By Scooter_McG
On Friday the 49ers made a bold move by trading pick 12 as
well as first round picks in 2022 and 2023 plus a compensatory third rounder in
2022 to the Dolphins to move up to pick #3 overall this year. The move sent
shockwaves through the league and in many ways was an unexpected move given the
49ers stated stance that they believe in Jimmy G as their starter.
While this is something we have all been discussing since
the news broke, I thought I would take the time to run through my thoughts on
the move and what it means.
What are the 49ers thinking at 3?
This one is pretty obvious – the 49ers are drafting a QB.
Anything else would be an absolute shocker, and John Lynch has already pretty
much confirmed the move is for a QB in an interview with Sam Wyche. The real
question is which QB are they taking? General consensus is Lawrence and Wilson
will be picked 1 and 2, so that leaves one of Fields, Lance or Jones as the
pick, unless the Jags or Jets do the unexpected or the 49ers really want to throw a curve ball.
In my opinion strong arguments can be made for any of these
players, and I am sure I will be discussing each guy in some depth over the
next month leading up to the draft. But for now I am leaning slightly towards
Lance being the “likely” target, though I believe Mac Jones is the guy that most
resembles the type of QB Kyle has typically shown a preference for in the past and
if they wanted someone to start in 2021 I believe he is the most likely to be
able to run Shanahan’s offense at a high level early.
What does this mean for Jimmy G?
Publicly the 49ers are still saying Jimmy G is their QB for
2021. But make no mistake – they are trading up to #3 to draft his replacement.
Jimmy G is not in their long term plans. It is now crystal clear to everyone
that they don’t really believe in Jimmy G; that he is just the stopgap until
they get their guy, and at best the 49ers now see him as a bridge.
This was something that seemed likely to be the case even
before this move. Not just because rumours persisted that the 49ers believed
Jimmy limited what they could do on offense and were interested in pretty much
any QB that became available, though this was certainly a red flag. But because
despite the team’s public stance that they believed in Jimmy G their actions
(and even some of their comments) over the past year and a half seemed counter
to a belief that he was their long term QB. This included continually avoiding
restructuring his deal in order to maintain maximum flexibility to parachute out at any
moment, as well as seemingly protecting Jimmy at times by dialing back the
offense to give him lots of simple, short completions, and numerous moments of
visible frustration from Kyle on the sideline when schemed explosive plays were
missed.
The question now comes down to how quickly is Jimmy G
replaced? We know Jimmy can run Shanahan’s offense effectively and on a strong
roster can take the team to the SB. But is the 2021 roster as strong as the
2019 roster? And how much patience will Shanahan afford Jimmy if he continues
to be inconsistent week to week knowing he has a nice new shiny toy on the
bench that is expected to be the new franchise QB?
And don’t think Jimmy G isn’t aware of all of this. Will he
want to play for the 49ers in 2021 knowing he isn’t in the long term plans and
could be replaced at any moment?
While John Lynch has publicly said they still want Jimmy G
to be the QB in 2021, when asked if they would listen to offers he said they
would and that teams have been circling. Part of the 49ers stance on Jimmy G
can be seen as posturing to ensure they don’t tank his trade value. Don’t be
surprised if Jimmy G isn’t on the 49ers roster this season, and it wouldn’t be
a shock if something happens before the draft.
What does this mean for 2021?
If the 49ers do keep JG, this move doesn’t mean a whole lot
other than providing a far more talented QB behind JG than they had last year
in case of injury or poor performance. The 49ers have kept all of their other
2021 picks and will fill the roster out just the same as if they didn’t trade
up.
However, if they do decide to move Jimmy G this year, this
could have significant ramifications for the 2021 season. Will the rookie be
ready to run the offense? Will he be able to run it as effectively as Jimmy? Who
will the team bring in to potentially act as a bridge if needed and help mentor
their new QBOTF? And what will the team do with the cap space and trade
compensation trading JG would provide?
