 49ers fans have already written the epitaph of the 49ers 2021 season. That I simply do not get."
As I said before, I'll be happy to eat crow if I'm wrong and JG wins enough games to get the 9ers into the playoffs. Does that sound like I've written the epitaph of the 49ers 2021 season?
The 9er's 2021 season "EPITAPH will be written by KS and JG, not me or the fans, and I'll stand behind my statement the game against the Bears is a must win game for the 9ers to make the playoffs. I'd also add
so is the Game against the Colts.
At the end of the season (perhaps sooner), we'll know
if I'm right, or not!
The way you and many others have basically ceded the season already, yes, it sounds like you have written the epitaph on the season already. Doubts are fine, but effectively giving it up as too hard at this point of the season is ludicrous.
DeleteWill it be difficult? Yes. Is there a reason to basically give up on believing the 49ers have a chance just five games into the season? Absolutely not.
12 games to go. Win two thirds of those and the team gets to 10 wins, which should be right in the mix for playoffs. Win three quarters and they end with 11 wins which should definitely be enough. But sure feels like a lot of fans have written the chances of getting to 10-11 wins off, based on some offensive performances that should rate near the bottom of their performances by year's end.
Scooter
DeleteWHAT PART OF..."As I said before, I'll be happy to eat crow if I'm wrong and JG wins enough games to get the 9ers into the playoffs. Does that sound like I've written the epitaph of the 49ers 2021 season?"...Don't you get?
FACT #1) The REALITY is the 9ers are a 2W-3L team. If
if they lose to the Colts and or Bears they're a 3W-4L team and play both Arizona and Rams next, and 2 more loses! Now they're a 3W-6L team with 8 games left in the season.
FACT #2: As a 2W-3L team their chance of making the playoffs is 27%. If they lose to either the Colts or Bear. They'll be a 3W-6L team after losing their next 2 games to Arizona and the Rams. If that doesn't give you reason to "D O U B T, then I don't know what will?
By saying you'd be happy to eat crow if you are wrong, are you not saying you don't really give them much of a chance? That you've basically written them off already? To the point you acknowledge you'd look so silly in your current belief you'd eat crow? You do understand the meaning of that idiom, don't you?
DeleteSure, you'd be happy to be wrong. No kidding.
As I have said, reasons to have doubt I get. But being so down on their chances you've basically written the season off I don't.
Let me explain it this way! The betting odds of an
DeleteNFL team starting the season with 2W & 3L and making the playoff is 27 percent. It has nothing to do with me! If you take umbrage with the 27%, your argument is with those that set the betting odds, not me.
And if the odds are 27% for a 2W-3L team guess what the odds are for a 3W-6L? You may not like those facts, but that's like blaming the messenger.
"By saying you'd be happy to eat crow if you are wrong, are you not saying you don't really give them much of a chance?" NO Scooter, I'm NOT saying that. you're trying to put
words in my mouth.
"That you've basically written them off already?"
That Scooter is your OPINION not mine. Do you know what they say about opinions? If you don't like the odds, so be it. But don't try to make it something it is NOT.
"Sure, you'd be happy to be wrong. No kidding."
Resorting to Sarcasm or a taunt? Very unbecoming of you scooter and what people do when they know they've lost.
I'm not putting any words in your mouth. They are your words. If you didn't mean it like that, use different words.
DeleteGEEP, do you mean - "opinions are like bellybuttons"
DeleteLOL, just kidding. I have a feeling you are thinking of a different quote.
BTW, I can appreciate Scooter's optimism, not that your wrong GEEP. At the same time ... the numbers are what the numbers are, and right now, if history is any indications, the 49ers don't have the numbers on their side (statistically speaking).
DeleteI will say this:
If Jimmy is deemed healthy enough to start after this bye week, these next 4 weeks, which include 2 prime-time games, are not only going to be definitive in terms of whether or not this football team has a realistic shot at sneaking into the playoffs, these next 4 weeks are also going to go a long ways towards defining Jimmy's 49ers legacy as well.
The main reason that I have such doubts in the 49ers ability to turn this season around, is because of their starting QB, Jimmy Garoppolo. Even though I have a lot of respect for Jimmy, and I recognize he has a remarkable record as a 49ers starting QB, it's my belief that, on just about any other team, without one of the league's best rushing attacks carrying his water on the offensive side of the football, and a defense that is consistently among the leagues best units, that Jimmy Garoppolo is a career .500 QB, at best!
And with the way in which the OL is struggling in both the running game, and the passing game, I just don't see Jimmy doing what I believe it's going to take at the QB position to get this football team back into contention. I simply don't believe Jimmy has the ability to lead this team any longer!
