Lots of talking heads out there critical of the 49ers, and how Shanny's seat is getting warm. Personally, I think it's cool as a sunny fall breeze. Whether it's the quarterback situation or trade scenarios, everyone has an opinion. Let's hear them!
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At the risk of writing an epitaph on the 9ers 2020 seasons
ReplyDeletetombstone! The 9ers are a 2W-3L team and IMO, the next two 9er games are critical for a winning season.
If the 9ers lose to either the Colts or Bears, with their next two games against Arizona (6W-0L) and the Rams (5W-1L), They could be 3W-6L or 2W-7L if they lose all four games.
If they beat both the Colts and Bears, they'll be 5w-3L.
Colts: The 9er should beat the Colts.
On paper, the Colts have one of the best offensive lines in the league, but the Colts O-Line needs to get healthy.
LG Quenton Nelson is still recovering from an offseason injury, right tackle Smith missed Week 2, and new starting LT Eric Fisher is still not 100% following last year’s season-ending Achilles rupture.
The Colts QB Carson Wentz, like the 9ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo, has a problem with injuries. Now, it's his ankle injury. Wentz staying healthy is obviously essential for the Colts to have a successful season.
The outcome of the game will likely depend on which QB has the better game and which team is guilty of committing the most mistakes.
The 9er at the Bears:
I see this game as a game either team could win, but home field advantage goes to the Bears. The outcome will rest on the 9er D shutting down the Bears offense, and which D has the most sacks. Chicago's OLB's Khalil Mack and Robert Quinn VS the 9ers DE Nick Bosa, Dee ford and Arik Armstead.
For the 9ers to beat either Arizona, or the Rams, JG would have to get off to a fast start and play his best game of the 2021 season. And the D would have to continue giving the
offense a chance to win and finally get 1-2 turnovers.
Could the 9ers win? Yes, as much as I'd like to see it, I don't see JG playing much better than he has so far this season.
Yes, how the team comes out of the bye will be critical.
DeleteRealistically, the team needs to go 8-4 at a minimum to make the playoffs.
At the beginning of the year it wouldn't have been that hard to believe they would. The team needs to play up to theur ability on both sides of the ball.
"Realistically, the team needs to go 8-4 at a minimum to make the playoffs?"
Delete* 8W-4L? A TYPO? I think you mean 8W-9L? * I'll be surprised If the 9ers make the playoffs, but beggars can't be choosey so if that gets them into the playoffs...I'LL TAKE IT AND NEVER LOOK BACK!
* Just one caveat: If the 9ers are going to make it to the playoffs, someone (Aaron Bank, or Jaylon), needs to step up and replace Brunskill, and JG will need to return to his 2019 form! Otherwise, it will be one and done for the 9ers.
No. There are 12 games remaining. I think they need to win 8 of them.
DeleteThat was my assessment as well, Scooter. 8-4.
DeleteOK, got it. I agree, 8 wins would get them in the playoffs. But "Realistically" do you believe the 9ers can actually win 8 out of the next 12 games?
Delete49er remaining schedule:
Colts at hime this Sun. A W for 9ers
Bears at Chicago. A push, 9er need a win?
Arizona at home. 9er L
Rams at home. 9er L
Panthers at home. 9er W
Vikings at home. A push, 9ers need a win
Seattle at Seattle. 9er L
Bengals at Cincinatti 9er L
Atlanta at home. 9er W
Titans at Tennessee. 49er L
Houston at home. 9er W
Rams at LA. 9er L
That leaves the 9er 6W-6L for the remaining 12 games and that's counting as Wins against the Bears and Vikings.
Where do you see 9er winning that I don't?
All depends on which team comes back after the bye. The one whose offense was struggling badly to score points, or one with an offense back in sync?
DeleteIf the team plays like they are capable of, this is my thoughts:
- They should be able to go at least 1-2 in the remaining Rams and Cardinals games.
- They should beat the Colts and Bears the next two weeks. I'm not sure what you are seeing in the Bears that worries you... so long as the 49ers show up to play.
- They should beat the Falcons and Texans fairly easily.
