San Francisco talked a big game but played small Saturday night against the Seahawks. The offensive game plan forced upon them without Trent Williams and Ricky Pearsall was glaring. Keep Kittle and CMC into block which reduced their normal 5 eligible receivers to 3. Still didn't afford Purdy the protection they hoped it would, and it allowed Seattle's defense to defend a much smaller area. It was a vote of no confidence by Shanahan and his offensive staff in their OT's.
Defensively, the 49ers lacked 2nd and 3rd level tacklers, missing 18 as a team, 12 of which were committed by LB's and S's. Conversely, Seattle's defense missed 3 tackles. Should this continue in Philadelphia, it will get out of hand quickly and I'd anticipate a blowout victory for the Eagles.
49ers final strength of schedule was .498. Playoff teams with a worse SOS this year:
Chicago, Philadelphia, Green Bay, New England, Denver, Jacksonville, Buffalo, LA Chargers. Seattle also was at .498.
Brock Purdy finishes the regular season No. 2 in QBR at 73.1, behind Drake Maye's 77.2. Purdy was 8th in passer rating at 100.5.
ReplyDeleteJalen Hurts was 20th at 55.9. Hurts was 12th at 98.5.
Tatum Bethune (groin) is OUT for the rest of the season, per Kyle Shanahan.
ReplyDeleteKendricks was playing better anyway. But it does just further deplete the LB depth.
DeleteNot to demeam Purdy's outstanding achievement. But, this only validates my opinion that high stats don't always win championships. Great accomplishments often work good for more contract money. Again, this no reflection on Purdy's play.
ReplyDeleteThe real work going forward falls on Lynch's effort to draft the right personell to plug some obvious cracks on both sides of the line. I believe that that 49ers will be a playoff team again next season. A very fruitful draft and target FAs could carry the 49ers to a SB.
Can't recall who said it, but the big thing this team is currently missing is some superstars/ elite playmakers. Especially on defense with Bosa and Warner out.
DeleteThe 2024 and 2025 drafts look like they brought in some solid players - guys that can be decent starters or role players. But atm none of those guys look like they are going to become elite.
And that's a huge problem. I've said for the last 2 years between the 2024 and 2026 drafts they need to find at least 2-3 elite players plus 8-10 solid starters/ role players to replace the guys they'll be losing and form the new core around Purdy. Atm I'd say they are on track for the solid starters/ role players, but not close on the elite players.
Collins made some plays this year and Stout had his best game of the year. I'd say those 2 are a little more than just solid with a chance to be difference makers.
DeleteI disagree, but may be more a case of interpretation of what I said. When I say elite, I mean guys that truly make everyone around them better. The Bosa's and Warner's of the game.
DeleteBased on what I have seen they both look like guys that if surrounded by a couple of elite players could be really good, but likely aren't the guys that really make everyone around them better.
Same goes for Williams, who I would compare to Arik Armstead.
Of course only rookies and won't know for sure for a couple of years, but that's my early take.
Elite players to me are future HOF'ers. Guys who have consistently proven year after year that they're among the best at their position. Difference makers are the Greenlaw's and Arik Armstead's to me.
DeleteThey need elite players.
DeleteThis also confirms to me it's an interpretation thing. Because to me Greenlaw and Armstead are more solid starters than elite players. To me solid starters are guys that would start on most teams, even good teams, and be good contributors. But they aren't guys that elevated everyone around them, and thereby can look average on bad teams. Guys like Demo.
DeleteMaybe I should have added an in between category called "good starters". That's where I think Stout and Williams will fall. I put Puni and Pearsall in that category too. Maybe Collins and West can get there too, as well as Green and Mustapha. I'm hoping guys like Martin and Sigle also can get there. But at the moment I think they are leaning more to role players category - which to me is a guy that can be a starter if surrounded by good players, but is a guy that is often talked about as a player that can be upgraded on.
