Saturday, April 30, 2022

Examining the fit: 49ers 2022 Draft Class

By Scooter_McG

The 2022 NFL Draft is in the books, and the 49ers have added nine new players to the 90-man roster. For the first time in the Shanahan/ Lynch era the team stayed pat at all nine picks with no trades up or back, as they were happy to let the draft fall to them. 

So lets take a look at the players the 49ers took and their potential fit.

Pick #61. Drake Jackson, Edge, USC


Big things were expected of Jackson heading into the 2021 college season, with some draft media believing prior to the season he could be a top 10 pick in the 2022 draft. However, while Jackson showed flashes of his talent in 2021, it was overall a somewhat disappointing season relative to expectations. Even so, leading up to the draft Jackson was a player that some draft media folk still thought was a potential late first/ early 2nd round pick.

Watching the film it is easy to see the potential and upside Jackson possesses. He's a little on the shorter side at around 6'3", but has long arms that he uses to keep OL off his body. He's also very athletic with nice explosion, speed and agility. He played 2021 at under 250lbs and strength looked to be an issue at times during the season. But part of that was because he was asked to play as a LB by the USC caoching staff rather than his more natural DE position. As a freshman he played with his hand in the dirt and was closer to 275lbs, a position and weight that allowed him to burst onto the scene looking like a future star. 

John Lynch outlined the plan with all of their players is to have them find the weight that keeps then as light as possible while retaining their power. For Jackson, that definitely looked to be a weight closer to 270lbs than 250lbs. And Jackson had already brought his weight back to 273lbs at his pro day, where he showed he still had his explosion and agility at that weight. 

He will need refinement of this technique, but so do almost all draft picks. And there is no better coach to get the best out of DL than Kocurek. 

The fit with Jackson is then easy to see. The team repeatedly outlines their philosophy of building the defense front to back, and while they already had a nice stable of DEs in the rotation the team hasn't had a consistent high end pass rush threat opposite Bosa since Ford's back injury flared up. They also didn't have any edge player on contract for 2023 other than Bosa. Jackson provides them a high end talent to develop opposite Bosa over the next four years.  

Pick #93. Tyrion Davis-Price, RB, LSU


RB may not have been high on the list of 49ers needs for the majority of fans, but with the number of mid round RBs the team brought in for visits it really shouldn't have come as a surprise they took one in round 3. Especially when you consider the attrition the team experienced last year (and in prior years) which led to the 49ers needing to use Deebo Samuel as a pseudo-RB for much of the second half of the 2021 season. 

Ty Davis-Price isn't your typical 49ers RB either. He's a big bodied, bruising RB that will run over defenders with a full head of steam. And that steam comes at you in a hurry. While he is listed at 211lbs, he played closer to 230lbs at LSU, but also had a 1.53s 10 yard split at the combine and sub 4.5s 40 yard time. Once he commits to a hole he hits it quickly with nice burst and has the long speed to take it the distance. In many ways he runs like Deebo Samuel. He is also a little bit like a Derrick Henry or Jonathan Taylor type RB, with size, power, quick feet and good straight line speed. 

Importantly he is also a decent blocking RB which means he is a guy that can see the field quickly and not be a liability in protection. 

The fit here is where it gets interesting. Yes, he adds depth to a position that has seen a lot of attrition in recent years. But as a player his traits are similar to last year's 3rd round RB, Trey Sermon. It will be interesting to see whether both players end up making the roster. Also, while he has the speed to be capable of getting the edge, much like Mitchell and Sermon, he is more of an inside runner than outside. The recent RB choices for the 49ers may suggest the team is looking to move to using inside zone and power a little more often. 

Pick #105. Danny Gray, WR, SMU


The Danny Gray pick is such a Kyle Shanahan pick I'm embarrassed I didn't have this one written in ink before the draft. He was a name a lot of 49ers media had linked to the 49ers and it is very easy to see why. 

At a shade under 6'0" and around 185-190lbs, he's not a big WR but has sufficient size to play any of the WR spots. And he is FAST! He had a 4.33s 40 at the combine but more importantly he plays to that speed. He immediately becomes the field stretcher that Shanahan has been seeking, replacing Travis Benjamin (and prior to him, Marquise Goodwin). He has also shown that despite his size he doesn't mind playing through contact to make contested catches down field, incuding some nice acrobatics to contort his body making some difficult catches. 

But that in itself isn't enough to make him a Shanahan type WR. Adding to his value he is a natural playmaker with the ball in his hands, consistently showing excellent instincts after the catch to turn short passes into big gains. Welcome to the YAC Bros, Danny!

He does have areas he needs to clean up, in particular his route running can be sloppy. But overall, there really isn't much not to like about this pick. I don't think there is much more to outline in terms of fit... other than, "like a glove"? 

Pick #134. Spencer Burford, OT/OG, UTSA.


It came as something of a surprise that no OL was taken by the 49ers on day 2. But part of that was guys the team had met with were being taken just before their selection. You can argue they should have been more aggressive in going up and getting one, but the reality is if the team really felt that strongly about any of these players they would have. 

Instead they were happy to sit back and wait and in the end it paid off as they got (in my opinion) good value at pick 134 in Spencer Burford. Burford has nice athleticism and length for the position while also providing significant starting experience in college and showing the versatility to play four of the five OL positions. 

Burford also brings some nasty to the OL. As he said in his conference call with 49ers media, he plays "balls to the wall", not taking any plays off and consistently playing to the whistle. He does need to add some strength and refine his technique to hold up better against power, but the physical and mental traits are there. 

In terms of fit, he has plenty of experience at OG and OT in zone based offensive schemes and could easily be used at either. Burford will likely come in and compete right away for one of the OG spots or the swing tackle position.

Pick #172. Samuel Womack, CB, Toledo.  


Womack isn't a player I had anywhere near my radar, but after reading up on him I can see why the 49ers like him. He's on the small side at around 5'9" and under 190lbs, but he has excellent athleticism and a real nose for the football. He finished with 45 PBUs during his college career, leading the MAC in PBUs for three straight years, to go with 5 INTs. 

His closing speed is excellent and a key factor in leading the MAC in PBUs the past three years. He is also a feisty and scrappy competitor that looks to maintain connection with this receiver and is happy to come up and make the tackle.  

In terms of fit, Womack will step right into the competition for the starting slot CB position to replace K'Waun Williams. 

Pick #187. Nick Zakelj, OG/OT, Fordham. 


Zakelj is a big bodied OL at around 6'6" and 315-320lbs, that also has nice foot quickness and athleticism for his size. He was a four year starter at OT in college but got snaps at OG at the Senior Bowl and he said in his conference call he expects to be competing at OG with the 49ers. The move makes sense as Zakelj has arms on the shorter side for an OL and he can struggle in pass pro on the perimeter against edge players that threaten with speed. 

Zakelj has technique issues that led to some wildly inconsistent play in college, but the high end plays showed there is talent there if the consistency can be unlocked. Zakelj also brings a nasty demeanour, often looking to finish his blocks through the whistle and bury his man where able. 

The 49ers really do love finding OL on day 3 that bring plenty of starting experience and a mean streak, and Zakelj fits the mold. He'll be in the competition at OG this season though he likely needs a year on the sidelines to clean up his technique.    

Pick #220. Kalia Davis, DT, UCF.


Davis was a player both razor and I highlighted as a potential good value pick on day 3. He's on the shorter side at 6'1" but is stocky at a shade over 300lbs. He shows good athleticism and agility for a guy his size and has a nice ability to anchor in part due to his height giving him a natural leverage advantage. 

His calling cards are his power and explosiveness. He looks to knife through gaps quickly and then has the power and strength to pull through and make plays. He also has the upper body strength to knock OL backwards when taking them head on.

Davis opted out of 2020 and then hurt his knee in 2021, so he hasn't played much football the past two years and it is unclear as to how quickly he may be ready to contribute for the 49ers. But his playing style reminds me a lot of DJ Jones, another 6th round pick for the 49ers. And like Jones I can see Davis as a nice rotational piece early in his career while working his way up the depth chart each year playing both the 1T and 3T.

Pick #221. Tariq Castro-Fields, Penn State.


