By Scooter_McG
Shanahan and Lynch have made fortifying the DL a priority
ever since they took charge in 2017. But the team’s defense didn’t take off
until they added Bosa and Ford ahead of the 2019 season, turning the 49ers DL
into one of the most feared units in the NFL. When the team lost Buckner after
the 2019 season, they immediately replaced him with another 1st
round DT in Kinlaw. The commitment to having a top tier DL remains strong.
With a rookie DC taking charge in Ryans, it would behoove
Shanahan and Lynch to make his transition from position coach as easy as
possible by giving him a strong defensive roster to work with. And given how
important Shanahan and Lynch see the DL, the method for easing Ryans in will
likely be in the form of providing him with a strong DL unit.
Which makes this upcoming offseason a very interesting one
from the point of view of the DL. Bosa, Armstead and Ford remain under contract
from the vaunted 2019 DL, and the hope will be that Kinlaw translates his
immense potential to dominant play in 2021. However, Bosa is coming back from a
serious knee injury and it seems Ford is unlikely to play football again after
back/ neck issues resurfaced in 2020. Even if Ford does it seems a foregone
conclusion it won’t be with the 49ers, and he will likely be released as soon
as he clears medical checks. And a slew of important depth pieces are off
contract, including Hyder who filled in admirably for Bosa last season, as well
as Thomas, Jones and Blair who were all important cogs in that 2019 DL
rotation.
So what will the 49ers do to make sure the DL remains strong
and provides the platform for the rest of the defense?
Realistically, for the defense to return to dominant form it
will require Bosa coming back at least close to 100%. In some respects getting
hurt so early last season was a blessing as it gives him more time to rehab
ahead of the 2021 season. And early reports seem to suggest he is rehabbing
well, so the hope will be he is ready for training camp and can be close to the
same player pretty quickly.
But living on hope is a fool’s game – to reliably provide
consistently good play from the DL the 49ers need to add pieces around Bosa,
Armstead and Kinlaw. Here I will focus on edge, though some depth at DT will also
be needed, and possibly a starting calibre DT as well.
There are some very good edge players available in FA this
year, with the pick of the crop likely being Shaq Barrett, Leonard Floyd, Bud
Dupree, Trey Hendrickson, Yannick Ngakoue, Jadeveon Clowney, Carl Lawson and
Matt Judon. There are also some one year wonders like Haason Reddick and Romeo
Okwara, as well as some older guys that may still have a little juice left in
the tank such as Justin Houston, Melvin Ingram, Ryan Kerrigan, Bruce Irvin,
Everson Griffen and Jabaal Sheard. Olivier Vernon would be right in the mix
also, however, he is coming back from a torn Achilles which will put his
contribution in 2021 in doubt.
The options in FA are numerous, and in addition to the above
the 49ers have players like Hyder and Blair they could re-sign. With so many
edge players available in FA, there will be some decent payers that can be
added for relatively low cost.
The draft also has some quality depth available this year,
though there are no clear cut high end talents such as Bosa in 2019 or Chase
Young last year. In my opinion day 2 is where the strength of the edge class
will lie in the draft this year.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see one of Hyder or Blair brought
back, while also adding one of the above mentioned FAs (and if they don’t
re-sign Trent Williams, potentially one of the top ones) and a lower tier/ cost
player for depth. Getting ~$11M in cap carryover will certainly help in this
regard. In the draft I wouldn’t be shocked to see a DE taken on day 2, or even
day 1 if they trade back from 12.
It looks like SF will have more cap room than initially expected. With that said, the draft still seems like the cheapest way to gain talent on the cheap for this team.
ReplyDeleteThis is why I have been so big on trading out of the first round altogether. The only player good enough to be selected at 12 should we resign Williams is a db, and that doesn't make sense for this roster IMO.
They may trade back, but I think the need to focus on the draft as the main source for replenishing talent is a little overblown. It is the cheapest way, but the cap situation around the league means this year will be an opportunity to get decent talent pretty cheap in FA too.
DeleteScooter, nicely done. Do you think, Willis could take over the role for, Hyder/Blair?
ReplyDeleteI don't get why the, Bengals are letting, Lawson hit the open market. He'd be my target if I'm the 49ers.
Willis could well be the Hyder of the 2021 season.
