By Scooter_McG
This is it folks, the last week of the regular season is upon us and it's put up or shut up time for the 49ers in what is likely a do or die game against the rival Rams.
I'm sure you all know the scenario, but for a quick recap, the 49ers are currently in a playoff spot and if they win against the Rams they will finish in 6th position in the NFC. Even a tie is sufficient to see the 49ers through, though it may be in the 7th seed if the Eagles win their last game. But if the 49ers lose, then they will be relying on the Saints to either lose to or tie with the Falcons.
The Rams on the other hand have already booked their trip to the playoffs. However, they are unlikely to be taking things easy on the 49ers as the NFC West crown and a home playoff game is on the line. Similar to the 49ers, if they win they are guaranteed the division title. In fact a tie would be sufficient. But if they lose, then they are relying on the Cardinals to lose to the Seahawks or they would drop to second in the division and a wild card spot.
The good news for the 49ers is they have owned this matchup over the past three years, winning all five of their matchups (to date) over this period. In fact their game earlier in the season was a vital game in turning the 49ers season around, as they ran the ball down the Rams throats while Jimmie Ward and company forced Stafford and the Rams into two early turnovers (including a pick 6).
Jimmy G was the QB that day, but largely took a back seat to the running game as the 49ers had just 19 passes against 44 runs. JG was highly efficient though, completing 15 of those passes for 182 yards and 2 TDs.
This week we have been treated to a second straight week of debate around which QB should and will start, following JG's thumb injury vs the Titans. But unlike last week, JG has been able to be a limited participant in practice this week and has split reps with Lance. Shanahan has indicated he has made up his mind as to which QB will start, but will leave announcing the starter until game day. Just a little extra drama for this must win finale!
Here's what I will be keeping an eye on this week.
Does the QB even matter? As outlined above, last time these two teams met it was the 49ers running game that led the way. It wasn't a particularly explosive rushing attack that day, averaging just 3.5 yards per carry, but it consistently kept the 49ers in good down and distance, took time off the clock and sapped the Rams defensive energy.
Running the ball against the Rams wasn't a new strategy, either. In 2020 they ran the ball 37 times and 33 times in their two victories. In both of those two games they averaged under 3.5 yards per carry. In their first meeting in 2019, the 49ers ran it 41 times, again averaging under 3.5 yards per carry. In fact over the past three years they only had one game with less than 30 runs or more than 3.5 yards per carry - the second meeting in 2019 where they squeaked out a win despite Jimmy G throwing two INTs.
Of course one of the main benefits of this strategy is it limits the opportunities for Aaron Donald to embarrass the OL and get to the QB.
I don't expect this game to see the 49ers attack the Rams any differently to what we've seen in recent years. I expect the combination of Mitchell and Wilson to see lots of carries to keep the team on schedule, with Deebo getting a handful of carries looking for an explosive run. And with that in mind, it probably won't matter too much which of JG or Lance is under center (unless JG plays and is severely hindered from handling the ball and throwing).
Can the 49ers hit some explosive plays through the air if the Rams set their stall to stop the run? It took a while for Rams DC Raheem Morris to switch things up in their last meeting to provide extra bodies up front to stop the run. I don't expect it to take him long to do so this time around if the 49ers employ a similar strategy.
That's why I think it will be pretty important for the 49ers to hit a couple of decent gains in the passing game early, probably off play action. This will help keep the Rams defense from selling out entirely to stop the run and provide a little running room for the 49ers RBs.
Don't give Stafford time. Matthew Stafford started the season on fire, but has come back to earth a bit over the second half of the season. In fact his form started to turn around the time these two teams last met.
In his last 8 games he has thrown 11 INTs, including 6 in his last 3 games. By contrast, Stafford threw only 4 INTs during the opening 8 games. And it has largely been mistakes of Stafford's own making that have been the cause of his second half of the season woes. Yes, defenses have been putting pressure on Stafford, but then he excelled against pressure to start the season. Yes, the loss of Woods has hurt, but they still have Kupp and added OBJ. Stafford has simply been making mental errors and shown a willingness to throw it into coverage.
