Seattle's defense is arguably the best in the league; however, they rank 18th in DVOA against tight ends this season. They give up the 5th-most yards to tight ends of all teams in the league. George Kittle on if he will play in this game, "absolutely". The 49ers lead the NFL converting 51% of 3rd downs. Seahawks have the best 3rd down defense, allowing conversions on 32.4% of 3rd downs.
Seahawks* – 28 giveaways (31st) 20 of those 28 giveaways were committed by Darnold, whose been 39% on 3rd downs. A turnover in this game is huge. Make Darnold be consistent throwing the ball against that 3 deep zone. I doubt they'll have Lenoir follow JSN unless strategic circumstances warrant such a move. Force field goals.
49ers defense ranks:
#24 in overall EPA/play however:
Seahawks* – 28 giveaways (31st) 20 of those 28 giveaways were committed by Darnold, whose been 39% on 3rd downs. A turnover in this game is huge. Make Darnold be consistent throwing the ball against that 3 deep zone. I doubt they'll have Lenoir follow JSN unless strategic circumstances warrant such a move. Force field goals. Sky Moore returned one against the Seahawks with the Chiefs. Both teams rank 1 and 2 in Special teams.
No rain is expected during the 49ers — Seahawks game tonight 
Field looks to be in great shape.
Field looks to be in great shape.Niners have elevated T Brandon Parker and LB Eric Kendricks from the practice squad for today’s game.
“When you think about a business trip, you want to dress in a black suit and I feel like this is the type of game it is.” — Ricky Pearsall
#15 in the red zone
#15 in Opp 3rd-down conversion%
The 49ers defense has to limit the explosives, something they were unable to do against the Bears, make 5 stops, and they should win this game, 24-20! Go Niners!
*UPDATE: Both Trent Williams and Ricky Pearsall are out for this game.👀
Niners in actives:
T Trent Williams (hamstring)
WR Ricky Pearsall (knee)
DT Kevin Givens
RB Isaac Guerendo
DE Robert Beal Jr.
LB Curtis Robinson
CB Chase Lucas
Pearsall's absence means Jordan Watkins is active.
I think this will be a scrappy "fight for every yard" type of game.
ReplyDeleteGood that there is no rain.... favors Offense and ours is better.
First priority, no catastrophic injuries and get healthy into the playoffs.
Go Niners 31-24!
Niners QBs have a 147.2 passer rating this season when targeting George Kittle.
DeletePearsall being out is a bit of a blow.
ReplyDeleteDo they counter with Tonges, along with Robinson and Bourne to fill the void, or do they emphasize the run game more? Watson breakout game? Might need some special teams field position to compensate.
DeleteI could see them using a lot of heavy sets in this one.
DeleteI think that if we have no turnovers, we win. I believe we are the better team and should win without major mistakes.
ReplyDeleteWill Pearsall ever be counted on to play a full season? His absence is going to make WR a priority in the off-season. Watkins gets a chance to show out tonight.
ReplyDeleteKey tonight is simple for me: Stop Seattle's run game and score 24+ points.
Who the heck is Garret Wallow?
ReplyDeleteI don’t know but his career is now in jeopardy
DeleteOh no. Winters being injured has Wallow at LB
DeleteDidn't even know he was a LB
DeleteMan this defense is bad bad.
ReplyDeleteZero playmakers
DeleteKendricks was vital to that 4 yard loss by Sam O. Saw it early, raced up to fill the hole and force the RB outside to Sam O.
ReplyDeleteLike Butter.
ReplyDeleteMacdonald has Shanny and Purdy number….
ReplyDeleteA.Collins injured?
ReplyDeleteWe’re In it to win win it.
ReplyDeleteLucky to be only down one score at the half.
ReplyDeleteThe drive after the half is pivotal. We need to convert 3rd downs.
The only positive I can take from that half is that they are only down 7. Very lucky to still be in it. Thoroughly outplayed.
ReplyDeleteJust an absolute disaster from this D. Can't give up the 3rd and 17... well, ever, but definitely not there.
