Friday, April 9, 2021

Examining the fit: Nate Sudfeld

By Scooter_McG

The 49ers recently made an addition to the QB room, signing Nate Sudfeld. Sudfeld is a big QB at 6’6” 235lbs, but is not mobile and is more of the traditional drop back pocket passer. He played college football at Indiana, where he was a 3-year starter from 2013 to 2015, plus a relief starter his freshman year in 2012 due to injury. Over his college career he passed for 7,879 yards, with 61 TDs and 20 INTs.

Entering the 2016 draft, the scouting report on Sudfeld was that he had the arm talent to make any throw, with the ability to make some elite level throws but maddening inconsistency due to issues with his mechanics, in particular relying too much on being an arm thrower rather than throwing with hip torque. Key strengths were his intelligence, anticipation/ timing and pocket presence, while key weaknesses were his lack of athleticism, inconsistent accuracy and zip, and too many instances of misreading defenses and not reading underneath coverage in the middle of the field. In short, Sudfeld profiled as a backup calibre QB and a lower end version of the starting QBs that Shanahan has typically worked with.

He was originally drafted in the sixth round of the 2016 draft by the Washington Football Team, but never played a snap for them and was waived ahead of the 2017 season. The Eagles signed him soon after, and has been on their roster until this offseason. During this time he saw limited action, attempting just 37 passes (25 completions) for 188 yards, with 1 TD and 1 INT.

Despite limited game time, like Garoppolo, Sudfeld boasts a Super Bowl ring having been the active backup QB to Nick Foles in the 2017 season Super Bowl. He was also thought of highly enough by Doug Pederson that they gave him a second round tender as a RFA in the 2019 offseason, and brought him back once again last offseason.

The move by the 49ers to sign Sudfeld was something of a surprise given the 49ers already had Garoppolo, Rosen and Johnson under contract, and are expected to draft a QB at pick #3 in the upcoming draft. At first this seemed likely to simply be a camp arm signing, however, when news of the contract details broke it was revealed Sudfeld’s contract includes $252K in guaranteed money. This, perversely, makes him the only QB currently on the roster with any guaranteed money owed in 2021.

A potential factor in the 49ers signing Sudfeld may have been Rich Scangarello, who was with the Eagles last year as a senior offensive assistant. Scangarello will know what Sudfeld brings to the table and how he fits within what Shanahan wants to do. I wouldn’t be surprised if Scangarello sees a little of Nick Mullens in Sudfeld, but with a stronger arm, which makes him a valuable backup option.

However, I find it difficult to believe this move changes anything with regards to what the team is thinking when it comes to Garoppolo. Sudfeld doesn’t profile as a bridge QB – he is to date a career backup and has not shown the traits to be a guy you can rely on to win games over a stretch of time.

After reviewing the player, I see Sudfeld as competing with Rosen and Johnson for a spot on the 53 as the third QB, that can be the backup QB on game day until the rookie is ready. Given his guaranteed money, I think the 49ers believe Sudfeld has a decent chance of winning that battle.

43 comments:

  1. He has guaranteed money makes him more then a camp arm.

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  2. Alas, poor Rosen. We knew him well.

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    Replies
    1. Possibly, Shakespeare, or they like Rosen and are paving the way to trading Jimmy.

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  3. Attempt Share Completion % Accuracy Placement
    Justin Fields 19.09% 69.05% .881 .724
    Trevor Lawrence 16.99% 43.40% .842 .709
    Trey Lance 16.61% 64.71% .885 .516
    Kellen Mond 16.55% 52.08% .617 .498
    Sam Ehlinger 14.37% 47.13% .601 .442
    Zach Wilson 14.20% 59.57% .851 .686
    Kyle Trask 13.95% 40.68% .792 .462
    Davis Mills 12.18% 56.76% .764 .519
    Jamie Newman 10.76% 38.24% .687 .473
    Mac Jones 9.72% 31.58% .526 .197

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  4. Scooter, thanks again for your articles.