That's 5-2, which means they need to go 3-2 in the other 5 games vs the Panthers, Seahawks, Bengals, Titans and Vikings. Again, if they play as they are capable, that is doable.
Now this is all reliant on the 49ers turning things around on offense after the bye week, and continuing to play well on defense for the most part. As I have outlined previously, the issues on offense are all execution based, and pretty easily correctable with a little bit of accountability and locking in on the mental side of things from the players. Will they? We'll have to wait and see.
I will say the record you have the 49ers with, and the Ws vs Ls you have, are all based on the 49ers being a bad team.
DeleteScooter
DeleteAs I said before, you're more optimistic than I am.
My assessment of the 9ers being a poor (not bad) team
is based on what I've seen so far this season.
If the 9ers come out of the bye week and return to something close to what they're capable of (like they were in 2019, I'd agree with you. But like you said,
"we'll have to wait and see." Hope does spring eternal....At least until they're eliminated.
Sure. If the team we saw the first five weeks is indicative of what the team is, they are a bad team and won't make the playoffs (nor would they deserve to).
DeleteFWIW - if the Chiefs are what we saw the first five weeks of the season they are a bad team to. Do you believe they are a bad team, or a good team that has gotten off to a slow start?
Slow starts happen to a handful of playoff calibre teams every year. Sometimes the team is able to overcome it, sometimes not.
I believe the 49ers are a better team than what they showed the first five weeks.
Scooter
DeleteLots of IF's Scooter, too many for me! While I don't disagree with what you're saying, I know that it is possible. But I have to see it happen, or to me they are what they show themselves to be on the field and yes, That includes the Chiefs. Every year there are teams that have the talent to be contenders, but fail to do so. As I said before, I think we're saying the same thing, I'm just not as optimistic as you are. IMO the next 2 games against the Colts and Bears are must win games. If the 9ers win both and the offense
looks like it's established an identity as a successful run first team, then maybe, as you say, they just got off to a slow start. But they have to
S H O W M E they can do it, before I'll believe
again.
There is really only one if. If the team is who we've seen so for or what we thought they were before the season.
DeleteAre we talking "cool as a summer breeze" in Nor-Cal, or the Louisiana Bayous?
ReplyDeleteIf this season continues to go the way it has, and the 49ers do end up missing the playoffs for the 4th time in Kyle's 5-year tenure, I think John Lynch is going to end up being the fall guy, which unfortunately seems a little unfair because I don't know much influence John really has as a decision maker. The 49ers current power structure is a little bit unconventional, IMO, so I think Kyle has cleverly positioned himself in a way that effectively protects his job security for now.
I think over the next few years, Kyle's job security, as well as his legacy as a HC, are both directly tied to the same thing - Trey Lance's development!
In fact, there may as well be a picture of Trey Lance wearing a 49ers uniform, permanently attached to Kyle Shanahan's Wikipedia page between now, and the remainder of eternity!
I changed it to leave no doubt! Ha!
Deletehah, good work Razor!
DeleteWhat changes would improve the 9ers chances of beating both
ReplyDeletethe Colts and Bears, as well as Arizona and Rams?
IMO, re-establishing a dominant running game with Mitchell and Sermon, should alleviate the following 9er problems.
1) Takes pressure off JG to carry the offense.
2) Allows both RG Daniel Brunskill and RT Mike McGlinchey to run block, keeping JG upright and healthy VS being pressured and sacked.
3) Do better job of Getting both Kittle and Aiyuk the ball.
4) Get the offense off to a better start and score points, so JG is not forced to pass and play catch up.
5) the defense gets more turnovers. So far they only have 2 takeaways and one INT.
6) Staying healthy and getting players back from IR will also help.
Man, I maintain a healthy Mitchell with 100 yards on the ground would do wonders!
DeleteYep
DeleteRazor
DeleteThe key to beating the Colts, IMO, is 1) The 9er D stopping RB Jonathan Taylor (make the colts offense 1 dimensional) and shut down WR Pittman. 2) Don't let Buckner control the LOS, or the Colts D get to JG.
3) Bosa, Ford and Armstead get to Wentz and the 9er get a couple of take aways.....