ReplyDeleteI think the bigger problem is Seattle D. Our D hasn’t given up many points but we just can’t move the ball against theirs. I thought sure as heck our offense was better than their Defense but so far not tonight.
DeleteSure, the D made some plays to limit the damage, plus have gotten a fair bit of luck through Seattle shooting themselves in the foot. And yes, the offense has been thoroughly outplayed.
DeleteBut this was always going to be the problem - can't rely on the offense to dominate every week. If the 49ers are going to go all the way there are going to be games where the D has to help them out by getting them some extra possessions.
Time for the 49ers to brush off they're suitcases because they are hitting the road in the playoffs.
ReplyDeleteToo soon to quit but not looking good. We need a long drive and score on this drive or it might be over.
DeleteNot quitting. Just going off of what I'm seeing on the field. The end result is looking pretty predictable. Ouch! That Purdy Int., may have locked it up for Seattle.
DeleteBend but don’t break by this defense. Would love to see Shanny get this offense in the end zone.
ReplyDeleteNiners are 1-38 when trailing by 7 in the 4th quarter. In my opinion, If they can score right here they have a chance at changing that
Well there’s the turnover that might do us in. Their defense is just phenomenal tonight.
ReplyDeleteI don't think I've ever watched a 13-3 game where one team absolutely demolished the other... until now.
ReplyDeleteI don’t see how anyone is going to beat Seattle if their Defense plays like they did tonight.
ReplyDeleteOnly a team that can match them defensively.
DeleteIf you would have told me, our defense will hold them 13 points, I would already be celebrating the victory.
ReplyDeleteOffense got cooked, no question. But we know the offense can play better. The D however was extremely fortunate to finish with only 13 points conceded. Play like that next week and the 49ers could well be 1 and done.
DeleteI think the score speaks for itself.
DeleteIf you're happy with that defensive display you're a better man than me.
DeleteI'm not discounting the from still making a SB run. It will be tough playing on the road, but not impossible to make some noise. Heck, the 49ers may meet Seattle again before they turn off the lights on this season.
ReplyDeleteAgree. Things could still turn out okay.
DeleteThings already turned out okay. Just the fact that they won 12 games during what was supposed to be a "retool" year along with all of the injuries. They have kept me entertained every Sunday. I have been waiting for reality to set in and it finally happened
DeleteSame^
Deletethe *49ers* from making...
ReplyDeleteShanahan's game plan was terrible. In 95% of their games KS will scheme up a brilliant plan but there are a few DCs who consistently own him. Cleve, Balt, Sea and maybe Hous
ReplyDeleteAdd Spags? Seattle d was inspired but we were coming back. No Ricky hurt a lot.
DeleteI know Old Coach had said he was waiting for something like this to happen. Still, it was disappointing when it did. Really thought the Niner offense would do and be better against Seattle. Really looked awful. We're in the playoffs nonetheless and let's hope better games lie directly ahead. Go Niners!
DeleteOuch! From the AP -- "Instead of getting a bye, home-field advantage and the chance to play the Super Bowl on their home field without taking another trip, the 49ers (12-5) will have to head on the road next week in the wild-card round after falling flat in their biggest game of the season...It added up to one of the worst offensive performances for San Francisco in nine seasons under coach Kyle Shanahan, with the three points being the fewest the team scored since a 23-3 loss to Carolina in his debut in 2017 and the 173 yards the fewest ever in a regular-season game."
ReplyDeleteLikely going to Philly.
ReplyDeleteIf Trent and Pearsall are hindered even if they play we are looking at a similar outing. Defensively it will get get ugly against them... Philly might throw 9 passes.
Very disappointed in last night's game. But something I've heard since I was a young kid is; "the playoffs are a new season." While the sting of the 49ers butt-kicking is still fresh this morning. I remind myself that not too long ago I was saying that all the 49ers needed to do was get in the playoffs. Well, they have. Hopefully, last night's ugly loss left a bad taste for team and they come out blazing in the playoffs.
