By Scooter_McG
When discussing the 49ers main needs this offseason, most people will say some order of OL, edge, DB and QB. However, there is one position that is often overlooked as an offseason priority that I believe the 49ers will spend relatively high resources on, whether it be in FA or the draft. And it may shock some casual fans when it happens.
Despite George Kittle breaking the single season receiving record for a TE in 2018 and being PFFs highest graded player regardless of position in the 2019 season, last offseason the 49ers pushed hard to sign Austin Hooper early in the FA period. It was an unexpected move in the eyes of most fans when news broke the 49ers were one of the main rivals for his signature. Some thought it may have just been due diligence, others a sign that things weren't going well with the Kittle extension which could lead to Kittle being shipped out like Buckner.
But the idea of Kittle leaving never seemed realistic, and when the team kept looking at other TE options (finally settling on Jordan Reed) it became clear that adding a second TE was high on Shanahan's want list in 2020. When Reed was healthy he was used largely as a "move" TE, often lining up as a big slot WR, but he also was able to play in line and be moved around the formation.
And Shanahan's desire for that type of player probably started before 2020. In 2019 they drafted Jalen Hurd in the 3rd round, a highly athletic 6'5", 230lb+ WR/RB that played primarily at slot WR for Baylor. When he was drafted many thought his future may lie as a TE/HB/FB hybrid, and given the type of player Shanahan tried to bring in through Hooper and Reed in 2020, that type of role seems exactly like what they envisioned for Hurd when they drafted him. If he can ever stay healthy they probably still do, but they simply can't rely on Hurd at this point.
The 49ers are already showing their intent this offseason as it has been confirmed the team met virtually with two exciting TE options in this years draft in Brevin Jordan and Tommy Tremble. Both players are "move" TEs that are excellent athletes that aligned in many different positions in college. I'm an unabashed fan of the way Tremble plays - think Delanie Walker - but Jordan may be the bigger prize in Shanahan's eyes with his easy fluidity in space and vice like hands. And importantly, both guys are above average blockers which is essential in Shanahan's offense, in particular Tremble who seems to enjoy nothing more than snatching the souls of defenders.
In FA, a guy like Jonnu Smith may be a surprise target if the 49ers end up with more cap space than originally feared, or on a bit more of a budget someone like Gerald Everett could entice Shanahan.
It may not be a position that grabs the attention of fans like an OT, CB, edge or QB, but don't be surprised when the 49ers grab a TE using premium resources this offseason.
As much as, Grant would have you believe, Dwelley isn't a premium resource. If, Shanny wants to use 13 personnel like he did in Atlanta, (8% of his plays), league average was 2%, to run those TE throwbacks, and open up more big plays downfield off of play action, then I agree he'll likely want to spend a day 2 pick on one. Good topic and well laid out. Thank you, Scooter.
ReplyDeleteThanks razor. I think this is all part of the evolution of his offense to create mismatches. The NFL has increasingly moved towards nickel defense being the primary defense. I think Shanahan wants to take advantage of teams by either making them cover big athletic guys with smaller DBs if they play nickel, or get his athletic TEs and RBs matched up against lesser athletes in standard defenses.
DeleteAnd no, Dwelley is not that guy. A capable enough backup, but nothing more.
Scooter
ReplyDeleteGood insight into how Shanahan wants to run his offense.
My only question (concern), is how he'll allocate his resources. Even with the additional cap space, the 9ers have a lot of FA's they need to resign, how much of the addition cap space it's going to take to resign TW and all of the needs you've pointed out.
NOTE: You left out IOL. I would add a FA Center, like Alex Mack or Corey Linsley.
Thanks GEEP.
DeleteThe limited resources is precisely why it will be a surprise to some. 😉 It all comes down to how Shanahan/Lynch prioritise positions though, and they have shown in the past they don't always match what fans think priorities should be.
Re: IOL, I bundled that in OL. Just like I bundled CB and S into DB.
Geep,
DeleteI believe that part of the reason for Shanahan's wanting a move TE, is that they give the team flexibility. This flexibility not only comes in terms of play calling but in terms of offseason maneuvering. A move TE like Tremble or Brevin could play at either TE or FB, this could be a cheaper alternative to Juice, provide a solid backup to both Juice and and Kittle or allow sf to use some very balanced power formations. The later could be of particular use at the goal line, or in allowing Kittle to get out on 3rd and longs more often.
*Note* In my statement above, In my opinion Juice staying or leaving will be the biggest determining factor in just how interested SF will be in a move TE.
DeleteShoup, imo whether they re-sign Juice or not is independent of their interest in a 2nd TE. I agree that a 2nd TE could help alleviate the loss of Juice, but I think Shanahan wants both.
DeleteHere we slightly differ in our opinion.
DeleteI would not say they don't want a move TE regardless, but I think if Juice moved on it would most certainly push a move TE up the board for SF.
Ah right, yeah, I agree not re-signing Juice could well make a 2nd TE more of a priority. What I meant was that I think they see it as a priority regardless - i.e. I think they will have strong interest in getting one irrespective of what happens with Juice.
