by Mood Indigo
The Niners will almost certainly pick a QB in Thursday’s draft. According to Jeremy Fowler of ESPN, “they have wrapped up their draft meetings officially. They're ready to make this pick...”, which is hardly surprising news at this stage of the game.
All three candidates, Jones, Fields and Lance, are excellent QBs who have yet to reach their potential. Two of them are high-level athletic traits while the third has superior pocket passing skills at this stage. Only one of the three has played more than twenty games in college. More than any other team sports, the success of a rookie football player depends on the team, scheme and coaching. There is a reason why almost half the QBs drafted in the first round never develop into a long-term starter.
The QB the Niners pick will have the highest chances of success in this draft. Barring any disaster, Niners could win a Super Bowl with any one of them. However, purely from a statistical viewpoint, it is likely that only one (or maybe two) of these three can put the Niners in a position to contend year-after-year for a dozen years or more – i.e., be the young franchise QB.
Shanahan has said repeatedly in interviews that there are only a handful of QBs at any time that fit this mold of special QBs. With this trade, the Niners have not only put themselves in a position to strengthen the QB room as has been their publicly-stated goal, but to grab one of those special QBs that Shanahan has coveted throughout his coaching career of over a dozen years. This gamble has been made possible by their skill at fitting a top-10 roster under the cap, historically bad injury problems, and the support from the ownership. In the process, they gained control of the QB selection process from #3 onwards, and essentially turned the second pro days into private workouts.
Shanhan has also stressed the importance of coaching up the young QBs. He has openly talked about Mahomes learning behind Smith. With a sizable contract extension, Shanahan feels no pressure to win with his young QB while he has a proven vet available. The measurables of these three QBs have been analyzed but everything goes out through the window when the rookie gets behind the center against the Niners defense in camp. The intensity and speed of the game goes up notch by notch as they progress from pre-season games to regular season and to post-season play. I can see Shanahan and Scangarello assessing the progress of the rookie QB at each stage and recalibrating the coaching process.
I followed the assessments of the three QBs by former players (Kurt Warner’s and J.T. O’Sullivan’s YouTube channels, interviews with Kirk Morrison, Steve Young, and several others), and a few non-player analysts like Greg Cossell and Ted Nguyen. There is no doubt in anyone’s mind that Fields and Lance are closer than Jones to Elway and Mahomes who Shanahan has unequivocally stated as his desired QB prototypes. These two are not dual-threat QBs in the mold of Newton, RG3 or Kaep. They are pocket QBs who can run when needed. Fields may have slightly stronger arm, greater accuracy, and a demonstrated ability to play injured against high-level defense. Lance has more of a “live arm” but also shows the discipline to work from the pocket and make difficult throws. His accuracy may not be as good as Jones or Fields but as Josh Allen has shown, with good coaching and hard work by the QB, the accuracy can be improved.
The choice between these two will not be based on pro-readiness -- no QB comes out of college pro-ready. The successful ones adapt to NFL speed and talent rapidly with hard work and the willingness and ability to learn. These intangibles, to my mind, will be the primary criteria that will help Shanhan make the final decision. And his trusted agent in this regard has been his old QB for a brief time in Washington -- John Beck. Additionally, they also have the input of a valuable disinterested party in Quincy Avery who has coached both players.
Lance’s first pro day apparently showed significant improvement in his footwork from the 2019 season. Two weeks later Niners traded up to the #3 draft spot. Subsequently, the Niners requested Lance to work with Beck. I’d guess that ShanaLynch have spent most of the last two weeks in relative evaluation of these two. The word is that Shanhan has sought QB evaluations from McDaniel, Scangarello and Slowik but no coaches know of his decision. Barrows had his phone call to Shanahan the Elder returned from the 49er HQ indicating that the former has been in the mix onsite for QB evaluation.
From reading the signs, I came to the same conclusion as Razor and Scooter that the likely pick is Trey Lance -- but picking Justin Fields will not come as a surprise. It would be a surprise if the Jets go with Fields and the Niners have to pick between Lance and Wilson. Still, I have always thought that the three QBs that ShanaLynch have had in mind were Wilson, Fields and Lance.
After the top two players, there could be some wild swings on tight end. Some teams have a late Day 3 grade on Brevin Jordan of Miami, as he’s not come across well in interviews, and many feel he’ll always be more athlete than football player.
ReplyDeleteConversely, Tre’ McKitty has a lot of upward momentum, and teams like him a lot more than those on the outside. McKitty could end up in the third round. John Bates is another likely to be selected higher than most presently predict.
Considering the overall lack of depth in this draft, the UDFA market will be hot next Saturday once the seventh round is complete. Players not drafted are expected to be offered large signing bonuses and high amounts of “Paragraph 5” salary.