I agree they need a future elite player to play with and ultimately replace Bosa on level 1 and another to play with and replace Warner on level 2. The problem is there isn't an elite tree growing in anybody's backyard, and 99% of the time you need to be drafting in the top 10.
DeleteOf all the 49ers elite players they drafted in recent years, only Bosa was a first rounder.
DeleteLuck needs to be involved, no doubt about it. But if there is one criticism of their recent drafts I have, it is that they've been a little too "safe" with their early round picks, going for guys that with high floors but not necessarily the highest of ceilings. Collins is really the only one I'd say bucked this trend.
They had to seal off the edge opposite Bosa and Williams did that to a high degree at Georgia. I fully understood the pick.
DeleteSo do I. But you and I both really loved Nolen. He was the lower floor but higher ceiling guy available, and when healthy this year looked like a future elite player.
DeleteAs you pointed out, elite guys are hard to find. Good/ solid starters not as hard to find.
They've got the darts. Here's to a couple bullseyes!🎯
DeleteExactly!
DeleteI see this differently than you guys. I don't think it's the elite guys they need. I really feel like this team is lacking in just quality starters. I think most of the defensive players are backups on most teams, all the lbs, both safeties and at least 2 of the dlinemen.
DeleteOne thing I've come to understand is how bad good players can look when they don't have any elite players around them, and how good decent players can look when they do.
DeleteWhile true the inverse is as well. From what I have seen a roster filled with B to B+ players will do about as well as a roster with a couple A+ players and multiple c to c- players.
DeleteThe problem this team has, is the D is primarily made up of below average players coupled with a few A+ players
Have you got some examples? Not disagreeing, just can't think of any off the top of my head. I guess you could argue some of the better D's in the NFL atm are more good players across the board without any real elite players, but not many. Tbh, it's actually easier to build and maintain a team around a few elite guys than a full suite of good players.
DeleteIn terms of good players looking bad/ mediocre without elite guys vs looking good with elite guys, we don't have to look far - the difference between 2017/ 2018 49ers D to 2019 D is a great example.
A key problem the 49ers are having right now is their two elite guys on D got injured early in the year.
New England for the majority of their superbowls. This year Minnesota, and you could argue to some extent Seattle. Seattle is a bit of a stretch but I dont think they have a top 5 player at any one position but they are very good across the board making them greater than the sum of their parts.
DeleteMy argument is if you have a lot of guys that are borderline top 10 some will be elevated to look better than they are. This is the same as if you have 1 or 2 superstars like SF has with Warner and Bosa but you are less susseptable to an injury or 2 ruining your season.
A few of these (elite) players might already be on the current roster. Mykel Williams, Al Collins, Ricky Pearsall, Upton Stout, could be another season away from making this elite list. I think that Bethune could become a member of that group as well. But, finding an Edge, WR, OL, S, and LB thru the draft and FA would go a long way in opening a bigger window for a serious SB run.
ReplyDeleteSee my reply to razor above.
DeleteImo, you usually can tell pretty quickly if a guy is going to be elite. They usually show the ability to be dominant and make big plays pretty early on. Bosa, Warner, Kittle, Purdy, Buckner, etc all had that as rookies.
Stout, Collins and Williams all showed some flashes this year, but more in a solid starter kind of way than dominating kind of way. More like Arik Armstead's and Jimmie Ward's type of rookie season.
And if I'm being honest, I'm being generous putting Collins in the Armstead/ Ward category. He has some flashy plays, but by and large has been more negative than positive in his play. Has a lot of improvement to go.
DeleteCollins' punchout on the goal line is on the same level as Greenlaw's stop against Seattle.
DeleteYeah, he's had some cool moments. But overall he's not been good.
DeleteBethune is a liability in coverage. I think they'll draft another LB late day 2/early day 3 in a class where it's deeper than deep.
ReplyDeleteSounds like Pearsall won't be available, and Cowing might get an opportunity. We're going to find out how much this team has left and how badly they want to continue to play football together, because the Eagles game plan will be to pound the football, play action deep!
