By Scooter_McG
Week 4 sees 4th placed (in the NFC West) Seattle come to Levi's Stadium off the back of consecutive losses, facing a 3rd place 49ers team looking to bounce back from its first loss of the season against the Packers. This rivalry always brings a lot of emotion and with both teams looking to keep in touch with the currently undefeated Rams and Cardinals this game will likely have some extra spice.
In some ways these two teams have been polar opposites through three weeks. The Seahawks have been fast starters in games but failed to close out the past two games in the second half. The 49ers on the other hand have gotten off to slow starts and in the past two games have failed to score in the first half until the dying minutes, but have been better in the second stanza.
In this one, I suspect if the 49ers get off to another slow start it could be a tough ask for them to bring it back for a win. At worst I feel like they need to keep it close through the first half, if not go into half time with the lead.
Here are the matchups I see as being key in this one.
49ers secondary vs Seahawks receivers. This is probably the biggest mismatch in the contest. The Seahawks receivers, led by Lockett and Metcalf, look far too good on paper not to dominate a 49ers secondary missing Verrett and likely Norman. And given Russell Wilson's penchant for making the 49ers pass rush look foolish and keeping plays alive the 49ers secondary will likely be in for a torrid afternoon. But if the 49ers secondary can play above expectations, and make some key stops in critical moments, it could go a long way to giving the 49ers a chance to win this one.
49ers pass rush vs Russell Wilson. Against the Packers the 49ers pass rush really failed to make much of an impact. A large part of that was how quickly Rodgers got the ball out, but also some a nice game plan by LaFleur that involved chipping Bosa and Ford at every opportunity to derail the pass rush plan and give Rodgers some extra breathing space. Wilson poses a different kind of threat, in that he is often at his best when holding the ball and extending plays. The 49ers need to do a better job than last week in beating offensive scheme designed to slow down the pass rush, but also make sure they don't fall into the trap of attacking inside and allowing Wilson easy opportunities to break contain and extend plays. This will be a big challenge for the pass rush this week, and a matchup they really need to win to give themselves a good chance of victory.
49ers 1st down offense vs Seahawks 1st down defense. A big reason the 49ers have had slow starts the past two weeks has been an ineffective ground game that has led to a lot of 3rd and longs in the early going. The 49ers absolutely must find a way to reverse this trend in the first half against the Seahawks, whether it be through the running game or passing game, to keep the offense ahead of schedule and not allow the Seahawks to tee of against Jimmy G on 3rd and long situations.
Potentially helping matters, the Seahawks defense has so far struggled to contain opposing offenses, giving up the most yards in the NFL through three games, including the third most yards on the ground, while struggling to get to the QB. The damage RBs have been doing against the Seahawks goes beyond the running game - the Seahawks have also given up the most yards to RBs in the passing game as well through three weeks, including many screens. This could be a great opportunity to get the 49ers offense rolling through a diverse assortment of running and short passing game, using the plethora of dynamic athletes the 49ers boast on offense.
Of course, the same was said about the Packers defense last week.
"Of course, the same was said about the Packers defense last week. "
ReplyDeleteAs I was reading your article, I kept thinking that the same thing was said about the Packers. And then you confirmed my thoughts with that last statement.
I hope Ryans tightens up the line and has a nose tackle on or over the center.
The 49ers really need to find a way to take advantage of what looks like a weak Seahawks defense.
DeleteAnd yeah, got to tighten up the run defense while also not allowing Wilson time or escape lanes. Basically, time for the DL to step up and be the dominant group they were heralded as being before the season started.
Scooter,
ReplyDeleteAs always, another good preview. While I agree that the 49ers pass rush needs to at top firm, I still recall how Wilson found ways to beat us against the likes of Aldon Smith and the big Cowboy, Justin Smith.
Wilson has hurt us when running out of the pocket and throwing and finding creases in the middle of the Dline for defense crushing runs.
With regards to the occasional runs up the middle, perhaps Harris can key on Russell throughout the contest. Lining up Bosa and Ford in more wide 9 alignments could help keep Wilson in the pocket.
My margin for victory will need to come from the offense in this game.
Seattle will get their scores. But the 49ers have to score early or we may see another game that's won in the final seconds by the opposing team.
Wilson will be almost impossible to contain completely. But they need to find a way to limit the damage and not let him beat them consistently. Have to find ways to make stops. And easiest way to do that is to not allow Wilson to have easy escape lanes to extend plays and make back breaking big plays downfield.