ReplyDeleteOne request as the 49ers enter the playoffs. Please shed the Atlanta Falcons color jerseys.
DeleteI'm in the same boat as Old Coach - this was a game I was expecting to happen sooner or later. I'm just enjoying that the team has been significantly better than expected this season.
DeleteWe know the offense can play a lot better than that, but I think we should also accept that against good defenses it will be a struggle to put up a lot of points. The defense was also bad once again, especially against the run, but made enough plays to force the Seahawks into mistakes that took points off the board and kept the score manageable to give them a chance.
But I also think the 49ers are a long shot at the Super Bowl.
The 49ers are currently 1 win of 6 games against teams with a top 10 defense in points allowed, and that win was a very lucky one against the Rams. I think the 49ers best chance of advancing to week 2 of the playoffs is to face the Bears, not the Eagles, who are currently a top 3 defense in points allowed.
Guy Haberman is always a good listen and had some salient points again recapping this one. But one thing that stood out to me - not only is this the best division in the NFL, it's the best coached. Shanahan, McVay and McDaniel are all top 5-10 coaches.
ReplyDeleteGoing to be perennial dog fights so long as these 3 stick around.
He also made the point that the Bears will be a better matchup than the Eagles, for the same reason I outlined (but he said it way better 🤣).
John Chapman is in agreement with a FA target Old Coach outlined - WR Alec Pierce. Makes sense - a big vertical threat could definitely help, whether it come via FA or the draft.
ReplyDeleteScooter / OldCoach
ReplyDeleteRE WR Alec Pierce: I'll be surprised if the Colts let him leave, but if he does become a free agent, Spotrac lists his Market Value at ~$16 to $17 Mil AAV. While I agree he'd be a great fit as a 9er, not sure the 9ers would be willing to pay that much? Your opinion(s)?
I agree that it's unlikely the 49ers will sign him. I don't actually think his skill set is one Shanahan values as highly as that. He's a vertical threat, but not much more than that. While Shsnahan likes to have a vertical threat, a pure vertical guy is usually only WR4 or WR5 in his offense. He places more value on guys that are versatile and can get open on horizontal routes.
DeleteBad news - Yesterday was the lowest point for this offense and for KS. I don't understand not using timeouts at the end of the half. Personnel use was abysmal.
ReplyDeleteGood news - We are still in the playoffs and since yesterday was the lowest point, I'm sure in the playoffs Offense will play better. Another plus is that we know what the deficiencies are.
We have drafted way too many WR picks and spent way too many resources to WR. Scouting WRs needs to be upgraded next year. Don't draft WRs if you won't let rookies play. Instead trade for proven WRs.
Mug,
DeleteI don't see them trading for a A/B level WR but they could sign one in free agency. I think it all comes down to how much of Aiyuk's guarantee
It was too late this season OldCoach.
DeleteWe had Cowing who couldn't see the field last season and we still drafted Watkins....who....wait for it....couldn't see the field again.
I don't think it is a good idea to draft one more WR now? Someone needs to tell KS either play the rookies or don't draft WRs that you won't use. Use trades instead on proven WRs who can play in this "system".
I've been projecting Denzel Boston, WR Washington, as my first Rd
ReplyDeletedraft pick. After catching 6 passes for 126 yards, including a 78-yard TD in the Huskies' 38-10 win over Boise State, I suspect that he'll be drafted before the 9ers are on the clock to pick.
Looks like the 49ers will be packing up for the city of Brotherly love. Purdy will get his revenge.
ReplyDeleteI actually prefer the matchup vs the Bears- reason being, Hurts holds the ball and they haven't run the ball well ........ giving the Bears another shot w their run game and Allen making adjustments would concern me. Pearsall needs to have a decent game- last night, I wish the 49ers challenged the Safeties over the top w Cowings/Moore to create some space underneath
ReplyDeleteWell, if the 49ers were going to go far in the playoffs they were always going to have to beat some good defenses. Of all the tough defenses to face, the Eagles are the nicest "soft" landing as their offense hasn't been good this year.
Delete