That's the sad truth about this team for me, and it's the reason I had held out so much hope that the 49ers would have finally moved on from Jimmy with his replacement. Rather than trying to run it back with one last desperate attempt at some kind of revenge tour 2.0, I had hoped that Kyle would have done everything in his power to give Trey Lance an opportunity to succeed, so that he could play and get better on a weekly basis, and hopefully keep this team within striking distance while he develops, so that he could potentially be in a position to make a deep postseason run this season, and of course also be in a better position to take this team to another level in 2022.
But, I still think there's a chance to salvage this season, and, IMO, that chance starts with Trey Lance.
DeleteIt's certainly not too late to make the move to Trey Lance, in fact, I always felt like the bye week was a logical spot to make the move to the rookie QB.
Then again, I never imagined Trey Lance would have been relegated to the scout team over the first month of the season, so ....
49Reasons
DeleteI would disagree with you only in STARTING Lance. IMO
KS should start by putting him in for 8-10 plays he's good at and force the D to account for his ability to run. Then each week add plays he's shown in practice that he, his receivers and O-line have shown they are comfortable running, (I Like establishing a run game and play action).
As far as Scooter goes, for the most part we agree and we're saying the same thing! I'm not as optimistic as he is and willing to point out why. That doesn't mean I want the 9ers to lose, but the odds are what they are and Scooter can't bring himself to admit the 9er have not played like a playoff team.
FACT: The Colts and Bears are games the 9ers must win, as they play Arizona and Rams next. I doubt even Scooter believe the 9ers will beat either, but rather than kicking the dog, and being a die hard 9er fan, he takes out his frustration on anyone that doesn't share his optimism. So I say GOOD FOR HIM, keep the faith bro, I'm not your enemy.
Well, at least we agree that Lance needs to be more involved even if Jimmy continues to start when heathy. Whatever they do, they need to find an offensive identity, and they need to stop sleep walking through the first have of ballgames.
DeleteThey need to get back to establishing the run, they need to get Aiyuk the football more often, and they need to find more of those explosive plays.
But if I am being honest, I don't think Kyle Shanahan's coaching style is particularly effective for young players, so my concerns about Trey Lance go further than whether or not he should start moving forward.
DeleteIt seems to me that the reason Kyle can't ever seem to take the leash off of his QB's is intrinsic to who Kyle is a HC. Some people think it's a power hungry thing, but I think he's just forever the pessimist, and that pessimism makes it hard for him to trust his QB's. Even when Garoppolo took the 49ers by storm in 2017, Kyle found ways to nitpick his flaws. His wife tells a story about how frustrating it was to go house hunting with Kyle, when they arrived in the Bay Area, because all he would do is point out every flaw he could find in the houses they looked at.
We all remember his foul mood in the leadup to the 2021 draft, but lets not forget about the reports that Kyle didn't see necessary to push back on, when John Lynch confirmed Kyle had been holding hope for Cousins - "there were some days that Kyle Shanahan was like in mourning, because I think everybody knows his master plan was to have Kirk Cousins come in eventually". What a sourpuss. This is who Kyle is. He rarely compliments his players without a heavy dose of criticism to go along with it.
I've said this a million times but I am going to say it again: This season didn't need to start out this way. It seemed clear to most people who follow this team that Kyle had finally lost all patience in Jimmy Garoppolo. He can't execute Kyle's offense consistently, and he simply can't stay healthy. Kyle was so desperate to replace Jimmy, he didn't make his pursuit for his replacement a secret. Heck, he went on a podcast and he didn't even bother to frame the situation in a way that made it seem as if he ultimately ended up with a QB situation that he was ultimately happy with, at the end of the day.
Anyways, I doubt he's ever going to change. He seems bound and determined to prove to everyone that he was right about Garoppolo, and that he was right about Trey Lance not being ready to win football games. In my eyes this is all starting to look like a self-fulfilling prophecy at this point, and I fear that Kyle is his own worst enemy!
49Reasons:
Delete"They need to get back to establishing the run, they need to get Aiyuk the football more often, and they need to find more of those explosive plays."
TRUE, I agree! But IMO, this a big reason why the 9ers are 2W-3L so far this season.....
* In 2019, the 9er offense converted on 3rd down 45% of the time. In 2021 the 3rd down conversion rate is 35%! In 2021 the 49ers rank 24th in the NFL with a 35.59 percent conversion rate on third down. An example showing how much JG has regressed as a QB.
