Thursday, March 21, 2024

Why Trading Aiyuk Is No Bueno

 


1. Chemistry and trust between Purdy and Aiyuk thats been developed, and the upside from it continuing to grow together.

2. In 2025 Deebo Samuel's dead cap hit of  $15.143 million will make it much easier to to move on should his 2024 season indicate they would need to.

3. Trading Aiyuk is a gamble that might not ultimately prevent them from getting back to a Super Bowl, but I think we can all agree it wouldn't help either.


Is this another Buckner/Armstead conundrum or how does everyone else see it?

34 comments:

  1. I think the 49ers have very little interest in trading Aiyuk, and only way he gets moved is if he forces it. And he's been pretty upfront that if the dollars are right he's happy to sign.

    I don't think Deebo is going anywhere this year either. Extending Aiyuk has a very strong chance of reducing his cap hit this year, so its not an issue of having the cap space for both this year.

    But I doubt in the longer term they keep both, so this feels like Deebo's last contract with the 49ers. By not restructuring Deebo this year it leaves them with a lot of flexibility to trade him next offseason. Which is what I think they will do.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. So do you think they'll look to draft another z wr with yac and gadget capability similar to Deebo or do they go in a different direction by adding speed? Seems the Danny Gray experiment is coming to an end but who knows?

      Delete
    2. If they keep Deebo and Aiyuk, I think they look to add a guy that can help replace Deebo next year. So more a short/ intermediate threat with RAC ability.

      McCaffrey would be an interesting option on day 3.

      Delete
    3. How would you compare him to Trent Taylor? He could be their 5th round gem.

      Delete
    4. I think McCaffrey is a guy that will be a much better pro than college player. Largely because he is still so new to the position.

      He's such a different body type than Taylor I find it hard to compare them. But they are both tough guys that are fearless over the middle of the field.

      Delete
  2. Aiyuk for me. But what do you think Deebo's trade return value could be?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Have no idea but I'd venture to guess a 5th?

      Delete
    2. Yeah, I don't think it would be a huge haul. I think more like a day 2 pick + change, but not a 1.

      Delete
  3. I can't say why but I just have a very strong feeling that the 9ers are going to make a big trade before the draft. Is there anyone else out there who has the same feeling?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I do not unless its an incremental move up requiring a 4th round pick would be my best guess.

      Delete
  4. According to Matt Barrows on KNBR this afternoon, the 49ers are actively shopping B. Aiyuk around the league.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Wow. If true, that really surprises me and goes against everything I had previously heard.

      But... the 49ers stance on Buck was no way they were trading him, right up until they heard what he was asking for. Maybe Aiyuk is refusing to budge on a $$ amount the 49ers just aren't willing to entertain.

      Delete
    2. The only issues I see are money and status. If Aiyuk is over the number the 49ers line in the sand and he wants to be the focal point of an offense, then even though they possess all the leverage, it's best to move on if they can get their asking price. If not, then like Deebo, he'll need to suck it up and either play out his contract betting on himself or sign for what they're willing to pay.

      Delete
    3. BA reminds me of Ricky Watters. Watters felt he was being under used by the 9er, he wanted to be the fulcrum of the O. He also wanted more money than the 9ers were willing to pay. After the 9ers let RW walk they didn't make another SB until 2003. I wonder if they had kept Watters would they have won another SB in the 1990s?

      Delete
    4. If they do trade Aiyuk, AD Mitchell is the guy they should target at 31, imo.

      Delete
    5. Exactly right but Mitchell is probably gonna go in the 20's.

      Delete
    6. Maybe. I don't think a lot of teams will be taking a WR between the top 3 WRs and the 49ers, and if Aiyuk gets traded that will be one less team doing so. So I could easily see some good WR prospects falling to late 20s/ early 30s.

      Delete
  5. #AZCardinals have released DB Quantrezz Knight

    ReplyDelete
  6. I think the Pit trade scenario makes sense...... there is some pressure to get that offense going, and he seems to fit. Personally, they have to bridge the salaray cap over the next couple of years with an influx of youth.... so, someone/something has to give, at some point. If Aiyuk's camp wants more than $25/yr, it makes it tricky- I would entertain going more 22 and grabbing another receiving TE- would be a lot cheaper, presumably.
    Round 1, Pick 20
    Round 2, Pick 51
    Round 3, Pick 84
    Round 3, Pick 98 (compensatory pick from PHI)
    Round 4, Pick 117
    Round 6, Pick 178 (from CAR through ARI)
    Round 6, Pick 195

    ReplyDelete
  7. "The 49ers view Yiadom as a significant addition and he's the leading candidate to start opposite All-Pro cornerback Charvarius Ward, an arrangement which would move Deommodore Lenoir into the slot in 2024," Eric Branch of the San Francisco Chronicle wrote.
    https://www.49erswebzone.com/articles/179548-49ers-yiadom-leading-candidate-insider/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. My main concern with Yiadom is whether he can maintain his level of play from last season. He was only the starter for half a season, and he hasn't shown that level of play previously.

      Delete
    2. I have the same concern. But as they say, "Only time will tell."

      Delete
  8. I keep seeing Kool-Aid McKinstry being mocked to late 1st/ early 2nd. If he's there at 31, I pull the trigger on him regardless of having other positions of potentially higher "need". Unless there's some issues behind the scenes I don't know of.

    He can struggle against really fast receivers, but man, he's really good.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. McKinstry is good. But I still see the 49ers going with an OL in the draft of major trade. If the 49ers play KC in the SB next season, we need a OL player that can block Chris Jones who has been a big reason why the 49ers have lost the last two Superbowl's.

      Delete
    2. OL is my expectation. But if McKinstrey was there at 31 I couldn't pass him up.

      Delete
    3. I'd be surprised if they drafted him cuz they've yet to prioritize the position above the 3rd round.

      Delete
    4. True - they've historically preferred to fill the gap in FA and mid round picks.

      But with all 3 presumptive starters in the last year of their deal, and salary cap starting to crunch, I wouldn't rule out taking a CB early if the value is there.

      Delete
  9. It sounds like if the 9ers do trade BA it won't happen until the draft has started. The 9ers want to know that certain players are available before they pull the trigger. NE seems very interested in BA but would need to trade back a couple of times to get to the middle of the 1st. Either way we may be waiting awhile before we find out about any trades.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Liked seeing Lynch at the Michigan Pro Day. Perhaps he is looking at possible 2-4rd players
    Junior Colson, AJ Barner, Trevor Keegan, Drake Nugent, Roman Wilson and likely met with Zak Zinter.
    That's a very nice room to chose from. But, I don't see any 1st rd picks except for McCarthy (who, I doubt Lynch is interested in).

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Kris Jenkins too. He'd be a nice round 2 addition imo.

      Delete
  11. You're right. Jenkins is an ascending player, but will he be available for 49ers in the 2nd? Would you draft Jenkins if he's there at 31 in the 1st rd?

    ReplyDelete

2024 Draft Yields 3 Starters

 Here are the three players most likely to be starters this year from the 49ers 2024 draft class: Ricky Pearsall  has yet to have a quarterb...