There has been a lot of debate regarding just how good Jimmy
G is, and how much of a factor he played in the team's 2019 success. I think
that while the team does think they can win with Jimmy, this move proves once
and for all that they believe that Jimmy G holds the team back in some way,
shape or form. And rookie QBs are coming in and performing capably more and
more as teams incorporate concepts that are similar to what these young QBs are
used to in college. Can the team find a similar level of success with a rookie
QB as with Jimmy G in 2021? It may not be as far-fetched as you may think,
especially if it means the team can then add say a Stephon Gilmore through
trade, add an extra high round draft pick, and sign one or two extra FAs that
can be significant contributors.
What does this mean for the future?
The hope is that this means the 49ers will have their
franchise QB for the foreseeable future, and all things going well for the next
decade or more. History over the past two decades has highlighted the
importance of having an elite QB or a young QB on their rookie deal in terms of
Super Bowl success.
All things going well in 2021, the 49ers were unlikely to be
in striking distance to draft their QBOTF in 2022 without giving up
significantly more than they gave up this year. And there is no telling when a
class of QBs will next be as strong as the 2021 crop is believed to be. This
may be the 49ers best chance to find their franchise QB for the foreseeable
future.
Losing their first round picks in 2022 and 2023 stings a bit
(as well as a compensatory third in 2022), but the hope is those picks would be
late picks in the first round anyway and the team will still have plenty of
other draft picks to replenish the roster. First round picks are no guarantee
of adding top end talent, and you don’t need to look any further than the 49ers
2017 draft to know this is the case. And don’t rule out the 49ers recouping
some of those picks by trading Jimmy G, whether it be this year or next.
And by having a starting QB on his rookie deal the 49ers
have the leeway to load the rest of the roster with higher priced talent.
Having guys like Trent Williams, George Kittle and Arik Armstead on monster
deals is not an issue if you are paying your QB around $25M a year less than
the going rate for a veteran starter. It also frees up the space to pay the
likes of Warner and Bosa as those contracts come up for renewal.
Mac Jones had the potential to be a better Derek Carr.
ReplyDeleteI believe more in the combo of Trey Lance his POISE, athleticism and strong arm.
https://withthefirstpick.com/2020/12/04/2021-nfl-draft-lance-vs-wilson/amp/2/
ReplyDeleteIMHO i would be excited with one of them.
https://syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/2890260-bucky-brooks-trey-lance-in-mix-with-trevor-lawrence-for-no-1-in-2021-nfl-draft.amp.html
DeleteI'm a big fan of Trey Lance. Everything I have read about him suggests he has the right attitude, work ethic, intelligence and desire to make himself great. He has a fair amount of development to go through, but I think he is the type of guy you bet on.
DeleteMac Jones is the best if you are truly in the win now mode. He miles beyond the others in terms of reading a defense and making anticipatory throws.
ReplyDeleteThe problem is that in my mind, he is guy you build the offense to suite and move on from after he runs the offense for 4 years as he will likely be that qb in the 15-10 range in terms of talent... very similar to a healthy Jimmy.
If you are willing to wait 3 years, then its Lance. He has all the raw ability you want but his mechanics need to be changed in order for him to become more consistently accurate... think Lamar Jackson.
Then there is Fields who is more accurate than Lance, and very athletic, but he struggles to go through progressions. He will need a much more defined offense, Kyle will need to be in his ear the whole time... think a big, fast, Jarod Goff.
All of them are guys SF can win with but will present some major challenges for Kyle. Wilson, I am not even entertaining as he will be gone at two.
If we get, Wilson my neighborhood will be disrupted by a block party for a whole week.
DeleteRazor
DeleteAfter the show Wilson put on at his pro day, I doubt that will be a problem for your neighborhood?
If NYJ GM Joe Douglas and HC, Robert Saleh keep QB
Sam Darnold and pass on Wilson, I'd expect they'll be fired.
Also, Fields has yet to have his Pro Day. Not that I think that will move him ahead of Wilson, but it could
Lance.
I somewhat disagree with some of this.