* As good as the 9er D has been, they have only five forced turnovers (so far). in 2021. In 2019 the D had 27 for the season. (6th in the league). And as we all know, turnovers usually determines who wins the game.
If the 9ers are going to turn this season around, it's imperative they force more turnovers and take care of the ball on the offensive side.
"Whatever they do, they need to find an offensive identity."
Is KS not known as a coach that believe in his running game? I believe both Elijah Mitchell and Trey Sermon are healthy...Let's use them and re-establish the run game!
There's also the issue of PENALTIES! A problem that must be addressed (fixed), if the 9ers are going to turn this season around. I've made my feelings known, about how I feel about the 9ers O-Line RT and RG. If
they can't protect the QB, then find someone who can.
No QB can be successful laying on his backside!
I'm with you 100, GEEP.
Delete"As far as Scooter goes, for the most part we agree and we're saying the same thing! I'm not as optimistic as he is and willing to point out why. That doesn't mean I want the 9ers to lose, but the odds are what they are and Scooter can't bring himself to admit the 9er have not played like a playoff team."
DeleteAnd now you are putting words in my mouth.
The article was designed to outline the reasons to have some optimism. I have not said I believe the 49ers will make the playoffs, nor that they have played like a playoff team to date. They have not, and I have outlined this. And in order to make the playoffs they need to improve considerably, especially on offense, and have a difficult road ahead of them. Which is why I have said, repeatedly, I get having doubts about the team.
A lot of fans are currently focusing on how bad the team has been and projecting forward based on current record and performance, which has led to a lot of doom and gloom.
My point is just that while it will be difficult I believe the team still has it in them if they are as good as advertised before the season started.
Scooter, maybe you can clarify your position then, because it kind of seems like you are "hedging your bets", so to speak.
DeleteYou've pointed out "Reasons For Optimism" - another great article, BTW - but I still don't know how confident you are in this team's ability to turn this season around.
So let me ask you, Scooter: Based on what you've seen from this team over the last 14 months, do you think the 49ers are going to make the playoffs this year?
A) Yes
B) No
I choose option B.
Unfortunately, I feel like I've seen this movie before, and that is perhaps the most frustrating thing about this season so far.
I know Jimmy Garoppolo is injury prone. And I also know that he doesn't play very well when he's injured, especially with a lower leg injury, and it's the leg he uses to push off with. But I also know from past experience, that even when he's healthy, Jimmy has been wildly inconsistent.
Unfortunately, unlike in recent seasons, the 49ers rushing attack isn't among the best in the league, which means they are very unlikely to carry Jimmy's water for him when the passing game inevitably struggles, like we've seen so often already this season.
Not only that, while the defense has been pretty darn good, they are outside of the top 15 in points allowed, so this is another unit that is unlikely to come to Garoppolo's rescue, like they have so often in the past.
I wish I could convince myself that Trey Lance can be the savior this year, because to be frank ... I don't think Kyle Shanahan would allow that to happen, even if he had an opportunity to do so. I'm not saying that Kyle would purposely prevent Trey from saving this season, but I also think Kyle has a serious problem when it comes to trusting his QB's, and I also believe that if he was going to go to the rookie, he would have been far better off going all in on the Trey Lance from the first day of training camp.
Instead, he decided to roll with the undependable, and wildly inconstant QB in Jimmy G, and now his team is in a pickle. The transition to Trey Lance was always going to be difficult, but the decision to stick with Jimmy in 2021 has essentially made the transition for Trey Lance more difficult than it ever needed to be, IMO, and now the 49ers are paying the price.
Over and over again, I see Kyle Shanahan making decisions that for me, defy common sense. And over and over again, those decisions end up backfiring on Kyle, and I am afraid it's a pattern that may never end as long as he's the HC, and the top decision for this franchise.
So I hate to say it ... but I feel like I've seen this movie before, and it doesn't end well for Kyle, his team, and the 49ers fan base.
If I was a betting man I would currently bet against them making the playoffs this year. But at this stage I very much think it could still go either way. I know GEEP posted some stats about 2-3 teams making the playoffs, but (a) that was for a 16 game, 6 teams per conference season (b) a lot of 2-3 teams just aren't very good, while I believe the 49ers could and should be better than most of the 2-3 teams.
DeleteThe point of the article was very much just to outline that there are reasons to be optimistic though. To cut through the doom and gloom. And to point out the fate of the season has not been written yet - a lot of posts seem to be already surfacing about where the team went wrong this year and the changes needed for next season, rather than what they need to do better right now and need to change this season to make the playoffs.