9ers 21----Colts 17
The 49ers need to establish an offensive identity, that's for sure. And it seems like re-establishing their juggernaut rushing attack is naturally their best chance at regaining their offensive footing, but there are a couple problems with that approach right now:
ReplyDelete- They are missing a key cog in the running game - George Kittle! His run-blocking is key factor in the run game.
- Another key factor in the run game is that opposing defenses don't respect Garoppolo's ability to beat them thru the air. This isn't anything new, but teams are deploying defensive fronts like the “gap-and-a-half” defensive front that the Packers used, which are allowing the second and third level defenders to overlap in their run-fit assignments, effectively stuffing the 49ers rushing attack. The 49ers are seeing a lot of congested passing lanes within 10 yards of the LOS, as defenses are using a lot of 2-high coverage shells, which also allows their corners and safeties to fit the run, and force the 49ers run-game laterally to the boundary.
But I'm not putting this all on Jimmy G! I truly felt like Kyle Shanahan needed to evolve his running game this season, and I said so repeatedly, both before and after the draft. I envisioned an offensive scheme that involved Trey Lance and a number of zone-read concepts, combined with a lot of play-action and more explosive downfield passes, but obviously that's not happening anytime soon.
Anyways, Kyle needs to figure out a way to get his WR's to stop dropping passes, and for crying out loud, Kyle needs to figure out a way to get Brandon Aiyuk more involved in this offense!
The good news is that Elijah Mitchell is getting healthy, because his speed to the outside makes a difference in this rushing attack, and the 49ers are supposed to be getting JaMycal Hasty back this week as well, so hopefully they can start moving the football on the ground again, and get back to controlling the game clock. But I truly feel like, until the 49ers passing attack can make opposing defenses pay the price for selling out against the run, we're going to see the Niners' run game continue to have issues, and frankly, it's not helping that both Alex Mack and Dan Brunskill aren't getting any push at the point of attack! We all knew the Brunskill was a problem at RG, but what on god's green earth happened to Alex Mack? Talk about falling off of a cliff!
BTW guys, you will be happy to know that the above post is the last time I am going to complain about Kyle's use of Trey Lance for at least the next 2 weeks. It might be worth re-assessing the Niners' QB situation after the trade deadline on 11/2, which coincides with the leadup to week 9's Arizona @ 49ers game on 11/7.
DeleteHowever, I can't absolutely promise that was my last Jimmy G/Trey Lance post until then, because it's possible that something major could happen to change the equation between now and then, knock-on-wood!
By the way, don't we need to come up with a good nickname for Trey Lance? You're sleeping on the job, Razor, lol.
49Reasons
ReplyDeleteKittle will be missed, both for his blocking and catching passes, but don't forget Juice! with the bye week, if KS is in fact an offensive genius, he's had time to adjust the 9ers running game to offset the oppositions defensive fronts.
The 9ers are rested and playing at home. Advantage 9ers D.
I look for Bosa, Ford and Armstead to get to Wentz and force an INT, or two. I also look for the 9er D to control the Colts RB Taylor and WR Pitts.
IMO, the one Colt D player the 9er O-Line must control is Buckner. He'll be looking to make a statement, that the 9er
FO made a mistake trading him and neither Brunskill or McGlinchey can stop him from getting to JG.
GEEP, I probably should have mentioned Juice as well. The only reason I didn't is because he's been involved the last few weeks, and as great as he is of a football player, he hasn't been able to make a huge difference, no disrespect to him, because he's a fantastic football player.
DeleteJoe Staley recently said that Juszczyk is the most versatile offensive player he's ever played with.
But dang his last name is hard to spell, lol.
Yah, no excuses for Kyle this week, that's for sure! At home, coming out of a bye week, with a "healthy" Garoppolo, and 3 healthy RB's. And let's face it, the OL has been healthy for the most part - knock on wood.
DeleteSo yah, let's see what you got, Kyle, because the stakes couldn't be much higher for a week 7 game - nationally televised, in prime-time .... whoa Nelly!