The 49ers need to take advantage of that this week. It's probably too much to ask for INTs on the Rams first two drives like in the last meeting, but the 49ers do need to take some of the opportunities Stafford has shown he is willing to give teams. And one way to increase those opportunities is to keep Stafford under pressure while only rushing four players.
Who will suit up in the secondary? Of course, it may be difficult to take advantage of Stafford's mistakes if the secondary is missing a lot of its players. While Moseley is back and Thomas has been taken off the COVID list, the team is still currently missing most of its secondary due to COVID. Shanahan has indicated he thinks the other secondary players on the COVID list have a chance to come off the list on Saturday, and they really need them to. In particular Ward and Williams.
Don't make mistakes!! Lastly, and most importantly, the 49ers can't afford another mistake-riddled game. This has to be one of the cleanest games they've played this season so as to not give the Rams any easy points or let-offs, and keep scoreboard pressure on the Rams. The 49ers have shown that so long as they don't make mistakes they can be a problem for any team.
Go 49ers!
"This is it folks, the last week of the regular season is upon us and it's put up or shut up time for the 49ers in what is likely a do or die game against the rival Rams."
ReplyDeleteAND THERE YOU HAVE IT 9ER FANS, IT'S TIME FOR THE FAT LADY TO SING AND THE 9ERS TO KICK BUTT AND TAKE NAMES!
George said this will be a body bag game. Let's make sure the majority of the bags are filled with Rams.
ReplyDeleteLT can't bend his arm. QB has a bad thumb on his throwing hand, our starting FS and NB are on the covid list. On paper, the Rams seemingly have the advantage this go around. Go Niners!
Seems like they do best when it's not expected!
DeleteHey Wine, yea they play better as the underdog.
DeleteTwo things that have to happen for any chance of victory.
ReplyDeleteThey have to run the ball; it doesn't have to be explosive runs. Long time-consuming drives, control the clock with the run game.
They have to pressure Stafford from the opening whistle to the ending whistle. Even when the Niners pass defense is healthy it still is suspect.
While SF has done well against the rams this is not a game I would bet on. Especially for fear of getting my heart broke twice. I lean towards the Rams winning and the Saints kicking us over the edge, given everything we know at this point.
ReplyDeleteThe sad truth is, if SF had taken care of business against the bad teams this year... they should be competing for the division title not a playoff spot. If they beat Seattle even once, don't blow the game against TENN or beat an AZ team without nearly half of their starters, this game is only about pride.
They have only themselves to blame should they miss the playoffs and I can't say I am sorry for them. Through, I really hope they can pull it out and we get to see a playoff run (even a small one) I am not sure this team deserves it.
Dont forget the Colts game. Was easily winnable as well. Head says Rams will win this, but heart says 49ers....Go Niners!
DeleteMugee,
DeleteWhile I agree, that was more of a tossup in my mind due to the weather. In a normal game I think SF wins it easily but the weather dramatically helped Indy IMO.
Rams lose, Saints lose, Cardinals lose would be a nice way to end the season. Seeing the Hawks under .500 makes me smile.
ReplyDeleteFrom your lips to gods ears :D.
DeleteLETS HOPE THEY'RE RIGHT! THE LAMS SUCK AND ANOTHER 9ER BLOWOUT WILL PROVE IT!
ReplyDeleteSB Nation Reacts: LA Rams fans lose confidence in team ahead of season finale.
Matthew Stafford’s three turnover performance—including his fourth pick six of the season—against the Tyler Huntley led Baltimore Ravens did not inspire much faith in the team.