Off-the-record negotiations have already begun as a few teams have been telling players or their representatives, “We will offer you XYZ to sign with us after the draft if you are not selected.” Expect the top UDFAs to receive signing bonuses in the range of $50,000 and P5 money in excess of $100,000.
Remember Sutton Smith, the two-time All-American from Northern Illinois and former sixth-round pick of the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2019? Smith led the nation ins sacks (14) as a sophomore and tackles for loss (27) during his junior campaign. Woefully undersized for an NFL edge rusher, Smith spent time on four different practice squads in 2019 and was out of the league last year.
Smith is getting a second chance at life in the NFL but at a different position. Smith has transitioned to fullback, and his workout film has caught the eye of several teams who feel he could be a Kyle Juszczyk-type player.
-Tony Pauline
Smith's transition, if successful, would be similar to Bruce Miller who was a LB in college, IIRC.
DeleteNiners now have over 80 players signed. They could cut one or two, but doesn't look like they will be signing many UDFAs.
Whoever it is will have the rare opportunity to get drafted early onto a talented squad. Whoever the guy is I sincerely hope that the Niners sit him for at least a year regardless of the season.
ReplyDeleteNicely done Mood
Thanks, Under. Didn't really add anything new, but tried to tie things together. There is so much noise being generated by national press who seem happy just muddying the waters.
DeleteSince you brought up the important issue of a rookie QB sitting behind a starter for at least a year, I am pasting a link to excerpts from an interview of Aaron Rodgers from 10 years ago of the value of the three years he sat behind Favre:
https://www.espn.com/blog/afcsouth/post/_/id/30755/rodgers-luck-could-benefit-from-sitting
"And this is interesting. The Patriots have been calling around in the top 10, and the teams that have gotten those calls, believe New England's target could be Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields."
ReplyDeleteIt's interesting Razor, but hardly surprising, right?
DeleteI feel like the Patriots are going to go hard for Justin Fields, if he slides past 3, but I doubt they make it happen. And I doubt they have much interest in Jones, at least as a top 15 pick. Maybe they trade back and hope Mac falls to them closer to the bottom of round 1.
I feel confident in my belief that the Niners are the only team who have Mac Jones rated as one of the top 4 QB prospects. The only question for me is whether the Falcons will take Fields or Lance (if Mac goes 3), or perhaps even Pitts. In fact, unless the Falcons want Pitts bad enough not to take any chances, I personally would actually be kind of surprised if somebody doesn't move up and take Fields at the #4 spot, provided the Niners and Falcons take a pass on him, which would be hard for me to believe.
And Wouldn't that be a double whammy, watching the 49ers lose the 3rd best QB prospect (or 2nd in my view) and their best potential trade partner for Jimmy G, all in one fell swoop?
And, BTW, I've heard that the Pats have already made a fairly strong offer for Jimmy G, for whatever that's worth.
And BTW Razor, it seems like Walter football is piggy backing off my Mac Jones analysis, almost verbatim. They have him slipping to #20 in both Walt's and Charlie's final mock drafts.
Speaking of WalterFootball, they sought opinions on where Mac Jones fits in the draft, from 5 different NFL teams. According to them (and I have no reason to believe they are lying) three teams had a 4th round grade on Jones, One team had him on the bubble between rounds 2 and 3, and one team had a solid 2nd round grade on Jones. Not a single team had a 1st round grade on Mac Jones.
DeleteOne area scout refered to Jones as "a stronger-armed Jake Fromm", stating that "he distributes the ball well to all of those great weapons", and said that "Jones has some ability, his arm is good enough, a little stronger than Jake's". The scout also said that "Mac can anticipate, and sees the field well." Finally, the scout said that he thought "Mac could have a career in the NFL similar to Matt Barkley."
Another team source who graded Jones had a 4th round grade on him, and said they felt he was a shorter AJ McCarron .... Ha, how about that? I promise I did not see this before I compared Jones to McCarron.
The team source went on to say that, similar to McCarron, Jones was surrounded with a phenomenal set of WR's, a tough OL with future early-round picks, and a dynamic running game.
The 49ers have done a brilliant job of inflating Mac Jones' draft stock. I think this is becoming an embarrassing spectacle for my 49ERD, and if the Niners take Jones, I will break something, which is why I can't watch the draft on my beautiful, expensive TV.
I'm OUT!
If Justin Fields isn't in the conversation for the 49ers at #3, and/or there is still a dissagreement with who they should select at #3, well then Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch are clearly in way over the heads when it comes to the QB position, and it's just a matter of time until this entire thing falls apart!