DeleteI agree about the offense - that is what I was referring to in the last paragraph before getting into the matchups, as well as the last matchup re 1st downs.
If the 49ers are going to beat the Seahawks, they're probably going to need to score more than 25 points. This isn't going to be a low scoring, defensive game!
DeleteThe Seahawks offense is Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. In the first half of games they're are tops in the league. In the second half they fall off a cliff. Wilson's weakness is the short to intermediate routes. Play 2 deep and force him to throw wide and short, and the 49ers can win this game.
ReplyDeleteWilson has been the moonshot ace this season. However in years past he's killed the Niners with rollouts and short passes in the flat. Don't believe me, replay that 11/11/2019 Monday night game. The last thing I want to see is hawks marching up and down the field using those plays.
DeleteOff topic but teams starting rookie qb's are 1-11 this year.
ReplyDeleteI have Seattle winning this game fairly easily. I just don’t trust this defense against Russ. Even if the offense does well... which I think they will, they just don’t have the weapons to win in a shootout if their run game isn’t working.
ReplyDeleteEasily? Most unlikely. Seattle will come out guns blazing. If the 49ers can go to halftime within a score I think they'll win the football game.
DeleteI tend to agree with Shoup, IF the 49ers keep running the same offensive scheme we've seen so far this season. This is not going to be a defensive battle, IMO, and the 49ers aren't going to be able to outscore the Seahawks unless they open their offense up.
DeleteScooter
ReplyDeleteAs always, I enjoyed reading another good match up analysis.
* 49ers secondary vs Seahawks receivers: Who will be the 9er starting CB's? Lenoir will be one but who will be the other two? Buster Skrine? Dre Kirkpatrick? Ambry Thomas?
Dontae Johnson? Will Josh Norman be available?
* Wilson to his WR's Lockett and Metcalf, looks to be the Seahawks biggest advantage and I don't see the 9ers having the CB's capable of preventing both from having big games.
The 9er pass rush will need to put pressure on Wilson, to help out the DB's and keep the 9ers in the game.
* Is running back Elijah Mitchell healthy enough to play? How many touches will RB Trey Sermon get? RB Trenton Cannon,
is he only special teams, or will he be given a chance to see what he can do?
* What are KS's plans for Trey Lance against Seattle? If the 9ers have another slow start, will he get more reps?
The 9ersd have lots of questions that should get answered in the Seattle game and looking ahead, to the game against Arizona.
Seattle is desperate for a win. If this game comes down to the wire, I'd be a little queasy with Shanahan' clock and play management. In a close game, Wilson has the advantage over any defense.
ReplyDeleteI'll be honest, I am worried about this game. I am afraid that Settle is going to take a page out of Green Bay's defensive playbook. And that's now my biggest concern moving forward.
ReplyDeleteYou can’t run the same scheme year in and year out without making some significant changes along the way. For example – look at Sean McVay. He makes significant changes to his scheme every season, in order to take mold his system around the strength of his personnel.
If you guys haven’t noticed, defenses have been catching up to Kyle. That’s the way the NFL works. As the saying goes: “Defensive Coordinators get paid as well”
The NFL is constantly evolving, and the best teams are the teams that successfully evolve along with it.
I, along with many other 49ERS fans, was led to believe that we were going to see Kyle evolve his scheme this season. The idea in the lead up to drafting Lance, was that Kyle could take his offense to a new level, with a mobile QB who also happens to have a cannon for an arm.
Trey Lance runs like a “jacked gazelle” … he wont run away from every defender, but he might just run through them!
And the best part is .... you don’t even need to run him very often. You just need to ESTABLISH THE FACT THAT HE IS A THREAT AS A RUNNER! Once you do that, it opens everything up. It unlocks the next phase of offense. But with Trey Lance, it goes even further than that. Trey also has a very strong arm, so unlike Jimmy, Trey can consistently stretch the field both vertically, and horizontally. How would the league defend against an offensive mastermind like Kyle Shanahan, when he now has a mobile, big-armed QB?
Don’t you guys get this? That's what needed to happen THIS season.
If you guys are fine watching defenses clamp down the 49ers offense like a boa constrictor this season, then fine, be happy with Jimmy G. at the helm. I’M NOT! I’ve seen enough of his limitations to know that it's only going to get harder and harder to produce offensively, when you have a QB with such a limited skill-set! That’s the thing you guys seem to be missing with your analysis. And now that their defense looks to have taken a step back, especially compared to 2019, the days of the defense carrying Jimmy’s water is probably over, at least for this season.