DeleteShoup
DeleteTremble and Jordan are two peas in a pod. But IMO Shanahan would draft Miami (Fla.) TE Brevin Jordan
before Notre Dame TE Tommy Tremble, for his YAC ability, Horizontal rout running and can be used as a slot or Z receiver. Mt one concern is his injury history. IMO Tremble is a better inline blocker and Jordan has a smaller catch radius, but either would fit the 9ers
offensive system.
Former NFL Player and host of his own podcast, Ross Tucker, had this to say about Trent Williams (NN article)
ReplyDelete"This is where it gets tough for me. Especially with the cap being down this year. The last I heard from Peter King is $183 million. That just seems like a lot for a tackle. I know that’s the going rate. That’s what Laremy Tunsil got from the Texans because Bill O’Brien doesn’t know what he’s doing. Then David Bahktari was able to beat that.
So I’m guessing...someone...will pay Trent Williams that amount of money. I question whether that someone should be the San Francisco 49ers. I say that for a couple of different reasons. Number one is that they’ve been able to get by without a left tackle like Trent. The offense, with the outside zone stuff, bootlegs, and play-action, it’s not like you’re asking the left tackle to do 40 1-on-1 dropbacks per game.
Also, he had some bad moments last year. He was a big reason why they lost that Eagles game. They made a bunch of plays against Trent Williams last game. I remember a game where they lost in large part because of Trent Williams. Not that I sat here and watched every Trent Williams game. He’s a very good player and I know he’s got good grades from people, but it’s a primetime game and I watched every snap. It’s hard not to get that out of my head.
Part of what you’re paying for with Kyle Shanahan is the ability to be productive without having to pay a left tackle over $20 million a year if that makes sense."
Posey has a rebuttal to a lot of this, but I can't help agreeing with the last sentence. I just can't see paying Williams that much on average.
There's a belief among some that the LT position isn't as valuable as it used to be. Not sure I agree with that, or Mr. Tucker. I think the 49ers would prefer to have, Williams as their LT but I also don't think they'll get into a bidding war. I'm sure they've got a set value they're willing to pay him, and if some team goes above that; they'll move on to plan B.
DeleteCubus, I'm still a little undecided as to what I think the 49ers should do re: Williams. But I do believe the additional cap space that the 49ers are reported to have relative to what was believed previously (now potentially up to $28M when previously it was thought to be only around $13M) puts them in a much better spot to be able to pay Williams while also retaining/ signing a bunch of other guys.
DeleteAs to whether he is worth $20M+ a year, of that I have little doubt it is a yes. Tucker mentions the Eagles game - that was by far his worst game of the year. It was also pretty early in the season, and he was still getting back into the swing of things. Over the second half of the season he was excellent.
Scooter: Posey makes a point of pointing out that Tucker only thoroughly reviewed one game.
DeleteBTW: Good work on the articles.
Thanks cubus.
DeleteTake this FWIW, but Trent liked Sherman's prediction he will stay with the 49ers.
DeleteRashawn Slater Pro Day:
ReplyDelete• HT: 6042
• WT: 304
• Arm: 33”
• 40: 4.88 / 4.94
• 10-yard split: 1.68
• Bench: 33 reps
• 3 Cone: 7.48
With those measurables I think the chatter he isn't suited to play OT will simmer down. 33" arms is on the short side for an OT, but long enough. Height/ weight are fine. His athleticism is elite. And he has the film to back it up.
Actually, 33" arms is definitely on the short side - getting confused with DL where 33" is seen as reasonable. 34" is more the preferred cut off for OTs.
DeleteBut everything else says OT.
I remember getting into an argument with, Grant over how much relevance 1 inch makes in the grand scheme of things. Not much in my humble opinion.
DeleteIf he has the technique it won't matter much. But it may impact on his ability to keep DL off him to some degree.
DeleteI suppose the concern is there are not many successful OTs in the NFL with a similar arm length. But for mine he has the technique and elite athletic traits that it doesn't matter. He's an OT in my book until proven otherwise.
Rashawn Slater confirmed he has talked with the 49ers.
DeleteThat 40 at 300 bills? Wow, just Wow.
ReplyDeleteSame time as Trent Williams' in 2010.
DeleteKyle Long coming out of retirement. He's the type of guy the 49ers should be trying to sign on an incentive laden contract.
ReplyDeleteFor what it's worth, he talks very highly of Lynch:
DeleteQuoting a Maiocco article today:
Long said he could tell from watching the 49ers play that it was a team with outstanding camaraderie. That, he said, is a tribute to general manager John Lynch.
“It’s no surprise John Lynch built that. He gets it,” Long said. “He’s been on both sides of it. And if I’m in a locker room and I know that John Lynch is responsible for picking my teammates, I mean, come on.
https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/49ers/unretired-guard-kyle-long-fits-49ers-gm-john-lynchs-archetype
Bring him in, I say.
DeleteTeam building starts next week. Some question will be answered and other questions will arise.
ReplyDeleteBtw another fine article today, SMcG.
ReplyDeleteThanks George.
DeleteAnother good piece, Scooter.
ReplyDeleteTE. I like Tremble over Jordan. but I'd be happy with either one.