Castro-Fields brings good size (6'0", 197lbs), speed (4.38s 40), explosiveness (37" vertical) and agility (7.05s 3-cone) to the table, as well as plenty of starting experience at CB as part of one of the better college defenses in college at Penn State. Throughout his time at Penn State he showed flashes of his ability but also struggled with consistency which is part of why he fell in the draft. An injury in 2020 may also have contributed.

Castro-Fields is a physical player and can get a little too grabby at times. But the physical traits are there as is the competitive toughness. He's seen by many in the draft media as something of a boom or bust prospect that tantalises with the high end ability but frustrates with the low end plays.

Of note, Castro-Fields played FS in high school and excelled in that position before being switched to CB at Penn State. If he doesn't pan out at CB there may be potential for a switch back to safety with the 49ers.

Pick #262. Brock Purdy, QB, Iowa State.


At one time Purdy was considered a potential future high draft pick after impressive 2018 and 2019 campaigns, but he never took his game to the next level in the following seasons. As a result, Purdy finds himself with the dubious honour of being the 2022 NFL Draft's Mr Irrelevant. 

Still, there are things to like about Purdy. He's a four year starter at a Power 5 school that set school records in touchdowns and passing yards. He's at his best in a play-action style offense that likes to get the ball out fast to its playmakers (hello 49ers), but doesn't really have the arm to be a consistent downfield passer. 

This pick is clearly about adding depth to the QB room which will in all likelihood lose Jimmy G prior to training camp. But with Trey Lance on the roster, Purdy's most realistic path to the 49ers roster is to work his way up to the backup QB spot over the next four years. 

Summary 

Prior to the draft there was a lot of fan chatter about what the team needed, with the common thoughts being some combination of interior OL (especially center), safety, edge, slot CB and potentially WR needed as early picks. So when the 49ers came away with an edge, RB and WR on day 2, there was understandably some level of head scratching on the part of fans. 

But there shouldn't be. This is a team that (a) has an already strong roster with in-built potential solutions to fill perceived "holes" courtesy of roster moves made in the draft last year and FA this year and (b) showed last year they are happy to use the draft to build competition for spots with more of a focus on future years than perceived "immediate needs". 

Day 3 saw the team add competition to the OL, which is now looking like a real dog fight for both starting and backup spots. It is interesting that a center was not brought in early, and neither of the OL added have center experience. To me this suggests the team believes Alex Mack is coming back... or has something lined up with a replacement in FA. Of note, JC Tretter and Alex Mack are the NFLPA together. 

It was also interesting to see no safety brought in. However, it needs to be kept in mind that Tarvarius Moore was expected to be the starter last year before his injury, the team added Odum in FA, and they drafted Hufanga last year. Also, Tartt remains a FA and the 49ers have leverage in signing him as they can offer him a four year qualifying contract, paying him $1.25M more than the vet minimum while only having the vet minimum count against the cap. 

Overall the 49ers have added three players that have a chance to contribute as rookies on day 2, as well as a number of guys that have a chance to compete for playing time on day 3. But as with the 2021 draft, this looks to be far more about 2023 and beyond than about 2022.   

122 comments:

  1. Fine, quick work, Scooter!
    I assume the Niners are pleased with their haul. Wonder how many will redshirt...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks Mood. Yeah, I suspect the team is quite happy with how that went.

      I also suspect a few of these guys won't see many snaps in 2022.

      Delete
  2. WR Tay Martin, OC/OG/FB Jason Poe and SS Leon O'Neal have signed as UDFAs.

    Poe is an athletic freak.

    ReplyDelete
  3. George here. Bravo, Scooter! Excellent wrap up.

    ReplyDelete
  4. After reading about these picks, it looks like a nice draft. I like the speed of Gray but his hands might be an issue. Does Price have good hands for coming out of the backfield? The Niners go a lot of 4th and one and Price fits that bill, something that was needed.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yeah, looks like a nice enough draft to me too.

      Part of the fun of the draft though is that it is easy to look good on paper, and easy to praise or criticise based on what draft media tells people they should feel about the players chosen.

      In the end any of these players could turn out great for a long time or be out of the NFL tomorrow, no matter where they were selected. And realistically, most of these guys won't end up much more than depth players for a few years. Getting drafted just provides the opportunity and its up to these men to now put in the work.

      Delete
  5. Excellent work as usual Scooter. Lynch did a good job for just sitting there and using his picks, but he's constructed a roster that finally allowed him to do just that. This sets up to be an extremely interesting and competitive training camp. To the victor go the spoils and may the best men win. Go Niners!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks razor. I agree - part of the reason they didn't need to go reach for a player or feel pressured to bundle picks to move up is they already have a strong roster in place.

      Delete
  6. Didn't expect so much love for Brendel by Lynch and Shanny.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yeah, I came away from that presser feeling that Brendel will get first crack at the OC position over Brunskill should Mack retire as expected. Unlikely they sign someone.

      Also came away feeling the team will try a lot of these guys at center as well. Make sure they get the best 5 on the field.

      Delete
    2. Scooter, maybe he learned a thing or two from Mack.

      Delete
  7. My grades for all 9 picks. I believe the Holy Grail of draft picks are when BPA and need come together, and cause "value", so keep that in mind:

    Pick #61 - DE Drake Jackson: Loved this pick, could be a difference maker opposite Bosa as soon as this season. Great start to the draft! GRADE: A

    Pick #93 - RB TYROIN DAVIS-PRICE: Love the name, and I like the player, but this is where things went south in a hurry for lynch & Co! Poor value at this spot, IMO, and a missed opportunity for the 49ers. GRADE: C-

    Pick #105 - WR DANNY GRAY: Again, I like the player, and while he's a true burner and should should be able to take over T. Benjamin's role right away, I don't like the value here because Niners could have filled bigger needs with better players here, and you can find guys like this much later in the draft. GRADE: C-

    Pick #134 - IOL SPENCER BURFORD: I do like this pick. Fills a need and this seems like a good spot for him. He's a good system fit, and I like his physical traits, especially the long arms and god mobility, and he's extremely young. GRADE: B-

    Pick #172 - CB SAMUEL WOMAK: Better value here than the previous two picks, and I think this kid has a good chance of developing into the Niners starting Nickle CB. Long arms, great speed, and high football IQ all work in his favor. Small conference, FBS talent might mean a little more work to make the next level jump, but I was happy with this pick. GRADE: B+

    Pick #187 - OT Nick Zakelj: Meh! Four-year zone-blocking starter at the Div 1-AA level, with inconsistent technique that leads to inconsistent play, and a bad habit of over-setting or under-setting shifty rushers. Tenacious attitude, with good power and reasonable agility, projects as a backup talent at the NFL level. GRADE: C

    Pick #220 - DT KALIA DAVIS: Redundant, Kevin Givens clone. Tore his ACL on 10/21/21, and is on the mend. I have mixed feelings about this pick. While I think Davis could end up being a sleeper pick, this feels more like the next K. Street, only from a smaller school. GRADE: C-

    Pick #221 - CB TARIQ CASTRO-FIELDS: This is an intriguing pick. Penn State tends to produce well coached prospects, and to get a 4 year starter with this athletic profile this far down in round 6, it feels like a decent value pick, even though I think he needs to move to FS. GRADE: C+

    Pick #262 - QB BROCK PURDY: Kind of a strange way to end the draft, but hey, he's already a legend seeing that he's "MR. IRRELEVANT - 2022!" All joking aside, I really don't know what to think about this pick. Is he a more mobile version of Nick Mullens? Maybe. Could the 49ers have found a Priority Free Agent QB with just as much talent, outside of the draft? Probably. GRADE: C

    ReplyDelete
  8. I think we had a solid draft and Drake Jackson and Danny Gray have the potential to thrive in this Offense.

    Our undrafted class really makes me excited cuz imo this is one of the best we got and especially Dohnovan West he has the potential to start in 2 seasons.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm asking myself why the premier udfa center signed with us if Mack is returning.