OK Scooter...If you say so! As I said, for the most part we agree, good for you! I'm not as optimistic as you are, that doesn't mean, as you have implied, I've written the 9ers epitaph. In fact, I would point out that the most 9er fans, including you and posters on this blog, demand accountability from the 9er players, the coaches, including the HC, and the GM. BTW; you've posted the same opinion as me.
Delete* Scooter_McGOctober 16, 2021 at 1:38 PM
"I'm not saying there aren't reasons to have doubts."
So I guess you're not writing the 9ers epitaph when you have doubts?
BTW Scooter, I suspect the word "epitaph" does NOT convey the meaning you intended?
Definition of epitaph: "something by which a person, time, or event will be remembered." I Don't believe I have done something important enough to be remembered for. Unless you mean "A short poem intended for (or imagined as) an inscription on a tombstone and often serving as a brief elegy." LOL
* Just one question, why are you upset when I post facts that you can't, or don't disagree with, as to why the 9ers are a 2W-3L team and the next 2 games are must win games for the reasons I posted? What are the odds for the 9ers making the playoffs if they lose the next 2 games, then lose to Arizona and the Rams? You
point out 7 teams will make the playoffs, so what are the odds of a 3W-6L making the playoffs. If they lose to the colts, Bears, Arizon and Rams, they're a 2W-7L
teams. Oh no, there's that epitaph thing again....
* Rather than refute the facts, you say I'm "putting words in your mouth," which is difficult to do since you've not address the facts I've posted, so may I suggest to you sir, you are doing what's known as psychological projection and raises the question, are you writing the 9er epitaph?
Bottom line, lets agree to disagree and leave it at that, we've both got more important things to do.
Epitaph meaning: a phrase or form of words written in memory of a person who has died, especially as an inscription on a tombstone.
DeleteIn the context I used it I think it was pretty clear I meant people were writing as if the 49ers chances of making the playoffs were basically gone/ dead.
"Just one question, why are you upset when I post facts that you can't, or don't disagree with, as to why the 9ers are a 2W-3L team and the next 2 games are must win games for the reasons I posted?"
DeleteI'm not upset about it. You got upset when I said "but sure has felt the past couple of weeks that a large segment of 49ers fans have already written the epitaph of the 49ers 2021 season." Obviously this statement resonated with you and you therefore took objection to it. But then outlined how you'd be happy to eat crow if you are wrong about the 49ers chances. What am I supposed to think you mean based on that?
As for responding to your "facts", you are making hypotheticals based on projecting the team to lose over the next few weeks. Maybe they will lose those games, maybe they won't. The more they lose, the less likely it is they make the playoffs. But I don't see any reason for that conjecture right now. If the team fixes some correctable issues and is as good as we believed them to be at the start of the season, those are all winnable games.
I gotcha Scooter, and BTW, I do appreciate where you are coming from, and I am always impressed with your substance and style. I assume that you have a background in writing or journalism or both, because I am always impressed with your stuff, and I am not easily impressed. In fact, I'd say your stuff is better than at least 80% of the stuff I read on other sites, and that includes some of the most well known beat writers.
DeleteSo Cheers!
Thanks 49reasons, appreciate it.
DeleteI'm not in journalism nor undertaken any study in it, but I do write a lot of reports for my work - in a very different industry!
Scooter
Delete"You got upset when I said, but sure has felt the past couple of weeks that a large segment of 49ers fans have already written the epitaph of the 49ers 2021 season."
Thanks Scooter for proving my point. Since I'm NOT a
49er fan that has written the 9er's epitaph for the 2021 season, I have nothing to be upset about! And as
previously stated, the only difference between between
us is I'm not as optimistic as you!
"Obviously this statement resonated with you and you therefore took objection to it." Now who's making assumptions Scooter? How can it be obvious, let alone resonate, when it does NOT exist? You sir. are defeating your own conjecture by stating facts not in evidence. I assure you I'm not dead, there's no tombstone to put an inscription on, nor have I said something important enough to be remember by! So by you're own definition, there is no EPITAPH written by me.
"As for responding to your "facts", you are making hypotheticals based on projecting the team to lose over the next few weeks. Maybe they will lose those games, maybe they won't.
It remains TBD if it is hypothetical or not. That doesn't mean I want the 9ers to lose, but if I'm right, it's no longer hypothetical, then it becomes prescient and I'd be curious to know what you would call it?
"Since I'm NOT a 49er fan that has written the 9er's epitaph for the 2021 season, I have nothing to be upset about!"
DeleteCool. Makes one wonder why you reacted to my comment the way you did then.
