What should we expect the 49ers 'Draft Plan' to be?

By Scooter_McG

We're still quite some ways away from the NFL draft and there is still plenty of time for free agent and trade movements to shift draft focus. However, the more I've been thinking about this year's draft, and ruminating on the team's draft needs, the more I have come to appreciate the forward planning the team implemented in 2021. And it comes down to an old draft adage - draft for the future. 

There was some lamenting during the past season that the 49ers weren't getting enough of an immediate return from their 2021 draft class. There's is definitely some truth to that, as only one player (Elijah Mitchell) earned a starting role for most of the season and a number of the drafted rookies were either riding the bench or inactive for large portions of the season (including their #3 overall draft pick). And in an era where teams more and more often ask rookies to step in right away and not only contribute but be high impact players it was in some ways alarming to see (or not see, as the case may be) the contribution from the 49ers rookie class. 

But looking back now, even in the press conferences after players were selected the team made reference to how many of these players they anticipated were longer term investments that may take time to develop (especially guys like Lance and Thomas that didn't have much of an opportunity to play in 2020 due to COVID). Now as we look at the current state of the 49ers roster it becomes even clearer that the plan in the 2021 draft all along was to draft with an eye for 2022 and beyond. Just look at the first four picks the 49ers made:

• Lance was drafted with the intent of sitting him in 2021, a plan the team stuck with, and is all but guaranteed to be the 49ers starting QB this year, no matter that Jimmy Garoppolo still currently remains on the roster. 
• The team lost Laken Tomlinson and has not replaced him with a high priced free agent - indicating former Notre Dame LG Aaron Banks, the 49ers second pick last year, is expected to take over that role and play his natural left side position (rather than the RG position many thought he would earn in camp last year).
• The team took two RBs last year, much to the surprise of many, which now looks like a smart move with the departure of Mostert. Third round pick Trey Sermon spent much of last year in the proverbial dog house, however, in college he was a dynamic playmaker and home run threat that now stands to rise up the depth chart to complement Mitchell, the 6th round pick who exceeded expectations. 
• Despite many fans believing the team needed to draft a CB early, the team waited until the end of the third round and then draft Ambry Thomas, who sat out 2020. Thomas now looks likely to enter the season at least as the 49ers third CB, and depending on plans in the slot (and whether Moseley will be used there) may be expected to see a lot of snaps.  

And that just covers the first four picks. Day 3 picks Jaylon Moore, Talanoa Hufanga and Deommodore Lenoir may also be in line for considerable increases in snaps in 2022, with RT, SS and slot CB all in flux at the moment. 

So why do I bring this up? Well, partly to show that the 49ers "holes" may not be as great as some fear. But also to gain some insight on how the 49ers may look to approach the 2022 draft. It is common as a fan to look at the roster of the team you support and make presumptions of the players and positions the team may target based on areas that appear to be weakest right now. I know I am guilty of it. If we were to look at those areas right now, most people would probably say the team's biggest needs are some combination of OG, RT while McGlinchey recovers, SS and Edge. 

But when you then look at who they drafted last year and signed in FA... most of those positions already have guys the team has brought in to compete for those roles. 

If, rather than focusing on the areas that appear weakest right now, we turn our lens to the teams looming holes in 2023, how does that change what might be considered the 49ers draft needs? Well, some of that requires a bit of navel gazing and projection as to which players coming off contract the 49ers are likely to look to extend/ re-sign versus those they may let go. And going off how the team has operated in recent years if I had to guess how the team will approach those decisions it will be partly based on age and partly based on position value. 

I think it is safe to say extending both Deebo Samuel and Nick Bosa will be prioritised. Not only are they excellent players in the top tier of their positions in the NFL, they are entering their prime and play premium positions. If I was a betting man I would also say that Mike McGlinchey has a strong likelihood of being extended given age and the position he plays, though that will no doubt be a decision that is impacted by how he recovers from a very serious injury. With that in mind I doubt the team will look to invest a high pick at the position until they determine McGlinchey can no longer operate at a high level. 

One area that clearly will need some attention in the near future is edge. Even with Bosa likely being extended, all of the other notable edge players (Hyder, Ebukam, Omenihu and Willis) will be coming off contract after the 2022 season. While the team can probably retain some of those players without breaking the bank, it would behoove them to take advantage of a cheaper resource through the draft that can learn the ropes as part of a rotation in 2022. 

Some interesting decisions are also coming though for stalwart FS Jimmie Ward as well as CB Emmanuel Moseley. Ward has been a consistently good player for the 49ers for some time but is now on the wrong side of 30. He's at a point in his career where he can still likely get good money on the open market but on shorter term deals. Will the 49ers be willing to keep paying a premium on an aging safety, or will they look to get younger? Also, with Tarvarius Moore a FA at the end of the season, who will no doubt be in the mix for the SS role next to Ward this year, the 49ers could have both starters hitting the market. 

Moseley meanwhile has been a steady performer when healthy, and will be hitting free agency in his prime. With another solid season in 2022 his market should be strong. However, he also consistently misses time and the 49ers have now invested in Charvarius Ward and drafted Ambry Thomas last year. There has also been speculation that the team may look to move Moseley inside to slot CB this season when in nickel with Thomas playing opposite Ward. Slot CBs typically don't make as much as outside CBs and the 49ers may not be willing to pay Moseley outside CB money. 

Another looming hole from 2023 onwards (and potentially this year) is at center. Alex Mack is reportedly mulling retirement, and while I expect he will be back in 2022 the team also needs to be start planning for his replacement. Given how much Shanahan values the pivot, it seems likely that if the 49ers plan on replacing Mack through a drafted player that player will be drafted with an early pick. 

From the lens of looking at 2023 and beyond I think a strong case can be made that the biggest "needs" for the 49ers appear to be edge, center, safety and slot CB. I wouldn't be surprised in the least to see at least three of those positions drafted in the 49ers first four picks of the 2022 draft as part of the team's future planning.