      Delete
  9. Get rid of JG and Deebo as soon as possible. Take the loss and go from there. Will Deebo hold out? that's possible, for the whole year? that's very possible. Deebo success has been so great he might have out priced himself, why, a team is going to have to give up a lot for him and then pay a huge salary. Teams like GB, Ravens, Chiefs, Bills don't need him to be successful, the Jets got smart and did not make the trade. There are so many players in the past who were at the top of their game and got traded and were paid well; shortly after that their careers took a dive. Seems like most teams do not feel Deebo is worthy of a trade that will cost two first and some more and then pay his salary at which he may once again decide he wants to be traded. It's about the team not the individual.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I don't think Deebo is going to win a battle of wills with John Lynch. If he holds out he's stuck here for another year. The only card he has is the retirement card, because we can franchise him after he finishes his 4th year. The good news is we stood our ground and set the right precedent. The next player that wants to go down this road will realize it leads to a dead end with this front office.

      Delete
    2. Deebo, is not holding out for a whole year.
      If he did, he would add a year to his contract and not get paid his 4 Million.
      If SF offered him something like 24 Million, over 4 years He would need to make something like 30 Million a year over the next 4 year just break. That doesn't even take into account inflation, interest working for him or the fact that he would get to his second contract faster and he would be a year younger.
      If you account for those things he likely needs to make something closer to 32 million a year after holding out for 1 year.
      Good luck with that.

      Delete
    3. I agree that Deebo won't hold out, but it's not that simple. All he has to do is come down with a phantom "lower back strain" at the start of training camp, and continue to "aggravate" the phantom injury every time he attempts to return to the field. He might end up hurting his long term stock, but he can still collect his 2022 paychecks as long as he doesn't hold out, even if he never takes a single snap. Sure, he could end up hurting his long term stock, but he can still get paid for this season even if he never steps onto the field.

      The thing is, what Deebo apparently doesn't understand is that, even if the 49ers lowballed him with an insulting original offer, and I don't know that they did, the way in which Deebo has gone about expressing his displeasure by trying to publicly strong arm the 49ers into getting his way, has really hurt his own position in terms of negotiations, because he gave the 49ers choice but to stand their ground. He essentially backed the Niners into a corner, without giving them a way out that doesn't make them appear weak, and as if they completely capitulated to the demands of a disgruntled star player. And because of that, I don't blame the 49ers for digging their heels in on a potential trade, and asking for a kings ransom in return. I don't know who told Deebo to turn this into such a public spectacle, but looks kind of foolish now that the market is set, and AJ Brown didn't end up making nearly as much money as Deebo seemed to think his market was after Tryreek Hill's deal.

      The vast majority of fans dissagree with the way Deebo has handled this, not because fans don't support the players, it's just way in which Deebo decided to go nuclear in the public domain even though this entire process was still in the preliminary stage. I 100% approve of the way the 49ers have handled this situation and I just hope they can find a solution that works for the 49ers before this bleeds into the regular season.

      Delete
    4. Given he reportedly continues to agitate for a trade, and the 49ers have shown a willingness in the past to pay top dollar for their own, I find it very hard to believe money is really the issue here. If it is though, he'll get paid and the problem will go away.

      If the issue is not money then it becomes far more problematic and Deebo may not care that feigning an injury may hurt his future value.

      Delete
    5. Even feigning an injury and getting paid his 4Million this year, he would likely miss out on an additional 20+ Million this year.

      He is likely going to get offered around 25Million per year.
      In addition to this, by feigning injury and missing most of the season, it would mean that in 2 of his 4 years he's missed the majority of the season. This would definitely lower his value contract wise.

      There is no way he would make back the amount of money he lost.

      Even if its personal, missing out on that kind of cash would be hard for anyone to stomach.

      Delete
    6. Deebo has zero leverage in this. He sits out, his contract continues. He "retires", his contract goes on ice and he's niners property until perpetuity. He tries to claim "injury" and miss games, if its push come to shove Niners "Keyshawn" him and deactivate him, then next year just franchise him so a team has to give up picks to get him.

      How about we wait until Sept 1 before we excommunicate guys?

      Delete
  10. An excerpt from Cam Mellor's article critiquing our draft:

    Jackson has great balance and presents a near-perfect complement opposite Joey Bosa. An incredibly athletic player, Jackson can run down running backs in backside pursuit, and he uses his first step to blow by slower tackles. He truly has a well-rounded skill set to wreak havoc in today’s NFL.

    https://www.profootballnetwork.com/san-francisco-49ers-nfl-draft-grades-2022-drake-jackson-comes-off-the-board-in-round-2/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I have to be honest I dont like Jackson much but I understand the pick. Betting on upside based on his traits still makes sense.

      *Note* My reason for not liking Jackson is based on him be Meh against low quality competition in the Pac12. That said its possible a lot of that was due to his coaches not understanding how to use him.

      Delete
    2. That said other than the rb, I liked a lot of the players they picked up later on and added as UDFA's... Burford, Castro-fields, West were my favorite adds but Womack, Davis and Poe are also interesting.

      That said I really hope they bring back Tartt after this draft. Because I don't see another safety on the roster that I trust in coverage should anything happen to Ward.

      Delete
    3. "Joey" Bosa is where I stopped reading.

      Delete
    4. Shoup, I felt the same way about Jackson leading up to the draft. Wasn't that impressed with what I saw as it was occasional flashes against not great opposition. I expected more consistency and dominance.

      But after reading about what he was asked to do, the issues at USC, and going back and watching some of his freshman play, I like the pick

      Delete
    5. Razor
      opposite "Joey Bosa?" lol

      Delete
    6. Geep, I figured Shoup would've caught it right away.

      Delete
    7. Yeah, I was a bit slow on that one :D.

      Delete
    8. Scooter we are on the same page regarding him. That's why I like the pick and understand the thought process without loving the player.
      For me, the best additions were the later round picks and UDFA's, there are several players picked up that have a chance to become solid contributors.

      Delete
  11. George here.
    Jason Poe, the first 300-pound TE?

    https://twitter.com/LombardiHimself/status/1520635145182539776?cxt=HHwWgMCj2fPmsJoqAAAA

    ReplyDelete
  12. Razor & Scooter
    Thanks for providing the blog Razor. I've enjoyed reading the insight and opinions both you and Scooter have provided. Looking forward to both your thoughts and comments covering the 2022 season.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Of the 9 draft picks I think my favourite from a value perspective is Kalia Davis. I really liked him pre-draft and think he will develop into either a starter or nice part of the DT rotation.

    Based on the comments I'm seeing and hearing, sounds like the pick most 49ers fans dislike the most is Ty Davis-Price. Mostly from a value perspective.

    I get that. The "RBs don't matter" argument has a lot of traction in the NFL and draft media community, and obviously that then pervades into fan thinking. And obviously there is a strong belief that Shanahan can make any RB off the street good. Both arguments have some merit but at the same time are a bit of a fallacy. Most of the top RBs in the NFL are guys taken on day 1 or 2 of a draft, and for as much as people like to talk about all later round success stories the odds of getting a good one after day 2 are low, just as with any position.

    Regarding Shanahan, while he can find RBs to do the job with later picks or UDFAs, he's also had a few guys not pan out and is yet to have a 1,000 yard RB at the 49ers. Part of that is Shanahan has used a committee approach and part of that is injuries, but it is also clear given the draft resources they have used at RB that he has been looking to find that high end RB for his offense.

    And as far as value goes, which rookie was the most valuable for the 49ers in 2021, regardless of where they were drafted? A RB. Yes, he was a 6th round pick, but I'm sure he wouldn't be in a draft do over. It's a position that can see the field early and provide a strong contribution immediately.

    All of which is a long winded way of saying that the argument of Ty Davis-Price not being a "value" pick is, imo, something borne from reading too much into the current rhetoric on the position rather than looking at how the player and position can contribute to the 49ers - which just happens to be one of the most run heavy teams in the NFL despite not having a star RB and consistently having to deal with injuries at the position.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Only one I got right. Reminded me of Jones immediately.

      Delete
    2. Scooter,
      I did not like that pick at all. That said My reasoning is more based on WHO they picked.

      I don't think TDP is a good fit.

      He had 7 games where he didn't average 4 yards per carry, that is rough.

      As a Bigger back that doesn't break tackles, and lacks explosiveness he needs carries to wear down his opponents. The problem is Kyle doesn't really run his offense like that, preferring to platoon his runners.