"How can it be obvious, let alone resonate, when it does NOT exist?"
Your comments about how bad their chances are, and how you'd eat crow if you were wrong and they make the playoffs, seemed to be a pretty strong indication you were at least pretty close to giving them up for dead. But hey, if that wasn't what you meant, cool.
"I assure you I'm not dead, there's no tombstone to put an inscription on, nor have I said something important enough to be remember by!"
I see we aren't big on figurative speaking here. Tell me, what do you think I meant by that?
"It remains TBD if it is hypothetical or not."
No, it doesn't. It is a hypothetical future, plain and simple, no TBD about it. If in a few weeks they lose those games it would no longer be hypothetical, it would be the past and fact. But as of right now it is hypothetical. If they do indeed lose those games, it doesn't make you prescient, it just means you guessed right. Goodo.
I for one have been critical of KS play calling, I call it a slump. I am 100 percent behind KS as I know slumps end. When an offense is sputtering, going for it on fourth down isn't the best call. Having a newbie throw a backwards pass to the QB is not what I call a good call. Running your QB 16 times is going to get your QB hurt I think that is bad play calling. There is no doubt players have failed to execute, and have ended drives with penalties and dropped balls, however that's been the case for the last 8 years, in 2019 KS overcame those problems. His play calling during the GB playoff game was as good as it gets...sometimes I wonder if he isn't trying to recapture that standard. Cant score early and cant defend late is the story so far this year. Defenses have done what they need to do to hinder KS run game...time to adjust and make them pay for stopping the run. Is it a bad play when it fails - nope. This team is talented enough for the playoffs, its KS job to get them there...no one else. Is KS on the hot seat-I should hope not.
ReplyDeleteI expect the 49ers to get out of their sleep walk after the bye. We have Greenlaw and possibly Hurd ready to help by the 8th game. Garoppolo should be able to play along with Kittle in a few weeks.
ReplyDeleteThis team is good enough for strong stand going forward.
The games we lost, have not been blowouts. And the loss against the undefeated Cards was kept close until the 2nd half. Albeit, with a raw rookie QB.
This team is not falling apart and collapsing. 9-10 wins is still a good projection for 2021. Of course, that may not guarantee a playoff spot unless the Cards and Rams have a downward trajectory, But perhaps it helps Shanahan keep his job.
With 7 teams making the playoffs this year there is an improved chance that one division can get three teams in the playoffs.
DeleteAn article over on NN reminded everyone that head coaches' contracts are generally fully guaranteed. KS just recently (2020 I believe) got a new six-year contract at a rumored amount of over $10 million annually. If all of this is true, it will add significantly to the difficulty in terminating KS early unless there is really gross negligence or some type of scandal (ala Gruden).
DeleteYeah, they aren't sacking Shanahan any time soon.
DeleteBTW, cubus, you're right about Kyle's contract, but Jed York can certainly afford to cut him if he wanted to, and coach's salaries don't count against the salary cap.
DeleteBut the smart move would be to trade Kyle Shanahan!
We've seen teams do that before. Imagine having Trey Lance AND one or two of those first round picks that they gave up in order to draft him.
Now, Kyle shouldn't be going anywhere right now, as there's still a chance that he gets this team turned around this season. HOWEVER, if the 49ers end up missing the playoffs for the 4th time in Kyle's first 5 seasons, well then everything should probably be on the table, IMO, because this team frankly has way too much talent to keep posting losing seasons!
"With 7 teams making the playoffs this year there is an improved chance that one division can get three teams in the playoffs"
ReplyDeleteThat's true, but the 49ers have to stop getting off to these slow starts in the first halves of these games, because here is a very disturbing statistic that shows just how important it is for Kyle and Jimmy to start getting off to better starts in the first half:
KYLE SHANAHAN is 0-19 as a HC when his team is down at halftime by 7 or more points. Yikes!
An interesting article spelling out 9er problems experienced
ReplyDeletein the 2021 season, that need to be corrected.
https://www.ninersnation.com/2021/10/17/22730569/golden-nuggets-what-do-we-do-with-ourselves-during-the-bye-week
Thx for the write-up Scooter and I remain optimistic..... but yes, the holding penalties and OL play need to improve- and getting Mitchell and Hasty back will help.
ReplyDeleteI was at the AZ game (3rd time now being there) and it remains a crappy place to see a game in my opinion with their piped-in chants, etc... annoying.
They had their chances... D played well and Lance will learn from it- I don't like giving Juice the ball on short- yardage plays, never have.
We beat the Colts by 10ish and turn the season around....