The 49ers defense posted their highest EPA of the season vs the Panthers +10.89. Good confidence builder heading into a very tough matchup with the Browns. They'll face the rookie Sanders at quarterback who will look to go down field early and often. Brock will have to play a much cleaner game to give them a chance on a short week. Matchup of the year: Trent Williams vs. Myles Garrett. 🍿
How could Bryce Young be a number 1 pick when Brock Purdy was selected one pick "earlier"?
ReplyDeleteI see what you did there :)
DeleteBrock was late with his throws, sign of rust. That game was the first hint of a team that could go a long way in the playoffs. See what happens next week. Nothing has come easy this year, that's good for mental makeup. Defense wins championships.
ReplyDeleteI'm more concerned with the way the balls are constantly coming out high or floating on him.
DeleteI think it's a mechanics issue from not following through and putting pressure on his front foot. It's clearly correctible but I hope he gets it right or this off-season will be unbearable.
Purdy is still a work in progress, imho.
ReplyDeletePositives:
Plays with confidence.
Knows Shanahan's system.
Quickly shakes off mistakes.
Owns the huddle.
Throws catchable passes.
Great attitude with coaches and players.
Concerns:
Forces passes into tight or double coverage.
Overconfident in his arm strength.
Not scanning the field for secondary receivers.
Locks onto a receiver too long.
When considering his missed playing time due to past and current injuries it seems to make sense that he is still a work in progress.
Highest-Graded Tackles, 2025, PFF:
ReplyDelete1. Penei Sewell, 95.9
2. Trent Williams, 87.9 (!)
3. Garrett Bolles, 87.1
4. Andrew Thomas, 84.8
5. Colton McKivitz, 83.2 (!)
Locking down McKivitz this offseason was huge.
DeleteYep and what's refreshing is he obviously wanted to be here unlike Aiyuk.
DeleteYeah true.
DeleteI think getting that deal done means OL is not their #1 priority this offseason. Still want to upgrade/ add depth, but DL and WR I think are now going to be bigger priorities.
Razor / Scooter
DeleteRE McKivitz: I've been a critic, but agree his pass protection has improved and extension justified.
Scooter: agree, OL is not the 9ers #1 priority. The question then is DT #1 or is WR #1 priority?
Personally I'd prioritise the DL. But Shanahan... he does like adding WRs.
DeleteIf they trade Mac, wouldn't be surprised if we see a repeat of 2019 and 2020, with DL and WR taken in top 40 picks.
Scooter
DeleteYea, KS does like his WR. 2 top 2026 WR draft prospects are Jordyn Tyson Arizona St. and Carnell Tate Ohio St.. Both are likely gone B4 the 9ers draft. Makai Lemon, USC is likely the best fit and check all the boxes for KS offensive system, but I have reservations about his size and ability to get off the
LOS against physical DB's. College playoffs, Bowl games and
combine will change where some WR get drafted.
I'm with Scooter. I'd go DL over WR but Shanahan? He'll likely go WR. I love drafting DL for this defense. Pressuring with 4 is the key to its success and you've got your primary two DE's coming off serious injury.
DeleteRazor / Scooter
Delete* Assuming the 9er draft Rd #1 at ~pick #20, what D-lineman would you draft Rd #1?
FOR ME:
* DT: A'Mauri Washington DT Oregon. 2nd choice: Kayden McDonald DT Ohio St.
* EDGE: T.J. Parker EDGE Clemson. 2nd choice: L.T. Overton
EDGE Alabama
NOTE: Bain, Faulk and Bailey are gone B4 the 9ers draft
Highest-graded 49ers on defense against the Panthers (PFF):
ReplyDelete• Ji'Ayir Brown: 91.5
• Upton Stout: 82.4
• Malik Mustapha: 69.3
• Jordan Elliott: 66.1
• Kalia Davis: 64.3
• Sam Okuayinonu: 63.9
Razor
DeleteAfter S Ji'Ayir Brown was injured and lost his starting job to Mustapha, under Sorensen, his play has improved with Saleh using him as the nickleback.
One underrated Defender that no one is talking about is Sam Okuayinonu. Sam O always plays with a relentless motor and gave the Sunday night speech which motivated J'Yir brown.
ReplyDeleteSam is a restricted free agent next season.
I hope we do a long term deal similar to McKivitz and lock him up for 2-3 years.
