Tuesday, March 2, 2021

The LT Conundrum

By Scooter_McG

The 49ers have some glaring needs to address this offseason, including offensive line, the secondary, edge rusher and backup QB. Today I will focus on what is possibly the biggest of those needs - the LT position - as how they address the LT situation will have a significant ripple effect on the rest of the 49ers offseason plans.

Last year Joe Staley's retirement could have caused a disaster, but the team was lucky to be able to trade for a high quality replacement in Trent Williams for what was a relatively paltry trade package for a player of his ability. However, the down side of that trade is that Williams was only under contract for one season, and now he will be entering FA with no option to tag him as the 49ers added a no tag clause to his contract as a sign of good faith. Williams has been honest about his desire to test his value in FA.

As a result, the 49ers once more find themselves with a potentially significant hole at one of the premier positions in football, and a position that Shanahan has historically prioritised wherever he has been. So the quesiton is, what should the 49ers do to address the position?

One obvious solution would be to re-sign Williams. However, LT's of his quality can easily attract north of $20M per season, which may be too much for the 49ers to afford given the COVID impacted salary cap and number of positions the 49ers need to add quality starters and role players this offseason. Not to mention that Williams will be 33 this year and has a history of health issues. While they could likely structure it to minimise the cost in 2021, if it becomes a bidding war for his services the 49ers may well be better off letting him walk. 

There will be other starting calibre options available in FA that can be had far cheaper, but the market is currently looking pretty thin (which may change if some players get released) and none of the options bring the same level of elite play of Williams. Villanueva has been mentioned by many as an option, and is likely the next best available LT in FA. However, he too is 33 and PFF predicts his salary may be as high as $15M per year. Further, while he offers plus pass protection skills his run blocking has historically only been average which wouldn't seem to fit what Shanahan looks for. 

Another option may be Taylor Moton who is both younger and a better run blocker, but has been a RT in the NFL so far. PFF predicts he may command around $16.5M a year, and with RTs now regularly facing pass rushers of equal calibre as LTs Moton may provide a preferable option to Villanueva. However, both players will still command high value contracts that would eat a sizeable chunk of the 49ers relatively limited available cap space. 

Other FA options available that will likely be cheaper but can still provide starting calibre OT play (when healthy) include Russell Okung, Kelvin Beachum and Daryl Williams. Signing one of these guys may be a shrewd move for a team looking to fill the position through the draft but wanting a proven starting calibre guy as insurance or as a bridge. After that, you are getting into guys that are well past their use by date, or just have never been that good.  

The draft, on the other hand, is widely considered to offer considerable quality and depth at the OT position (and OL in general). Penei Sewell is believed to be the jewel in the crown of this class, receiving many comparisons to HOF LTs of the past. The chances of the 49ers having a shot at him are next to zero. But after that there are still a good number of quality prospects that could be had day 1 or 2, including Rashawn Slater, Christian Darrisaw, Alijah Vera-Tucker, Jalen Mayfield, Sam Cosmi, Alex Leatherwood, Liam Eichenberg, Teven Jenkins, James Hudson, Walker Little, Dillon Radunz and Trey Smith.

In my opinion, if the 49ers are unable to re-sign Williams to a reasonably team friendly deal they should look to add a guy like Beachum in FA for insurance/ as a bridge and then draft an OT in either round 1 or 2 with the hope and expectation they could step in provide quality OT play early in their careers. What say you?

42 comments:

  1. Watt a burger makes it imperative that they resign Williams. Even if they do upgrade his backup, Jimmy is too fragile to shop at dollar general for your LT. Not signing Williams really isn't a viable option. Good write up, Scooter.

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    1. I disagree re Watt. His signing changes nothing. First, he won't be going against the LT much anyway, but tbh while a great player, he isn't what he used to be.

      More importantly the 49ers can't let what other teams do dictate their plans or make them panic and commit too much cap to one player.

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    2. You and I both know, Williams' agent isn't going to see it your way when it comes time to sit down and negotiate.😎

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    3. Scooter,
      I agree in part that what other teams do should not dictate what the 49ers do. But then I think back to when the 49ers signed Dion Sanders to counter the Cowboys speedy receivers who were beating us in the post season. I clearly believe that the Sanders chess move won us a Superbowl.