DeletePeace out!
Jones could be a short term fix but this pick will be about the next 10 years and a long term solution. Trey Lance!
ReplyDeleteDoes anyone really believe that York will push for Jones? Hell no! No one is going to buy his jersey. Lance is the one that York will push for because he'll make him much more money. To me, it's the front office and all the scouts vs. Big Shanny and son.
ReplyDeleteYep seems logical,if KS pushes for Jones than he doesn't have a clue, than we will lose a lot more against the Chiefs
DeleteRaz,
DeleteI don’t see the Jets making any push for Jones, but Fields is the QB that I see as a probability.
There are still many football analysts that view Justin Fields as the second best QB in the draft and the Jets FO may feel that he’s the safest pick at #2.
You’ve called it a pipe dream on my end, but the level of competition and great performance by Fields cannot be argued or dismissed.
Fields presents a greater foundation than Wilson which is something that may be attractive to the Jets.
Btw, nice piece, Mood.
DeleteThanks, AES.
DeleteI'd like to think that all this news of division, conflict, etc, is smoke. Jed, Kyle, John and Paraag get drunk together and come up with ways to troll the media and fans...
There is a tremendous amount of BS coming out of all the camps. Nothing is being said and yet at the same time everything is being said. Now I still stand behind the school of thought that this was a bad trade to begin with. Is the damage already happening? division in the hierarchy? division in the clubhouse? division amongst the fans?
ReplyDeleteI wasn't in favor of the trade up either undercenter but it's done and while I have guys I like it really doesn't matter because I haven't done an ounce of the work the team has to make this decision. All we can do is hope the guy they pick turns out to be the franchise guy they are hoping for.
DeleteUC,
DeleteIt’s nothing that a 10-12 win season and a run at the playoffs can’t cure.
For me to feel ok with everything that has happened in the last month in 49ers nation will only be satisfied with a playoff run.
This team is built to win now. Especially, if we get our key players back.
I even believe that a healthy Garoppolo can get us into the post season with everyone healthy surrounding him.
Now, If Jones is the guy it will be because Shanahan did an exhaustive study on him and is convinced that Jones is the player he feels will eventually meets the 49ers goal.
And I’m sure that the same due diligence went into Fields and Lance.
That’s why I’m happy with whoever the QB pick is come Thursday evening.
AES - rest assured I will be fine with any selection the Niners make. To fairly critique the trade its going to take a few years so its a we shall see, we shall see.
DeleteUC,
DeleteExactly!
Thanks Mood, nice piece.
ReplyDeleteI'll be honest, I am tapping out after this. I'm done trying to figure this thing out because if I'm being honest, this entire process, ever since the ShanaLynch made the bold move and sold the farm in order to move into position to draft their guy, has been puzzling at best.
And now I am seeing more disturbing reports about a potential difference of opinion (or a potential split, if you will, between Kyle, and his personnel department) at the 23rd hour, which I find extremely disheartening.
I woke up this morning and realized that all of the initial excitement I had experienced after the news of the big trade broke, has completely vanished. I am just over it at this point. I bleed scarlet and gold, but I'm done holding my breath at this point.
I do want to remind everyone that Kyle loved CJ Beathard for a lot of the same reasons he likes Mac Jones. Kyle loved CJ Beathard so much that he took him in the 3rd round, way higher than he was projected to be drafted. We all saw how that played out.
Kyle liked Nick Mullens for a lot of the same reasons he likes Mac Jones. Despite his obvious shortcomings, he liked the undrafted Mullens well enough to keep him as his #2 QB for 4 straight seasons, and we all saw how that played out.
Kyle chose Brian Hoyer to lead his team during his first season as an NFL Head Coach. He chose Brian Hoyer despite his obvious shortcomings, and we all saw how that played out.
It's been widely known that Kyle has been pursuing Kirk Cousins (Cousins has a career .500 record and is perhaps the most overpaid QB in the entire NFL) ever since he took the job as the Niners HC. Apparently, he likes Kirk for a lot of the same reasons he likes Mac Jones.
Kyle has a QB friendly system. Late last year, after Steve was afforded an opportunity to go over Kyle's game plan for the Niners @ Rams, at the end of November 2020. Steve went over the first 25-30 plays with Kyle, and Steve was blown away with what he called the "simplicity" of the reads. It's a fairly complex offense with extremely simple reads. Steve described the reads as "1-2,1-2,1-2", but what really blew him away was the way in which Kyle had answers to the blitz built into each and every play. He said that it's the combination of simplicity of the reads, as well as how well the blitz is accounted for, that convinced him of the genius of Kyle's system.
Which brings me back to the QB's.