If you guys don't want to put it all on the rookie's shoulders, fine, then let's run a 2-QB system. When Bill Walsh used Joe Montana as a rookie, he allowed Joe to play for a full series. He didn't bring him in for a play here, and a play there.
DeleteBut if you guys are happy with a 3-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust style offense, well then, more power to you!
DeleteThis isn't rocket science guys! It's really very simple.
DeleteIf defenses don't respect your downfield passing attack, they'll just slowly but surely smother your rushing attack.
Here's a fun analogy: It's kind of like fighting the great MMA Brazilian Ju-jitsu artist - Royce Gracie, back in the mid-to-late 90's. I don't know if you guys are familiar with him?
If you couldn't knock Gracie out, he'd slowly, but surely, tie you up into a thousand knots, and choke you out, if your were lucky enough not have him break your individual limbs, one limb at a time.
And what was really funny is that Royce Gracie was a skinny dude, going up against hulking MMA fighters.
DeleteBut MMA fighters adjusted.
Back in the 1990's MMA fighters all had their own individual fighting styles. You had your boxers, and hand-to-hand combat fighters. You had your kickboxers, and wrestlers. Mui Thai fighters, and Karate guys.
But then became clear that, as the sport evolved, guys became more well-rounded fighters, and if you wanted to remain competitive you could no longer be a one-dimensional fighter with one specific fighting style.
There, that's my analogy of the day, lol.
49,
ReplyDeleteWe will need a strong running attack tomorrow in order to keep Seattle' defense on their toes.
Losing Mostert was huge. He had the home run ability that kept defenses on skates. This is missing from our current RB' and Shanahan has to compensate in other area's of the offense to help mitigate the crucial loss of Mostert. Eli Mitchell showed promise until he injured his shoulder. Sermon has yet to get untrackred and Cannon is getting up to speed on the playbook. This may be a good game to give Lance more snaps and allow him to throw as well. At the moment we just don't have the horses in the backfield to grind out a win.
AES,
DeleteNo question that the Mostert injury was a game changer. And missing Jeff Wilson doesn't help either. But, both those guys have a history of being injury prone, right?
There was a perception that: "you could plug any RB into Kyle's system and have success", right?
DeleteAnd that was probably kind of true a couple years ago, but defenses have caught up, IMO.
Yes. Mostert and Wilson have had some long-term injury issues of late. But part of the current issues with the running game is that we are replacing them with rookies.
ReplyDeleteI still believe that Mitchell and Sermon can flourish in this system as well as Hasty when he comes back. But Mitchell will need to get healthy and Sermon will need to learn to be a better north and south RB rather than try to dance. Shanahan needs to have a strong plan B if running game falters tomorrow. Coming up big when key players are lost is where he can really show his coaching chops, IMHO.
That's fair, AES. I think you have more confidence in Jimmy than I do at this stage, and that's fine.
DeleteThat's a great point about Kyle needing to show that he can adjust his plan. I'm interested to see if he can.
I guess that's what the best HC's do, right?
DeleteI haven't seen Kyle adjust when he's had a backup QB, so I'm curious to see what he can do without his best RB's.
Shanahan has won 2 games with Wilson and Mostert out. And Jimmy G brought the team back from a 17 point deficit last Sunday, so I wouldn't count out JG leading the 49ers to a win against the Seahags. My keys for tomorrow are, the 49ers offense scoring early. And, not putting themselves in position where they have to win a very close game late in the 4th QTR.
ReplyDeleteThe Seahawks have the worst offense in the league in the 2nd half.(Points per drive)
DeleteRazor,
ReplyDeleteYes they do. But they also have a psychological edge over the 49ers that has been in effect during the Russell Wilson era.
Do you see a 49ers blowout win based on this?
"The Seahawks have the worst offense in the league in the 2nd half.(Points per drive)"
No but if they win the coin toss, defer and are within a score at halftime; I like our chances.
DeleteHere's a match-up that Niners will win -- and something to cheer up the fans:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ueCeAFsZDco
I was fortunate to get to see him play in person against Detroit.
DeleteThe question is how ugly is this game about to be? Let’s hope Lance isnt as inaccurate when he settles down.
ReplyDelete