      Keeping Williams is justified by one huge reason: He's our best OL player. With McGlinchey (our best OL going into 2020) having an average year and the underachieving play of the OL as a whole, it only makes re-signing TW more imperative.

      With the current cap shortcomings it may now come down to who is more important to the offense - Williams or Garoppolo?

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    4. It really comes down to whether they can replace Williams adequately or not. Lots of good OTs in the draft this year... I'd have to imagine the 49ers could find a guy they really like. And the money they could save could really help rebuild that defense, plus provide a good veteran centre.

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    5. Scooter,
      Doubt it happens, but I wouldn't be upset if the team goes after two top OL players with their first two picks.
      A repeat of the "Bam" Davis, Mike Iupati first two draft picks could patch up the OL in a hurry.

      *Like your avatar. I'm still working on getting one myself.

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    6. Signing, Williams wouldn't preclude them from drafting a player like, Slater who could slide out to RT from RG if, The Glinch isn't in their future cap plans.

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    7. AES, I'd be on board with taking two OL early in the draft. Or one early and one in the mid rounds. Making the OL a strength will only help the team.

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    8. Really good thought provoking piece Scooter McG. I think it became a foregone conclusion for awhile that the 49ers would do whatever it took to sign Williams but that may not be the case. I could see them letting him walk and using the money to fortify some other areas while also taking one of the OT's in round one or two if the money isn't to their liking. As you mentioned this is a good class of OT's so drafting one and bringing in a vet Center/LT at a cheaper cost to Williams might be the way to go.

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    9. Thanks Notanexpert. The more I think about it the more I think using their salary cap space on other areas of need makes sense, rather than putting a large chunk of it into Williams.

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    10. I have to be honest, I don't think Watt makes any difference in regards to Williams. Chandler Jones, is the guy they will be considering when thinking about the LT spot.
      As to what to do, I don't think I could pay Williams 22Million on average, so paying Moton or Okung and saving 5-7 Million sounds reasonable to me. If you are able to get Alijah Vera-Tucker or Jenkens at the top of 2nd then I think you have made some real headway in improving the line as a whole. If they can add someone like Meyers in 3rd or 4th. Then you are looking at a very strong Unit across the board.

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    11. Scooter / Razor
      Look for the colts to offer TW $23 Mil P/Y to sign and
      may offer more in a bidding war.

      Delete
  2. Off topic, but I'm starting to think more and more that, since the priority seems to be on backup QB, Alex Smith might be a good choice. Obviously not a long-term option, but should come at a reasonable price, compared to Bridgewater. Further, he should be an upgrade over Dalton. Of course, there is the potential injury concern. But I suspect that Alex has a heightened awareness to protect himself, even if that means not trying to salvage a play but live to fight another day. Alex is a smart, high-character guy who won't mind sharing what he has learned with other guys in the QB room.

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    1. Alex Smith has proven to be an excellent mentor for a young qb, and it wouldn't shock me to see him become a qb coach once the sun sets on his playing career.

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    2. Alex Smith is an extraordinary person and highly intelligent.
      If he sets his sights on something I'm convinced that he will achieve it.
      If AS decided to remain in the NFL as a coach, I believe that a head coach position would be in his future.

      But one thing that I'd be fearful of would be seeing Alex on the field injured again - especially as a 49er.

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    3. Smith would be a great backup but I don't know if he's ready to accept that yet. Sounds like he wants to start if he can find a place to give him the chance.

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    4. I want nothing to do with Smith at this point.
      He is no longer mobile nor can he step into his throws and as a result even his check downs are getting intercepted now (he threw more ints than td's). I admire him greatly as a Man but I don't trust him to play, so even as a backup... so I only see him as a mentor/tutor and that is what I pay coaches for.

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  3. There is no doubt that the OL has some serious issues. If the Niners do not sign Williams would that mean, Jus, Hyder, K Williams, Verrett would be signed? The complexities of the reduce cap is going to raise interesting issues.

