Tuesday, March 23, 2021

Taking stock: where the 49ers sit after the first week of free agency

By Scooter_McG

With the first week of FA almost over, now is a good time to take stock of the 49ers situation. As a quick recap, notable moves the 49ers have made this off-season include (note: I have left out some of the bottom of the roster/ training camp body moves):

  • Re-signed: Josh Rosen, Trent Williams, Daniel Brunskill, Kyle Juszczyk, Jeff Wilson, Austin Walter, Ross Dwelley, Jauan Jennings, River Cracraft, DJ Jones, Emmanuel Moseley, Jason Verrett, Dontae Johnson, Ken Webster, Jaquiski Tartt, Marcell Harris, Taybor Pepper.
  • Signed: Alex Mack, Trent Sherfield, Samson Ebukam, Tavon Wilson.
  • Lost: Kendrick Bourne, Solomon Thomas, Ahkello Witherspoon.

Notable remaining 49ers FAs include Nick Mullens, CJ Beathard, Ben Garland, Tevin Coleman, Jordan Reed, Trent Taylor, Kerry Hyder, Ronald Blair, Dion Jordan, Jordan Willis, Richard Sherman, K’Wuan Williams and Jamar Taylor.

The 49ers now have players that can start at every position on the roster, though some positions are noticeably weaker than others and there are some depth issues. As it stands, this is how I see the 49ers position groups.

QB: At this point it appears JG has the starting spot sewn up for 2021, but the 49ers still need to figure out what they are doing behind him this season as well as what the position holds moving forward.

OL: The starting OL unit now seems pretty set, with Williams, Tomlinson, Mack, Brunskill and McGlinchey. There is decent depth at OT and OG as well, with Coleman, McKivitz and Skule. However, a backup center could be added and the team may want more competition at OG – and this can potentially be taken care of with one player. Also, don’t rule out McGlinchey getting the Trent Brown treatment if the 49ers see an upgrade available in the draft.

RB/FB: Juice is back and will man the FB position. Mostert and Wilson seem set as the 1-2 punch at RB, and Hasty played well enough last season to be given a chance to take the third spot this season. The team could easily roll with what they have, but I expect some additions will be made to the RB room through the draft/ UDFAs.

TE: Kittle is perhaps the best in the business, but his style of play has so far led to him getting banged up each season, including missing much of last year. Shanahan also likes using two TE sets. Behind Kittle there is Dwelley and Woerner, and neither player has proven they can take up the slack or be a reliable number 2.

WR: Samuel and Aiyuk have the making of an electric starting duo, if they can remain on the field. However, that proved a problem last season and there isn’t much proven depth on the roster behind them.

Edge: Armstead, Bosa and Ebukam look a good trio, and recent reports indicate that Dee Ford is expected to be fit enough to resume playing which would be a massive boon for the team. However, the 49ers would be foolish to rely on Ford’s health, and add in Bosa coming back from a torn ACL, some quality depth is still needed.

DT: Kinlaw, Jones, Givens, Street and Daniels were the DTs for most of last season (after Thomas went down with an ACL tear), and they all remain on the roster after Jones was re-signed. Armstead also slides into DT on passing downs. The team may look to add some depth and competition, but at this stage that seems like a low priority.

LB: Warner and Greenlaw are an excellent starting pair and figure to see the majority of snaps at LB in 2021. Al-Shaair and Flannigan-Fowles provide depth and may compete for the SAM role in base formations. Ebukam could also potentially see some time at SAM in base, though in his introductory press conference he suggested the 49ers want him to play DE primarily. A LB will likely be added for depth and competition, but it seems unlikely this will be a priority position.

Slot CB: K’Wuan Williams and Jamar Taylor were the main starters at this position last season, and both remain unsigned. Dontae Johnson played some snaps in the slot and can start if needed, but this is clearly one of the biggest needs remaining.