According to the most recent polls on SB Nation Reacts, only 79 percent of the Los Angeles Rams fans believe the team is on the right path. That’s down from 93 percent last week.
https://sports.yahoo.com/m/0d774d73-09e8-3d61-9ccd-15785d6547ee/sb-nation-reacts%3A-la-rams.html
Ward would make winning this game so much easier. Through the 49ers' 5 consecutive wins over the Rams, the Goff/Stafford tandem are 4 of 18 for 45 yards, and 2 INT's when throwing into Jimmie's coverage.
ReplyDelete
ReplyDeleteMatt Barrows
@mattbarrows
·
4m
#49ers secondary ... restored
Jimmie Ward, K'Waun Williams and Dontae Johnson were taken off the COVID list today. Ambry Thomas was removed yesterday. Emmanuel Moseley was taken off IR.
Good deal, it was concerning.
Delete"#49ers secondary...restored" Who can help Stafford throw more int's, help Ram fans to lose even more confidence in him, and question why LA GM Snead traded Goff, 2 first and a 3Rd round draft pick for Stafford....
DeleteJG is going to be active...
ReplyDeleteThought I saw that Nate was going to PS, so by default that makes Jimmy active.
DeleteNext question, does he start.
I would think so, I can't see him backing up Lance, but one thing with KS you never know.
DeleteI can't read Shanny's poker face. Have no idea what his plan is. Seems like it will be both, but then he inexplicably scrapped that plan early in the season.
DeleteWe should have a full complement of our offensive weapons tomorrow. The Ram' defense is good, but they need to stop Deebo, Aiyuk, Kittle, Mitchell, Wilson, Jennings and hopefully Juszczyk (if Shanahan uses him in the passing game). This game may come down to which QB, the Rams (Stafford) or the 49ers (JG,TL) has the best game.
ReplyDeleteHoly cow guys, I just wanted to let you guys know that there is a very real chance that everything about my criticism of Kyle Shanahan, might be be flipped upside down and on it's head tomorrow, depending on how tomorrow's 49ers @ Rams game plays out!
ReplyDeleteRight now, I just read this headline:
"One name was absent from the list of roster moves—Nate Sudfeld. The practice squad quarterback was among the players protected this past week. He won't be active on Sunday, and it is unlikely the 49ers plan to carry just one quarterback into the playoff-impacting Week 18 matchup. That means San Francisco feels confident that Jimmy Garoppolo can play against the Los Angeles Rams and possibly even start. Rookie Trey Lance will be the team's other active quarterback.'
Well .... WOW, just .... WOW!
I almost don't believe what my eyes are reading, but here it is in black and white, and boy oh boy, this is really something!
Let me just tell you guys that this might change my entire opinion of Coach Shanahan, AND I DON'T SAY THIS LIGHTLY! In my mind, THIS IS EXACTLY THE KIND OF DECISION MAKING that has led me to the conclusion that Kyle Shanahan is simply unable to make logical decisions because he's driven by the group of interconnected structures located deep within the brain, called his LIMBIC SYSTEM!
The whole idea of only having TWO active QB's, one of which is just a small amount of contact to his thumb (which could happen even with his own RB's or OL's), away from not only being in EXCRUCIATING PAIN, but also COMPLETELY UNABLE TO PASS THE FOOTBALL even 10 yards downfield!
Could it be 100% Kyle's LIMBIC CORTEX? This is a part of the brain that contains two structures, the Cingulate Gyrus and the Parahippocampal Gyrus - which together impact mood, motivation, and perhaps most importantly, impact JUDGEMENT?
Whatever it is, this is such an amazing situation, that I am about to go out on a limb and make a couple of ABSOLUTE STATEMENTS, and a REAL PROMISE to you guys, about the way in which I will respond directly to this decision by Kyle Shanahan!
Because this is aa historically important decision for Kyle, and the 49eers, so I am going to make you guys a couple promises, that I will list below -
If JG starts it will be because JG, the medical staff and the coaching staff believe he can throw the ball effectively despite the injury. No other reason.
DeleteThat's true Scooter, but just so we are clear, Kyle can decide NOT to play Jimmy tomorrow, no matter what the medical staff says, right?