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    1. Lots of moving parts, Under. Squeaky too. Gonna need some 3 in 1 oil.

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    2. Yeah, I will be getting to other positions in other entries, but my thoughts are that if they don't sign Williams they would use that money elsewhere.

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    3. They could do a lot with the savings for sure. It's going to be interesting to see what the market is for Verrett and Kwaun especially. It would be great to have them back but how much do you offer and what term with both being injury risks?

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    4. I expect Saleh to take whomever he can from the 49ers defense.

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  4. Scooter, thanks again for a well-written and well thought-out article. I should also give a proper thanks to Razor and Mid for theirs. You guys make my day better than it would be without you.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You're welcome, George. Too many passionate faithful to just let them become voiceless. Thanks to your, encouragement and leadership, they now have a place to continue their conversations with fans they have built a relationship with over the years. Cheers!

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    2. My pleasure George, glad you are enjoying our articles!

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    3. George,
      I wholeheartedly agree.
      This site has provided a sense of fresh air.
      Keep up the good work guys.

      Delete
  5. Regarding your conclusion, Scooter, which I think is irrefutable, what's your take on what Williams will do? And I open this up to everyone. He'll likely need to forego several million to sign a cap-friendly deal with us. Is he man enough to do it? Some here might counter and say he has the right to the extra millions, which he certainly does. But life's not all about money, especially for a man already a multi-millionaire.

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    1. I believe Williams will follow the money. He may take a small discount to be somewhere he knows the coaching staff really want him and he has a chance to win, but I think he sees this as his last chance to really cash in. If it becomes a bidding war I think the 49ers will let him walk.

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  6. If the 9ers have to draft a LOT I believe they can trade back to around #20 and land a solid OT like C. Darrisaw. They could pick up an extra 2 or a 3rd and 4th. I'm going to go out on a limd and predict that McGlinchey will return to his 2019 level next year. I believe he was a middle of the road talent and we got to the SB with him.

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    1. Be the first time they ever traded down more than a spot.

      The Glinch just has to refine his pass pro technique and consistency at RG.

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    2. OC, there are so many good OTs in this draft (based on what experts believe) that they could definitely go that route.

      But I think razor makes a good point - it would go completely against their draft history to make a big trade back. In four years they have shown they prefer to take the higher end talent available when given the opportunity in the first over moving back a ways to accumulate picks.

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    3. They have definitely shown a preference for not moving down too much in the first round and looking for Linemen first. The only time they strayed from that was when they had two first round picks so I'd say expect an OL/DL with the first pick unless a player like Pitts somehow slides through in which case it will give them something to think about.

      As far as a trade down goes they have 10 picks so I'm not sure there is a lot of motivation to do that. I'd like to see them do it but it's probably not likely.

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  7. If they know they are going to choose an OT in the first round and they believe that they can get a day one starter at #20 or so, it is time to change their draft philosophy and trade back.

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    Replies
    1. If they believe they can get a guy that is a perfect fit for their system and future top tier player at 12 and aren't sure they will have the same option at 20, I think they'll make the pick rather than risk it even if they believe there are other guys that could be good too. No matter the position.

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    2. They've already shown they're not overly concerned where they get their guy as long as they get him.

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  8. Hey guys, some draft sites have Quinn Meinerz settling in as a 2nd day pick.
    Do believe that QM did enough in the college post season practices to warrant a 3rd rd pick by the 49ers?
    How do you guys feel about Meinerz?

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    Replies
    1. I like him but don't feel like he's a schematic fit.

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  9. I would take Meinerz as a project to convert into a Center, but not as a 3rd rd pick. My hope is that Quinn could drop to rd 5.

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    1. Meinerz likely made himself some money at the Senior Bowl. But tbh, outside of that I don't know too much about him.

      I quite like the look of Morrissey from Pitt as a day 3 pick.

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    2. Scooter,
      I know that Meinerz played in a lower conference, but he was dominant against his opponents.
      The video of him is impressive and he did turn many heads at the Senior Bowl. But if we could do better in rd 3 I'm down with that.

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  10. Brunskill at LT per Cohn. I can see that happening.

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