Thursday, March 11, 2021

Seeking depth at WR

By Scooter_McG

The 49ers have two young, exciting playmakers at WR in Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. When healthy they provide the 49ers an excellent WR duo to complement Kittle and the ground game. However, staying on the field was a problem last year, in particular for Samuel. Further, the main backup to Deebo and Aiyuk last year (Bourne) is a FA, and the rest of the WR depth chart has yet to distinguish themselves, with the likes of James, Taylor and Benjamin (back after sitting out last year) the most accomplished backups currently on the roster.  

Providing JG (or whoever is under centre for the 49ers in 2021) with additional weapons on the perimeter is a must to ensure the team has a reliable stable of playmakers it can turn to throughout the season.

Shanahan has shown a strong preference for receivers that offer significant run after catch (RAC) ability, whether it be through speed and elusiveness (like Aiyuk, Pettis and Sanders) or power and brute strength (like Deebo and Kittle). This is at the core of his offense. Ability to separate is also a trait Shanahan looks for, as well as toughness (after learning his lesson with Pettis).

Another staple of Shanahan’s offense historically has been a speedy complement at WR to stretch a defense vertically and open up room underneath in both the pass and run game, while in recent years the team has also looked to add big slot WRs with positional flexibility in Hurd (2019) and Jennings (2020).

With so little established depth behind Deebo and Aiyuk the 49ers could look to add WRs to fit any of the above parameters. But for mine the key areas the team is lacking is a reliable WR that can fill in as a starter in place of Samuel or Aiyuk when needed, a reliable slot WR, and a guy that makes defenses respect the deep ball. That doesn’t mean they need to add three WRs – the guy(s) they add can cover more than one of those traits. And if you read my last article you will likely realise that I think the slot WR can and will partially be covered by an addition at TE. If I had to guess, I would say two WRs will be added this offseason to compete with the guys already on the roster.  

As is going to be the case with many positions this offseason, FA will offer a good number of viable options with plenty of potential for a bargain due to the pandemic impacted salary cap. One name that 49ers fans will be familiar with is Emmanuel Sanders who was recently released by the Saints. He could prove a savvy pick up for this team, providing a reliable veteran presence that even at 34 can play any of the WR positions at a high level, offering enough speed to still be a threat to go deep but doing most of his work attacking the short and intermediate areas. The impact he had on the 49ers young WR group in 2019 was immediate and significant, and he could be a real asset in the development of Deebo and Aiyuk. But salary will be a big consideration, and with so many good options available in FA the 49ers should not overpay to sign Sanders this offseason.

Some high profile names in FA include Kenny Golloday, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Curtis Samuel, TY Hilton, Will Fuller, Golden Tate, Marvin Jones, Sammy Watkins, DeSean Jackson, AJ Green and Antonio Brown. JuJu could be a sneaky one to keep an eye on if the 49ers feel like making a splash – he would fit that big, tough slot WR with RAC ability role. But given his likely salary demands it would seem unlikely. Curtis Samuel would also seem interesting given his positional flexibility as a WR/RB hybrid type, but again, salary will likely make him outside the 49ers grasp.

On more of a budget, someone like John Brown who was released by the Bills could be an interesting one as a guy that stretch the defense, in a similar vein to Goodwin. While a guy that could likely be added on the vet minimum is John Ross, who could offer similar potential but has yet t put it together in the NFL.

It is also expected to be another strong year for WRs in the draft, and the 49ers will no doubt look to add a WR or two through this avenue. However, I will go into potential draft options in a future article.

What do you think the 49ers will do at WR, and who might be an option in FA?

35 comments:

  1. Ross would give us the speed we've been missing since we traded Goodwin. We know that Ross was on Shanny's short list when he was in the draft. With him also being cheap, he'd be my guess. Also, you never know if we bring back Jordan Matthews.

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    1. I think Ross could well be a guy they bring in, but only at or close to the vet minimum. And I don't think he would impact on adding other WRs - basically no or low guaranteed money and let him compete.

      Matthews... he's more a camp body and emergency guy you sign off the street these days. Again, they may well bring him in and let him compete, but they've already done that before and he got beat out by most of the same guys still on the roster.

      I think the 49ers can afford to splash a little more cash than that at WR.

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    2. I think signing Trent Williams is their top priority and elite tackles don't come cheap. With Richburg essentially done and Shanny valuing the C position, I think we'll be looking to sign Alex Mack. I really hope we're able to bring back Verrett and Juice too.

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    3. Agree on all of the above #80.

