By Scooter_McG
It's playoffs time! The 6th seed 49ers face the 3rd seed Cowboys in the first week of the playoffs, to reignite an old rivalry.
There's been a lot of talk this week about how the 49ers are the wild card team opponents least want to face, and with good reason. At their best they possess a potent offense that can hurt you multiple ways (finishing 7th in total yards this season), while the defense has been stingy, in particular the back half of the year, allowing the third least total yards on the season. The 49ers finished the season with the 6th best DVOA according to Football Outsiders, including 5th on offense and 7th on defense (special teams let them down ranked 26th). They also enter the playoffs as one of the form teams, winning 7 of their last 9 games, and are getting healthy at the right time.
But while the 49ers may be a dangerous team, the Cowboys should enter the game deserved favourites. They finished the season with 12 wins to easily take out the NFC East crown, and produced the most yards and points on offense in the NFL regular season. They also allowed the 7th fewest points in the NFL in 2021, and led the league in takeaways. This translated into the Cowboys finishing the season ranked first in total DVOA (6th offense, 2nd defense, 6th special teams). A team doesn't lead all of those categories without being very good.
I may be biased, but personally for me this looks like it should be the game of the weekend. Here is what I see as the keys to winning this one.
Take care of the football - but don't be afraid of the All Pro. This season has shown just how important avoiding turnovers is for the 49ers. A large reason for only scraping into the playoffs is a handful of games that were thrown away due to inopportune and very costly turnovers during games where the team otherwise statistically dominated.
But while it is always important, avoiding turnovers will be absolutely vital in this one. As I touched on above, the Cowboys are really good at taking the ball away, finishing the regular season with 34 total takeaways, good for best in the NFL, including 26 INTs. Throwing the ball against the Cowboys has proven to be a risky proposition.
11 of those INTs were made by All Pro CB Trevon Diggs. Typically, that should be a clear indicator the team should stay away from Diggs in this one. However, perversely, Diggs may be exactly the guy the 49ers should look to target. Along with those 11 INTs, Diggs has also given up the most yards by any CB not just this year, but in the past 16 years (according to PFF). He also tends to give up big plays, averaging 18.2 yards per reception allowed, with a lot of that being yards after the catch - a staple of the 49ers passing game. Diggs also leads the league in penalties among CBs.
In fact, the 49ers shouldn't just be willing to target Diggs in the passing game. They should look to attack him on the edges in the running game too, where he has been one of the worst CBs in the NFL this season in stopping the run.
Get Elijah Mitchell and the running game going. As the running game goes, so goes the 49ers offense. And Elijah Mitchell has been the guy that has been instrumental to the 49ers success on the ground. I think for the 49ers to win this one, Mitchell has to be carrying the ball at least 20 times and get close to 100 yards, to keep the 49ers offense on track throughout the game.
But it can't (and won't) just be Mitchell. He's the workhorse, the engine if you like, that gets the offense moving. But it will be equally important to get the ball in the hands of their most dynamic playmaker, Deebo Samuel, both as a receiver and running back.
Leaning on the running game will be doubly important given the Cowboys are the best team in the NFL in taking the ball away in the passing game, as outlined above. However, they are only a middling team in terms of stopping the run. They allow 4.5 yards per attempt on the season. Ball control will be essential for the 49ers to assist in avoiding costly turnovers.
Stop the run. This has been a huge part of the strong play of the defense in the second half of the 49ers season. The 49ers in fact lead the league in the second half of the season in terms of rushing yards allowed, especially if you exclude a 73 yard TD run on a fake punt. It will be imperative they are at their best again in this one to try and get the Cowboys in 3rd and long situations.
Potentially making the job a little easier is that Ezekiel Elliott has been a little banged up for the Cowboys. Despite playing all 17 games, since the Cowboys bye week in week 7, Elliott is averaging just 3.6 yards per carry and in 10 of the 11 games has recorded 52 yards or fewer. However, Tony Pollard has proven to be a difficult RB to slow down, averaging 5.5 yards per carry for a total of 719 yards on the season.
Tie the pass rush and coverage together. While making the Cowboys one dimensional will be important, it is the Cowboys passing attack that is the most dangerous. Dak Prescott has returned from his 2020 injury to have a stellar season, while the trio of WRs Lamb and Cooper and TE Schultz have each surpassed 800 yards receiving (with Lamb leading the unit with 1,102 yards).