If the reads are as QB friendly as Steve Young and others have suggested they are, and Kyle has stated that his opinion has changed in terms of evaluating QB's (Kyle himself said he believes the best QB's are the ones who can win from the pocket and also with their legs when necessary) why would Kyle be settling for yet another QB with average physical talent, when the entire league is moving in the opposite direction!
I just don't get it, and a lot of other people are starting to wonder the same thing I'm wondering.
Justin Fields and Trey Lance are the ONLY logical choice for the Niners at #3. That's a FACT!
Thanks, 49Reasons.
DeleteI find it astonishing that Kyle would think that the Mac Jones is the dream QB. As Tanier wrote, Mac's ceiling is the arithmetic mean of Cousins and Ryan.
KS needs to know if he is so innovative thatn the league gets more and more athletic every year.
ReplyDeleteOr is he that dunb that he dont see we always have problems with the Hobbit,Mahomes.and Josh Allen.
Pinpoint Accuracy of Jones dont know not every nfl team had a o-line like Bama.
And i still say he didn't start as soon as the other qb's mentioned this means something those days.
Smells like a huge smokescreen lol:
ReplyDeletehttps://predominantlyorange.com/2021/04/26/denver-broncos-rumors-mac-jones/
Just caught the presser. Shanny thinks he's the smartest guy in the organization, and doesn't seem too worried if he gets the pick wrong. Doesn't sound like Jimmy is going anywhere. Grant Cohn, "Will you pick up McGlinchey's option? Lynch, Yes. I would not have wasted it on that dumb question. My question, "John, you asked that the faithful "trust" you and Kyle to make the right decision, but you made the wrong decisions on, Mahomes and Watson. Why should they trust you now?"
ReplyDeleteI'm sick to my stomach with the way this entire process has played out, and I found today's presser to be embarrassing.
DeleteI can't even wear my Niners gear out and about right now, because I am so embarrassed about this.
Kyle Shanahan should not be making this decision. His track record in select QB's is horrific, and 3 of his 4 seasons as a HC have been ruined because of it.
I'll say it again. Kyle Shanahan is a brilliant Offensive Coordinator, and he's a very good motivator of men. But when it comes to evaluating the QB position, he sucks, and that's not hyperbole. I don't know if it's his emotions that cloud his judgement, or if its his ego, or if it truly is arrogance. But the way this entire thing has played out, knowing the way most of the rest of the NFL feels about these prospects, I am leaning towards the A word. And that's a total bummer!
49Reasons,
ReplyDeleteI happen to agree with your take. I also see it as a huge reach given all the 49ers gave up if Jones is their target.
Yet, I can’t dismiss the fact that if Jones is the pick, his ceiling could rise incrementally under Shanahan.
I believe that any of the top 3 potential QBs (Lance, Jones and Fields) could flourish under Shanahan.
Looking back at Shanahan’ and Lynch’ first year, their first mistake was missing on Mahomes. But, coming off of a previous season of butt-ugly football, the 49ers needed so much more than a QB.
It’s a small miracle that the team made it to the Super Bowl in three years following that dumpster fire.
I may not get the guy that I want on Thursday, but I will trust the decision that Lynch and Shanahan make. I believe that they’ve done enough in 4 years (save last year due to injuries) to earn my respect.
I totally agree AES, I think whoever ends up playing under Kyle has the best shot at success, I just feel like those chances go down with Jones, compared to other options.
DeleteIn fact, I easily prefer a healthy Jimmy G. over Mac Jones.
DeleteNice debut article Mood! The first of many, I hope.
ReplyDeleteI disagree a bit regarding who they are debating between. I think the media has it right, and its between Lance and Jones. And that Jones was the one they had as their guy when they made the move, with Lance the one they are now debating internally about. I still think Lance wins that debate, but it will be Kyle that needs to be convinced.
Now obviously I could be wrong, but I have found it hard to believe that Fields was ever in strong contention. As I have said previously, I get RGIII vibes when watching him. Very similar prospects on the field in college. And I struggle to think Shanahan would want to draft a guy that brings RGIII vibes. But that's just part of it. Of the three contenders, Fields is the one that least demonstrated working within a timing, rhythm based offense, and throwing with anticipation. Not his fault, the OSU offense dictated that to a large degree, but I think Shanahan holds that ability in high regard and will want to know whoever he drafts is adept at it.
Thanks, Scooter. I will try to write an occasional piece. You folks do a tremendous job with those regular columns which is hard work.
