Taken By Force
Many reasons why the 49ers are on the low end of forcing turnovers, but what is the number one reason in your opinion?
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The postseason is a year away. Win or lose the only thing they're playing for today is pride. Another opportunity to advertise your wo... -
The San Francisco 49ers are 20-6 when the Three Amigos are on the field together. If they stay healthy you can forget about a "rebuil... -
Nope, it's not a misprint. After trading up to the #3 pick from #12, the 49ers have put themselves in a position to select their franch...
I recently saw an AI generated 49ers 2026 win record that projected the same number 10.5.
ReplyDeleteI don't agree with this AI projected record.
If the 49ers were able to win 13 games last year with Bosa and Warner missing most of the season, along with Purdy, Kittle, TW missing games, I fail to see the generated logic with a 10.5 win record with all of them back in 2026. Not sure how AI reached this conclusion.
Razor, maybe you can break this down for me.
Perhaps more difficult schedule along with significant travel.🤷
DeleteRegression to mean.
DeleteSomething that doesn't get factored in much by 49ers fans is that last season the team won a well above average number of close score games. And it largely came about through well above average rates in RZ scores, FG %, STs field position on both offense and defense (i.e., opponents were well below average in these when playing the 49ers).
These aren't typically stable metrics year to year.
I think week 1 was the only time they had their Varsity team. The only Metric that matters this year is health. Stay healthy and the league is your oyster. If they can't, don't expect a repeat performance from last year.
DeleteIf they stay relatively healthy they should be good.
DeleteTo be clear - I am just pointing out why odds makers might be predicting less wins than last year. I think the roster is nicely improved and with better health luck is a legitimate title chance.
Last season's 13 wins is quite amazing when considering the injuries and only 1 TD pass to a WR. If those situations are improved this season, I see 10 wins as the low end and 13-14 wins as a strong possibility - baring major injuries.
ReplyDeleteThat's a possibility. Though how many games did they lose last year because guys were out?
DeleteOTOH, if they don't hit almost every FG and have opponents miss FGs at a staggering rate, or have a dip in RZ efficiency while opponents get a bump, could easily go the other way.
What is SOS?
ReplyDeleteStrength of schedule.
DeleteThe Niners are projected to have one of the easiest schedules in the league, as per ninernation.com article, below:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.ninersnation.com/san-francisco-49ers-schedule/158944/the-49ers-are-projected-to-have-one-of-the-easiest-schedules-in-the-nfl
Matt Maiocco on the 49ers offensive line:
ReplyDeleteStarters: LT Trent Williams, LG Carver Willis, C Jake Brendel, RG Dominick Puni, RT Colton McKivitz
“The fact that the 49ers did not take an offensive lineman until the fourth round suggests they have high hopes for the player they ended up selecting. That’s why Willis is projected as the starter at left guard. But if Willis is not ready for that role, the 49ers’ options are Jones, Toth and Colby. The 49ers appear set for the next two seasons at left tackle, as Williams and Lowe, the top backup, are under contract through 2027. Cruz has all the tools needed for a chance to develop into a starter a couple years down the road.”
Backups: Brett Toth, Vederian Lowe, Robert Jones, Connor Colby, Enrique Cruz
Competing: Austen Pleasants, Nick Zakelj, Brandon Parker, Zachary Thomas, Drake Nugent, Isaac Alarcon
The 2025 49ers went from the league's #1 easiest projected SOS in the preseason to the #5 toughest actual SOS by the end of 2025. Facing four games against 12+ win divisional rivals changed the math real fast. 📈🧱
ReplyDeleteProjected SOS isn't of much use, as we saw in 2025. The projection was .415, easiest in NFL. But it wound up as .497, close to neutral.
DeleteSOS only matters somewhat. Everyone largely knows their opponents at seasons end. What they don't know is the travel schedule involved or the rest differential in that given week.
ReplyDeleteIf we get Seattle right after traveling to Australia to play the rams it could easily be an 0-2 start.
That said it could be a good thing as 2 of most likely projected loses are out of the way. Come back and lose some team like the raiders due travel and bodyclock and the road gets much tougher.
The travel to Australia sucks, but they do get the advantage of a long week to the next game in week 2.
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