DeleteRazor: "I don't get why the, Bengals are letting, Lawson hit the open market."
DeleteIn a word, HEALTH! Last season was only the second time he played all 16 games.
We may see him as a prime candidate for the Bengals to use the franchise tag on, which is estimated to be around $17.8 million in 2021 by overthecap.com, but apparently the Bengals don't.
Yea, Lawson has struggled to stay healthy in his career. Especially college, but he finished fourth in pressures (64) and second in QB hits (24) among edge rushers, per PFF. I like his potential in our defense, but he'll likely be out of our price range.
DeleteI didn't see much from Willis to make me excited about his prospects. They might bring him back for camp, but probably only as a depth piece.
DeleteI am a big fan of Lawson, as you know. If they don't re-sign Williams he could definitely be a guy they "splurge" on. But his injury history is a big concern.
Excellent writing, Scooter.
ReplyDeleteDavid Lombardi made a good cap-based case in the Athletic why Niners should re-do Ford's contract if he fails the physical in 3 weeks and still keep him on the 53 roster for the next season even if he does not play again.
Thanks Mood. As I wrote in a previous article, if Ford isn't medically cleared before his injury guarantee kicks in I definitely think they will restructure him. But I see no value in then keeping him around unless they truly believe his injury issues are behind him.
DeleteHere's the value of keeping Ford on the roster for 2021, courtesy David Lombardi:
Delete"A more creative solution might be needed if the 49ers want to lessen the financial damage to a more palatable level here.
The 49ers might consider again restructuring Ford’s contract, this time to pay his injury-guaranteed money as a signing bonus instead of a regular Paragraph 5 base salary. That’d spread out the cap hit over numerous years instead of dumping it all on 2021.
By extension, it might be beneficial for the 49ers to keep Ford on their roster at the veteran league minimum of $1.075 million, even if their worst fears are realized and he’s destined to be on injured reserve for all of 2021.
Not cutting Ford would push back potential dead money damage, since accelerations don’t happen until an actual release does. If the 49ers wait until 2022 to cut Ford with a post-June 1 designation, they could stretch the dead money hit into 2023 — which is the deal’s natural ending point anyway — and open up over $6 million in 2021 cap space."
Ah yes, hadn't thought ahead to 2022. Yeah, they can spread the cap hit out over 3 years that way. But they will need to pay just a smidge more overall (whatever his 2021 salary is).
DeleteBy my estimation, based on total guarantees at signing and what has been paid out to date, around $3M-$4M of Ford's 2021 salary isn't guaranteed for injury. That is just an estimation though as I don't know how much of his salary the past two years was fully guaranteed - I am just assuming it was 100%.
DeleteBased on that, by keeping him on the roster that is the additional money they will need to pay him to do so (unless he decides to be very kind and forego the unguaranteed salary for some reason if and when they restructure his deal). The trade off from paying him that extra money is the ability to extend the cap hit over three years instead of two.
As far as I see it, this is not the optimal solution for the 49ers. In the end, they can use other contracts to free up that space in 2022. All they are doing is reducing their overall cap space they have available by $3-$4M over the next three years by paying money to player they don't need to.
However, if I am mistaken and all of his 2021 salary is guaranteed for injury, not just some of it, that is a different story. Then there would be no difference in their overall spend, and they would gain the ability to spread it over 3 years not just 2.
Thanks Scooter. I've been looking at the D-line, wondering what the 9ers will do for 2021 season. Your write up is a pretty complete picture of options.
ReplyDeleteI do have a couple of players I've been evaluating, that I'd like your opinion on.
1) Penn St. Soph. EDGE, Jayson Oweh: Very raw, will take a year or more to develop, but could be used as a situational pass rusher. He has been listed as a mid 3Rd. round draft pick, but appears to be moving up draft boards. He may have the most upside of any player in the 2021 draft.
2) N.C. St. DT DI ALIM MCNEIL. Also a raw talent that will take time to develop, used mostly as a zero technique NT, but has explosive first step to shoot the gap and sack the QB. Likely a late 3Rd, or early 4th Rd. draft pick
Thanks GEEP. I prefer Roche and Jones as fits in a wide-9 over Oweh, but there are quite a few good options likely to be available on day 2. The 0 sacks in college for Oweh is a big concern for his NFL prospects imo, but he definitely has the physical tools.