DeleteAnd I hope we can also agree that, if Kyle does chose to play Jimmy, and Jimmy does end up playing poorly and the 49ers subsequently end up losing the game, and miss the postseason, that this would be a HUGE blow to Kyle's legacy?
I guess that's the point I've been trying to make. It's funny after our back and forth yesterday, that I woke up to this headline today, from SBNation's XAVIER DIXON:
"WHAT DOES THE SEASON FINALE MEAN FOR KYLE SHANAHAN'S LEGACY? - Kyle Shanahan has been sheltered from expectations year after year."
https://www.ninersnation.com/2022/1/8/22870607/what-does-the-season-finale-mean-for-kyle-shanahans-legacy
This line in particular really grabbed me, because of our conversation yesterday -
Dixon: "I use the word legacy because this could be a wasted year if San Francisco falls short of the playoffs. Shanahan has continued to be protected from expectations after being crowned as a 'remarkable play-caller'."
I think for me, the one theme that has really come into focus for a lot of 49ers fans this season, is that UNDERACHIEVING is becoming a CHRONIC THEME for Kyle Shanahan's 49ers ....
and as Dixon also wrote: "Last year the revenge tour failed as injuries sheltered the idea of the 49ers winning many games. However, San Francisco has had enough talent on the field week in and week out to be in the playoffs this year. Despite the hobbled running back room, this offense could be argued as Shanahan’s most talented through his Niner tenure."
"There ARE NO EXCUSES for missing the playoffs this season, which means they have to get the job done Sunday against the Rams!"
I can hardly wait, Scooter!
Again, I'd be shocked if Jimmy plays.
DeleteSo I am a little confused as to why there are reports that Sudfeld won't be active tomorrow, based only on the fact that he wasn't "protected" as a practice squad player this week. I don't think the fact that he isn't "protected" means he's excluded from being activated tomorrow, so that's why I am confused about the report that Sudfeld won't be activated ahead of the game tomorrow.
I think this is probably a RUSE! If it is true that he won't be activated, it sure seems like this entire RUSE could end up backfiring on Kyle!
If Jimmy Garoppolo starts tomorrow's game for the 49ers, and the 49ers end up winning the game, EVEN if Jimmy plays poorly, as long as the 49ers win the game, not only will I publicly apologize to Kyle on this blog, but I will also officially stop posting on this blog until the 2022, NFL draft at the earliest, and even then I will only post the occasional brilliant take.
ReplyDeleteI give you guys my word on this!
I mean, it's crazy to think about how much could be riding on this decision, for both the 49ers, as well as KYLE'S LEGACY!
However, the thing about this decision is .... not only does it have the potential to end being a DROP THE MIC ending for Jimmy Garoppolo, and his run with the 49ers, even if the 49ers end up getting eliminated early in the playoffs!
If Jimmy is able to tape up his thumb, perhaps take a couple injections, and then come out and win this MUST-WIN game for the 49ers, with a torn ligament in his throwing hand, he'd be setting the stage for a story book ending of his 49ers career, and that would allow Jimmy to DROP THE MIC on his run as the 49ers QB, no matter how far this team gets in the playoffs this season!
However .......
It could also end up being the exact opposite of what I have outlined above!
Instead of Jimmy setting the stage for what would be a brilliant, almost HEROIC end to his 49ers career, while his winning legacy while putting to rest most of the criticism that he has endured since tearing his ACL in 2018, it could end up VALIDATING every ounce of criticism Jimmy has been forced to endure. IF Jimmy plays, and he plays poorly, and the 49ers end up losing this game, this could be the game that breaks the camel's back in terms of Jimmy's legacy, and it would instead validate every ounce of criticism that Jimmy has ever received over the years, in regards to everything from his inconsistent accuracy from game to game, to his utter INNABILITY to stay healthy, which is so vital for an NFL QB!
