By Scooter_McG
While the headlines have centred around will they or won't they re-sign Trent Williams (breaking: Williams has confirmed he will be coming back to the 49ers via instagram), the 49ers were still relatively active on the first day of FA legal tampering. They locked up Kyle Juszczyk just before the legal tampering period begun, while also re-signing Jason Verrett. But the most interesting addition may have been signing Samson Ebukam, who played OLB the past four seasons for the Rams after being drafted in the 4th round in 2017.
Don't let the position fool you - while he was listed as an OLB for the Rams, their 3-4 defense had him playing as an edge defender. Ebukam has some experience playing in coverage, as most 3-4 OLBs will be asked to do on occasion, but his main role with the Rams was as a pass rusher.
At around 6'2", 245lbs, Ebukam isn't physically imposing for an edge player, but he possesses elite speed and explosiveness with his testing numbers in drills placing him in the 89th percentile or above for OLBs.
At the Rams Ebukam was used more as a rotational player. His snap count peaked in 2018 at just under 70%, but fell to just over 50% in 2019 and to around 35% in 2020. Part of the reason for the decline in his snap count in 2020 was a combination of Leonard Floyd rarely leaving the field and their new DC Brandon Staley using extra DBs more commonly than Wade Phillips.
Despite his snaps diminishing, his sack numbers increased from 3.0 in 2018 to 4.5 in 2019, and he repeated with 4.5 sacks in 2020. Of note, Ebukam's pressure rate has also been increasing - according to NextGen stats he had a pressure rate of 12.7% (good for ranking 15th in the NFL last season), while PFF charted him with a pressure rate of 14.7% (5th among OLBs). Regardless of the service, this represented a career high for Ebukam, and would have topped the 49ers in 2020.
With the 49ers, unless the 49ers change their defense under Ryans it seems likely Ebukam will also be used as a rotational piece, with a role similar to that of Dee Ford in 2019 (when healthy). Like Ford, he's a speed rusher that was an OLB in a 3-4 before joining the 49ers, but with the 49ers he will primarily be asked to play as a DE in passing situations.
I have seen some suggestions that he could also play SAM LB in 4-3 fronts, but I think this is unlikely as the 49ers have typically preferred to use traditional LBs in the SAM role.
Overall, Ebukam is a young, ascending, highly athletic speed rusher that has proven ability to disrupt the QB in a situational role, while also proving to be durable in his time with the Rams. His signing will help ease the expected loss/ ongoing absense of Ford, and partially fills the 49ers need for edge rushers.
Trent Williams deal is 6 years, $138M. Monster deal, but elite LTs don't come cheap.
ReplyDeleteGiven it is 6 years in length I expect it will include both signing bonus in 2021 and option bonus in 2022, to push cap hits into future years. Similar to what they did with Armstead, though for Armstead his 6th year was just a voidable year.
$55M guaranteed, $30M signing bonus.
DeleteAnd you can add Alex Mack to that too. Big day for the 49ers OL!
DeleteScooter
Delete$23 Mil P/Y is what I thought it may take to outbid KC and the Colts. Expensive, but worth it!
Signing O-Center Alex Mack allows Daniel Brunskill to
move back to guard. Add a day 2 lineman for backup and the O-Line S/B good to go.
The positions left for the 9ers to address, are backup QB, a slot CB to replace K'Waun Williams and a #3 WR to replace Kendrick Bourne. That should leaving the 9ers in a position to draft the Best player(s) available.....
THE 9ERS 2021 SEASON IS NOW LOOKING GOOD!
Scooter,
ReplyDeleteWhile I don't mind the signing, a special teamer that can play an olb in base is a solid add for that price.
That said, I don't see him as the pass rusher that others have suggested he might be. His pressure numbers are good but I rarely actually saw him beat his man quickly, even his sacks were hustle/coverage sacks to me.
I would be more enthused if I saw him move the qb off his spot within 4 seconds but I just didn't see that, so I think a lot of what he had were gifts from Donald, who flushed the qb towards him.
I know I am complained too much, it is a solid signing pass rusher or not. I just think this should not stop them from going after a solid edge.
I actually agree re Ebukam as a pass rusher. My article obviously focuses on the positive, but he's not Dee Ford. The expectation is that he can provide a solid contribution like he did for the Rams. The hope is that he still has upside and that Kocurek helps unlock his physical potential.
DeleteRe playing OLB in base... I just don't see it happening.