Outside CB: Moseley and Verrett will most likely be the starters barring any major additions, and Johnson can be a capable backup, but after that that the position is looking perilously lean. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a couple more additions at this position.

Safety: Jimmie Ward and the newly re-signed Tartt will be the starting safeties once again, while adding Wilson provides an experienced backup (primarily at SS). The 49ers also have Marcell Harris and Tarvarius Moore for depth, both who have gained valuable experience over the past two seasons. The recent moves for Tartt and Wilson have made the safety room one of the strongest and deepest on the team right now. Even so, four of these players are going to be FAs next year, so don’t rule out a rookie being added.

STs: Not much to see here. 49ers are set with their specialists, and have some excellent STs coverage players.

Based on the above, the major remaining needs I see (not necessarily in this order) are slot CB (starter and depth), outside CB (competition for starter role plus depth), edge depth, backup QB/ QBOTF, third WR, #2 TE and backup center

As it currently stands, the 49ers have around $20M in remaining cap space, not accounting for the recent deals for Tartt and Wilson. Assuming around $15M is set aside for the rookies, a Fred Warner extension and in-season cap flexibility, there is still enough cap space to add more FAs to help fill some of the remaining holes on the team. And more cap space can be created if needed fairly easily, even if they don’t want to touch JG’s contract – additional cap space could be freed up easily by restructuring Ward’s contract, for instance.

For mine the most obvious position that I expect to still be filled via FA is slot CB, with Williams still on the market as well as a number of other decent vet options. I also expect another vet edge player to be added (someone like Hyder) as well as a low budget outside CB looking for a 1-year prove it, incentive-based deal (someone like Gareon Conley may be a fit). The 49ers have also spoken to Joe Flacco and shown interest in some other vet QBs, so it would not surprise if a low cost vet QB is added to compete for the backup role. Other guys on the vet minimum will also likely be added for camp competition, but will have minimal implications on the cap. This would set them up nicely heading into the draft.

How do you see the 49ers remaining needs, and how do you expect the 49ers to fill them from here?

62 comments:

  1. They'd be fools to count on getting anything from either, Ford or Bosa. I can see, Hyder returning, Williams returning and signing a cheap vet OG. I'd draft two edge players from a deep pool. One early, one late. It would also be foolish to count on, Verrett making it through a 17 game season. I'd draft two cb's, outside early, slot day 3. Deep wr class and I'd expect them to add one on day 3, preferably one that has return experience too. I'd be somewhat surprised if they were to give, McGlinchey the Trent Brown treatment. I think they really like him. His pass pro will never be at the level his run blocking is, but I do expect it to improve this year. I don't think they'll draft an OL until late day 3. Should be a center to develop under, Mack unless, Shepley has shown them something. Well written and fine presentation, Scooter. Thanks!

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    1. Thanks razor.

      I don't think they will have the roster space for Hyder + 2 rookies, along with who they already have.

      I think the plan will be to head into the draft with as much flexibility as possible, so I still expect a few signings at key positions.

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    2. Even if, Bosa and Ford start the season on PUP?

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    3. You don't draft a guy for 6 games. They can re-sign Dion Jordan or Jordan Willis to be that guy.

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    4. Oh, forgot to reply to your comment re McGlinchey earlier - yes I agree it would be surprising. I don't think it is likely. But I also think it is something that shouldn't be ruled out as a possibility if an OT they really like falls to them. For e.g., if Teven Jenkins was available at pick 43, I could see them strongly consider it. Because soon they will need to start paying McGlinchey, and I don't know whether they feel he is worth a second contract.

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    5. I really don't think they will draft ol until day 3.

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  2. Weakest position group is WR followed by the QB and then the CB. Depth is achieved over time as the rosters fill out. I agree with Razor that I doubt McGlinchey gets the Trent Brown treatment, but I disagree with him on Bosa. Bosa has one of those types of 'mindsets' or 'will power' that most people don't have nor do they understand mind over matter. I expect him to be day one starter in Sept. I dont expect to see Ford to play ever again...