ReplyDeleteBethune may be the best tackler on the team. Fred Warner will reclaim his spot currently manned by Bethune. So, Tatum will not be tasked with guarding TEs. Saleh will find the right position for him. The 49ers D are lacking solid tacklers, Bethune will be on the field next year.
ReplyDeleteKendricks and Lenoir look like their 2 best tacklers.
ReplyDeleteKendricks has not played enough to make an impactful contribution, IMHO.
ReplyDeleteWell Kendricks technique as a tackler looks better to me as he takes precise angles to the ball carrier and sifts through traffic much better.
ReplyDeleteGood news is they'll get another chance to swing for an elite player in the draft.
ReplyDeleteRazor,
ReplyDeleteI appreciate you highlighting college players entering the draft that may be viable future players and stars for the 49ers. I've already spent some time watching their highlight films and preparing me for April's draft.
👍
DeleteNiners are now 4-13 when Williams is out of the lineup since he arrived in 2020. They averaged 19.8 points in those games. They're 61-32 and average 26.2 points per game when he plays. 👀
ReplyDeleteGlad he isn't retiring anytime soon!!
Not retiring. Good, but will his play drop off and will he be healthy when they need him?
DeleteHe still might be a top 5 LT when he's 40 and as far as health, it's an issue in football. Might be less of an issue for this team if they fired their strength and conditioning staff and upgraded.
DeleteThe 49ers have been there and done that before when they fired Ray Wright their conditioning coach back in 2019. Injuries come in varieties of ways. Bosa came into this season saying that he was in his best condition then got injured on one play as did Warner. Injuries like this can't be blamed on strength and conditioning coaching staff. I believe that with the great Trent Williams his age could be a factor in injuries. But, if TW can play at 80% next season he would still be among the NFL's best.
ReplyDeleteI'm with Old Coach on this. No matter what happens Sunday afternoon, and I'm not very optimistic after the Seahawks debacle, this has been a compelling season of 49ers' football and I'm grateful for that.
ReplyDeleteAll I wanted was a playoff spot. Now let the chips fall where they may.
DeleteAbsolutely!
ReplyDeleteTrent Williams finished the regular season as the 3rd highest-graded tackle and Colton McKivitz ended up being the 8th highest-graded tackle in the NFL.
ReplyDeleteJake Brendel graded out as the 10th best center in the league for the 2025 regular season
ReplyDelete• 70.4 overall grade (career high)
• 74.1 run-blocking grade (career high)
• 59.0 pass-blocking grade
Jake didn’t allow a sack on 544 pass-blocking opportunities. His biggest improvement (imo) was the drop in penalties committed this season (4) to last season (10).
There’s something to say about continuity on the O line. They’ve all gotten better because they work in unison and practice makes perfect. I think the Niners have the right approach here. Unless you can find that rare elite player, it doesn’t make sense to draft high on the Oline.
DeleteIt's amazing how many elite players don't always come from the 1st rd. George Kittle was chosen in the 5th rd and Tom Brady was picked in the 6th rd. Obviously, there are many more. There are some diamonds in the 2-3rd days of the draft waiting to become elite. The 49ers regional scouts just have to find them.
ReplyDeleteJust musing a little here. Personally, I believe that the 49ers may not have much of a choice but re-up Jennings next season. Can Ricky Pearsall be counted on to play a full season is a question I ask myself. Cowing and Watkins have yet to prove themselves. There's no doubt that the 49ers will be drafting and possibly signing a FA wr next Spring. But if they can't keep JJ they will be missing a big piece to their offense.
ReplyDeleteA couple of thoughts on this (sorry for the long post).
Delete1. I expect JJ to get $15M+ a year in FA, maybe as much as $20M, based on contracts for similar player/ production profiles.
2. I am a bit over paying decent but not good or elite players big money - you don't get the required value from these contracts. For mine, JJ is just decent, and ideally would be WR3.
3. While Bourne is not as good, I think he's good enough to be WR4 and will likely be able to get him quite cheap. He and DRob can be the vet WR3/4/5 roles.