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  5. Scooter: "After reviewing the player, I see Sudfeld as competing with Rosen and Johnson for a spot on the 53 as the third QB, that can be the backup QB on game day until the rookie is ready. Given his guaranteed money, I think the 49ers believe Sudfeld has a decent chance of winning that battle.
    Yep! That pretty well sums it up...I agree.

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  6. A couple of thoughts:

    1) $250K seems like chump change to me and I wouldn't read anything into that guaranteed amount in terms of Sudfield's future on the team.

    2) If the 49ers are going to draft a "mobile" QB (i.e. Fields or Lance) and that mobile QB winds up playing (maybe because Jimmy G is traded), then who replaces that mobile QB if he goes down with an injury? Is Josh Johnson the backup for the mobile QB if one is selected, or does KS insert a "non-mobile" backup and adjust the plays accordingly (Johnson will be 35 years old in 5 weeks). What stress does such a switch put on the rest of the offensive team?

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    1. Might be chump change but because it's guaranteed, and both Johnson and Rosen don't have a penny guaranteed, Sudfeld will be on the team in some capacity. Whether that's the 53 or part of the practice squad, it's anybody's guess but it sure looks as if the 49ers have placed their bet on Sudfeld over Rosen and Johnson to make the team.

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    2. @Razor:

      I don't know; the guaranteed amount is so small. Isn't it just as likely that Sudfeld and his team requested the small guarantee and the 49ers just decided to pay it because they wanted to check him out because for some reason KS is interested in him.

      Just given the massive salary cap, the $250K seems like an amount they agreed upon to "kick the tires". I don't see why he gets an advantage over Rosen.

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    3. Cubus, it tells me they don't believe Rosen is better than Sudfeld. Rosen was in glass to be broken in case of emergency. They went out and handpicked Sudfeld on the qb coaches recommendation.

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    4. Cubus, the guarantee doesn't guarantee anything in terms of a roster spot, that is true. But you don't give a camp arm that guarantee. They clearly see him as well in the mix for making the roster.

      Which suggests they are not sold on Rosen. As well they shouldn't be. As I have said before, the idea they are confident in Rosen as someone they can develop into a future starter or quality backup is wishful thinking. I've never understood the infatuation some people had with this idea. If the 49ers truly believed in him they wouldn't have signed Johnson before him last year. They wouldn't have waited until they literally had to sign someone off another team's PS. He was an emergency signing.

      If Rosen ends up playing his way onto the roster then great. But I am not holding my breath. And I am giving the guy they actually targeted and gave some guaranteed money too, and has some history with the QB coach, an advantage in that battle.

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    5. @Scooter and Razor

      What are your thoughts regarding my question of who backs up Lance/Fields if Lance/Fields starts in the 2021 season. Or is that more of a 2022 question?

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    6. @Scooter:

      Maybe I misunderstood, but my point is that despite the trifle of guaranteed money, Sudfeld has no advantage over Rosen or even Johnson at this point. It'll be and it should be "let the best man to backup the starter" win.

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    7. Cubus, if they're following the Smith/Mahomes blueprint then it would be a 2022 question.

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    8. Cubus, yes, let the best man win. That was the point of my last paragraph.

      I think Sudfeld has the minor advantage not just because he has guaranteed money, but because it doesn't make a lot of sense to sign a guy with guaranteed money at this point if you don't see him right in the mix for that #3 spot, he has history with Scangarello, and I don't see any evidence that Shanahan thinks highly of Johnson or Rosen based on the circumstances of when they signed them. And re-signing them this offseason means little - they literally had just one QB on the roster and they both came at the vet minimum.

      As for who is the bridge/ backup if they trade JG and go with the rookie in 2021, that guy isn't currently on the roster.

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    9. @Scooter:

      "As for who is the bridge/ backup if they trade JG and go with the rookie in 2021, that guy isn't currently on the roster."

      And that's where I am headed with my question. Does this fact suggest who the 49ers might be targeting with the #3 pick, or do you see no correlation.