The Cowboys suffered a big blow with the injury to WR Michael Gallup last week, who was rounding into form after missing the start of the year. But Cedrick Wilson Jr showed himself a capable fill in earlier in the year.
This will be a massive test for the 49ers pass defense, in particular the CBs. Expecting Moseley, Thomas and Williams to stop the Cowboys receivers seems like asking too much. It will therefore be important the 49ers pass rush has a big day, and replicates the performance they put up last week. That needs to be the standard they set themselves from here on out, really. If they can generate constant pressure then the 49ers DBs are good enough to generate some key stops and limit the Cowboys offensive firepower.
Go 49ers!
Ho Hum another Great write up by Scooter, meanwhile the sky is blue and water is wet. :D.
ReplyDeleteI would think this game will come down to a few areas of concern some of which Scooter covered.
1. Special Teams - I am the last person that says special teams are 1/3 of the game but in this game I think SF has to limit the damage. If they perform well and not give up big plays it will be huge.
2. Defense. This goes hand and glove with the pressuring Dak as Scooter mentioned above. They need to consistently get stops on 3rd down. This will feed into their ball control offensive strategy.
3. On offense, aside from the obvious not turning the ball over and scoring more points than Dallas :D. They need to wear out Dallas's D Line. This means they need to run over the likes of Gregory and Parsons.
4. Jimmy needs to convert on 3rd down and be a reason SF wins. I don't think a wash game from him gets this done for SF.
San Francisco by 10!
DeleteI think that is what scares me most. I'm confident that SF should win this game... and every, single time I have felt that way this year, SF has found a way to lose, be it Seattle, Arizona, or Tennessee.
DeleteShoup, we all know your pain but it feels like the team has all the right pieces in place at just the right time. Battle tested and they've yet to play their best football game. I think they make it to the NFC Championship game.
DeleteThanks Shoup and razor.
DeleteThis should be a great game. Can easily see it going either way.
Yea, McCarthy doesn't scare me one bit. He's an overrated HC that Fangio owned. They come from one of the weakest divisions in the NFL, have no playoff experience as a team and if the Cowboys can't run the football; they have no chance. Getting Hurst into the rotation on the DL should do nothing but strengthen our run defense.
ReplyDeleteThe 49ers lead the NFL averaging 6.7 YAC/reception. Conversely, the Cowboys defense allows 6.2 YAC/reception, which ranks 31st. Lmao!
ReplyDeleteYup -- this is the key takeaway for me when I studied the matchup.
DeleteThe magic incantation for Sunday:
Zorro 19/19
I meant: Zorro 18/19
DeleteThat's where I see the 49ers biggest advantage. As I outlined, Diggs in particular has been vulnerable to YAC.
DeleteYes, you put together a very good preview.
DeleteGood write up Scooter. My thoughts..
ReplyDelete1) Shanahan is known to attack aggressive defenses by using their tendencies against them...so I think we will take advantage of their aggressive rookies with lots of check downs at the line of scrimmage/screens & counters.
2) Special Teams is concerning. Especially with players like Wishnowsky, Trenton Cannon back from injury. This unit will be rusty at best and downright ugly at worst. Hope this unit is not the difference in this game.
3) Last time we played Dallas in 2020, We had Mullens throw 2 INTs and also had 2 Fumbles lost. 4 Total Turnovers and we lost 33-41. With a much improved Dallas team, I think even 1 turnover will be hard to overcome.
4) With the players in their best health at the right time (Knock on wood), will be interesting to see who is Inactive on gameday.
Go Niners 34 - 28!
What the hell happened to the Big Wishnowsky? His leg died!
DeleteThought he was in concussion protocol. May be out of it today.
DeleteYea, but before the concussion his leg died!
DeleteAnything less than the 6, yes count 'em 6, TOs the Niners committed in that 1981 NFCCG, the Niners have a good chance in this one. Oh wait that had a good chance in that one too.
DeleteYes, taking care of the ball is important, but one TO dooms them? Come on man!