      Delete
    3. I think the 49ers had a pretty good draft, and I give them an overall B- grade. The problem I had with the 49ers draft is the value of their picks. Of course none of that will matter if most of these guys turn into quality players, but we all know that the draft is a bit of a crap shoot no matter what, which is why value has to be considered when creating a draft board.

      For me, the problem started with the Tyrion Davis-Price pick. I like the player A LOT, but I think there was a 99.9% chance that he would have been available much later in this draft, and that's why I have a problem it. It feels like this is a perfect example of Kyle and John finding a player they really like, and then completely disregarding the other factors that help determine the value of the pick. Using a 3rd round pick on a RB who has a relative lack of college production, and who, at least statistically, looks like more of a 2-down back (although I think he might actually be a 3-down back), is a problem when these factors should have, and probably would have pushed him into the 5th round range. In fact 99% of NFL draft evaluators had 5th round, 6th round, and UDFA grades on him. In terms of RB's, Draft Outsiders had Davis-Price ranked 31st, Walter Football had him listed outside of their top 24, CBS Sports had him outside of their top 20, and PFF had him outside of their top 15.

      Now, does that mean Tyrion Davis-Price isn't very good? HECK NO! He looks to me like a bigger, more physical version of Elijah Mitchell, and if that's the case, he's going to be a difference maker.

      Delete
    4. Any argument that starts with an assumption a player would be available at a later pick is entirely based on what the draft media wants you to believe. It's an assumption you simply can't know is true.

      Teams draft boards are different to the draft media.

      To say like the player a lot, then say he would have been available later, in itself should show you how invalid such an assumption is.

      Delete
    5. Shoup, we agree on that too. I have no qualms drafting the position in the third round, but don't love the player.

      Delete
    6. If you lose out on a RB in round 2 because another team decided to overdraft him? So be it. Pick another player. There are still 150 other draftable players still left, and the odds are, a lot of potential stars still left at that point.

      NFL teams literally contract with these analytics companies like PFF, that focus on the analysis of NCAA draft prospects and NFL players. That's what they do. And the reason teams do this is that these companies have a lot more resources than each individual teams. I am not saying the 49ers shouldn't do their own analysis, because of course they should. They know what kind of players they need, and the kinds of players that fit their system. But having draft crushes without respect for positional value, overall ranking, and so forth, seems like a bad strategy to me, especially with the 2nd overall pick of your draft. That's all I am saying.
      Especially at a low value position like RB, and especially 3-4 rounds earlier than projected by 99.9% of the experts, with your 2nd overall pick, in the year 2022, when you have more pressing needs at other positions? That doesn't seem very smart to me.

      Delete
    7. Sorry, I meant RND 3.

      Delete
    8. Lol! You complain the team didn't trade up to take a player then complain they should have been more patient when they draft a player you disagree with. SMH.

      Delete
    9. Such is the life of a man who has 49reasons...

      Delete
    10. "I have no qualms drafting the position in the third round, but don't love the player"

      The funny thing is that I really like the player, and some guys are late bloomers, but #93? That's the problem. I believe that if you are going to draft a RB that high in 2022, you better not have any other pressing needs at any premium positions, and it better be a RB who has a ton of production over multiple seasons.

      Tyrion Davis-Price had only 104 carries in 2020. 104!

      Would I draft a RB who only carried the ball 104 times as a sophomore, barely seeing the field unless his team had a big lead at #93? Not at #93. Not a RB who only had one "decent" season's worth of production? No chance!

      To be clear, I don't want to bash the players because I like him. He seems like a good dude, and some guys are late bloomers, and he might be one of those guys.

      Might be.

      Delete
    11. Let me rephrase part of that. You better not have another "potential starting RB" if you are going to draft a RB with 1 season's worth of "decent" production, and couldn't find the field as a sophomore, unless his team had a huge lead (according to the local sports publication - Lafayette Daily Ad) with your 2nd overall pick.

      And BTW, I am not saying you guys are wrong, that's just my humble opinion. Hopefully this kid is much better than his production/play time would suggest, and then some! I think he might be pretty darn good once ANTHONY LYNN gets his hands on him!

      Delete
    12. It's a 3rd round pick. Not a 1st or 2nd. At that point you are either drafting guys with high end traits but only decent not high end production, or high end productive guys with decent traits.

      If TDP had multiple years of strong production he might have gone earlier.

      It's a projection pick based on how the team sees him fitting their style of offense.

      Delete
    13. Also to be clear, I like most of these players, and I like the 49ers priority UDFA's as well. Some people didn't like this draft, but not me!

      The 49ers have a very good team, and should be in contention this season as long as Trey Lance doesn't have too many inexperienced hiccups!

      Delete
    14. Honestly, I'm not bashing the 49ers draft? I promise I am not! As a whole, the 49ers have been pretty good when it comes to the draft. Not great with their RND 3 picks, but pretty good as a whole, and terrific in the later rounds!

      I was actually much more upset with the Niners took KAPRI BIBBS in the 4th round. And I was much more upset when they drafted JOE WILLIAMS in the 4th round. But this just goes against MY philosophy, that's all.

      I can see the projection of Ty Davis-Price, and I like it. I think he might end up being terrific, I just don't like "might be" part of this as a top 100 pick.

      Delete
    15. Flagler was a 1st round pick.

      49ers don't draft based on your philosophy.

      Delete
    16. Yes, Flagler was a first round pick. Did Bill Walsh say anything that would suggest he was only talking about first round pick?

      Advanced technology means that every team in the NFL has access to access to the same kinds of data, and the same kinds material for evaluating players. And every team in the NFL uses the same basic formula - BPA before need, UNLESS it's too close to call, especially in the top 100, and probably closer to the top 150! There is no way on gods green earth that Davis-Price was the 93rd best player, based on every possible pre-draft measurable and pre-draft data, so any way you want to spin it, this player was over-drafted, which is why jaws dropped around the NFL when this pick was announced. 99% of the people that know this stuff, and live stuff, and sleep this stuff agree that Davis-Price grossly over drafted, and as a result at least partly, so was Danny Gray, though not nearly as badly. You may not believe it, but it's a fact based on a strong NFL consensus.

      Will it end up working out for the 49ers? Maybe. Apparently I like the RB better than you do, which I find kind of humorous. Maybe you are just one of those fans that refuse to criticize your team even when you clearly dissagree with their decisions? I don't know.

      All I know is that I am in the 90+ percentile of experts who spend a lot more time and resources on this stuff than we do, that believe that this was not only a massive over-reach by the 49ers, because their was a lot of players that were not only rated a lot higher, but also proven themselves with much more production, which is what Bill Walsh was illuding to.

      Delete
    17. Thankfully the 49ers don't usually reach as badly as this, or they would likely be in a very different position in the NFC. That's not to say the Davis-Price can't live up to his 3rd round status, only that he didn't earn a 3rd round grade (or even a 4th round grade)nas a collegiate pro. That's all.

      Delete
    18. Was Cole Strange over-drafted? Cam Jurgens?

      If we believe the media guides they were. But I bet the 49ers would have had those guys ranked high too.

      It's only a reach if you believe the draft media know everything. The same people that thought Malik Willis had no chance of lasting beyond pick 20.

      Delete
    19. Why do you keep saying "media"?

      Do you think the 49ers have access to some sort of top-secret information or something? Is that your point of contention?

      Yes, Cole Strange out of Tennessee-Chattanooga was over-drafted. Are you kidding? There is a reason that there aren't many players drafted in the first 100 picks that come out of Tennessee-Chattanooga, and that's kind of my point. Did you see the response around the league to that pick by the Patriots? Did you see McVay and Snead's (the current World Champions) reaction? And BTW, the days of Tom Brady covering up for the Patriots poor drafting of offensive players is a thing of the past, don't you think? Bill knows defense, so he should probably defer when it comes to offensive players.

      As for Can Jurgens, he was one of the top rated OC prospects in this entire draft. Jurgens allowed just ONE SACK on 1,016 pass-blocking snaps during his college career at Nebraska. He was also widely regarded as a 2nd round pick, which is exactly where he went, isn't it?