And for me, that's what makes this decision so fascinating! It does appear that Kyle may be making yet another EPICALLY POOR DECISION, IMO, and it could potentially be such a poor decision that it would likely cement his status as a great offensive play designer/play caller who is simply unable to set his emotions aside in order to make the kind of logically sound decisions that are required of NFL Head Coaches who have the same kind of immense organizational power as the 49ers top decision maker!
Because IF KYLE STARTS JIMMY GAROPPOLO, and Jimmy ends up playing poorly and costing the 49ers the game, and the Saints come away from Atlanta with a win .... this decision could go down as one of the worst decisions a 49ers HC has ever made, in the history of such a storied franchise! And if this happens, I expect Jed York to make some changes during the offseason to limit Kyle's say in terms of personnel decisions moving forward!
We'll see how this plays out tomorrow! This entire QB situation is absolutely fascinating no matter how it ends up turning out, but for Kyle's sake, I sure hope he doesn't end up shooting his Niners' legacy in the foot, because it could be catastrophic for both him, and the 49ers!
For the record though .... I'd still be shocked if Jimmy does end up playing tomorrow, which makes this entire situation that much more confusing, and head-scratching, IMO!
DeleteMaybe this is Kyle recognizing that he can no longer use Jimmy's injuries as an excuse for his team's underachieving over the last 4 years?
ReplyDeleteI don't know.
All I know is that it seems very irresponsible to only have two active QB's in a game of this magnitude, knowing one of those QB's has a RUPTURED ligament in his throwing hand.
Don't you think?
Do you guys have any idea how painful it would be for Jimmy if, god forbid, he ends up re-injuring the same thumb? OMG, there are so many nerves in that part of the human body, that pain would be almost unbearable!
And, BTW, while there are technically more nerve ending on the soles of our feet (1300 per Sq inch) there is also a theory in Neuroscience that would suggest that our brains interpret pain signals from our hands on a higher level of sensitivity.
DeleteIn other words .... if Jimmy's right thumb gets hit, or perhaps caught on a jersey or something to that effect, he will likely be in a world of hurt!
Starting Jimmy who has a great record against the Rams but isnt barely 80% and isnt consistent VS Trey Lance who only got 2 starts but improved big after in game reps isnt imo a hard choice to made.
ReplyDeleteI would officially started the Trey Era after the Texans game.
This Jimmy G situation reminds me like what happened after the Harbaugh mutual split.
ReplyDeleteEnough of this tiresome and interminable Jimmy - Trey stuff.
ReplyDeleteIt's RAMS Week and I've listened to Ronnie Lott declare on KNBR that the Niners will own them once again.
I'm ready!
The Rams have a couple of 5 game streaks going. Niners will end their winning streak and extend the losing to the Niners to 6.
DeleteFive of the Niners seven loses have been by one score or less. One of the other losses was to the Colts where Shanny was outcoached. The other was that miserable loss to the Cards where the entire team from the owner to the jock carrier sucked.
ReplyDeleteFangio gone in Denver
ReplyDeleteI get the fact that Kyle can easily give Jimmy G the QUICK HOOK if he needs to, but I still think it's crazy to start Jimmy, especially with his track record while injured.
ReplyDeleteI absolutely hate the idea of starting Jimmy ahead of Lance, with such a significant injury.
In fact, and I am going on the record one last time about how bad this decision is for the 49ers playoff hopes, and if this backfires and/or the 49ers end up losing this game, I think Kyle deserves a lot of blame and very harsh criticism!
But like I said, guys, if Jimmy starts, and plays well enough for the 49ers to win the game, I WILL PUBLIVALLY APPOLOGIZE TO KYLE, I will reassess his 49ers legacy up to this point, especially if they do end up winning this game, and I WILL GET LOST, AND STOP POSTING ON THIS INSPIRED 49ERS BLOG, UNTIL THE 2022 DRAFT AT THE EARLIEST!
No Trent Williams? If so that is the ballgame. Go Falcons!
ReplyDelete