This bothers me - Shanahan said that veteran offensive lineman Tom Compton would be the team’s first option if they moved on from Brunskill:
Delete“In a game, yeah. Compton is so versatile. That’s why he’s definitely always up; he’s earned that too with how he played throughout training camp, but Compton also can help out (at tackle maybe?) He’s played tackle in this league, he’s played guard in this league, so he’s always a good guy to have up, that I would never hesitate to start. If someone got hurt long-term, then we decide with the other guys.”
Tom Compton? Really?
Also, is it me, or is it really hard to understand exactly what Kyle is trying to say, from time to time?
49Reasons: I think sometimes KS tongue gets in the way of his eye-tooth and he can't see what he's saying? lol
DeleteLevi's Stadium set for a significant soaking before, during 49ers-Colts SNF game....
DeleteLooks like we'll be needing rain gear for this game...
Oh well, we need the rain and hopefully it will dump lots of snow at Tahoe for ski season.
49ers OC Mike McDaniel gives high praise to rookie OL Jaylon Moore.
ReplyDeleteLooks like TW may not play in the 9er VS Colts game?
In 49ers offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel’s weekly media availability, he gave a ringing endorsement of Moore’s readiness if he is asked to take the bulk of snaps at left tackle this season.....
https://sports.yahoo.com/m/d6e51dc6-2def-352d-9872-173ea1d30a5d/49ers-oc-mike-mcdaniel-gives.html
I wonder how he is at playing RG, or RT?
Trent Williams day to day with ankle sprain.
ReplyDelete49ers left tackle Trent Williams didn’t practice on Wednesday with an ankle issue and wasn’t on the field for practice during the media window on Thursday either.
But it doesn’t appear the injury is too serious.
San Francisco announced on Thursday afternoon that Williams is day-to-day with an ankle sprain.
With the 49ers coming off their bye, Williams was practicing on Monday. He’s also been listed with an elbow issue on the injury report, but he’s started all five of San Francisco’s games so far in 2021
https://sports.yahoo.com/trent-williams-day-day-ankle-214542308.html
Week 7 represents possible turning point in 49ers QB situation.
ReplyDeletehttps://sports.yahoo.com/week-7-represents-possible-turning-034241781.html
Jimmy Garoppolo needs a get-right game. The Week 7 stars are aligning to provide him an opportunity to have the big performance he and the 49ers offense desperately need. San Francisco hosts the Colts and their abysmal pass defense Sunday night at Levi’s Stadium. The 49ers are coming off a bye, and Garoppolo has had a chance to fully recover from a calf injury that kept him out for Week 5. A failure to take advantage of Sunday’s favorable matchup could lead to a shakeup in the 49ers’ quarterback room.
Garoppolo is the 49ers’ starting quarterback as long as he gives the 49ers the best chance to win. That’s been the M.O. for head coach Kyle Shanahan since before training camp started, and he’s never deviated from that message.
Jimmy Garoppolo needs a get-right game. The Week 7 stars are aligning to provide him an opportunity to have the big performance he and the 49ers offense desperately need. San Francisco hosts the Colts and their abysmal pass defense Sunday night at Levi’s Stadium. The 49ers are coming off a bye, and Garoppolo has had a chance to fully recover from a calf injury that kept him out for Week 5. A failure to take advantage of Sunday’s favorable matchup could lead to a shakeup in the 49ers’ quarterback room.
Garoppolo is the 49ers’ starting quarterback as long as he gives the 49ers the best chance to win. That’s been the M.O. for head coach Kyle Shanahan since before training camp started, and he’s never deviated from that message.
Jimmy Garoppolo needs a get-right game. The Week 7 stars are aligning to provide him an opportunity to have the big performance he and the 49ers offense desperately need. San Francisco hosts the Colts and their abysmal pass defense Sunday night at Levi’s Stadium. The 49ers are coming off a bye, and Garoppolo has had a chance to fully recover from a calf injury that kept him out for Week 5. A failure to take advantage of Sunday’s favorable matchup could lead to a shakeup in the 49ers’ quarterback room.
Garoppolo is the 49ers’ starting quarterback as long as he gives the 49ers the best chance to win. That’s been the M.O. for head coach Kyle Shanahan since before training camp started, and he’s never deviated from that message.
