Trading up doesn't seem to be a good idea. More often than not you're wasting your ammo on a player that probably isn't much better than the one if you had stayed put. I think the adage of the more darts you have the better when it comes to the draft.
Jakob Robinson can beat out Darell Luter Jr.
ReplyDeleteHe's 5'10", runs a 4.4s 40, started for 4 years at BYU and was a captain as a senior. He intercepted 11 passes, is a good tackler, can play in the slot and outside. Yet, he wasn't invited to the Combine. Makes me think, ISN'T THAT STRANGE?
DeleteMore than a few from this draft weren't invited to the combine that raised some eyebrows.
DeleteI would be willing to trade up for a multi-generational LT. Other than that, I would let the draft come to me. This past draft has the chance of comparing itself to the 1981 draft.
ReplyDeleteAll the data I've seen supports trading back for more picks as the optimal path on average, and trading up as the least successful on average. So yeah, in general I am not a huge fan of trading up. Especially big trade ups. Small moves that are pick swaps to get guys you really want I'm good with.
ReplyDeleteOf all the 49ers draft picks this year, I think the one I like the least is Watkins. I'm not convinced he's even going to be better than the UDFA WR they picked up. 4th rounder was waaay higher than I thought he'd go.
ReplyDeleteHeh, just watched Krueg's show with John Chapman - turns out Chapman feels the same as me on Watkins. Though Krueg really likes him.
DeleteWatkins was moving up boards as he had an undercurrent of interest that might have spooked the Niners after how many times they'd already been sniped. We'll have to wait for the book 20 yrs from now to get the tell all. 😂
DeleteYeah, there may well have been other teams sniffing around Watkins.
DeleteMy biggest concern with Watkins came during the day 3 wrap up presser when ShanaLynch started talking about what they like about him, and most of it was based on what they saw at the combine and Senior Bowl, not what he did in college. That screams that it is all projection on their part, which is not a 4th round pick to me.
Over the years it seems to me that most 1st round trade ups are for QBs. QB is the most difficult position to draft for by a large margin. I believe that explains much of the failure rate. I would trade up for O linemen, they have the lowest draft failure rate. I would also trade up for a can't miss edge like N. Bosa.
ReplyDeleteThe Seahawks are converting fifth-round pick Robbie Ouzts from tight end to a 274-pound fullback, part of their vision for a more physical run game under new OC Klint Kubiak. But he’ll have to beat out Brady Russell, who’s making the same switch.
ReplyDeleteAn underrated story over this weekend was Leeds Utd winning the championship and qualifying to the Premier league.
ReplyDeleteLeeds Utd as you all probably know, is owned by 49ers Enterprises. With the jump to the EPL, there will be more money overall for the 49ers enterprises.
Hopefully next FA and UDFA, the Yorks will be able to take more risks and give out heftier contracts, thereby attracting talent.
I'm still not really convinced the reason for the lack of action in FA was due to York not wanting to spend. Pretty sure it was more salary cap related and wanting to reset that, rather than a cash flow issue.
DeleteWell, if that's the case, logically we would have seen more UDFAs signed instead of these vet-min deals. The draft and UDFAs are the way to go for a cap reset.
DeleteFor eg: Seahawks spent $249k on one corner this year. We spent less than that on all 6 UDFAs combined. Last year we spent $280k on just Evan Anderson.
We won't know for sure until next year's Free-agency, if this is a pattern or just a one year strategy. But I feel Jed is putting his foot down here.
I think there is a rule regarding the bottom of the cap. A team has to spend a certain percentage of the cap and can't go under. I believe its called the Bengals rule because Bengal's owner Mike Brown used to spend as little as 60% of the cap just pocketing millions and millions in profits. Does anyone know if this rule actually exists and if it does what is the minimum percentage of the cap a team must spend?
DeleteIt still holds even with the UDFAs Mugeek. Those guaranteed monies to UDFAs count against the cap even after you cut the player in going down to 53.
DeleteMost of those low cost vets will make the team. Most of the UDFAs won't. Cap reset doesn't mean tanking, so filling the roster with UDFAs doesn't make sense.