      I am not talking about slight reaches if it fills a major void. I'm talking about MAJOR reaches for a position where you already drafted one of the top rookie RB's during the prior season in the SIXTH round. Doesn't that tell you something about RB's?

      As for Malik Willis, he was all over the place in the view of evaluators, because he's a raw QB, and came from a small program, in a FBS Sub-division, so you are kind of making my point for me again. That's a tough guy to evaluate.

      Davis-Price was a 3 year RB who could barely even get on the field before his junior season. If he was a 4 year starter in the SEC, or a productive 3 year starter, he might have earned a 3rd round grade, but HE WASN'T and HE DIDN'T!

      My gosh, this isn't exactly rocket science!

      Delete
    20. And BTW Scooter, in the context of NFL prospect rankings, it is possible for the 49ers to "reach" for a prospect, whether they like a certain player or not. In fact, I would hope that they have a differing opinion about this kid than the majority of people who make a living evaluating prospects, or else the 49ers have even bigger problems than just reaching for this one prospect, don't you think? lol

      Delete
    21. Draft media - pretty straight forward meaning I would have thought. Media that covers the draft. You know, where you are pulling all of your thoughts from.

      Jurgens was widely thought to be a 3rd or 4th round pick. Stoopid Eagles.

      And yes, I think NFL teams have access to a lot more information than the draft media. Which is why most of the draft media relies on what they are hearing from teams during lying season.

      Delete
    22. Fair enough, I don't want to beat a dead horse. By the way, I really enjoyed your draft recap.

      I'm just trying to pick your brain on this because I find it fascinating how different we see this, and I am definitely not saying that I am right, and you are wrong.

      Let me ask you this: Are you saying that the 49ers can't possibly reach for a player because, if it's a player they like, then it doesn't matter where they draft him?

      Or are you saying that there is simply no way the public can ever accurately rate and rank NFL prospects, no matter how strong the public consensus is, because why exactly?

      Because they don't have access to the same game film and data?

      I understand that it's highly unlikely that every NFL team's draft board is exactly the same. In fact, I am sure there are differences on every single draft board around the league. But I always assumed they were very similar, because a) even within the league, scouts and personnel executives move around from organization to organization, and b) aren't they all using similar, if not identical tools, and data points for evaluating these players?

      For instance, according to data available to the public, Davis-Price was the 21st ranked RB, and 199th ranked prospect, ON AVERAGE, between 5 of this biggest, most widely used databases available to the public. Are you saying the NFL uses an entirely different set of data points?

      Thanks for engaging with me on this.

      Delete
    23. I'm saying we have no idea, and using draft media rankings is merely a guide.

      I've seen the Patriots get ridiculed for years for over drafting players only to watch many of those picks become good players. The Patriots draft based on scheme fit and what they see as a 1st or 2nd rounder may be a day 3 guy for another team.

      On the opposite end of the spectrum, there was a period where the Bengals admitted they used draft media guides and as a result would win draft day grades with the incredible value they seemingly got, only to see those amazing value players fail in the NFL.

      Delete
    24. OK, well then this is incredibly interesting. Let me show you just how close these "media" pre-draft rankings were, according to NFLdrafbuzz.com, which uses a large number of draft databases (anywhere from 5-10) to create an overall consensus. A differential score of + indicates good value. The higher the number, the better value and vice-versa.

      For instance: The 49ers drafted DRAKE JACKSON with their 61st overall pick. He was rated as the 57th overall prospect, according to this database, which would indicate that the 49ers ended up with a differential value of +4 which = equals a positive value score of +4 draft slots. That's GOOD VALUE according to this database, because they drafted him 4 slots later than he was rated.

      Now let me show you just how accurate these pre-draft rankings actually were (keep in mind I am manually counting so while I think it's accurate, there could be a slight error of 1 or 2 draft slots):

      Here are where the TOP 10 RB's went in relation to their database draft rankings:

      RB Rank # 1) BREECE HALL - was ranked 44th overall, and he was drafted 44th overall. Exactly spot on so a (differential score of 0 slots)

      Rank #2) ISAIAH SPILLER - ranked 72nd overall. Spiller ended being drafted 114 overall (differential score +42)

      Rank #3) KENNETH WALKER III - ranked 46th overall, ended up being the 41st overall pick (-5)

      Rank #4) DAMEON PIERCE - ranked 97th overall, ended up being drafted with the 98th overall pick (+1)

      Rank #5) JAMES COOK - ranked 87th overall, ended up being selected 63rd overall (-24)

      Rank #6) RACHAAD WHITE - was ranked as the 106th overall prospect, ended up being drafted 91st overall (-15)

      Rank #7) BRIAN ROBINSON JR - ranked 105th overall, ended up being drafted with the 98th overall pick (-7)

      Rank #8) JEROME FORD - ranked 137th overall, ended up being the 141st overall pick (-4)

      Rank #9) KYREN WILLIAMS - ranked 106th overall, ended up going with the 149th pick (+43)

      Rank #10) PIERRE STRONG JR - ranked 116th overall, ended up going 88th overall (-28)

      And here is the 49ers 2nd pick of the draft. I was actually wrong about Davis-Price being the 21st rated RB as he was actually the 28th rated RB, and 199 overall, according to this database.

      RB Rank #28th) Tyrion Davis-Price - ranked 199th overall, went 93rd overall (differential score of -106 slots)

      As you can clearly see, of the top 11 RB's drafted, the 49ers gave away by far the most value. In fact, it's really remarkable haw much value they gave up (a differential score of -106 slots). I wouldn't be surprised if the is the highest negative differential in the entire draft, and by a lot. How do you explain that?

      Delete
    25. This is the smoking gun Scooter. This is an amalgamation of a number of different draft databases. This is how much value the 49ers gave up in relation to a average of a number of different draft databases, averaged out, and given an overall draft value score.

      Let me do a little more math. If you take the top 11 RB's selected in the draft, which amazingly includes Tyrion Davis-Price who was ranked as the 28th RB according to this amalgamation of more than a handful of the top draft prospect databases, and you take Davis-Price out of the equation and then calculate where this prospects were drafted in relation to where they were ranked, there is simply NO MATHMATICAL way to explain away the value that the 49ers gave away, in comparison to all of the other teams, but let's do the math anyways.

      Of the other top 10 RB's selected in the draft, the average difference between where they were ranked, and where they were actually drafted is ... OMG, this is remarkable. The top 10 RB's (excluding Davis-Price) averages a difference of +3.3 draft slots when comparing the draft prospect rankings pre-draft, and where they actually ended up being drafted.

      That's incredibly accurate! in other words, the draft database was within an average of less than 4 draft slots (+ or -) of where these prospects actually ended up being drafted!

      Let me show my math:

      Hall = 0
      Spiller = +24
      Walker III = -5
      Pierce = +1
      Cook = -24
      White = -15
      Robinson Jr = -7
      Ford = -4
      Williams +43
      Strong jr = -28

      Top 10 RB's drafted = an average of +3.3333 draft slots

      Davis-Price = -106 draft slots

      Delete
    26. Cool story.

      Don't recall where I said draft media get it all wrong. Just that how the draft media rank these players is a guide only. And that teams rank them differently. So Davis-Price was ranked very differently to the draft media, at least by the 49ers.

      Dohnovan West was meant to go as high as the 4th round.

      Delete
    27. Hah, I already said I thought the 49ers had a pretty decent draft, and in fact, I also said that they probably made up for some of the value they gave away in round 3 with their crop of priority UDFA's. And the crazy things is that I even said that I like Tyrion Davis-Price the player, apparently better than you.

      So why is it like pulling teeth to get you to acknowledge the fact that, according to people who do this stuff for a living, collecting all of the data throughout the football season, and studying film until their eyes go fuzzy, that the 49ers would simply give away such a large amount of draft value by taking a RB at draft position #93, who was ranked and projected to be drafted much, much later than the 49ers drafted him?

      I know it's only "projected value", but still, that's the way these teams make their draft boards by ranking players by projected value, right? With all of the options available to them, I would be willing to bet that not a single person on the planet earth figured Tyrion Davis-Price might make sense for them at #93.