Sunday will be the first real test of whether Garoppolo does give San Francisco the best chance to win, because if the 49ers offense can’t move the ball against the Colts, it’s hard to come up with a team they will find yards against.
Indianapolis’ defense is 20th in passing yards allowed, 31st in passing touchdowns, 27th in net passing yards per attempt, 20th in third-down conversion rate and 21st in yards per play. Pro Football Focus has them No. 28 in coverage and their pass rush is No. 23. Football Outsiders’ DVOA has their pass defense ranked 29th in the league.
On top of a weak pass defense, their run defense is one of the league’s best. They’re No. 1 in DVOA and No. 3 per PFF. Garoppolo is going to need to shoulder most of the load for the 49ers’ offense, especially if their run game isn’t working.
It’s not even going to come down to whether San Francisco wins. It’s about their offensive ceiling. It’s hard to imagine scenarios where they do get standout performances on that side of the ball if Sunday doesn’t yield good production. That would further call into question the notion that Garoppolo gives the 49ers the best chance to win games.
Their offense hasn’t just been going through some hiccups, it’s been downright bad given the standard set since Shanahan took over. In the 10 quarters between Week 2 and the first half of Week 4, San Francisco’s offense was averaging a paltry 4.8 yards per play. Last year they were at 5.7 with Nick Mullens and CJ Beathard combining to start more than half the games. In 2019 the Garoppolo-led offense averaged 6.0 yards per play. They were even at 5.8 in a disastrous 2018 campaign.
The million dollar question is: How will the gusty wind and driving rain affect Jimmy Garoppolo?
ReplyDeleteAlso: if the weather reports are accurate, meaning Levi's Stadium experiences 35-40 mph wind gusts, and a heavy downpour of rain, on Sunday night ... does that create an advantage for one team over the other, or is it a wash (pardon the pun)?
49Reasons
DeleteI would assume the Colts are a team used to playing in
bad weather? Razor should know more about the weather
in Indianapolis and if it affected by Lake Michigan?
With the amount of weather moving thru the bay area the next few day, it also raises the question of how much of it will impact the Chicago area next Sunday for the 9ers VS Bears game? I would expect this time of year it will dump some snow, and how that will affect the 9ers?
Lucas Oil Stadium does have a retractable roof, so the Colts don't have to deal with the elements when they play at home. The 49ers obviously have an open air stadium, but it's the Bay Area.
DeleteI'm looking at it from a standpoint of, how their play styles of play could potentially be advantageous in poor weather conditions.
Statistically, these two teams are averaging nearly identical YPG - both rushing and passing.
Passing wise, Garoppolo is a quick game specialist, and most of his attempts travel very short distances thru the air, so in windy, rainy conditions, that's probably a plus.
However, I think Wentz only has one TO so far this season, so he's done a better job than Jimmy at ball security.
Those are just a couple of the reasons that this game seems very evenly matched to me, at least in theory, while taking the forecasted weather into account.
Also, the Colts probably have the better place kicker right now, so if the game comes down to kicking a FG in the rain ... we'd have to give the edge to the Colts .... except for the fact that the home field advantage goes to the 49ers, so even that might be a push.
BTW guys, I've heard this bogus excuse about Brandon Aiyuk's inability to create separation, as being a reason that he's not being targeted.
ReplyDeleteHow come Ja'marr Chase is the current front runner for OROY, and has over 500 yards receiving when he's only averaging 1/10 of a yard more separation than Aiyuk per route run?
Because Aiyuk's "lack of separation" is a nonsense excuse, that's why ... just total BS!
49Reason
ReplyDeleteNot making excuses for Aiyuk, but the problem may be he had a hamstring problem and may be physically fit, but not mentally. He may not be willing to plant a foot and push off, when making his cut.
Rounding off his cut(s) allows the DB to stay on his hip so he doesn't get separation? KS see's that and thinks he's dogging it.
Perhaps, GEEP. I see what you're saying. I just don't think this whole thing smells quite right, in part because what we've been told doesn't square with the facts, IMO.
Delete