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  2. The Seahawks took, D J Reed from us so lets take David Moore from them. I fully expect them to draft another wr from a deep class too. Good write up, Scooter.

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    1. Thanks razor. Imo if they are thinking Moore they may as well just re-sign Bourne instead.

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  3. SMcG, your articles are getting to be a habit, and I look forward to them. This one was especially well written and thought out. Not the only one you've written like that, though. Thanks. As an aside, I'm getting to think that with 10 draft picks (with 5 in the first four rounds) and a decent amount of cap room, we're in good position to solidify ourselves for the next few years. This is getting exciting again. Another aside: I watch a few Austrialian cop dramas on Acorn, etc. and marvel at the society you've built as well as the natural beauty of your place. Gotta visit some day.

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    1. Appreciate it George. I agree the team is in a decent position to build a good roster for 2021 and the next few years.

      Australia is a beautiful country, highly recommend visiting us!

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  4. Scooter: As usual, a complete list of 9er options for the 2021 season.
    For me, it's Sanders! If Lynch can sign him for a reasonable price of $6 Mil P/Y plus incentives, he should do it!
    I also agree, as discussed before, that a move TE will be added in the draft.
    My question for you, or anyone that cares to share their opinion, with limited resources (salary cap), how much should the 9ers be willing to pay to sign a FA WR? Assume the 9ers have signed TW (for ~$20Mil P/Y and JG is the starting QB.

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    1. how much should the 9ers be willing to pay to sign a FA WR?

      Not much. Bargain bin, after the f/a dust settles wr. They'll presumably shoot their f/a wad on Williams.

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    2. Razor: Would you go $20 Mil P/Y for TW? Would you go more than $20 Mil? If so, how much in base, how much
      in incentives and how much back loaded?

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    3. I'd give him a 5 year deal at $23.5 million per year tops, with only $8 million counting towards this year. $45 million guaranteed.

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    4. Sanders would make a lot of sense, but $6M is the upper limit I would consider. Plenty of other options available.

      With Williams, around $22.5M per season is what I think the 49ers should consider his maximum value with the extra space the 49ers now have under the cap.

      I'm thinking 4 years, $90M, but with a voidable 5th year to spread the signing bonus. 2021 cap hit of around $10M.

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    5. I should say - $6M cap hit in 2021 is the upper limit I would consider for Sanders. Can pay him more than that if they sign him to a deal that is more than 1 year to spread a signing bonus out.

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  5. After some confusion yesterday, with respect to the 9ers compensatory draft picks, here is a complete list of all the 9ers 2021 draft picks, including the 3rd and 5th Rd.

    Here is the 49ers’ latest, updated list of draft picks:

    Round 1, Pick 12
    Round 2, Pick 43
    Round 3, Pick 102 (compensatory)
    Round 4, Pick 117
    Round 5, Pick 155
    Round 5, Pick 172 (via New Orleans)
    Round 5, Pick 180 (Compensatory)
    Round 6, Pick 193
    Round 7, Pick 229 (via New York Jets)
    Round 7, Pick 239

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  6. Nice article, Scooter.

    I can see a connection between JuJu and the Jets and Golladay and the Jags -- or vice versa. Niners likely won't offer Sanders more than $6-$7M per year (I'd heard they offered him $8M against $10M per season by the Saints). It's more likely he goes to the Jets or Patriots or a team with good cap situation looking for a veteran receiver in a leadership role.

    I don't see Niners active in the FA WR market other than look to bring back Bourne at a good price. The drafts over the last 2-3 years have been teeming with good receivers and I expect it to be the same this year.

    I'm not sold on Deebo's availablity for a full season based on his running style and his inability to stay in the necessary physical shape. We'll see if that changes.

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    Replies
    1. I agree re: Deebo, it is a concern. Which makes adding a reliable 3rd (and even 4th) option important imo.

      I think they will add the WR room in both FA and the draft.

      Delete
  7. Jim Mora interview by, Grant on Josh Rosen. I think that's, Grant's niche; doing interviews. He does a very good job with them. Needless to say, Josh Rosen has a lot of growing up to do. Anyone looking for him to be a player in the qb hierarchy before reading this interview has to come away disillusioned.

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    Replies
    1. Razor, I just finished reading the article. If anyone asked themselves why Rosen hasn't been able to stick somewhere, here is the answer. Compounding the problem, imo, is that he grew up rich. Everything's been handed to him. I hope he lasts through pre-season but my gut tells me that he won't.

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    2. Good insight into why Rosen has had trouble sticking anywhere, though circumstance has also played its part - Kingsbury just wanted his own guy.