    First pick - cb
    Second pick - edge Patrick Jones
    Third pick - center

    WR's see what happens...
    CJ is still the best bet for backing up JG
    Hyder and K Williams would fulfill my FA acquisitions

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    1. Bosa is an alien but as a GM you have to proceed as if he won't be immediately available, and that's what I expect, Lynch to do.

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    2. At the moment I can't see a weaker position on the team than CB. But I expect that will change before the draft.

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    3. CB is weak in and only because of the lack of depth at this point. Sherm is gone (but he hardly played last year), Spoon is gone (good riddance, dude was soft), and Williams is up in the air but if they brought him back (as he seems to have not much action so far) than the CB starters, at least, are all solid.

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    4. Yes, but until they do add a starting slot CB and some depth, it is in my mind the weakest position on the team right now. And Verrett is good if healthy, but we all know his history in that regard.

      As I have said, I fully expect them to add a slot CB and another outside CB before the draft, but let's just say that if the draft was today, CB would be a big need.

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    5. Welp, seems the DBs are now a position of strength with KW back.

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    6. They now have their starters. Seriously lacking in depth though.

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  3. I'd still try to bring back Jordan Reed. We never truly got to see him and Kittle out there together, needs to happen.

    And anyone selling on Bosa at this point is ignorant. The guy had a freak injury on a trash playing surface, he's killing his rehab and will be a monster this year, book it.

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    1. Not selling, just being realistic. He had a lot of structural damage around the acl. They won't rush him back either. Setbacks happen. Just to be clear, I am not betting against him but I'm also not counting on him. That would be a mistake.

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    2. I fully expect a TE to be drafted reasonably high by the 49ers this year. Reed likely a fallback option if they miss out in the draft, assuming he remains unsigned again.

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  4. Good summary, Scooter. Upgrade on backup QB and NCB are probably the biggest needs remaining in FA. Won't be surprised if Flacco and K'Waun are signed later this week. I also can see either Jordan Willis or Hyder returning, if not both.

    On a different note, I think the expectations of the mid-round rookies from last year have been unreasonably high -- considering the loss of most of the off-season. I saw steady improvement in both Woerner and McKivitz as the season wore on. I don't see the Niners drafting next month under the assumption that these two have not lived up to their expectations.

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    1. Yep, McKivitz might be poised to breakout under, Foerster. I suspect he had some input on his draft selection.

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    2. Mood, do you find it at all odd the team has not made getting a good vet QB as a backup a priority, given both Shanahan and Lynch said after the season that this was something they saw as a priority?

      Maybe they sign Flacco, but they clearly aren't giving him the full court press. Do they see him as a big upgrade behind JG? And if so, what are they waiting for?

      I know you believe a rookie can't be the backup... but what avenue to upgrading the position do you see as being better at this point?

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    3. Scooter,

      If I were to guess, I'd say that they followed their usual MO of putting a price on the FA QBs and the likes of Dalton went at a significantly higher price at a time when they had not signed their primary targets.

      The fact that they did not sign Flacco when he was here tells me that they are confident they can still get another vet of Flacco's caliber. Are they in conversation with Smith's agent? Do they see Rosen after an off-season in Kyle's system as being an upgrade on Mullens/Beathard? That's not too much of a stretch since our dynamic duo set a pretty low bar.

      What do you think?

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    4. While I believe they were interested in adding a vet QB to the room, I don't think they ever intended to pay much money on a vet QB to be the backup, and don't see any vet QBs currently available they consider an upgrade over what they had last year.

      I think they have always had their eyes on the draft for upgrading the QB room.

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  5. Your best article yet, imo. Thanks very much for taking the time to do this.