Nah...that 1981 team had Joe Montana. This team has Jimmy! I rest my case. :)
DeleteYet Joe outdid Jimmy in that particular game - 3 INTs. But look at it this way, without Joe's carelessness with the ball, the team doesn't need his end of game heroics and we fans would have been deprived of the #1 piece of 49er lore.
DeleteI predict Elliot fumbles.
ReplyDelete31-16 Niners. The game was close till the opening whistle.
ReplyDeleteCowboys are one in five when they're held under 100 rushing yards. Tall task against this defense that's just been reinforced inside by Hurst.
Deleteif the Niners can jump on a two score (even 10-0) lead in Q1, I can totally see that kind of a score at the end.
DeleteHere's some historical perspective of the Niners-Cowboys playoff games (courtesy NBCSN):
ReplyDeleteTotal games played: 7.
Cowboys lead the playoff series 5-2.
Winner of 6 of those 7 games went to the Super Bowl.
Winner of the last 4 games won the Lombardi (1981, 1992-94) !
Man, an NFC Championship matchup of the Buccaneers vs. 49ers would be pure media Gould!
DeleteRazor that would mean the Niners go through the Packers, that would be three division winners on the road in a do or die scenario. To play a fourth division winner and the reigning SB champs to boot would be a quest never seen before and would be really difficult to ever duplicate again. In other words, for the Niners to get to the SB would mean winning four straight division winners on the road...I am with ya buddy!!!
DeleteWith the extra in season game I would expect defenses to wear down in the 2nd half of games as these playoffs continue. I think we're set up well to be able to wear down defenses with our running game, while at the same time possessing good DL rotation; not to mention adding a fresh run stuffer like Hurst.
DeleteGetting Hurst back could be huge. He's looked good whenever he has played.
DeleteScooter
ReplyDeleteAs usual, I enjoyed reading your write up.
* 9ers win with a FG and 2 seconds left on the clock!
Vikings have requested to interview Ryans for their HC position.
ReplyDeleteI would say "too soon", but then it seemed too soon for him to be a DC and he's done an excellent job, and grown as a DC over the course of the season. And I think he is definitely HC material.
Hope he stays for at least one more year.
Remember how New England Patriots' fans legitimately thought they were already back on top of their division, and ready to win more Super Bowls?
ReplyDeleteNow here they are, and if their fans are being honest about just how thoroughly the Buffalo Bills outclass them at the quarterback position, the more they need to be thinking about reassessing their quarterback position moving forward.
I don't care if he's a rookie or not, it is so glaringly obvious how far superior Josh Allen is to Mac Jones, and especially so in the cold weather, which is how football is played in the northeast after October.
It's not that Mac Jones can't play football, it's that he's so inferior to Josh Allen, especially during the winter months, that the Patriots are basically conceiding their division the the Bills, as long as the matchup at QB is Josh Allen on one side, and Mac Jones on the other.
It's not hard to outscore a QB who is still checking the ball down to his running backs, even with his team is down by 30 points with less than 12 minutes left in the 4th QTR.
It's no wonder that Mac Jones and his Patriots are about to be one and done, finishing the season 0-6 when giving up at least 25 points to their opponents, because it's not very hard to game plan against QB who is still checking the ball down to his running backs, down 30 points midway through the second half, especially when you have a QB like Josh Allen, and that's the conundrum for the Patriots now moving forward.
I don't know who is going to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl in the coming years, but I am very confident in saying that it won't be the Patriots as long as things stay the same in the AFC East in terms of the starting quarterbacks, and that's a problem for the New England Patriots!
Welcome back 49reasons!
Delete49 reasons?
DeleteOh, I get it, 49ers - 49Reasons. That's a very clever screen name.
Lmao!
DeleteMina Kimes
ReplyDelete@minakimes
The Dallas defense allows 6.1 yards/carry to teams using motion—3rd worst in the NFL.
San Francisco uses motion on 46% of their designed runs—most in the NFL.
Here's another related metric:
DeleteCowboys are 26th in defending explosive run plays (over 10 yards a run).
Cowboys corners are poor at tacking.
18/19 Zorro all the way!
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDelete49 reasons, all in a line
ReplyDeleteAll of them good ones, all of them lies
That just about sums up his posting history, Reasons obviously a CSN fan.