DeleteYeah, I am not claiming any deep insight. Quite possible that Kyle will pick Jones. It would be a surprising decision to me, but apparently not to Mike Tanier, who writes:
"Kyle Shanahan has the chance to do something unique with this pick. He could select Trey Lance or Justin Fields and groom them while Jimmy Garoppolo soaks up early-season starts. Shanahan could then unleash Lance or Fields in what we are required by internet law to call “his extremely QB-friendly scheme” and confirm he is a bona fide offensive genius once and for all.
Alas, the 49ers appear bent on drafting Mac Jones, who is far less talented than Lance or Fields but more “NFL ready,” which is code for “pocket passer propped up by a great program,” — which is often code for “tall white guy.” It’s almost certainly the wrong, but safe, move that Shanahan will make quasi-work by turning Jones into the arithmetic average of Kirk Cousins and Matt Ryan."
I kind of felt bad for John Lynch at the presser. When he talked about deferring this decision to Kyle, you could see John turning red. Not a good look.
ReplyDeleteAnd, as fans, what do we make of all of Kyle's recent talk about physically gifted quarterbacks?
DeleteIs Kyle so arrogant to believe that fans will just get on board with whoever he picks, despite the things he's been telling us?
Or was Kyle just selling us fans a bunch BS in the first place?
Because he can't have it both ways. He's had 1 winning season out of his 4 as a HC. Right? And besides injuries, the biggest issue has been with the QB position. Kyle hasn't been able to identify a QB who can win, at all, other than the oft-injured Jimmy G. who absolutely fell into Kyle's lap!
If he takes Jones, it's time for fans to call him out on all of his BS! My gosh! "Hopefully we make the right decision" ... really Kyle?
I wholeheartedly agree with Jose Luis Sanchez over at Sports Illustrated, when he says that "Drafting Mac Jones Would Jeopardize Kyle's Career!"
If Fields or Lance end up as better QB's than Jones, and one of those 2 guys probably will, IMO, that's it. Unless Kyle wins a Super Bowl with Mac, it's lights out as far as I am concerned.
BTW, did you guys catch Trey Lance on the cover of Sports Illustrated?
I am just soooooo angry with ShanaLynch right now. I really need to get offline and cool my jets.
If whoever they take at #3 plays poorly then Shanahan and Lynch's job will be on the line. It just so happens that 49ers fans believe that Mac Jones is the one that will fail, while Lance/ Fields will be incredible.
Delete49reasons,
DeleteCalm the F... down. You don't have a clue who the best QB will be out of this group and neither does anyone else. Twitter is a cesspool of bad opinions and worse ideas. It exists for people to say anything without any consequences because it will be forgotten as quickly as it was said.
If Jones is the pick, and I think he will be based on what I heard today from ShanaLynch, it will be because they have explored every angle and have come to the conclusion that he is the guy they will have the most success with. They may wind up being wrong, but they could also be right. At least wait until we see it play out before you throw your hands up and declare the end to your Niner fandom.
Ding ding ding! Right on, cubus.
DeleteIt is difficult to overstate how nonsensical it would be to trade multiple first-round picks, with Jimmy Garoppolo still under contract, to draft Mac Jones.
DeleteEven if you think he’s a football genius—as some evidently do—the whole point of the Shanahan offense is that it can synthesize an effective passing game without an elite processor at the helm (see: Garoppolo, Jimmy). While improved decision-making and risk management would help the Niners offense (the Mac Jones route), improved arm talent and playmaking are far more desperately needed.
-Solak
Seconds after Shanny selects Jones, the fuse on the arrogance bomb will be lit. The only question will be, how long before it blows up?
ReplyDeleteWell, as you know, I for one will have no problem with the pick if it is Jones.
DeleteWhat I wonder is what Jones would need to do to win over the 49ers fans. Because that's the crazy thing about all this - the majority of fans will be so angered by the pick that I get the feeling that the initial belief will be anything less than Pro Bowl as a rookie will be acceptable, and 2-3 Super Bowls by the time he gets his second contract. Maybe exaggerating, but basically the majority of fans will have completely unreasonable "expectations" of what success must look like to justify the pick.
And then, of course, if he starts playing well and the team starts winning (as I fully expect they will), fans will slowly start to cool their jets as they always do. And no doubt there would be a lot of people that forget just how unreasonable they were throughout the whole process.
The funny thing is, I suspect that for a while that even if Jones is playing well and Fields/ Lance aren't, there would be a lot of fans still upset with the pick. That is how ridiculous this whole thing has gotten. And for some it isn't even about the team playing well anymore, it is about being right. And I don't mean on here - on 49ers Twitter. There are some prominent 49ers podcasters and bloggers on Twitter that seem to care a lot more about being right about Fields and Jones than anything else, and a lot of their followers are the same.