      What really gets me is that they just drafted 2 RB's last year, and the RB they took at pick at #88, could barely get on the field, while the RB they found in round 6 ended up being one of the top rookie RB's in the entire league. It felt a little bit like the twilight zone to me, and a few of my buddies who were watching the draft together, that they would take yet another RB in round 3, especially the kid that they took. Let's just say our jaws hit the floor when they announced that pick.

      Delete
    28. Lol. You keep leaning into exactly what I'm saying fans do.

      Cool. The draft media, many of whom I know put a lot of work into what they do, came up with projections of where players should be picked. For some of the players, the projections by the draft media were all around the same area, some varied wildly. Put them all together and you get a draft "consensus" from the draft media, even though many of the players may have a wide variance in where individual prognosticators think they may go.

      Then come draft day, some players go very close to where they are projected. The further you get into the draft, the greater the variance you start to see between draft media "consensus" versus where guys get drafted.

      The reason? Because NFL teams set their draft boards independently of the draft media.

      So while draft media and draft consensus may suggest a player was either great value where they were taken, or was a big reach, what we actually know is that the draft media didn't think the player would be taken where they were taken. And that is all we know. For guys that draft media suggests is a "reach", we have no way of knowing whether the player may have been taken the very next pick. For guys that went well after they were projected to go by the draft media, we know teams didn't value the player the same way the draft media did.

      Delete
    29. Anyway, this has become a way more involved discussion than I intended. I'm not too much of a fan of the pick, but not because of a perception of it being a "reach". Just not convinced he will be that good in the NFL, though I can see why the 49ers think he can be.

      I would say the same for any player that was considered good "value" by draft media if I didn't think they were that good. There are plenty of players I think were drafted high that the media liked that I think won't live up to their draft status or perceived value by the media. But it's just my opinion and ultimately my opinion doesn't matter for diddly.

      If the 49ers thought he was the BPA at that point, based on their rankings, so be it. Same goes for any team and the players they take. They know better than me what sort of traits they are after.

      Now he's on the roster it doesn't matter when he was drafted.

      Delete
    30. So it might have just been a 500,000,000 to 1 "coincidence" that 10 of the top 11 RB's drafted were all drafted within 4 slots of where the "media" as you call them, projected them to be drafted?

      And it also might have just been a coincidence that Sean McVay and Les Snead openly mocked the Patriots for "reaching" for an offensive lineman who just so happened to be projected by the "media" as a late 3rd round pick (80th overall), but it's somehow a bit of a stretch to conclude that the 49ers reached when they took a RB a full 106 draft slots ahead of where they were ranked, according to the "media" consensus?

      Well OK then.

      Delete
    31. To be fair Kyle also said that Strange looked like a first rounder on tape to him.

      So there is at least one other team that likely valued him as such.

      Delete
    32. All it takes, Shoup.

      On the flip side, guys like Dohnovan West, Kingsley Enagbare, many of the QBs, quite a few CBs (McCollum, Woolen, Jobe), etc, were all expected to go much higher than they did. Quite a few guys with 4th round grades based on consensus went undrafted. Happens all the time. Not sure how or why this is proving a difficult concept to understand - the draft media do a great job but its just a guide and NFL teams show all the time that they have different grades on a lot of prospects.

      Delete
    33. Whats crazy is all those guys who get graded as 4th or 5th rounders...but are just juniors and still choose to go pro. Like if you're just a JR and aren't getting a 1st round grade, stay for another season.

      Delete
    34. Yeah, someone is giving these kids some bad advice there.

      Delete
  14. Niners sign Jason Verrett, good deal, when healthy he is one of the best.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Perfect off the bench piece for the secondary. That should be his role.

      I'm hoping Brunskill gets beat out in camp so he can assume the swing RT/OG role.

      Delete
    2. Yes, Brunskill is versatile, I would include backing up the center.

      Delete
    3. After Day 2 of the draft, I posted this: "The 49ers absolutely must bring Jason Verrett back now!"

      So that's a FANTASTIC decision by the 49ers FO.

      I also want to reiterate something I posted about their 6th round pick (#221) - CB Tariq Castro-Fields out of Penn State. I think Penn State produces well coached defensive prospects, but I think the 49ers need to seriously consider moving Castro-Fields to Safety. I could be wrong, but I am not sure he has the change of direction skills to excel at CB, but I do think he has the size, athleticism and physical demeaner to play center field.

      Delete
    4. Verrett - "Perfect off the bench for the secondary"

      100% spot on! I love Verrett as a high level, veteran backup.

      Speaking of high level veteran backups, while I think Daniel Brunskill can be a versatile, high level backup at OT and OG, I think it's clear that he's a major liability at OC. Just my honest opinion.

      Delete
    5. I dont like it. It took Verrett a few years to recover from his last ACL injury and this is his second one. I don't imagine he will see the field this year tbh.

      Delete
    6. He's a vet minimum signing and not guaranteed a roster spot. As part of a competition I'm fine with it.

      Delete
    7. Ahh, I didn't look into that close. In that case I am good with it.

      Delete
  15. Scooter
    Are we seeing KS evolve from often injured 4.3s speed RB's like Matt Breida and Raheem Mostert, to a more durable RB that can still beat LB's to the edge, but also run inside zone and not spend much of the season on IR?
    IMO, drafting Aaron Banks and Trey Serman last year, indicated KS was changing his philosophy. It's the 2nd year the 9ers drafted a
    RB in Rd #3, rather than a day 3 pick like Ty Chandler. It will be telling to see how many reps Serman gets this season.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. GEEP, that's exactly what I have been saying in recent posts. The offense will change with Lance at QB. The read option works best with a RB that is more geared towards inside zone runs.

      Delete
    2. The only problem with this thought process is that TDP got nicked up in his one season as a starter. Perhaps its a one off but its something to be aware of.

      Delete
  16. I keep forgetting to mention this but didn't it seem like there was an exorbitant amount of hyphenated names in this draft?

    ReplyDelete
  17. Did no one see 49reasons outing himself as Anonymous?

    Pathetic.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Everyone on the blog understands 49Reasons is posting incognito as "Anonymous." But attacking him is counter productive, as it only enables him to respond and vent his frustrations. It should also be obvious that he's;
    A) Living his life vicariously thru the 9ers and has admitted it several times?
    B) Suffering from an OCD condition! He feels threatened by KS,
    who he considers incompetent, causing him to vent his obsession that KS is harming "HIS" 9ers and existentially, himself?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Just don't want him going back to his old ways where its post after post after post, with reply to his own post followed by reply to his reply followed by another reply. This isn't his personal echo chamber.

      And the continued attempts to post under fake profiles, or trying to post using one of our usernames is extremely childish and insulting.

      I think if he had just come back (even tho he lost a bet where he wouldn't be back until Feb 1 2023) and not gone off the deep end there wouldn't have been the pushback that he received and the deleting of his posts by the admins (thank you).

      Will see how this plays out now that we all know who is who and he even admitted.

      Delete
    2. As eMJay said, so long as he isn't taking over the blog with incessant posting and ranting I'm willing to give him a probation period (not sure how razor feels, but assuming similar thinking since neither of us have deleted his posts in recent times). We'll see how long it lasts.

      Delete
    3. Scooter
      Yea, I get that he can be insufferable!
      I'm just pointing out that (IMO), it's more effective to address our concerns to Razor, and let him handle it, than enabling an
      individual who's obviously neurotic

      Delete
    4. Scooter, that's my approach as well. As long as he behaves.

      Delete
    5. This the guy who was posting under catfished logins of other regular posters whom he disagreed with?? That would earn a FOAD if I were site moderator.

      Delete
  19. I think it starts with a excellent scouting departement.
    Sure the analytics are also a helpful tool for rating players.