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    10. My guess, and I stress guess, is no correlation.

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  7. When i hear Mcevoy yesterday on YouTube talking that stats are not much,he literally said that Lance is better than Fields and Jones.

    Everyone on the blog should listen to it great great stuff.

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    1. For the sake of those who haven't listened to the youtube, one of the things he said, basically, is that Lance's football intelligence is so high that his head coach trusted Lance to call his own plays based on his (that is, Lance's) pre-snap reads. Quite amazing if true.

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    2. 9er Coach McEvoy on youtube
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZSkQh4P99PE

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    3. This is why I have been so against the idea he needs more development time than the other top QB prospects. It is such a lazy narrative based purely on starts and level of competition.

      Lance is very advanced from a football knowledge perspective thanks to NDSU. He has great poise in the pocket.

      Yes, he will need to adjust to the speed and more complex nature of the NFL game. Every rookie QB does. But his grounding in reading defenses, commanding the huddle, and working the pocket is very good.

      Wentz was on his way to an MVP by his 2nd season if not for injury. From everything I have read I see no reason why Lance can't be fully up to speed with the NFL game by year 2 as well.

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    4. Scooter, I had no idea, obviously.

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  8. Alex Rollins video analysis of Mac Jones: Why he shouldn't be drafted at 3

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CPBSPC07sjs

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  9. If Kyle takes Mac Jones, I have a feeling that we will forever use this pick as an example of over-drafting QB's, and the real beauty of it is in the name - McCorkle.

    Anytime someone over-dafts a QB in the future, we can simply refer to it as "pulling a McCorkle", how perfect is that?

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  10. Jack Hammer's take on the McElvoy youtube video:
    https://www.si.com/nfl/49ers/news/49ers-scouting-the-nuance-that-separates-trey-lance

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    Replies
    1. Lance or Fields is fine with me. I'd prefer Lance but no one knows anything except, Shanny, Big Shanny, Lynch and Peters. Those 4 aren't talking.

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    2. My preference is Lance, but I am honestly fine with any of the top guys, including Jones.

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    3. Ha! Put me down for a no on Jones!

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  11. Razor, you love nicknames, how about pseudonyms?

    "McCorkle" - pseudonym for: over-drafting a QB (Mac Jones aka Michael McCorkle Jones)

    Example: used in a sentence; The Chicago Bears sure "pulled a McCorkle" when they traded up to draft Mitchell Trubisky with the 2nd overall pick.

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    Replies
    1. It'll go down to rival, Munson from King Pin!

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    2. Happy with that. But only if, when Jones turns into a good NFL QB, we can use 49reasons the same way 😁

      "49reason" - pseudonym for getting a draft projection very wrong.

      Example: Man, I really 49reasoned my Miles Boykin take. 😉

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    3. Hah, good one Scooter. How in the world did you remember I liked Boykin (not as a top 10 pick though, or even a first rounder)?

      Good memory bro!

      Cheers!

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    4. Heh, that one is burned into my brain!

      You and I had a lot of back and forth on him. You were soooo adamant about him going to be great, I thought he was an elite athlete but very average WR that didn't play close to his athletic talent.

      I thought it worth bringing up as it is pointless being so adamant about a draft prospect, one way or the other.

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    5. I do remember the debate, didn't remember who I had it with. However, I do remember agreeing with most of your analysis over at the PD, though.

      You are doing good work over here.

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    6. Thanks 49reasons, really appreciate it. And love our debates!

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  12. Example 2: "Some feared Lamar Jackson would end up being a McCorkle"

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  13. BTW, Boykin has improved. Also, I'll put my WR analysis up with the best of them. I hit WR's at a high rate. Of course, one of the last big debates I have with Grant Cohn was about DK Metcalf. Grant thought he was overrated, I thought he was underrated, and was afraid he'd end up with the Pats. Instead, an even worse nightmare happened. DK to Seattle! SMH!

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    Replies
    1. I was right there with you on Metcalf. Criminal he lasted as long as he did.

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