Scooter, I don't know about you but I've seen every one of Shanny's presser's and I've never seen him so defensive. Even after losses. The guy was asked about Jimmy being on the roster and all he had to say was that I expect him to compete with the other quarterbacks in training camp. Instead he equates it to whether or not he knows if Jimmy will even be alive! Wtf? I hate to overreact but man, after John said he will defer to Shanny on the choice? He just admitted he's a gm in name only. Big Shanny was a poor qb evaluator and his son has already cost us Mahomes and Watson. Why in the hell would anyone defer when you have multiple minds pointing in another direction? For mine, this presser had disaster written all over it.
DeleteI wholeheartedly agree, Razor. We've officially entered the twilight zone.
DeleteI am not worried about the fan base eventually buying in on Mac Jones. They will eventually come around if he's winning. The issue I see is short term. There will be so much added pressure all the way around, if they take Jones. And a lot of that pressure will unfortunately be on Mac Jones himself, which is not a great position for a young QB to be put into, right?
This whole thing seems like the Titanic headed straight for an iceberg. We can all see the iceberg on the horizon, the only question is ... is there enough time to steer the ship clear before they hit it!
I, for one, am starting to think ShanaLynch are inevitably headed for the seabed.
Hmmm, yeah, I didn't see the presser so can't comment on that. But honestly, from what I have seen written about it... yes it sounds like they were defensive, but also sounds like the questions they were asked were geared towards getting defensive answers.
DeleteFor mine, from what I have read about it, sounds to me like Shanahan was basically telling people that he doesn't care what others think, nor should he, and that he thinks fans who have watched Youtube and read a few articles maybe don't know as much as the team does, so maybe they should have a little more faith (crazy idea, but one I tend to agree with).
You know what this feels like to me. This feels like Kyle is taking the guy who's most ready to start tomorrow. The guy who probably needs the least amount of developing in order to start right away. Seems as if Jimmy G. is definitely in Kyle's infamous doghouse, and Kyle can't wait to send him packing. I could be wrong, but I very much doubt Jimmy will be on the roster come training camp.
DeleteAnd for me, that's a mistake. That's Kyle taking his personal grudges out, not caring how it affects the team. They have a golden opportunity to develop a young QB, while remaining a contender. That's a rare opportunity!
Why do I say this? Because anyone in the right mind has to believe that, given a little bit of development, either Fields or Lance (probably both) will end up with the higher ceiling. I get that some people think Mac Jones might end up working great under Kyle Shanahan, I get that, but think about how much the 49ers gave up in order to get this pick. We know from the words that have come out of Kyle's own mouth, that Mac Jones isn't the ideal QB, in terms of skill set.
Kyle told us just a few months ago that HIS ideal QB was a QB who could do both at a high level, No matter how much some may like him, that's NOT Mac Jones.
So now, if it's Jones, we can no longer trust what Kyle is telling us because we know what he's really looking for in a QB, because he told us, and Mac Jones ain't that! That's a fact!
I must be out of my mind then :-)
DeleteNothing that was said today should come as a surprise to anyone. We already knew that Shanahan had final say on personnel so obviously he has final say on the pick. That doesn't mean he is ignoring everyone else in the room. As Lynch said each guy was given the edict to provide an argument for why they would choose somebody and then it's up to him and Kyle to weigh everything and make a decision. You can criticize them for missing out on Mahomes and Watson but they had a plan to sign Cousins so taking a QB in round one was not a consideration. That plan fell through when they traded for JG and it worked out well with the exception of the injuries. You live and you learn. Now they have made the decision to take one of these QB's and have put more time into researching it than the pretentious experts on Twitter have combined. You don't have to like the choice but at least respect the fact that the people making the decision have a lot more information to make it with than any of us do.
DeleteExactly, Notanexpert.
DeleteAs Michael Silver said in his interview with Matt Maiocco, there are a lot of people that need a root canal (fans) that think they know better than the dentist (Shanahan), because they Googled it.
Yep it's the age of everyone knowing everything about everything without really knowing anything. The level of animosity being created right now is truly incredible.
DeleteThey've already mucked it up the last time they were up here. What gives you guys hope they know what they're doing now?
DeleteWhat gives me hope is that after mucking it up last time they were in the Super Bowl two years later.
DeleteThey have shown that all they need to do is find a QB as good as JG, and they can get to a SB. I like JG, but he is just a decent starting QB. So even if whoever they take is just a decent starting QB, they stand a good chance of being a very good team, barring injuries. And I believe that whoever they take has a pretty good chance of being better than that.
Whoever they take will also be a lot cheaper than JG, so they can spend their money on other positions to keep the team strong around the QB.
Scooter, I don't ever just want to get to a Super Bowl again if we're not going to win.