DeleteHaven't looked at McNeil.
Sorry, re Oweh, that should have read 0 sacks in college last season.
DeletePrior to the Shanny/Lynch regime, this fan has not forgotten how bad the defense was. Continuing to use resources to bolster this unit will go a long ways towards building a championship team.
ReplyDeleteI don't agree with everything that, Shanny/Lynch have done but you can't argue with the results. Their philosophical belief behind the defenses success is proven, and people like, Grant that think a "shut down" cb is more important than a deep defensive line aren't getting to the Super Bowl last I checked. Besides, when is the last time you or I saw a true shut down cb?
DeleteFor me I use to think a DL and a CB go hand in hand. Due to the rule changes I don't think that applies much anymore, a pass rush is more important then coverage. That doesnt mean that the CB position isn't important just not as much. I still draft a CB early as we need one. Bosa not only is he a physical freak I believe he has the type of mindset that overcomes most obstacles in life, I expect him to start day one next season better then he was before. Sign Hyder add a FA, DL will be fine. Under the current rules I don't think you will see a shut down corner. In the NFC West I believe the best defense will determine standings at years end. Controlling the line of scrimmage is like controlling the center board of a chess match he who does it best usually wins.
DeleteTo be fair, it is not just Grant. The Patriots have built their defense from back to front for years. I think Miami is also built that way.
DeleteThat said, in general a pass rush appears to be more reliable over time. Corners often have up and down years but good Dlines are more consistent which should mean the defense stays better over the long haul.
All good points, Under. I would add that when you pair that pass rush working in tandem with mostly zone coverage, you don't need to put as much capital into your corners. The old adage, big guys beat up little guys pretty much sums it up.
DeleteI think defenses can be successful either building front to back or back to front. But Shoup makes a good point about reliability year to year with a good DL vs a good secondary.
DeleteRegardless, having one of those units as great doesn't mean you can ignore the other. Still needs to be at least average.
Wow, another gem, Scooter. But speaking to you all and the other regulars who haven't commented yet today, you blow me away. Wish we could have guys back like Coffee, Houston and Jack.
ReplyDeleteBecause every draft is a crapshoot, I think a team out of the top 10 has to start with the proven talent in free agency. Then in round 1 trade back except when it comes to QB, even if they lose their left tackle, and load up in the strong position groups. You have to play the odds. I sell insurance, so you can see where I'm coming from
Thanks George. In a vacuum, having more darts to throw should indeed improve your chances of hitting. However, unlike in darts, every time you move back to pick up more darts you also shrink the dart board as players get chosen before you pick. And history shows that higher picks have a greater chance of success and greater chance of being elite.
DeleteEnd of the day you just have to pick the right players often enough.
When you do that, you're also banking on the GM's in front of you picking the wrong players.
DeleteExactly, razor. I know many longitudinal analyses have been done that generally show there is more value in later draft picks than the traditional draft trade value chart indicates, but even so the chances of a player in the top 10 being successful are greater than later 1st round, 1st round has a higher chance than 2nd round, and so on. If you have a player you really think fits what you do and can do so at a high level, passing on him to get more picks just seems like an admission you don't believe in your ability to scout players.
DeleteAs an aside, with NFL rumours being that the Patriots see JG as their "Plan A" for the QB position - what do people think about JG for Stephon Gilmore and maybe a draft pick or two?
ReplyDeleteThat would free up heaps of cap space and they'd add an excellent CB on a cheap 1-year deal (for the calibre of player he is). If the 49ers aren't really sold on JG this type of deal would make a tone of sense to me. In fact even a straight up swap would seem like a reasonable option to me.
That's a good segue for tomorrow's post.
DeleteExcellent! Let's hold off discussing here then.
DeleteAccording to Albert Breer the 49ers cap space is $28 million assuming a $183 salary cap. He states that he had "one team's cap chief run the numbers" for him for all NFL teams. The 49ers have the 9th highest salary cap space. However, the number over at OTC is still around $23 million.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.si.com/nfl/2021/03/08/mmqb-salary-cap-squeeze-free-agency-veteran-trade-candidates
Good news! Thanks, Cubus.
DeleteIt just gets better for the 49ers! Hope this is accurate.
Delete