John Lynch doesn't sound like a GM that plans on trading down. His assessment of depth beyond 178 players was not promising. Has 16 Gold Helmet designees. I think he's going to use his late picks to move up in the 3rd round and possibly a 4th to move up a few spots for a player who might fall. He made a bloodlines comment regarding legacy draftees that sounded promising for those that want Luke McCaffrey. I expect they'll reach for him in Round 4. Other than that, did you guys pick up on anything else?
Haven't seen/ heard it yet. But using some day 3 picks to move up for players makes sense to me.
ReplyDeleteNot to sure if trading down for an early 2nd and mid 3rd rd could be a recipe for success. But I do know that the 49ers could fill some needs by drafting in that range. Such a move could bring in a total of 4 very good players counting their own picks. They could draft OL and CB in 2nd rd. And with two picks in the 3rd could chose among TE, LB, WR or another OL etc. There will be very good talent into the 3rd rd. Another important point for me in trading out of their 1st rd, is that for some reason this regime has not shined with 1st rd draft choices over the years.
ReplyDeleteTbh, they haven't necessarily been much better drafting on day 2 either. They've hit on Warner, Deebo and Banks, but you've also had the likes of Pettis, Hurd, Gray, Sermon, TDP, Beathard, Moore, Witherspoon and Thomas. Jackson, Brown, Latu and Moody I'll reserve judgement on.
ReplyDeleteThere's no doubt a bunch of guys that we would really like the 49ers to draft that are projected to be day 2 guys that will end up being pretty average pros. And some that will be superstars.
End of the day the 49ers need to trust their own valuations of players, and select accordingly. If that means moving up or staying put makes sense, do that. If it means moving down is the best value, try and do that.
What I liked about what Lynch said is that they plan to be flexible. Sounds like a team that is going to let the draft unfold and make moves if/ when the value is there, whether it be up or down.
Something to keep in mind when it comes to the draft - great teams have a bunch of elite players. It's the elite players that make a team great, not the solid players around them.
ReplyDeleteFor the 49ers, they are great because of the likes of Bosa, Williams, Warner, Kittle, Deebo and CMC. Armstead too in seasons gone by, though to a lesser extent, and Aiyuk this past season was nearing that territory. Hopefully Purdy is on the path to being on that list soon. Could argue that Ward, Hufanga and Hargrave belong in that conversation too, though I'd say they are more good than elite.
Reason I say this is that the aim should be to find elite players, not just good, solid players. Yeah yeah, captain obvious, I know.
The good news is that the 49ers have had success finding such players in a multitude of ways, via draft and trade, and in a wide range of rounds in the draft. The same can be said for most teams, in that some of their stars were later round guys. However, what needs to be kept in mind is that those guys that ended up elite but were drafted in later rounds were not really expected to be elite. And that, as you would expect, more elite players are former first round picks than any other round.
Why do I make this long winded post on something that is pretty obvious? Just to highlight that while trading back sounds like a great idea, due to having more bites at the cherry, if the goal is to find elite talents it also makes sense to target guys you have rated as elite talents. Those guys don't have second round/ day 2 grades.
I hear you. But Warner, Deebo and Banks have become major contributors to the 49ers success. The other misses have not been major losses when
ReplyDeleteviewed thru the lenses of their overall success. My point in trading down is that there will be very good talent to pool from with extra picks in the 2nd-3rd rounds. Hit and misses can happen in any rd, but get extra players in those rds gives the team more options to chose from. Also, the team doesn't have to pay guaranteed money already grandfathered in for 1st rd picks. Guaranteed monies would need to be negotiated for players after the 1st rd.
Same can be said with the first round picks though, right? Bosa, Aiyuk and to a lesser extent McGlinchey were all either stars or solid contributors.
DeleteThomas, Kinlaw, Foster and Lance all very disappointing, obviously (though Foster looked like being a star if not for his off field issues, Kinlaw showed glimpses when healthy, and Lance was never really given an opportunity). But the hit rate on 1st rounders under this regime has actually been better than on day 2 picks.
I think there is one scenario where they trade back out of the first. Sitting at 31 they receive an offer from a team needing a QB that knocks there socks off. Other than that I see them drafting BPA at CB, OL, DT or S.