      I think Rosen actually started to learn his lesson last season - my understanding is he had offers before the 49ers to leave the Bucs but he wanted to learn from Brady. He was content to stay on the PS to do so. And I think the only reason he agreed to leave is that he genuinely felt the 49ers and the chance to learn under Shanahan was a great opportunity.

      We know he is talented, and I do think he is starting to wisen up, but even so I can't get on board with the idea of assuming Rosen will be more than a camp body. You certainly hope for more, but simply can't expect it at this stage.

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    3. Scooter, I hope you're right about him starting to learn his lesson, but as you say, you "can't expect it at this stage." Besides, there's so much happening right now at QB1 and QB2. Even if Garoppolo stays, Rosen won't be QB2 unless he blows Kyle away during training camp and pre-season or the vet they sign falls on his face. Just stating the obvious.

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  8. https://www.si.com/nfl/49ers/news/jim-mora-jr-explains-why-49ers-qb-josh-rosen-has-not-lived-up-to-expectations

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  9. Deebo interview on Prime Time -- a little mouthing off at the Rams, "you know what I am saying"...
    https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/episode-46-unfair-treatment/id1528547910?i=1000511581057

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  10. I think Sanders would be a smart move at a fair price.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Definitely. I could see the 49ers offering him a 2 year deal, with a player option on the 2nd year so he can void the contract in 2022 if he wants to, around $15M in total. $8M signing bonus and effectively vet minimum salary year 1, making his cap hit around $5M in 2021. $6M salary year 2, $10M cap hit in 2022.

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  11. Jane Slater
    @SlaterNFL
    · 7h
    Edge rusher Joseph Ossai vertical 41.5 Eyes #TexasProDay

    Yikes!

    ReplyDelete
  12. I prefer Emmanuel Sanders if the price is right. Obviously, he is familiar with both Shanahan and Garoppolo. He could come in and not miss a beat.

    But I am intrigued by Ross' blazing speed. He wouldn't need to catch more than 30-40 passes for the season, his speed would create some mismatches for the defense and give D-cords one more weapon to plan against.
    John Ross in a Shanahan offense could make for some very entertaining football.
    Also, I believe that he could come in for less than E.Sanders.
    Good piece Scooter.

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    Replies
    1. Thanks AES.

      If the 49ers feel they can afford it, the guy I think they would ideally like to add is JuJu. But yeah, Sanders seems a far more likely option, and I think Ross could well be a guy they look to add on the cheap to compete for a spot as their deep threat.

      Delete
    2. Yep, think cheap, cheap, cheap at wr in f/a, and then drafting a guy like, Marquez Stevenson, Wr, Houston on day 3.

      Delete
    3. Razor,
      A guy you mentioned some time back was Dwayne Eskridge. This kid is one of the most exciting players in the draft and could certainly handle the slot as well as ST's in the return game.

      Delete
  13. Dang, Bob McGinn didn't really think a whole lot about Ojulari classifying him as low-talent, high-effort ...

    ReplyDelete
  14. OFF TOPIC. but good information:
    * 2021 NFL free agency: Ranking top 25 49ers targets for new league year.
    https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/49ers/2021-nfl-free-agency-ranking-top-25-49ers-targets-new-league-year

    ReplyDelete
  15. Thanks, GEEP. Nice article by Jennifer Lee Chan. She put a lot of thought into it. Lots of information on each player.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Good stuff Scooter,
    While I would love to bring Sanders or even Green in. I just don't think it would be wise given what they would cost, even if they were willing to take a discounted 1 yr contract. (Of course that is if SF resigns Williams.)
    The draft just seems like the best way to get your 3rd receiver, especially given that quality talent should be available in the later rounds.
    In regards to Williams, I heard an interesting suggestion. Basically stating that because of the quality OT's and lack of high end EDGE's, SF should let Williams walk and draft Slater or Darrishaw, bring in a quality C, and go hard after and Edge in Free Agency.

    BTW, watching Lance throw, He has a absolute Cannon but he is scattershot with his accuracy even going against air. I like him, but he is a bit like a young Cam. A team would be best suited to build an offense around him and use him as a runner as well.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Shoup,
    Agree. Maybe I've become a little cynical and my standard of QB is too high. But I want to see a QB hit their receivers in stride.
    Whether going over the middle on a slant or going deep, the receiver should never need to break stride because the pass is thrown slightly behind him.

    I saw this a few times during Lance' workout. While many of his throws were on the money, the slightly off throws are a concern. The pros are less forgiving then college if a pass is not on target.

    ReplyDelete

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