I would like to see Woerner for another season as well. Dwelley is valuable to the team, mho.
Slater. Slater may not have the arm length that the NFL has deemed imperative, but he more than compensates with his great athleticism.
Also, it was nice to see a couple of 49ers scouts on hand to see Quinn Meinerz pro-day workout today. A Slater, Meinerz draft could be a great OL haul.
Thanks AES. Meinerz is having himself one heck of a pre-draft process. I previously thought he may not have the requisite athleticism for Shanahan, but that was a show he put on today.
DeleteScooter,
ReplyDeleteI like that your article focuses on positions other than the obvious like O line and DBs.
However, my take is somewhat different from yours.
First, I don't think ShanaLynch ever had any intention of signing a high-priced TE or drafting one in the first two days of the draft.
I find no evidence that "last offseason the 49ers pushed hard to sign Austin Hooper early in the FA period." All rumors and speculations were based on this Mike Silver tweet (and his comments on TV):
https://twitter.com/MikeSilver/status/1239593300002103296
Matt Miller and other "hot-takers" ran with it.
Did the Niners contact Hooper's agents? I am sure they did. They may have even had some preliminary discussions about the money. But the reason is very clear in my mind. They were gauging the top end of the TE market in preparation for negotiations of Kittle's contract later that summer.
Rather than speculate, we just have to see what ShanaLynch actually do on TEs. They have signed Reed on the cheap and retained UDFA's like Dwelley. Their TE draft picks are in the 4th and 5th rounds. I get the feeling that ShanahLynch believe that they can find good value on TEs in the third day. They are not going to overload money on that position by signing two $10M+ per year players.
I was surprised that you did not consider the development of Woerner in his second year. Considering Woerner had had very little off-season development, I was reasonably satisfied with his progress by the end of the season. Kittle, Woerner and Dwelley are together most likely a top-10 TE group.
I will not be surprised if they pick up a TE on the third day, but I will be surprised if they draft one on the first or second days.
Thanks Mood, all good, valid points.
DeleteYou are correct that all the speculation of the 49ers interest in Hooper came from Mike Silver originally. However, Silver is pretty well connected. It isn't like a local guy just speculating.
Combined with drafting Hurd in the 3rd in 2019, and then trying out a number of vet TEs before settling on Reed, I think there is ample enough reason to believe they genuinely had interest in Hooper.
And then you have them confirmed to be meeting with a couple of likely round 2-4 TEs in this years draft.
So no, we won't know anything for sure until something does (or doesn't) happen, but as I said, don't be surprised when it does.
As for Woerner, I don't think they ever intended for him to be much more than a blocking TE.
It sounded like Silver got the info from Hooper's agent and not from the Niners FO. Hooper's agent has every reason to play up the interest in his client and he did his job very well - securing a great contract for Hooper. The Niners FO is very tight and there has been no leak whatsoever under ShanaLynch. Even Schefter gets his Niners breaking news from the NFL office.
DeleteAgain, none of the vet TEs they considered for signing are top-10 TE like Hooper. I don't see anyway they would have signed Hooper to $10M per year and then signed Kittle for $15M/yr.
Regarding Woerner, Shanahan is on record stating that he sees Woerner more than a blocker.
https://sports.yahoo.com/kyle-shanahan-explains-charlie-woerner-000945821.html
But the upcoming draft will indicate if they are satisfied with Woerner's growth. They are always ready to improve at every position -- for the right price.
By the way, I had a typo in my earlier comment. I meant to say "Their TE draft picks are in the 5th and 6th rounds." (not 4th and 5th).
With regard to Hurd, Shanahan has made it clear that Hurd has to prove himself as a receiver before he has a chance to be featured as a move TE.
https://247sports.com/nfl/san-francisco-49ers/Article/Kyle-Shanahan-Jalen-Hurd-position-changes-132812185/
At this point, Hurd has a long road back to being a productive receiver. I am hoping both his back and ACL have healed well.
Regarding Hooper, it makes zero sense to be doing due diligence regarding contract parameters as the reason for getting in touch with his agent. The parameters of the deal are public knowledge not long after he signs, and they were never going to extend Kittle before Hooper signed somewhere. So his agent either flat out lied to Silver about the 49ers interest (risky for future business dealings), or they were interested.
DeleteRe Hurd, sure, that is what Shanahan said. Yet the bear reporters have outlined that in the practices prior to getting hurt he was being used all over, and primarily playing slot. Ptetty much what Reed did when healthy last year. Basically, don't believe everything Shanahan and Lynch say.
That goes for Woerner too. I'm sure they would love him to be more than just a blocking TE, certainly want other teams to believe that, but I don't think he's a guy they envision as their move TE.
A 2021 draft need that hasn't been discussed: Running back.
ReplyDelete* A likely day 3 sleeper the 49ers meet with: RB Pooka Williams at his Pro Day, where he ran a 4.38 40-yard dash...Check out his video....
https://www.ninersnation.com/2021/3/9/22320016/49ers-meet-with-rb-pooka-williams-at-his-pro-day-where-he-ran-a-4-38-40-yard-dash