ReplyDeleteCoach,
DeleteThat was the great Bill Walsh drafting philosophy. I believe no one can debate that. Like I said, there are hit and misses in every rd. The draft can be a crap-shoot. No real guarantees. I don't believe that players like Tom Brady, Kittle and Purdy were regarded as elite players leading up to the draft, otherwise their draft status would have definitely had 1st rd implications. One this is guaranteed, we'll all know how it all shakes out by Sunday.
I agree OC. My thoughts right now are that if a player they have a first round grade on falls to within striking distance of moving up using a day 3 pick, they'll make that move. If that doesn't transpire, then they will take BPA at 31 unless they don't have a clear cut BPA and receive an offer for a reasonably small move back to early day 2 that gives them something great in return (either an extra day 2 pick this year or maybe a day 2 pick next year).
DeleteScooter, stockpiling picks for next year wouldn't be a bad idea.
DeleteDefinitely something to consider with a lot of guys contracts coming up next year.
DeleteI came away with a 75% chance of a trade up on day 1 or day 2 and perhaps both.
ReplyDeleteJust saw a tweet outlining that over the past five drafts, the 49ers have deviated the most from consensus draft big boards, followed by Cowboys, Raiders and Rams. The teams that have been deviated the least are Titans, Broncos, Jets and Cardinals.
ReplyDeleteSomething to keep in mind - 49ers develop their own valuations and they can differ greatly from what most people think.
83 of 253 players — 35 with starting grades — that the 49ers initially expected to enter this NFL Draft instead returned to college for the 2024 season. Changing dynamics in CFB, namely NIL, have changed things. Lynch said "later rounds may be lacking" in talent
ReplyDeleteRazor,
ReplyDeleteWhat that tells me is that next years draft will be a senior laden draft. That along with the fact that the 49ers won't be receiving their usual bunch of comp picks next year tells me that the 9ers may trade for as many as 3 future 25 draft picks.
OC, I suspect that senior laden classes will become much more of a thing moving forward. And the NFL will be better off for it.
DeleteCoach,
DeleteYup.
Wow, just found out Fautanu has a bad knee per Tony Pauline.
ReplyDeleteHe played thru the entire 2023 season and was given many awards for his play. Did he receive his knee injury lately?
ReplyDeleteWhen it comes to OL, I believe Graham Barton is a Shanahan fit because of his ability to play a couple of positions. But, I don't see Fautanu slipping much with Pualine' recent report.
Apparantly he got a medical red flag. I think the Dolphins want Barton and if he's gone they'd trade down. For the 49ers I think it comes down to Suamataia (Bloodlines) or Darius Robinson at 31. I'm hearing the Commanders would like to trade up to 31 for Morgan.
DeleteI'm leaning towards Robinson being their main target, if one of the top OT prospects doesn't fall.
DeleteGiven the focus on health this offseason, can't imagine the 49ers pull the trigger on Fautanu
DeleteRazor,
ReplyDeleteI'm seeing many draft sites mocking Morgan to the 49ers at 31. Rob Rang of FOX Sports as of today has Graham Barton going to 49ers at 31. I hope he's right. If both those guys are gone before 31, Rosengarten or Suamataia are solid choices.
I can't help but feel all of those OL options are good not great.
DeleteI'd rather they go for a great player at another position, if one is available.
Also why I think the 49ers will be looking to move up a bit.
Scooter,
ReplyDeleteIf the 49ers move up a bit, who do you think they will target?
If one of the top OTs or DL falls to the mid-20s, I think they'll try and move up. I also suspect the team may have a 1st round grade on Darius Robinson.
DeleteOne surprise name I also wouldn't be surprised the 49ers have a 1st round grade on is Michael Hall. We know how much value they place on pass rush. And Hall was right up there with the best in college in terms of pass rush win rate from the interior last season. Add his youth and insane workout numbers, and I could see the 49ers being much higher on him than consensus.
DeleteDarius and Hall would be good choices. Either one would likely get ample snaps within the 49ers different alignments. The one player that I believe can be a D1S is McKinstry at CB. He would be my choice if the top OL guys are gone.
ReplyDeleteYou're speaking my language there - I really like McKinstry. But I do question whether the 49ers would take him, given their draft history and the work they've put in on day 2 and 3 DBs.
DeleteGood point. But, drafting a day 1 starter might be a high incentive for the FO to break from their day 2-3 CB draft pattern. We'll find how that shakes out in a couple of days.
ReplyDeleteInteresting Shanny hasn't drafted a WR with hand size <9.5" in Rounds 1-3.