    QBOTF -- Draft (1st pick -- Jones)
    Backup QB -- FA (Flacco)

    Slot CB (starter and depth) -- Starter from FA (?), depth from Draft (Mid round)
    Outside CB -- Competition for starter from Draft (2nd pick), depth from FA

    Edge depth -- FA (Hyder) and Draft (Mid round)


    Third WR -- Inhouse (Hurd, James, or Sherfield)

    #2 TE -- Inhouse (Dwelley), Draft (Mid round)

    Backup center -- Draft (Later round)

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    1. Thanks George. What you lay out there is pretty much what I am thinking at this point, too.

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    2. George,

      Josh Johnson is signed to the roster through 2021. He is a camp body, but traditionally we have gone into OTAs with 4 QBs. Jimmy, Rosen and Johnson make 3 QBs already. So I think the draft will provide 1 more QB, which implies that 9ers won't sign Flacco. I would say there is an 80% chance that Shanalynch will move up for a QB in the 1st round.

      This would be the most logical, pro-cap-healthy move.

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  6. I believe everyone made solid points, my only addition is that I would like to see K'waun signed as I believe he has been stellar for them and deserves to be extended for his play and the contract he played under. My $.02... and the 49ers have typically been good about doing that.

    I haven't seen any reports on Dee Ford indicating he would be ready to return for the season, but that would be welcome news.

    I hope they go into the draft with the BPA mentality and it will be interesting what they elect to do with the late round picks- ie, use them to move up or possibly trade out for next season as the possibility of making the roster may be slim for many of them now with the depth they have accumulated during free agency.

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    1. As far as I can tell Williams must have an offer on the table from the 49ers to return, but less than what he wants. A number of players have been trying to convince him to stay, which would only happen if the team was making him an offer. So I feel confident the team is still in the market to add a starting slot CB in FA.

      The Dee Ford news was broken by the Athletic.

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  7. NT Zack Kerr has been signed. More depth at DT.

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  8. You nailed it again Scooter!
    The 9ers have one big problem left in free agency (backup QB), and one minor problem (NCB).
    * Signing K'Wuan Williams solves the minor problem. Other FA signings are for depth.
    * Signing a Back up QB is the 9ers major problem. But IMHO, Singing Flacco would be a waste of money, which means the 9ers will do one of 3 things in the draft.....
    A) Move up to sign their QBOTF (which I doubt they do).
    B) Sign Wilson, Fields, or Lance, if available at #12
    C) Trade down with #12 for Mac Jones and another 2nd Rd pick
    * In the 2nd Rd I expect ShanaLynch to draft a CB and a EDGE rusher, but wouldn't be surprised if they drafted a TE?

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    1. I would agree on Flacco, GEEP (See my comment above for George, as to the reasoning behind it)

      On the other hand, I think they will go with Option A that you have listed here. :)

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    2. GEEP, I see it somewhat similar. The 49ers don't appear to be pushing hard to sign a vet backup, despite acknowledging at the end of the season they need to upgrade. Which to me says they don't see the guys available in FA as clear upgrades on what they had (which would also gel with what they consistently said about CJ and Mullens over the past few years).

      That leaves the draft, and I find it hard to believe the team would see a mid to late round QB an upgrade either.

      The moves they have made in FA put them in a good spot to take a QB early.

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  9. I like this signing. Maybe Kentavius, in Razor lingo, will be shown the street?

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  10. Ha! Good one, George. I wonder if, Shanny sees, Rosen as the upgrade behind, Jimmy that, Lynch was talking about. Jimmy/Rosen/Davis Mills?

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    1. I struggle to believe that is the case. Would seem very strange that a guy they see as a clear upgrade over Mullens and Beathard, who was available all year from the Bucs PS, and they waited until they literally had to sign someone off a team's PS late last year? And they signed him after first signing Josh Johnson? Unless he absolutely blew them away in the couple of weeks he was with the team, I really doubt they are convinced Rosen is the guy to be the backup.

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    2. I know you frown on Mac Jones. That said, he could be at least a Jimmy at a far cheaper price.

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    3. I'm all aboard the Mac Jones train, George. With our powers combined, maybe we can convince razor!