Yeah, agreed Mugeek. He's been a really good depth piece for a couple of years now.
DeleteI think a DE group of Bosa, Mykel, Huff, Sam O, White and a rookie next year would be good, with Mykel and White both able to play DT on passing downs.
At DT, Collins, West, Davis, a rookie and maybe see if they can bring Elliott back, though might be time to let him go. If they let him go, 5th DT can be a cheap vet or rookie. Plan should be for Collins to be the main DT next year anyway, with Davis, West and a reasonably high drafted rookie in a heavy rotation.
Yeah, Kalia Davis is a FA next year. So maybe one among Elliott and Davis is brought back....my preference is Davis who has blossomed this year.
DeleteAnd I hope we get to see Valdez get some snaps this year.
Mugeek9er 👍 I agree with you on Sam Okuayinonu.
DeleteLooked like a high ankle sprain for Sam O.
DeleteStafford's first 61 starts 73 INT's.
ReplyDeleteTom Brady's first 78 starts 78 INT's.
In 46 starts Brock has 35 INT's and 78 TD's.
Improving from '24 when they were at 57%, in the last 3 games the 49ers have scored a TD on 77% of RZ trips.
ReplyDeleteNFL Special Teams EPA:
ReplyDelete1. SEA +44.6
2. SF +33.2
3. MIA +25.7
Boyer is the man!
Skyy Moore is 8th in the NFL in kick return average at 28.3.
DeletePurdy's depth of targets:
ReplyDeleteFirst Half: 7.8 yards
Second Half: 3.4 yards
I wonder if we currently have the WRs needed to play a "push the ball downfield" game. I'm beginning to think we would be better off with game manager Brock Purdy.
ReplyDeletePossibly. I think the problem as much as anything against the Panthers was Brock's ball placement, not necessarily an issue of the receivers not getting open. A bit of a combo of being a little late making the throws and not being that accurate, which allowed DBs to make plays.
DeleteMaybe the toe is bothering him, maybe he's just a bit rusty.
YouTube replays for BP's 3 INT's. (including commercials)
Deletehttps://www.google.com/search?q=SYouTube%3A++Show+replays+of+NFL+49er+QB+Purdy%27s+3+int%27s+week+12+VS+Panthers&sca_esv=454c728905f0b91c&ei=9y0maZ_tGOLv0PEPks_LyQE&ved=0ahUKEwjfxJGXrY6RAxXiNzQIHZLnMhkQ4dUDCBE&uact=5&oq=SYouTube%3A++Show+replays+of+NFL+49er+QB+Purdy%27s+3+int%27s+week+12+VS+Panthers&gs_lp=Egxnd3Mtd2l6LXNlcnAiSlNZb3VUdWJlOiAgU2hvdyByZXBsYXlzIG9mIE5GTCA0OWVyIFFCIFB1cmR5J3MgMyBpbnQncyB3ZWVrIDEyIFZTIFBhbnRoZXJzSNFoUPMJWKJicAJ4AJABAJgBjQKgAdMMqgEFNC42LjK4AQPIAQD4AQGYAgCgAgCYAwCIBgGSBwCgB-0jsgcAuAcAwgcAyAcA&sclient=gws-wiz-serp#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:ecfd9592,vid:COD8SW07jqE,st:0
49ers' offense sitting at #7 DVOA despite facing the 2nd-toughest schedule defensively.
ReplyDeleteInteresting stat I saw on one of the post game shows last night. Since Dec 25, 2023 BP has the 2nd most ints in the NFL. So his propensity for throwing Ints is not a recent problem. That being said I believe that his problems last night and on the dropped Ints the previous game are 100% related to his turf toe. Watch film from last night. He is throwing off of his front foot. QBs/pitchers derive their power from their back foot. I think right now Jones gives them a better chance of making the playoffs. Management won't even think of benching Purdy because of his contract. They worry it will make them look bad for signing him to such a big contract. I believe that with Jones at QB this is a playoff team but with Purdy it is not.
ReplyDeleteWe got a lucky break for once!
ReplyDeletePanthers Moehrig suspended. Looks like JJ will only fined. Smart of JJ to show his justifiable anger after the game.
Should've been a two game suspension, one game per ball.
DeleteHaha!
DeleteHa!