4. Pearsall is a starting calibre WR when healthy. I get the concerns with his injury history, but I also keep reminding myself that people had the same things to say about Armstead and Ward after their first couple of years, after which they became some of the 49ers most durable and reliable players. I'm still hopeful Pearsall will put the injuries behind him.
5. Imo, they need a better WR1/2 than JJ. So if they are going to spend for a WR to be a WR1/2, they should be looking at someone of higher quality. However, not many guys of higher quality currently expected to be available in FA so may need to trade for someone if they go this route.
6. Instead, I fully expect them to use a high pick on a WR to compete for a starting job and add a lower cost vet that can start until they are ready.
Good points, Scooter. On the other hand, I'm hard pressed to know which other 49ers WR would have played with 5 broken ribs, shoulder and ankle injury. And with all this, I believe he only missed the game against the Rams. It's simple for me, 49ers should sign him. JJ has more than proved his value to the team.
DeleteBut at what price?
DeleteOverpaying for average talent is the best way to make your team bad overall.
There's average and there's reliable. The cost will be hammered out between both parties. My stance is that in JJ, the 49ers have a consistent and proven player that has the courage to play through pain to help his team. That's worth something to me.
DeleteThat's a bit of a dodge saying the two parties will work out the price.
DeleteIf they can get him for under $15M a year I would consider it, but over that I'm out. Apparently he was holding out during camp because he wanted over $20M a year. Playing hurt doesn't make him worth that.
Playing hurt and still being productive means a lot to me. We'll have to wait to see how much that matters to the 49ers.
DeleteI hear what you're saying. For a team that has as many injuries as the 49ers always seem to have, being available is a big thing.
DeleteBut I just can't justify the kind of money he's reportedly seeking for the level of production he brings. To me, that's the sort of thing bad and/ or desperate teams do.
I feel that in JJ's case, value and availability can be just as important as production. Jennings was the best WR in 2024 after Aiyuk went down. And he did enough this season to warrant a nice chunk of money to stay on board for the reasons I mentioned in my first writing. Pearsall has to show that he can stay healthy and the young WRs have not established themselves. The 49ers can use the Aiyuk kick back money to negotiate a reasonable deal.
DeleteNot commenting on JJ, but it seems to me that the pool of acceptable WRs is significantly diminished by KS' insistence that WRs be good blockers. Of course it is a nice quality to have, but I'm not sure you would label the top WRs in the league as "good blockers". It took quite a while for Aiyuk to get out of KS's doghouse and now after all that development he's out (I'm not sorry, just a loss of time and development). There are other teams that prioritize good WR blocking (ie. Rams and we did get DRob), so maybe that's a good place to look for 3,4,5 and maybe even 2 when and if they become available.
DeleteNiners are signing veteran LB Kyzir White for the playoffs, per Schultz Report.
ReplyDeleteDoes he have a brother? Any cousins? We may need them all.
DeleteOwners favorite pastime (at least it feels that way sometimes) must be firing coaches. I would love to know the justification, other than stupidity, for firing John Harbaugh.
ReplyDeleteHarbaugh fired. Say good bye to Saleh
ReplyDeleteGus Bradley is waiting in the wings unless Saleh takes GB with him to be his Defensive Coordinator. If that happens. I'm putting my chips down for Raheem Morris.
ReplyDeleteI'm assuming the Falcons, Cardinals and Ravens are looking to hire an offensive minded HC, given all three just fired defensive minded HCs.
ReplyDeleteGood point.
ReplyDeleteThe referee for this game is Alan Eck and the Eagles are 8-1 when he's the ref, including the '23 NFC Championship game. The Niners are 3-6 when he's the ref.
ReplyDeleteWith multiple members of the staff being interviewed for higher ranking positions elsewhere (Josh Williams, RJ Gillen and Tariq Ahmad), could Lynch have another 3rd round comp pick (or two) come April?
ReplyDeleteNo team does comp picks better. Cousins is going to hit the market. They could trade Jones and sign Cousins.