DeleteMaybe I am in the minority, but I'd rather get to a Super Bowl and lose than not get there at all.
DeleteBut then, I also don't get too emotionally involved in the 49ers. Watching sport is a fun passtime for me.
Maybe a better way of putting it is, the most fun seasons for me over the past decade were the three years under Jim Harbaugh that the team made the playoffs, and the 2019 season. And the most fun of those seasons imo were 2019, then 2012.
DeleteIt would have been even more fun if they had won one or both of those years, but I can say the same for any season.
Now if the 49ers don't win a Super Bowl with the QB they are about to draft that will suck, but so long as they are generally good, making the playoffs most years, etc, they'll be fun to watch.
Scooter, sorry about that.
DeleteIf you are saying that you personally think Mac Jones has a higher ceiling than both Fields, and Lance, I take back what I said about anyone in their right mind.
I have no idea what you are seeing that most others aren't, but I do respect your opinion.
That doesn't change the fact that, if the Niners spent 3 firsts and a 3rd to take Jones, that the Niners are spending a fortune on a QB who doesn't even fit Kyle Shanahan's ideal mold, because he told us a few months ago what kind of QB is the ideal QB 2021. He also told us his entire process of evaluating QB's has changed because of Mahomes, Allen, etc, and we know for a fact that Mac Jones fits the old mold, whether he has a chance to be really good or not.
That's all I am saying.
Also, I am told that most NFL teams don't even have a first round grade on Jones, and I trust my sources.
Lastly, I still think Justin Fields is the obvious pick! And I am holding out hope that I am right!
No, I am saying I don't believe with a little development Lance and Fields *will* have a higher ceiling. They may. They may not. I think I was pretty clear discussing this previously that I strongly disagree with the idea that all QBs are created equal with regards to the less tangible traits of pocket passing skills, and it isn't a case you can just coach them up. And whichever guy ends up the best pocket passer is the one that will have the best career, health permitting.
DeleteScooter, here's the thing.
ReplyDeleteKyle told us what his ideal QB looked like a few months ago. Remember that?
So my question to you, Scooter, is:
Was he lying then, or lying now, if he selects the next Kirk Cousins (or some believe the next Andy Dalton).
He was never lying. As I have said previously, a lot of people (imo) have misinterpreted what Shanahan has said over the past few months regarding his ideal QB. He has actually been very consistent in stating how much he values pocket passing above all else. And yeah, if the best pocket passer also happens to be a great athlete, even better.
DeleteA lot of people have taken his comments to mean he has really lifted the importance he places on elite athletic traits. I don't agree. He's always valued athleticism, but athleticism within the pocket. The ability to move quickly and efficiently in the pocket to buy time and stay in rhythm of the play. And as I said above, if that athleticism lends itself to being a dynamic runner as well, great.
So for mine it has always come down to which QBs in this draft provide the best pocket passing traits. And with that in mind I have always felt Lance and Jones were the two guys that stood out. But Lance is a lot more raw in this regard - he still needs to work on marrying his feet to his eyes. Thus why I have always thought Jones was a very good chance of being Shanahan's pick.
Now of course it still could be Fields. We don't know anything for sure. But all signs are pointing towards Lance or Jones, and I for one am not at all surprised.
And it is also worth noting that John Middlekauff earlier today said he has heard from a source that it is in fact Justin Fields, and that there is no way it is Mac Jones.
DeleteSo what does it all mean? Absolutely nothing. We still have no idea who the pick will be. But what I do know is that (a) Shanahan values pocket passing skills above all else (as he should) and (b) whoever they pick they are picking because they genuinely believe that person is the QB that gives them the best chance to win. And it will have been made after very careful deliberation over the past month.
Was Kyle lying a few months ago, or is he lying now?
ReplyDeleteI think we can all agree that .... if Mac Jones ends up looking like a scrub compared to Lance or Fields (or really even Lawrence and Wilson, right, same draft) this will go down as the biggest draft mistake ever.
ReplyDeleteWhen they make the training video for how not to run an NFL franchise, it will be -
A) don't trade away a bunch first round picks in order to move up in the draft, if you don't know who you are drafting ahead of time
B) Don't tell the fan base one thing, and then turn around and do the opposite, with the biggest draft pick in team history, and then get defensive when people start asking questions
A)They did know who they were moving up for as Shanahan said quite clearly today. They just allowed themselves the freedom to look at each one of them and keep an open mind while continuing to research and gather information.