    ReplyDelete
  20. 49ers News: Is Deebo Samuel coming around to returning to San Francisco?
    * So, I’d be surprised if they don’t make this work...I would suspect at some point, once Deebo realizes for sure that he’s not going anywhere. Once there’s no other recourse for both sides, then they’ll get together and work that thing out.”
    * We may have already reached that point because yesterday, both Deebo Samuel and his brother expressed interest in a possible deal getting done on social media.
    https://sports.yahoo.com/m/7a570f25-d908-3c5f-bba4-5df268ad0b87/49ers-news%3A-is-deebo-samuel.html

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Lombardi put it best, the WR market is reverting away from crazy. Its as if the league was heading for the cliff and is pulling back from it, and the Niners waiting it out (as they should) is going to bring Deebo back at a reasonable guaranteed price and cap hit. They will of course have all those bonuses and funny money to make the deal look ridiculous, but once we see the true numbers its going to be 20+ish a year and true guaranteed less than 50M (agents love to list injury guarantees as part of it). If you look at AJ's new deal, he has just one huge cap hit year (2024) at 27M (5.6 and 8.5 for the next 2 years). After 2025 Phili can opt out for a 15M dead cap hit vs a 22.6M cap hit, and the next season its 8.7 DC vs 37.6 Cap, so no way he's under this deal in 2026. Really, the cap is all that matters to the teams so if in 3 seasons Deebo has a similar cap hit of 28M, but costs just 5 and 8 for the next two, thats a massive win for SF and they'll gladly eat a 15M dead cap to gain 13M in cap space.

      Delete
    2. Yeah, its funny how these deals get described by agents/ the media.

      The Eagles will pay AJ Brown around $70M over the next four seasons. That's only $17.5M per year on average.

      The deal gets reported as 4 years, $100M, $25M per year because it only includes the new years (i.e. excludes the fact he is getting paid to play the year he still had on his existing contract, making it actually a five year deal for the Eagles) and includes a final year with a salary of over $30M to take the new money to $100M in total, even though it is money he is unlikely to ever see.

      Reality is it is a 4 year deal worth $17.5 APY. The 49ers can easily match and even best that with Deebo.

      Delete
    3. For context, and showing how crazy the Jaguars are, Christian Kirk will be getting $72M over the same period AJ Brown gets $70M.

      Delete
    4. And the Jags/Kirk are who really started this insanity. Dude should have been getting 40M over that time period, not nearly double.

      Then of course it went up and up with Devante, Tyreek and Stephon. If Tenn had just not sweated they'd have still had AJ and at a price similar to that of what Phili is paying. I get that they had a trade that made sense and cap wise is even better (but will the draft picks produce for the next two seasons as good as AJ will??) but they gave up a known commodity for unknown. If youre a fan or the team you hope it works.

      But for as amazing a talent as TO was, his departure wasn't the reason SF sucked and his arrival didn't net the Eagles anything more than a SB loss, and from there the teams the guy played on amounted to nothing. I highly doubt that AJ being in Phili is going to result in anything more than a better than not chance of the NFC East title, and if Deebo leaves SF is still in a good place in the West...but a lot better with him.

      Delete
  21. Jason Poe is a bit of a unicorn.

    The offensive lineman from Mercer stands 6'1" tall, weighs 300 pounds, and runs a 4.89 40-yard dash. He also put up 34 reps on the bench press, a 31.5" vertical jump, and a 9'3" broad jump.

    Jason Poe is an athlete.

    To hear him tell it, he's an interior offensive lineman slash fullback. And when you watch him run routes, you can see that he absolutely could profile at fullback. Just for reference, current 49ers' Pro Bowl FB Kyle Juszczyk ran a 4.77 40-yard dash at the combine at 6'1" and 235 pounds.

    The only knock on Poe as an offensive lineman is his relatively short stature and arms. However, that does not mean he doesn't have excellent tape out there. In fact, Mike Renner of PFF called him the best pulling guard in all of college football.

    Poe's height and arm length don't necessarily eliminate him from sticking at guard, and you can look no further than Shaq Mason, the eight-year veteran, formerly of the New England Patriots, who was drafted in the 4th round of the 2015 NFL Draft. Mason started 111 games for the Patriots before being traded to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for a 5th-round pick this offseason. The measurables for the two players are incredibly similar—though Poe has a considerable edge when it comes to strength.

    I genuinely believe Poe's athleticism gives him a real opportunity to compete for the right guard position on the 49ers' offensive line, but that athleticism also gives him an opportunity to be a chess piece in Kyle Shanahan's system. I could imagine him lining up at TE, in the backfield at FB—especially at the goal line, and as a possible ST contributor.

    The sky is the limit for Jason Poe and he is the most intriguing prospect of the 49ers' entire draft class...

    byBrian Renick




    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I believe one of the rest of us said it earlier...when the league is going small/fast, Kyles looking to exploit that with size and strength. Defenses won't be able to match up with an offense thats built to bully them (re:Rams) and its almost as if Kyle is trying to make this offense the new West Coast, taking advantage of the mismatch is styles but in the opposite way, whereas the NFL was all about big linebackers/o-line, blocking only TEs, straight ahead RBs and over the top/7 step drop passing...Walsh came out and flipped it, get your TEs to be receiving threats, play short passing that gets the ball out so quickly those slower LBs couldn't get in coverage in time, have athletic quicker oline(undersized even) who wouldn't tire out in a quicker offense, and RBs (& FBs) who could catch the ball as well as receivers and utilize a lot of motion.

      This is basically what Kyle is doing with this Niners team but reversed, a WR who lines up in the backfield/runs sweeps/draws, thunder&lightning RBs who can catch and bruise you with 25 carries a game (who has a bellcow RB these days?), bigger interior guys and a TE who will block as good as the best LT in the league.

      Can't wait to see it come together.

      Delete
    2. As far as the offensive line goes, Center might be his best chance.

      Delete
    3. Yeah, that's what I suggested might be happening the other day eMJay. With teams stacking their defense with lighter, faster players there's an opportunity to play a bit of bully ball on offense. Some of the selections by the 49ers the past two years suggest Shanahan might be looking to do just that.

      Delete
    4. You're right, who has a bell cow RB these days? This is another reason why taking Davis-Price in the 3rd round was such a puzzling pick at #93. I have a hard time believing he's not going to be sharing carries with Elijah Mitchell, and in fact I'd be surprised if Mitchell doesn't end up with more carries than this kid. So, even if NFL teams had this kid rated 3-4 rounds higher the rest of the experts, as Scooter has suggested, how can anyone justify the value of taking him at pick #93, when he'll be sharing carries with a 6th round pick?

      I like what Tyrion brings to the table (I want to refer to him as Tyrion for now on, because the Imp from Kings Landing was one of my favorite TV characters of all time), and I understand his fit, but I just can't get over where the 49ers chose to take him. If Mitchell hadn't emerged as one the top young RB's in the league last season, then I wouldn't be nearly as confused with this pick, even though I think #93 is still way too high for a RB with Tyrion's lack of production over his 3 college seasons, but again, I do like him as a player.

      What I really like about his game film, is that I see a bruising downhill runner who displays patience, and once he finds a lane, or a crease, he has the instant acceleration to blow through the first line of defense with a vengeance, and then enough top-end speed to brake away from LB's, and run past a lot of box safeties. Really impressive are Tyrion's RAS Composite Speed Scores, which is very exciting when you consider his running style. His 2.6 sec 20-yard split is obviously fantastic, but his 1.53 sec 10 yards split is incredible, especially when you consider Julio Jones' (220 lbs) 1.50 sec 10-yard split was considered pretty incredible before DK Metcalf ran a 1.45 sec 10-yard split, which was the fastest ever recorded at the NFL combine! Tyreek Hill recorded a 1.50 sec 10-yard split, and he some of the quickest acceleration I have ever seen out of an offensive player!

      The thing is, that's almost exactly the same guy Elijah Mitchell is, only bigger, and I'm not so sure that Elijah Mitchell isn't the better all-around RB, so why are the 49ers spending a 3rd round pick on Tyrion, as much as I like him, when Mitchell has already established himself as one of the most promising young 3-down backs?

      Tyrion Davis-Price is a very exciting prospect, but in terms of the draft, most people found the decision to make him their 2nd overall pick, with all of the premium talent at positions of much bigger needs for the 49ers still on the board, extremely puzzling.

      Delete
    5. Keep in mind, Elijah Mitchell recorded an official 1.51 10-yard split at 201 lbs, and Breece Hall, the 1st RB drafted this year, ran a 1.54 10-yards split. Does Tyrion have Elijah's long speed? No, but he's anything but simply a power back. His his long speed may not be elite, but it's plenty fast (4.48), and the most important thing is that he PLAYS FAST, sometimes looking like he's shot out of a cannon. With that, combined with his size, low pad level, and downhill style - always lurching forward after contact, he's got a lot more than power.