DeleteMac,
DeleteI think they only get comp picks if A The coach signed away is a minority. B the coach signed away is a coordinator. C if the coach signed away has been with the team for at least 2 seasons. I don't think any of the 49ers coaches meet those criteria
Coach, basically you get comp picks if a team hires someone from your staff (that isn't the GM or HC) that is a minority and been with the team two years, and is hired to be either the GM or HC by another team.
DeleteThere O, D and ST coordinators are not eligible and other than Singletary I have never heard of a position coach who jumped directly to HC. So to quote the soup Nazi "no comp picks for you"
DeleteCoach, not accurate. Those guys Mac mentioned are execs, not coaches. Tariq Ahmed and Josh Williams have been requested to interview for GM spots and both would get the 49ers comp picks if hired.
DeleteMy bad. I thought they were position coaches mea culpa, mea culpa, mea maxima culpa
DeleteRazor, OC and Scooter,
DeleteSounds like Josh Williams and Tarik Ahmed (more specifically Josh Williams) have been with the franchise for quite some time and have worked their way up the ranks.
Would be a tough loss, but 2 comp picks might ease the pain… as long as Lynch doesn’t use either of the 3rd round picks on RBs. Not exactly batting 1.000 in that round for that position.
ESPN projecting Niners will take Washington wr Denzel Boston in 1st round. This would be a terrific pick if 49ers are in a position to make it.
ReplyDeleteI also like Boston. But between now and draft day there will be many projections.
ReplyDeleteMike Renner of CBS Sports has the 49ers taking Penn St., OLman Olaivavega Loane with their 1st pick. I like Loane as well. We'll have to see how it shakes out in April.
Every year they try and force the Niners to draft an OL in the 1st round. Never happens and probably won't. It'll be the best X WR left on the board or the best DL left on the board.
ReplyDeleteI sure wouldn't mind the 49ers picking WR Concepcion. But is he a bonified 1st rd receiver?
DeleteCompletely agree razor. Those will be the two most glaring holes on thr team this offseason.
DeleteI think Concepcion is a late 1st rounder and a great fit, but he'd be redundant.
DeleteIf Pearsall can stay on the field, and If Watkins can be that productive WR then I can see the redundancy. But, neither of those two have yet to prove that. Chris Bell is a guy I like, but only on day two.
DeleteThe 49ers have signed LB Milo Eifler.
ReplyDelete* Promoted LB Eric Kendricks to the active roster
ReplyDelete* Placed LB Tatum Bethune (groin) on IR
* Signed LB Kyzir White to the practice squad
* Opened practice window for WR Jacob Cowing
* Signed LB Milo Eifler to a Reserve/Future contract
Emmanuel McNeil-Warren (Toledo)
ReplyDelete- #3 safety/#42 overall
- 6033/209
- 11 career forced fumbles
- Enforcer over the MOF, no fear of contact
- Syncs break with the QB’s release & takes good angles to the ball
- Punishing tackler with elite stopping power
- Length to shed blocks, reach into passing lanes, & press TEs
Texas A&M OG Chase Bisontis (6-5, 315) is uber prepared for an NFL Outside Zone scheme after 36 starts (12 at RT, 23 LG, 1 RG) & playing at elite Don Bosco Prep HS
ReplyDelete🪵Mean streak seeks violence
🪵Seals run lanes, angles well, mirrors
🪵Great explosive hips & flexible base
Thanks for the heads-up on these players. I'll be checking them out.
ReplyDeleteRazor,
ReplyDeleteDo you have a projection on which rd these players can potentially be drafted?
Late 2nd, early 3rd.
DeleteThanks.
DeleteMike McDonald fired by the Dolphins. Is he the 49ers new co offensive coordinator? Getting the old band back together.
ReplyDeleteRazor,
ReplyDeleteI saw they're highlight videos and they both look like ball'rs. Warren looks like a Day One starter. He has range, length, instincts, sure tackler, and is fearless. Good looking out, Razor.