Sure didn't sound like it last we heard from, Lynch. You gotta assume this guy isn't gonna be passing his physical anytime soon, let alone by April Fools day. Lombardi laid it out succinctly and to sum it up, Ford will more than likely be on the team this year after again restructuring his contract to pay him his injury guaranteed salary in the form of a signing bonus, with the idea of stretching out the cap pain over a few years. If they cut him post June 1, 2022, according to, Lombardi they'll save $6 million this year, and incur one last hit in 2023 before clearing him off the books.
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Yeah, Lombardi's signing bonus approach appears to be the most likely path to getting out of this bad situation. Unlikely Ford plays again, but his retirement is even less likely because of the injury guarantee.
ReplyDeleteHowever, they only open u[p $3.7M in 2021 cap if they cut him after June 1 of this year. As Razor wrote, they open up $6M only if they keep him on the roster at vet min of $1M in 2021 and then cut him post-June 1, 2022. In any case, the Ford will be in the mechanic's shop for awhile.
Big lesson for FO. It's fine to gamble on players with an extensive injury history who are playing on (or close to) vet minimum contracts. But not on large contracts, especially on one with an earlier back injury.
Similar to the, Foster snafu, it feels like they've learned their lesson here as well. I doubt we see them make that mistake twice.
DeleteThe Ford saga is definitely a cautionary tale of buyer beware. A shame - he's good when healthy. But the warning signs were all there.
ReplyDeleteWhile the tale didn't end happy, it did have a Super Bowl chapter.
DeleteThat's true, and he played his part in that. But as Mood said, gambling on players with extensive injury histories is fine, but when you start gambling with those guys on large contracts and give them significant injury guarantees you are playing with fire.
DeleteDee Ford' 2018 season was as good as a LB can have. I could certainly see the great interest the 49ers had in him. With the kind of numbers that Ford had in 2018, I wonder how many other teams showed interest and were willing to take a risk in signing him.
DeleteBack injuries have a lingering effect (for life) and are very unpredictable.
Now, do the 49ers begin to take a more sobering view of players with existing back injuries. If so, where do players like Jaylen Hurd' status fall?
Razor: Thanks for taking this on and creating a new blog (especially one with no politics, as it caused me to reduce my commenting to the old Inside 49ers site).
ReplyDeleteWhile I read The Athletic article about Ford, and possibly converting his injury guarantee into a signing bonus given we won't be able to cut him with big cap savings this year since he remains injured, we can guarantee that any production we will see out of him in 2021 will be a bonus as he is most likely out. As I start getting more into the draft, hopefully I'll get to identifying some replacements (defensive backfield, speed end, a potential backup quarterback, and interior offensive line being the Niners' biggest needs). Among potential first round speed rushers, the buzz is with Azeez Ojulari and Jaelen Phillips, though neither I think grades out to the 12th pick.
Good to hear from you, Pot. You're welcome. I would like to point out to you, and everyone else in here; if you have a topic or a write up you'd like to post, email me and I will make you one of the four allowed to do so.
DeleteThere is a fan article on NN today about what to do with the defensive line. It discusses Ford as well as guys like Blair, Hyder and Jones. Imo it's a good read:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.ninersnation.com/2021/2/16/22285400/san-francisco-49ers-armchair-g-m-what-to-do-with-our-defensive-line
Also, there's a comment to the article by a guy named Rockets27. (Our Rocket?) He makes an interesting comment about this year's cap making it likely there'll be good vets available below otherwise market prices. I know that's crickets, but he puts some numbers on it:
"The real issue for players is that 32 teams have $23mm less to spend, which is around $736mm not available league wide. That is a lot of money players won't be getting, leading to a lot less for lower tier players. The current league available cap space is roughly $500 million for all teams, but if the pandemic didn't happen, that would be closer to $1.3 billion.
Think of all the expensive players that still have to be signed,
Dak Prescott $35 million
Trent William's $18-20 million
Chris Godwin, Kenny Golladay, Allen Robinson $17-20 million each
Justin Simmons, Anthony Harris, Lavonte David, Shaquil Barrett, Leonard Williams, Hunter Henry, Brandon Scherff, Joe Thuney, etc.