ReplyDeleteGood news for Johnny Wilson, Ja'Lynn Polk, Jermaine Burton, Javon Baker, Brendan Rice and Luke McCaffrey as potential day 2 options for the 49ers.
DeleteAlso... my sneaky round 3 target for the 49ers is Johnny Wilson, to be that mismatch receiving TE/ big slot they've been searching for since 2019.
DeleteThe draft trade rumors are running rampant today. One pundit predicted there will be more trades in the first round than ever in the history of the draft. I think there have been more trade rumors involving the 9ers than I can remember. Player trades, trades up and trades down. I cant wait until Thurs. Should be interesting to say the least.
ReplyDeleteA NEW CONTRACT THAT WILL AFFECT AIYUK NEGOTIATIONS!
ReplyDeleteIan Rapoport @RapSheet
The Detroit Lions announced a record-setting extension for wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown on Wednesday, giving him another four years with the club and over $120 million, with $77 million of it guaranteed. The deal makes the 24-year-old the highest-paid receiver in the NFL… and resets the market for everyone else.
St. Brown's signing may be the straw that forces the 9ers into trading Aiyuk. With the Lions WR receiving approx 30 mill per, Aiyuk will be asking for 27.5 or so. Too much for the 9ers. I was going back and forth regarding Aiyuk being traded before but now I am betting that he is gone.
DeleteNFL mock draft: Maiocco's predictions for all 10 49ers' picks
ReplyDeletehttps://sports.yahoo.com/nfl-mock-draft-maioccos-predictions-155940161.html
The Steelers just cleared $7 mill in cap.
ReplyDeleteIf they (hypothetical) make a strong push for Aiyuk, what do you think they will offer?
ReplyDeleteSorry, referring to Steelers. ^
DeletePick 20
DeleteThat sounds about right. With picks 20 and 31 the 49ers could set themselves up for the present and the future. Barton and Darius would be a great 1st rd haul.
DeleteAES
DeletePFF highest graded 2023 WR's:
#1) TYREEK HILL, DOLPHINS: 93.4
#2) BRANDON AIYUK, 49ERS: 91.5
* The 49ers' top WR in 2023, Aiyuk was one of only three wideouts to average more than 3.00 yards per route run in the regular season, with his 3.01 mark ranking third at the position. He finished the year with just two drops from 86 catchable targets.
#3) NICO COLLINS, TEXANS: 91.4
* Collins ranked second in the NFL with an average of 3.11 yards per route run in 2023. It was a career year for the third-year Michigan product, who dropped just four of the 130 catchable passes thrown his way and forced 22 missed tackles on 126 receptions.
#4) AMON-RA ST. BROWN, LIONS: 91.2
* Only one wide receiver in the NFL saw more targets than St. Brown’s 190 in the regular season and playoffs, with the star receiver averaging 12.7 yards per reception despite his average depth of target being just 8.0 yards. That was boosted by his ability to make people miss in space, forcing 21 missed tackles on 141 receptions across 19 games.
If WR Brown (PFF #4) is worth $30 Mil P/Y for 4 years, Aiyuk (PFF #2) will Aiyuk be willing top accept less?
My best guess would be the 9ers would want the Steelers
draft pick #20 plus a 3Rd Rd. draft pick (#84, or #98)?
I doubt the Steelers would be willing to give up that much...So
either Aiyuk accepts less from the 9ers (~$25 - $26 Mil P/Y)
or he plays on his 5th year contract and the 9ers then franchise him in 2025?
GEEP, I can't see Aiyuk accepting less than St Brown. St Brown gets $77M guaranteed, and adding the $3.5M he was already set to make this year, he's now getting $123.5M over the next 5 years, or just under $25M per year. I expect Aiyuk will be asking for $25M per year average (including this year), on a 3 or 4 year extension, and a big chunk of that guaranteed.
DeleteSomething I hadn't realised with Davonta Smith's extension is they were including his 5th year option in it, so its actually a 5 year deal for $97M in total.
Delete
ReplyDeleteEvan Silva
@evansilva
·
1h
Brugler confirmed “several teams” have flagged #LSU WR Brian Thomas for medical concerns.
With the Steelers clearing $7M in cap space, they now have sufficient cap space to fit Aiyuk's $14M in for a bit following a trade (should they wish to do so), until they finalise a new deal with him. Very interesting.
ReplyDelete