And they definitely still need to add more edge guys. At least 2 imo.
DeleteYes, good deal with Mack and Williams coming aboard. If Ebukam can hold his own and stay healthy then its a good signing. I am not expecting lightning from the guy just good solid football.
ReplyDeleteI think we will get that + from him.
Deletere: Williams. I am not even going to begin to understand how a "cap-strapped" team could do such a massive deal in a year of a reduced cap. But way to go Niners! mvp: Paraag Marathe?
ReplyDeleteSomewhere Seb is muttering about Paraag being a cancer.
DeleteOne may buy the big house if they can afford to pay the mortgage. Niners started the off-season with $145M of contract payments due in 2022. That amount will likely grow closer to $190M-$200M by the time they will have signed the rookie class and extended Warner in July. So next season will also be tight. The can will probably be continued to be kicked down the road for the next few seasons, but I don't see the Niners get into the Saints' or Rams' situation.
DeleteThe key is how they write the contracts. They make liberal use of Roster bonus' which allow them flexibility to restructure if need be. I haven't seen the details of the contracts they signed so far but I would guess they probably used that tactic again so they can restructure next year if the cap doesn't go up drastically.
DeleteWay to break it down, Scooter. Samson could break out in this defense.
ReplyDeleteWelcome back, Trent and welcome aboard, Alex!
Nice move by the 9ers locking up Trent Williams. With Ebukam, I like his availability, and if he can provide 4-5 sacks on a rotational basis, that is a good signing.
ReplyDeleteRegarding Alex Mack, I'm concerned. Not sure if he has much left and will probably decline, so IOL is still a need.
Here are a few other moves we need to make before the draft:
1) Lock up Jordan Willis for a couple of years. Dude was productive.....played 9 games and had 2.5 sacks and 1 Fumble recovery
2) Bring back K'waun Williams as Slot CB for the veteran presence.
Then with the draft, use 9 picks to get some thing like this:
QB - 1, CB - 2, DL - 1, Edge - 1, IOL - 1, WR - 2, RB - 1
Get decent DLs & RBs as Undrafted Rookie FAs like Kevin Givens/Jeff Wilson, who can be groomed.
Alex Mack isn't the same player, but he doesn't have to be. The residual from his leadership and acumen will raise the level of play inside, thereby compensating for some of what he's losing physically. Meanwhile they have the ultimate mentor for their center of the future.
DeleteLeadership is nothing without Accountability. My concern is that he won't be able to lead if his play dips.
DeleteWould love to be wrong about this. Let's see.
His play dipped last year, but not to lack of accountability levels. He gave up 1 sack in 972 snaps, and ended up grading out at 65.9 per PFF. Brunskill gave up 4 sacks with a 61.7 grade to give context as to how much improvement we can expect to see.
DeleteMack is a great signing. Perfect fit for this offense. He's old, but still good.
DeleteMack has declined with age but he is still a very good OC. He only gave up one sack last season and will be the stabilizing factor the OL didn't have last season.
DeleteRolling with the Silverback--Big Mack Attack ....
ReplyDeleteThree out of four now reeled in. K'waun's still available. Just do it ShanaLynchathe!
Solid O line for 2021. Mack may not be able to reach block as he was able to do a decade ago but he is still very good at pas pro and as good as before in calling protections and diagnosing the defensive formations. Jimmy G can now step into the pocket without constant fear of bull rushes and stunts getting to him in obvious passing situations.
I had suggested a 5 year-$120M but they added a year to average out the $30M signing bonus and lower the cap hit. Basically it's a 3 year contract after which the Niners can protect themselves.
If now isn't the time to develop a LT and Center with two future HOF'ers to learn from, then I don't know when it ever will be.
DeleteI'd think it's too early for drafting a starting tackle unless one is convinced that Shanalynch will move on from the Not-so-Big-Mac.
DeleteBut I can see an athletic center drafted in the mid-rounds who can play guard if he doesn't pan out at center...
Jimmy Morrissey outta Pittsburgh might be that athletic center you are talking about.
DeleteMorrissey is the guy I would look at. Probably not super athletic, but athletic enough.
DeleteI like Morrissey, I still prefer Meyers for our offense, but whoever it is SF needs to draft Mack's replacement. Ideally one that could moonlight at guard for a year or 2.