DeleteB)They didn't say one thing and do the opposite. Shanahan's history shows the exact type of QB he likes and he said nothing to make anyone believe he had completely changed his view on that. His system is totally reliant on the QB knowing where to go with the football and getting it there accurately based on what he is presented with from the defense. Kyle likes a big arm and athleticism but he loves a QB who can read a defense and deliver the ball on time. For all the crap Garoppolo has taken since he got injured again last year, he is the type of QB Shanahan likes because he works within the offense and doesn't bail on the pocket at the first sign of trouble. That is what he wants from the QB he takes on Thursday. If the pocket collapses and you have to stay alive to make a play or run for a first down fine, but that is the least important element to achieving success in his system. He wants a QB who understands the game on his level, who will stand in there to get the ball to the playmakers and ultimately win games. He got that from Matt Shaub, Matt Ryan, and Garoppolo when healthy. He's gone to SB's with two of those guys so I would urge you to curb your anger and give the benefit of the doubt to the guy who designed the system and knows more than anybody the kind of QB he needs to run it properly.
I am sorry guys, I am literally seeing red right now.
ReplyDeleteI need to step away, or else this pick is going to be the death of me!
Enjoyed reading your article, Mood.
ReplyDeleteThanks, Cubus.
DeleteIf Shanny chooses McRib over Fields or Lance, I think I will have to take a week off on a solo backpacking trip to re-calibrate my understanding of the evolution of Shanny's offensive philosophy :(
Ha! Maybe I am off the mark, but I don't think there is any significant changes in Shanahan's offensive philosophy no matter which QB they take.
DeleteMood, thanks for your debut article. It's quite good.
ReplyDeleteI think lost in the last few days was the revelation that Fields has epilepsy. At least I haven't seen it mentioned here. If I'm wrong, my apologies.
Normally, one would expect that to change a player's draft status.
So unless Wilson falls to us, I do think it's down to Lance and Jones, and if they had preferred Fields, I can see this leading to their pivoting and taking Pitts, perhaps after a trade-down with Atlanta.
DeleteThanks, George.
DeleteCould this all be a giant cloud of smoke from 4949 Centennial and they could choose Fields at the end?
I really think it can't be ruled out Mood. The 49ers are doing a great job keeping everyone guessing!
DeleteShanny and Lynch have played their hand marvelously. That's the way it should be played, keep your hand vested to yourself and plant a few seeds and watch it grow. The entire football league is waiting for Shanny and Lynch to make their pick. Well done Shanny and Lynch well done.
ReplyDeleteAgreed UC. I'm loving the way they are playing it. Aggressive, but managing to keep everyone guessing.
DeleteDoes Kyle Shanahan’s job security hinge on the 49ers’ pick at No. 3 being a success?
ReplyDelete(2:40 PM ET) I first broke the news that it’s looking like Mac Jones or Trey Lance at No. 3 to the 49ers. A postscript to that story — during conversations with people through Saturday, I pointed out both quarterbacks are a risk that early in the draft. I followed up with the question: “If they take either Jones or Lance at No. 3 and they bust, does Shanahan lose his job?” The reaction from just about all was a resounding, “No! Shanahan is a lifer in San Francisco.”
And while I don’t believe people think Shanahan will be with San Francisco for life, the point was he has plenty of job security regardless of whichever quarterback he selects at No. 3 succeeds or fails.
HC of a football team is on of the most arrogant positions in professional sports.
ReplyDeleteEspecially with this franchise.
If we take Mac Jones we still make the same average decisions.
Its about winning SB's not playing in the SB,my standard is to win and be the franchise with the most wins./
Look to Alex Smith yes he won in college and yes he was accurate in college is this what some of you want? Instead of a QB who leads a team with making money throws when a SB is on the line, or throws off platform and outside with his athletic instincts to haul the SB in.
Bill Walsh this was a legend in choosing a QB and being innovative.
And see how Andy Reid has seen the light.
Well, I am pretty sure the 49ers plan is to get "one of those five or so guys" that Shanahan keeps mentioning. It just seems Shanahan may have a different view to the majority of fans as to who that is.
DeleteI see lots of people claiming it would be the ultimate arrogant decision by Shanahan to take Jones. Maybe so. He certainly doesn't seem to lack for ego.
But I would suggest the even greater arrogance would be for fans to so firmly believe they know better.
This is what you get in Trey Lance and he is the one who will dictaten defenses in the NFL not Mac Jones:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.si.com/nfl/2021/04/26/trey-lance-on-his-unique-path-to-nfl-draft-daily-cover
Mood, it totally could be Fields. Donte Whitner recommended they trade up for him in late December.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/49ers/49ers-should-trade-2021-nfl-draft-justin-fields-donte-whitner-says
George i would not give up the franchise also for Fields cuz of the seizure risk.
ReplyDeleteFor me its either Wilson (if the Jets pass) or Lance