      Delete
  22. Lol, Deebo. He's now re-followed the 49ers on social media.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Can't stand this new generation and their pety/passive-agressive BS.

      We all knew he would sign a deal, stupidly tho I doubt Deebo realizes his unfollow/follow nonsense had ZERO, absolutely NOTHING, impact on the procedures other than piss of a lot of fans. Granted once he scores his first TD all is forgiven with those fans, but its just so childish...yet these dudes are being paid multimillions. The world is not right in a lot of ways.

      Delete
    2. eMjay
      It's not that I'm disagreeing with you about Deebo, and the young NFL deva's being childish. But lets not forget it's the
      old Billionaire boomers who are paying their multi million dollar salaries....And thereby enabling them!
      So yes, I agree with you. "The world's not right in a LOT OF WAYS!"

      Delete
    3. eM totally agree
      anonymouse - totally disagree - its the fans that pay the way. The fans do the enabling.

      Delete
    4. undercenter
      "its the fans that pay the way. The fans do the enabling."
      So it's a "FANS" name is on their paycheck, not a team owner? Learn something new every day!

      Delete
    5. Geep who pays the team? The game does not exist without the fans. If the fan's don't pay the team, then the team doesn't pay the player. It's called economics 101. The fan's are the consumer their spending habits dictate the economy. When the consumer gets fed up which they do at times the business expires. It's quite simple really.

      Delete
    6. If you bring up television revenue, who watches the boob tube? the fans, who buys the product advertised yup once again the fans.

      Delete
    7. I just hope for Deebo's sake this isn't just about the money. If it is he has employed one dumb strategy. 49ers have shown a willingness to pay their guys without tomfoolery. All he's achieved is running the risk of getting traded from one of the best teams in the NFL that knows how to maximise his talent.

      I'd be thinking about changing agents if I was Deebo. The contract he got for Brown wasn't that great relative to the market.

      Delete
    8. undercenter
      "If the fan's don't pay the team? Actually, then the team doesn't pay the player. It's called economics 101."

      SORRY, BUT THAT IS NOT THE WAY IT WORKS!
      A) The "FANS" buy products that Corporations sell. B) Corporations then use the profits, to pay the MEDIA, to advertise their products on TV.
      C) The MEDIA corporations then pays the NFL to broadcast NFL games to their fans.
      D) The NFL then divides the proceeds from TV advertising and distributes the money to the NFL team owners, who in turn have their employees (FO staff), sign NFL players to contracts.
      E) The NFL received ~$9.8 billion in national TV revenue in the 2020/2021 Season! Sponsorships from sports gambling companies, casinos and lotteries generated ~$1,8 billion in fiscal year ending March 31, 2021
      F) * NFL season ticket revenue made up only 1.25% of the league's total revenue.
      NOTE: The only team owned directly by "FANS," is GB!
      G) The NFL is an unregulated monopoly cartel.
      NOTE: A cartel is a group of competing firms that collude to act as a monopoly (one seller) and monopsony (one buyer).

      ECONOMICS 101: Introduces supply and demand concepts with basic economic graphs. Examines models of perfect and imperfect competition and determinants of production price and quantity. ((Also covers microeconomic issues such as the effect of government regulation and environmental problems)).

      Delete
    9. Ooof. As an economic consultant, this hurts me.

      Demand is the driver. Demand in this instance is set by the fans. They are the ones consuming the product. They are the ones providing the income, whether it be directly through attendance and merchandise, or indirectly through paying for tv subscriptions that then get passed onto the NFL.

      Delete
    10. Scooter
      As an economic consultant, you know, or should know: * "Demand is the driver of a "FREE MARKET" economy.
      * The NFL is an unregulated monopoly cartel without
      competition! (No competing league to which fans, or the media, can turn to if they don’t like the NFL).
      * As such, NFL fans aren't creating demand! Demand" is being artificially created by the NFL. The fans have no choice, their ability to view an NFL game of their choice, is dictated by NFL's ("a captured market.")
      * As a "fan," try watching your favorite team in a BLACKED
      OUT AREA!








      * "The fans do NOT do the enabling." TV revenu

      Delete
    11. Geep you're not seeing the trees for the forest.

      Fans are the direct source of revenue/income for the league and indirect via the media deals. Fox, CBS, NBC, ABC, ESPN...they all bid for and buy the rights to the NFL so they can sell advertising during that time slot to Pepsi, McDonalds, Ford, etc etc etc. Those companies buy the advertising slots to they can sell their products to...THE FANS.

      Its a massive circle. The fans are directly responsible for money into the teams by way of tickets, parking, concessions and merchandise. Thats how the fan money is direct.

      The indirect money is the way mentioned above, where the league sells rights to the networks who sell time slots to corporations who sell their products to the fans watching the game at home.

      Either way its our money that is paying for the teams and player saleries.

      Sadly if we all boycotted attending games in person because of costs (and use of income by team re: Diva or criminal players) the league would just charge more to the networks.

      Its frustrating because you got these guys getting insanely overpaid, yet the only response we hear is that if the teams paid the players less the teams would just pocket the rest...all the while charging $12 bucks for a damn Oscar Meyer weini (which should cost 2 bucks) and near $20 for a beer/coke (which should cost 4 bucks for a beer/ 1.50 for a coke). The league and teams are basically bilking fans with the costs of concessions, and lets not start with the cost of a ticket or parking! I mean, it couldn't be that they could possible charge less. And it aint even the NFL, look at the NBA and how a dude like Kyrie is going to make over 40M a year and he plays less than 75% of the games. Just cause teams have the money should they reward these divas? Why not give that back to the fans and make the experience more affordable?

      I get that players need money since their careers are 5 to 10 years at best for most...but then why did you get a free education at a 4 year university? Dudes should get a few million a year, sure, but at what point is a guy like Arod just being greedy? 40M for a guy who does nothing but throw a ball. Doesn't teach 30 kids. Doesn't develop life saving cures (or boner pills). Doesn't put his life on the line as a cop, fire or soilder. Hell, doesn't lead the most powerful country in the world (pres salary is 400k, ironic that Pres back in the early 1900s made equivalent to a few million in 2020 money).

      Its a greater issue about society, but players need to see that its a slap in the face to the fans, WHO DO PAY THEIR SALARIES, to act this way over a couple million dollars when the fans, for the most part, won't make that couple million dollar difference in their entire adult employment...and in reality most of these dude's were living off of (sometimes a lot) less than a 100k family income not but a few years earlier pre-NFL.

      Greed is a powerful sin.

      Delete
  23. eMJay and UC: An unknown is how much influence the agents have. You have to remember that these are young men who don't have experience with these kind of negotiations. The agents are paid to handle these negotiations and contracts. While, obviously, I don't know and we may never know, the agents may be guiding or suggesting some of these moves (i.e unfollowing the team on social media, etc.).

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Fair enough cubus and duly noted. I would prefer that he do what he is doing now, staying away, it's more of an Adult way to approach it then scrubbing his account - that's little kid stuff. He better grow up quickly as he is going to be paid millions of dollars and I am sure he has no experience with that either. Younger generation...smh

      Delete
  24. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  25. About Calvin turner that the Niners are bringing in

    ...Turner is a fascinating prospect because of his dual production as a runner and receiver in college. He’s listed as a running back, but he actually had as many receptions as carries in 2021. In two years at Hawaii he rushed 133 times for 647 yards and 12 touchdowns. He also caught 106 passes for 1,422 yards and 10 touchdowns. With such an emphasis on offensive versatility in San Francisco Watkins will get a chance to show off his full skill set in the tryout.

    --Kyle Madison.

    ReplyDelete
  26. Questions on the 9er roster, that need to be answered after draft.....
    * What's next for Deebo?
    * Who plays at center?
    * Who are the starting guards?
    * Who starts at strong safety?
    * What is Tyrion Davis-Price's role?
    * What's happening at cornerback?
    How these questions are answered, will determine 2022 success....

    ReplyDelete

Breaking

  Jeremy Fowler @JFowlerESPN · 2m Source: the #49ers and corner Deommodore Lenoir have reached a five-year, $92-million extension.