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    4. Rosen might be, Shanny's pet project. Who knows? Is, Flacco better? Maybe but evidently not enough to justify paying him his asking price perhaps. Mac Jones does not possess one trait to justify taking him in the first round. Having said that, if, Shanny is in love, far be it from me to object!😎

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    5. Razor, imo the following justifies taking Jones in the first round:
      -- He reads defenses well, anticipates where the coverage will be, and throws before his receivers make breaks.
      -- His arm is adequate to make all the throws.
      -- His accuracy is very good.

      Given that the starting QB is the most important player on a team, I think that's enough. He'll also save the team $50 to $80 million (my guestimate), which these days makes him more valuable.

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    6. he already reads defenses well, etc., and appears ready to start

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    7. He reads defenses well, anticipates where the coverage will be, and throws before his receivers make breaks.

      He had all day to throw behind that line.

      His arm is adequate to make all the throws.

      Just as long as he has a clean pocket to get every ounce of his lower body into the throw.

      His accuracy is very good.

      Mac Jones completed 12 of 21 passes for 135 yards, three touchdowns, one interception, two sacks and a passer rating of 96.2 on bootlegs.
      Highest accuracy rate on passes 20+ yards:
      1. Zach Wilson - 73%
      2. Justin Fields - 70%
      3. Sam Howell - 58%
      4. Trevor Lawrence - 56%

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    8. I see where you're coming from. How would you explain Chris Simms? Sincere question.

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    9. George, Simms is an expert and I'm just a hack. I said back in February, I was afraid, Shanny would love, Mac Jones. Said he'd remind him of, Kirk Cousins. Could he be the, Daniel Jones of this draft? I suppose so but I got to see it before I buy into all this top 10 hype on, Mac Jones. Seems to me he's the 5th qb to come off the board based on potential at the next level. I still think he's more likely to come off the board in the 20's before he does top 12, but what do I know?

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    10. There's no way I could draft, Jones in the 1st round. To me, he's a backup or low-level starter. I sure hope, Shanny doesn't pull a, Gettleman.

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  11. Imo, Rosen would be a better backup than what we've had in Mullens and CJ. Would that be enough for them? Might have to settle for it.

    Biderman:
    JOE FLACCO WATCH
    Flacco visited the Eagles on Monday, according to a report from the San Francisco Chronicle, where he might have a chance to back up Jalen Hurts after the team traded Carson Wentz to the Indianapolis Colts.

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  12. Wonder if that signifies the Eagles won't be drafting a QB.

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  13. Hyder rushing for the enemy, Seattle!

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    1. Yup. And Jordan Willis re-signed by the 49ers immediately after. I think they may have been trying to sign Hyder but in the end the Seahawks offer was too much.

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    2. That's ok. Willis looked like he was taking some baby steps towards the end of the season.

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    3. I think they had a one-year offer on the table for Hyder and was waiting for him to finish shopping around. Willis was either Plan B or was going to get a slightly lower offer had Hyder signed with the Niners. I think Willis will develop well under Kocurek into a rotational Bravo piece.

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    4. I believe that is right Mood. Same principle I believe with Williams.

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  14. Sorry to see Hyder go but good for him.

    Let's hope the light goes on for Willis.
    At the Combine:
    40-yard dash in 4.53 seconds
    39-inch vertical
    125-inch broad jump
    6.85-second three-cone

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    1. Per your previous comment on Street George, I can never understand how he excels in strength, yet can't bull rush and collapse the pocket consistently....

      Good read on DJ Jones.... it is always good to here there are good vibes in SF, as I believe it helps draw players.

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    2. oops- link: https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/49ers/49ers-dj-jones-names-one-d-lineman-he-expects-big-2021-season

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    3. Thanks for the article dip. Good one.

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  15. Diptown, in response to your comment about Street, I think you're referring to the viral video of him squatting 700 lbs. It seems to me that bull rushing employs a different set of muscles, plus the lineman you're pushing gets the chance to get under your pads and push back.

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