The available cap room will dry up real quick after the top free agents start signing. This is definitely the time to free up as much cap space as possible."
Leads me to believe there will be an inordinate amount of 1 year deals.
DeleteRockets27 is most likely correct, and that is something notanexpert also has outlined previously. I think there will still be money available for that first and maybe even 2nd wave of FA, but after that things get dicey.
DeleteI think what we will see is a lot of contracts that are heavily backloaded.
But there likely will be some pretty good players available on the relative cheap, which could be good news for the 49ers.
To razors point, the 1 year deals will most likely be a thing, but not until towards the back end of FA imo. 1 year deals mean no backloading, unless you include voidable years. So teams won't want to give out decent money on those 1 year deals. It will be more a case of after guys realise they aren't getting the money they want, they accept a low value 1 year deal so they can try in FA again next year. Some bargains should be able to be had in that market.
Yep, when the dust settles we'll attack the f/a bargain bin for just those guys. The 49ers should be a coveted destination for those players looking to rebuild their stock.
Delete"...there will be an inordinate amount of 1 year deals.".
DeleteThat's been my thinking all along, especially with ring-hunting vets
Btw, Razor, what is your new avatar? Is it an arrow or something found on a human male and remotely resembling an arrow when it's elongated?
ReplyDeleteHa!
DeleteRaz,
ReplyDeleteFirst and foremost, thanks for providing a more secure and consistent site for this community of 49ers fans.
One question; will you provide a "reply" under every post? I noticed a reply after several posts, is this by design?
Thanks Raz
You're welcome, AES. I just put this together with spit and baling wire. Nothing is by design, lol. Definitely a work in progress. I will take all the help, and suggestions I can get.
DeleteThanks Razor.
DeleteJack Hammer's QB rankings, out today:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.si.com/nfl/49ers/news/49ers-scouting-and-the-best-rookie-quarterback-prospect-is
Also, Razer, does the blog program allow you to activate the links?
DeleteI'm assuming Jack's ranking are QBs after Lawrence.
DeleteI agree with him re Jones. The more I watch of him, the more I think he is being underrated relative to the big 4. And I get where he is coming from re Wilson... though I would still rank him either 2nd or 3rd after Lawrence.
I have a hard time putting Trask that high though. He isn't a bad prospect imo, but there are a few things about his game that worry me, with regards to his ceiling. Arm strength is one, but he also seemed to have a tendency to throw a few "put it up and hope" balls a game, where the receivers were well covered and he was just relying on ball placement and his receiver to make a play for him, and he seemed to struggle a bit movement-wise whenever he needed to reset his feet/ flip his hips a different direction quickly.
Scooter, did you have a chance to listen to the video exchange between Jack and Grant? If you didn't or for those who didn't, Grant discusses his picks alongside Jack. For Grant, the number 1 QB (outside Lawrence) is Mond. Grant does love going against the grain.
DeleteNo, I've not had a chance to watch/ listen to it. I did know Grant likes Mond though just from his previous tweets. My understanding from other tweets is he thinks Jones is basically just JG, Fields is just another OSU QB doomed to fail, Lance is a RB, and he really likes Trask. Didn't catch his tweets re Wilson though.
DeleteI know a lot of PD blog alumni don't like Grant's opinions, but I find him entertaining. But I don't put too much stock in his analysis of prospective draft picks - at least no more or less than anyone else's opinion that isn't a draft analyst.
George, I will look into making it so you can activate links.
DeleteGeorge, I believe I was able to reset so you can now post url links.
DeleteI would still investigate Fitzpatrick..........I think ultimately the 49ers roll w Jimmy G, and I am fine w it, but personally, I would take Fitz for 1, draft a QB in top 2 rounds and roll the extra 10-12 mil into getting some starting DB's as I think, unfortunately, K'waun goes w Saleh....... Verrett would have to be an incentive-based signing to make sense, and not sure he will give the home-town favor to do that.
ReplyDeleteDave, I'd love to see, Shanny's facial expressions after Fitzmagic throws his 6th int in a game.
DeleteBut Fitz can push the ball down the field...... is JimmyG Alex Smith II and we just not know it?
DeleteSo this is the new place to talk football. 49ers football!
ReplyDeleteThis be the place, welcome.
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