DeleteDated today, PFF's 100 best available FAs with their contract predictions:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.pff.com/news/nfl-100-best-available-nfl-free-agents-remaining-2021-nfl-free-agency
Their prediction for K'Waun Williams: Two years, $8 million ($4M APY): $4 million total guaranteed, $3 million fully guaranteed at signing.
DeleteSounds affordable for the Niners.
Hi Mood. Yes, it would seem so. Btw would appreciate your take on Haasan Reddick if you have one. Would be nice to have more insurance on the edge.
ReplyDeleteI'd bring back Hyder before signing Reddick.
DeleteGeorge,
DeleteI agree with Scooter. While Ebukam is a cheaper version of Reddick, Hyder whose value is depressed in this FA market overflowing with pass rushers, will be a better fit for the Niners with his versatility to play both interior and edge and is already a Kocurek favorite from his Lions days.
I think Hyder will (rightfully) wait to see what offers he gets and then check with the Niners before signing with someone else.
Great write-up Scooter.
ReplyDeleteWith the Oline now looking much better than last year, I hope that the 49ers will turn their attention to QB.
I believe that Mac Jones is a QB who could be in the 49ers drafting range.
MJ is not the sexy QB pick, but all he does is become one of the best QBs in college football with a highly rated passer percentage, great TD-Int ratio along with a Championship trophy.
Unless the 49ers have a deal to send a truck load of picks to Saleh for the next 3+ years for their #2 pick, I really like MJ.
Yes, a QB would make sense. But the team still needs CBs and edge, as well as WR depth. Will be interested to see who else they add at those positions in FA.
DeleteYup, you’re right. Those are important positions to secure.
DeleteRe QB, where would you like to see the 49ers upgrade this position?
How do you mean? Upgrade the starter, or upgrade the backup? Definitely need to add a quality backup.
DeleteMy current thinking is they are setting themselves up to make a run at a QB in round 1. As to whether they would then keep JG or not I am not sure. That may not be an immediate upgrade at starter. But realistically the only way you are upgrading from JG at this point is trading for Watson, which I don't think they will do.
Longer term yes, I definitely want the team to add a QB they think can be the QBOTF.
They've shown by signing, Williams that they're not afraid to invest significantly at three positions. QB, LT and Edge. Would it surprise me if, Shanny traded for, Watson? Not really. I don't believe he will turn over the reins to a rookie quarterback. I still believe first year DC+Stud pass rusher coming off significant injury=DE in the 1st round.
DeleteI don't think he would just hand the reins to a rookie QB, they would need to earn the job. But I think if they do draft a guy in round 1 there is a chance they let JG go to have a cheaper vet compete with the rookie.
DeleteColin Cowherd made the point today that with so many backloaded contracts at the 49ers now, getting cheaper at QB may become more of a priority. We'll see.
But yes, edge is definitely a possibility. I would say that right now, QB and edge are the two most likely round 1 options. What they do in FA from here will provide greater clarity on the draft.
I think it would be extremely difficult for a rookie to earn the job because I think he would need to do it by a significant margin in order for, Shanny to do something he's shown to be philosophically opposed to doing.
DeleteI agree with the idea that Edge could be the pick in round one. Which one do you guys like best? I know it's risky due to the history but Jaelan Phillips looks like he could be the best of the group. Would you gamble on him or go with Paye, Rousseau or somebody else?
DeleteIts definitely Phillips for mine. Yes it is a risk, but he is the only guy I think has top 15 pass rush talent.
DeletePhillips is the most polished Pass Rusher, and the player that is most likely to have an immediate impact as a rookie, but he's risky with his concussion history. He and Azeez are the only edge rushers that I would take in the 1st round.
DeleteGoodwin released...
ReplyDeleteA pity they had to give back a 7th just to release a player they didn't want.
DeleteI suppose its the cost of doing business.
DeleteI doubt the Niners go after Watson now, he is accused of something indecent. Guilty or not I doubt the Niners touch him now.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.nfl.com/news/texans-deshaun-watson-accused-of-indecent-conduct-in-civil-lawsuit-qb-denies-wro
ReplyDeleteIan Rapoport
@RapSheet
The #49ers are giving C Alex Mack $5.5M, source said.
Ian Rapoport
@RapSheet
#Falcons free agent center Alex Mack is expected to sign with the #49ers, source said, as the Cal product lands back in the Bay Area. Mack has been with coach Kyle Shanahan in Cleveland and Atlanta... and now SF.