DeleteOldCoach: See my YouTube post above
ReplyDeleteLooking at video of BP's 3 int's.. * The first int, BP throws off his right foot.His throw is late and behind JJ. Horn undercuts JJ for the int. * The 2nd int, BP runs forward, throws off his right foot to Pearsall and under throws Pearsall, allowing allowing Jackson to undercut Pearsall for the int.
The 3rd int, BP steps forward, throws off his right foot to Pearsall who
is running an in route. BP throws late and never sees Horn, who
undercuts the throw and gets his 2nd INT.
Look at the replay video and see if you agree?
GEEP,
DeleteIt looks to me that early in his delivery he has his weight on his back/right foot but I think he is shifting his weight too early in his delivery. I have never been a QB coach but I have been a pitching coach and there are a lot of similarities in both deliveries. If I had a pitcher who was doing the same thing I would have him focus on staying back and stepping into his throws later in his delivery. If Purdy's foot pain isn't the issue then I believe that something is effecting his arm strength. His passes lack zip and are floating.
OldCoach
DeleteI agree, he's not pushing off his back foot. It's all arm strength and why his passes lack zip, are floating and the ball is late getting to his WR's (giving a DB time to undercut his receiver). Not sure why, but it could be his turf toe is still bothering him?
* His first game back, he looked good, but not against Carolina. Lets see how BP does against Cleveland. I Just checked a Cleveland weather forecast for Sun. Nov 30th. Temps will be near freezing, but it won't be snowing. Cleveland area did get snow on Fri 28th, but it should be removed from the playing field by Sun.
If you've ever played in freezing temps, you know anything that
hurts, will get worse. If his toe is still bothering him, it should
become obvious it's affecting his ability to push off his right foot.
NFL Missed Tackle Rates:
ReplyDelete1. LAR 5.7%
2. DET 5.8%
3. NE 6.0%
4. NYG 6.8%
5. SF 7.0%
Sign of a well coached team... but surprised to see Giants on here.
DeleteInterceptions through 40 career starts:
ReplyDeleteBrock Purdy: 34
Matthew Stafford: 47
Bryce Huff owns a 17.7% pass-rush win rate, 11th-highest among ALL defensive ends. Still think the 49ers will move on Shoup? I don't.
ReplyDeletePeople need to stop overreacting to the 3 INTs. Joe Montana threw 3 INTs in the NFCCG in 1982 and 4 INTs vs the Bengals in 1984. Should the 49ers have gotten rid of him?
ReplyDeleteI ignore unserious people.
DeleteWell, a bad game once in a while is one thing, but in 21 games starting Dec 25th 2023, Purdy has the third highest number of interceptions (Gino Smith - 28, Tua - 24 and Purdy, Darnold and Mayfield with 23). Two of the three interceptions were bad in this last game (with the interception thrown to Pearsall particularly bad since Purdy could have run for a fair amount of yardage or dumped it underneath to an open Kittle). We'll see how the Browns game goes, but we may have to get used to the idea that Purdy is a Favre type gunslinger (without the arm).
DeleteI want to see what Purdy does over these next 5 games as the team pushes for a playoff position. Does he improve, stay the same or regress? I gotta believe his rapport with Pearsall will improve the most.
DeleteMy concern is he is not healthy. I believe that a healthy Jones is better than an unhealthy Purdy. Unless the D can hold the Browns to 10 points or under I don't see a win for the 9ers this week. Tenn. should be a win then I see 3 possible losses after that. With a healthy Jones I see 2 or possibly 3 wins and a playoff appearance.
DeleteI'll ride with whoever Shanahan does.
Delete49ers EPA by Unit vs. Panthers:
ReplyDeleteOffense: +5.4
Defense: +10.9
Special teams: -0.8
Complimentary football.
Given the fact that Carolina has an 18pts per game average this season, the 49ers defense did a very good job. But, there is still the issue of not getting to the QB. The most frustrating game was against the Rams. Stafford had a fun day at the park with the amount of time he had in the pocket. Heck, even Tom Brady said that Stafford was "toying with the 49ers defense." So, while the D did well against the Panthers it's still very much a work in progress along the defense.
ReplyDeleteWe just lost another DE in Sam O.
DeletePurdy's Turnover-Worthy (accounts for dropped ints) Play Rate:
ReplyDelete2023: 3.2%
2024: 3.0%
2025: 5.3%
He's got work to do to get back to league average. Let's see what he does.