Wrt cash spending, if he was putting his foot down why agree to pay Kittle? Why agree to pushing to get Purdy contract done this year? They'll still end up having a pretty high cash spend in 2025.
Coach, yes, there is a minimum you have to pay, but I believe it is over a 3 or 5 year period. Something like 80% of cap space over the period has to be spent in cash.
Mugeek, further to my point, 49ers are currently projected to spend the 18th most in the NFL this year in cash at $274.5M - middle of the pack - and that's before paying Purdy. If we assume Purdy gets something like $50M this year in signing bonus + salary, 49ers will jump to 4th highest in cash spend in 2025. Not bad for a team owner that is being accused of being cheap this year.
DeleteThe York is cheap narrative doesn't fly.
DeleteA lot of people took the "tighter financial constraints" comment by Lynch at the combine as meaning cash flow and ran with it. But I've said all along the entirety of what Lynch said made it clear, at least in my eyes, he was referring to cap constraints.
DeleteThe cap commitment they had before shedding contracts and cash due to be paid in 2025 before paying Purdy just confirm it for me.
I'm not exactly saying Jed is cheap....after all every team/owner has to be under the cap. I'm saying this season Jed is not paying out everything that Shanalynch asks for. No high risk high reward deals on aging players etc.
DeleteI mean deals like Hargrave. So Jed is only opening his checkbook for proven entities like Kittle or Purdy. Logically, this is also probably why Shanalynch were asked to let Huf/D-Law walk due to their injury history (high risk).
Scooter - We are the team with the highest dead cap hit in the league. This is a sign of either poor cap mgmt and/or poor player evaluations. So I'm thinking this is a prove-it year for Shanalynch to rebuild prudently. But with Leeds Utd cash flow, next year might be different.
And I think these decisions have waaaay more to do with cap health than a directive from Jed not to spend.
DeleteLynch is pretty open in his comments. If you listen to everything he said, this was always the plan after last year, as they knew they couldn't spend big on FAs again without causing significant issues in the near future.
Either I should do a better job articulating the Leeds Utd connection or you are missing the point. :)
DeleteI'm not saying that there is a "directive from Jed not to spend". Instead I feel there is a "clear directive to not spend on high-risk high-reward contracts in 2025".
The logical externality of this decision is that you cannot compete on high talent FAs and UDFAs for 2025.
Also the reason I think they are going after Purdy's deal this year is that:
a) Purdy has been grossly underpaid to his accomplishments.
b) Next year CJ Stroud will again reset the QB market.
They paid Kittle as he is a culture-setter and he is a cornerstone (proven entity).
Anyway, each to his own opinion.
I get the Leeds Utd connection. I just disagree it has any bearing on the 49ers decisions.
DeleteAs for not spending on high risk, high reward contracts this year, I completely agree. But again, for different reasons than you are outlining.
With a little help from the NFL:
ReplyDelete* The 49ers head into 2025 with the easiest strength of schedule in the NFL
https://www.ninersnation.com/2025/5/5/24424245/49ers-strength-of-schedule-2025
* The NFL will release its schedule on May 14. The San Francisco 49ers hope to win the rest advantage after getting hosed in 2024 when they were at a significant disadvantage after facing four teams coming off a bye week.
Justin Tucker released.
ReplyDeleteWhere there is smoke there usually is fire.
DeleteThey drafted Mike Green.🤦♂️
DeleteNoticed this article by David Bonilla that reports Drake Jackson is fully recovered from his injury. Is this even possible?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.49erswebzone.com/articles/190885-former-49ers-draft-wreak-havoc/
Would love to see Jackson performing up to expectations. He might end up being a case of 'delayed gratification'. Would be nice.
DeleteI gotta see it before I believe it. I still think the most likely outcome is an injury settlement before all said and done.
DeleteFound money if he's able to return and contribute.
Delete"Yall is crazy if yall dont think i'm going to wreak havec on the field this year."
ReplyDeleteDrake Jackson
I'll be looking forward to seeing him do this. The kid showed some skills in his 3sk game against the Steelers (seems like a long time ago). If in fact, he is fully healed I hope that he lives up to his 2nd draft position and for starters just makes the roster. If he can do that, we'll see how it goes from there.
*2nd rd*
ReplyDelete