By Scooter_McG
49ers West Coast meets 49ers East Coast this week, as former 49ers OC Mike McDaniel brings his squad, littered with ex-49ers on offense, to the Bay Area. The Dolphins are flying high this season with a 8W-3L record and on a five game winning streak. In the 49ers they meet a team that is also riding a run of good form having won their past four contests.
This game looks like it should be the toughest contest for either team in over a month and can be seen as something of a barometer test for both squads.
The matchup everyone will be focusing on is the Dolphins #3 ranked by yards and #2 ranked by DVOA offense against the 49ers vaunted defense (#1 in yards allowed, #5 in DVOA). Looking at stats it would seem the 49ers should have little trouble making the Dolphins offense one dimensional in this matchup, with the 49ers #1 in terms of rushing yards allowed while the Dolphins rank 28th in rushing yards gained and 27th in yards per carry. However, their average yards per game has lifted since they acquired Jeff Wilson from the 49ers, though that is partly skewed by one big game against the Browns.
The contribution of Wilson and Mostert on the ground should not be taken for granted and it will be imperative that the 49ers keep them contained, but it is in stopping the Dolphins passing game that will dictate the 49ers success on defense in this game.
It has been well documented this week that Mike McDaniel and the Dolphins have looked attack the intermediate middle often and with great success. The threat of Hill and Waddle with their elite speed helps open a lot of windows for Tua to exploit. Teams are forced to respect that threat and it has resulted in the Dolphins facing the lowest percentage of man coverage in the NFL and the most split safety looks.
With such explosive players you might think most offensive coordinators would be tempted to use a lot of longer developing pass plays to hit teams deep regularly. While this is certainly part of their offense, Mike McDaniel has mostly taken the approach he and Kyle Shanahan developed in San Francisco of looking to get his playmakers the ball in space. Waddle in particular is a player they look to get the ball to in space in the quick game so he can use his speed and elusiveness to take a short play into a big gain. As a result, Tua has one of the lowest average times to throw in the NFL this season at around 2.6 seconds.
Needless to say the Dolphins offense, in particular their passing game, will put a lot of strain on the 49ers defense this week. But the good news is the 49ers have been the best in the NFL since 2018 in defending the intermediate middle of the field (and yes, it is no coincidence that is the same timeframe that Fred Warner has been a 49er). The middle defenders will need to stay disciplined and cover a lot of ground this week, but they have the speed and athleticism to do so. The DBs will also need to be alert about the speed of Hill and Waddle and make sure they aren't afforded too much space and are closed down quickly.
Helping the 49ers, it looks like both starting OTs Terron Armstead and Austin Jackson could be missing this game. Armstead in particular has been a big loss for the Dolphins whenever he has missed time this season. A dominant display from the pass rush would go a long way to slowing down the Dolphins offense and potentially forcing them into a few mistakes.
Offensively, the 49ers will want to establish their running game in this contest. Not just because it is the heart of the offensive identity, but because against a team like the Dolphins it is a good idea to shorten the game, limit their opportunities, and give your defense as much of a break as possible. But teams in recent weeks have been setting themselves to stop the 49ers running game and this week is unlikely to be any different. And with Elijah Mitchell now out again with another knee injury, I expect to see the 49ers looking to use the quick game as an extension of the run a lot in this contest. Miami's defense is pretty much middle of the pack to bottom third in most metrics and the 49ers should have an easier time of things than they had against the Saints last week.
One area they must improve on from last week though is in pass protection. Jimmy G was under heavy duress against the Saints and as a result he put the ball in harms way more often than he had done the previous three games. When given time this season he has looked composed and efficient, and that is the Jimmy G the 49ers need this week.
This has the potential to be the game of the season if both squads play to their potential.
Scooter
ReplyDeleteGood analysis of the Miami offense.
* IMO, the key to a 9er win against Miami is the O-line!
* The O-line must create lanes for the RB to move the chains, control the clock, keep the Miami offense off the field and give JG time to find his receivers.
* Defense must Sack Tua and create turnovers.
* The 9er D controls Miami receivers Hill and Waddle
#4) 9er D limits RB's Wilson and Mostert rush yards.
9ers 24 Miami 20
I agree, Scooter, GPS game. Physicality vs. Speed. I like the 49ers big in this game, with Mason running for a 100 yards.
ReplyDelete1. Offensively - A whole lot of first downs, time of possession. Keep their offensive off the field. Score TD's inside the 20
ReplyDelete2. Defensively - Early in the game press coverage, knock the receiver off their route adds time for the D-line to move Tua.
3. As in chess win the 'middle' applies to both sides of the ball.
Yup, good press coverage on D. Not bite on shifts and motions and other eye candy to let the receivers get off without a hand on them. Armstead and whoever else is the tackle will hopefully be able to knock off a few passes with their arms up.
DeleteWeather has pretty much cleared up in South Bay, and sun is out.
ReplyDeleteNiners had a tarp on the field and field drainage is good. So I'd expect pretty normal conditions for play.
It's a big game and the big time Niners' players will need to show up and make big plays. I'm pretty confident that the game plan will good enough to win.IIRC, it was the Pistons' coach, the late Chuck Daly, who said that while it was a challenge to coach up players to reach their potential, it was a much bigger challenge to have the star players give 100% and perform at their potential in every game. Shanny has not quite been able to get his star player on offense play together at their potential, IMO.
BY THE NUMBERS:
ReplyDeleteThe 9ers are the league’s top-ranked defense, allowing just 281.7 yards per game this year. They’re 1st in rushing defense, giving up 79.5 yards on the ground each game, and in scoring defense, allowing 15.7 points per game. They are 11th against the pass, allowing 202.3 yards per contest.
On offense, the 49ers are 10th in total offense, gaining 358.5 yards per game, 10th in passing offense with 234.2 yards per game through the air, 11 in rushing offense with 124.4 ground yards per game, and 15th in scoring offense, putting up 22.6 points per game.
The Dolphins defensively are 17th in the league, allowing 343.4 yards per game. They’re 22nd against the pass, giving up 233.8 yards per game, and 10th against the run, allowing 109.5 yards per game. Miami is 19th in scoring defense, allowing opponents to average 23.3 points scored per game.
Miami’s offense is third overall this year, gaining 386.7 yards in each game. They’re 2nd in passing offense, picking up 291.9 yards through the air in each game. They’re the 28th-ranked rushing offense, gaining just 94.8 yards per game on the ground. The Dolphins are sixth in scoring offense this season, putting up 25.6 points per game through 11 contests.