4:37 PM · Mar 17, 2021
Quoting from MM today on what's next for SF in Free Agency:
ReplyDeleteAfter the initial wave of signings, there figures to still be an abundance of proven veteran players to be available, most likely on one-year contracts.
At this stage, the 49ers have only two starting positions in doubt. Oh, they could add other players in the draft or free agency, but they have starting-caliber players at every spot on offense and defense.
The only positions with a large degree of uncertainty are at defensive tackle in base situations and at nickel back.
Nose tackle D.J. Jones and nickel back K’Waun Williams are among the 49ers’ top-remaining free agents still available with the new league year scheduled to launch Wednesday at 1 p.m.
Another need is at slot receiver, where Richie James and, potentially, Travis Benjamin and Jalen Hurd could be options. The lagging market for receivers could work to the 49ers’ advantage as they look to add a pass-catcher for the offense.
https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/49ers/49ers-biggest-nfl-free-agency-needs-trent-williams-returning
And just as I posted that, it's been announced that DJ Jones is returning:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.49erswebzone.com/articles/145411-49ers-re-signing-jones-one-year-deal/
Nice one! I was hoping they would bring him back but didn't think they would. He's actually a low key pretty important signing imo.
DeleteBefore he was injured year before last, he was on his way to being a force. So glad he's back.
DeleteI've believed all along that the Niners would be able to re-sign the players they really wanted but I didn't expect it would go as well as it has. This is really an impressive job the team has done to bring back so many of their own and adding Ebukam and Mack on top of it. Nickel CB is the biggest hole remaining and that may be addressed in the draft. Other than that we are able to draft BPA with the FA haul they have put together.
DeleteAgreed Notanexpert. And there are still a lot of good slot CBs on the FA market, as well as DEs. I think they will still add a slot CB (and probably another boundary CB) as well as a DE before the draft.
DeleteThat would be great Scooter McG I just wasn't sure if they have the room to add anymore. If they can bring back Williams/other slot and another vet boundary CB that would be the culmination of an incredible FA period.
DeleteAt some stage I expect they will free up more cap space with restructures/ roster moves. Don't need to atm though.
Deletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UcoQaUwKqJA
ReplyDeleteMontana to Rice. Jones to Aiyuk.
DeleteSolly Thomas, wow. $5M from the Raiders for a guy coming back from an ACL, that was just a decent rotational guy. Being a former 3rd overall pick has its perks.
ReplyDeleteGood for Solly, but man, way more than I thought he would get.
I was way off on this one. I thought he'd get maybe half that based on his lack of production and the injury. Most of what the Raiders do doesn't make a lot of sense though.
DeleteRadiers have one of the best D line coaches in Rod Marinelli.
DeleteA little known fact is that Lynch was getting ready to shop Thomas around when Kocurek arrived. It was Kocurek who wanted Lynch to keep Thomas. So good D line coaches seem to perceive value in Thomas as an IOL, perhaps even as a starter. Successful recoveries from ACL tears have become quite routine now as long as the rehab goes on schedule and the routine is followed strictly.
Ian Rapoport
ReplyDelete@RapSheet
· 1h
The #49ers are re-signing DT D.J. Jones, source said, and he gets a 1-year deal. An underrated starter for them.
Well for those still clinging to the hope the Niners would trade the farm for Watson, it was slim to none and slim has just about left the building.
ReplyDeleteHas Saleh poached any of the 49ers?
ReplyDeleteNiners possibly interested in Minshew.
ReplyDeleteAt the moment, WR and DB need some shoring up.
ReplyDeleteEdge also.
DeleteYearly contract #s on Williams have been outlined by Field Yates. Looks like a cap hit of around $8M in 2021. Maybe a little over, depending on how much of his per game roster bonus is considered LTBE. Cap hit stays pretty low (for an elite LT) next year at around $14M. Then his cap hit will jump to around $26M the next couple of years, $29M in year 5 and then $33M in the 6th year. Very unlikely he sees those last two years.
ReplyDeleteIf you take out the last two years salaries/ bonuses, the 49ers will be paying Williams around $82M over four years. Approximately $20.5M per annum. That is pretty much what their reported original offer was. The last two years his salary jumps and are there as window dressing to make the deal look like the biggest deal for an OT.
DeleteCorrect analysis. This is essentially a 4-year deal. I had earlier thought on that basis and envisioned a 5-year 120M deal. They added another year to reduce the cap hit via the signing bonus and also tacked on $60K to edge past Bakhtiari's AAV.
Delete