DeleteI keep hearing how Mac Jones' ceiling is that of, effectively, a mid-tier starter in the NFL. Why? Because he doesn't have elite athleticism or a cannon for an arm? When did those traits become the prerequisite for greatness at QB?
Regarding Lance, as I have said previously, I think people sleep on where he is at on the development curve. It's not as far off as people tend to believe, imo. Yes, he has to work on his mechanics and a number of other areas to become a truly great QB, but I think he can run a very effective offense much quicker than people give him credit for.
Fields... I think he needs the most work on the mental aspects of his game which is why my gut feeling is he is the least likely of the three to be the pick. But that OSU offense doesn't do him many favours in this regard. He clearly has all the physical tools you could want, and my understanding is he is also very intelligent and passionate about being great. Shanahan will have a good understanding of what makes him tick and his talent having worked with him at the QB Collective.
Wilson is the pick if available, but as you say, doubt he will be. And yeah, I think Shanahan can build a good offense around any of the three.
Scooter
DeleteNot sure if your last post was addressed to me or not?
If it was, I pretty much agree with you. Just curious which part you somewhat disagree with?
My only input on Fields is, It's my understanding that he hasn't had his pro day yet and if he has a good one it may improve his standing?
My post was in response to Shoup.
DeleteLance his mechanics already improved on his pro day.
ReplyDeleteMiles beyond the others i would not say this, Wilson and Lance had also pro concepts in there offense.
Robber,
DeleteWhile his mechanics may have improved on his pro day, (he shorten his stride)... they are still not good. His shoulders still dip and pop up when he throws.
That said, he will need more than a years worth of work before this becomes an ingrained trait that is maintained when the bullet's start flying IMO.
Scangarello can coach him up.
DeleteThe mechanics still need plenty of work, but the mechanics are just a fraction of what makes a good QB. The most important question is whether he can execute Kyle's offense. Everything I have read about him suggests he has the requisite intelligence and knowledge of the game to do so.
DeleteScooter
DeleteI agree, Lance needs work on his mechanics, as Shoup points out. and as Razor points out, Scangarello can
coach him up. The question is, how long will it take and will he be ready his rookie year, if JG goes down?
(Assuming the 9ers don't trade JG before the season starts. To go from the competition he faced, to the NFL is not just one step up, but two and no one knows how he'll react under pressure he'll see from NFL players. As I said before, I think he has the tools to succeed, it's just how long will it take him. If Given a year to adjust, he'll do ok! If thrown to the wolves at the start of the season...Who knows?
My understanding is that Lance had more on his plate at NDSU than most QBs in college. I don't think learning the offense will be any more of a problem for him than most other QBs (in fact I think he will be better than most in learning the offense).
DeleteYes, the step up in competition will be a hard learning curve. The speed of the game will be a big transition. He won't have guys as wide open. Same can be said for most college QBs though.
Wentz came from NDSU and played ok as a rookie. As good or better than most rookie QBs do. By year two he was in discussion for league MVP and his team won the SB.
Ideal situation for Lance would be he doesn't need to start in 2021, at least not right out of the gate. But if he does... I don't think it is a foregone conclusion it will be the disaster some make it out.
When you watched him today I thought the focus on the footwork, cleaning that up a little bit, shortening that stride, was big, and I also thought he really tightened his release up from what we saw in the fall,” Jeremiah said during NFL Network’s live broadcast from Fargo.
ReplyDeleteNDSU had similarities with an NFL offense, Lance processed Pre-snap looks from the defense, he was calling protection on almost every play.
Yep, a lot of people don't appreciate how much he was tasked with doing at NDSU. Matt Waldman makes the great point too that in that offense they are coached to go low-high, not high-low like most offenses. So when you see those explosive pass plays, they are often because Lance has gone through his reads and identified that as the right play, not because it was his first read. He's way more advanced mentally than he gets credit for.
DeleteRolling the dice for the 3rd pick to take one of, Wilson, Lance or Fields is understandable. Mac Jones? If he's their guy, and it doesn't work out, Shanny will not only be sacked but his arrogance will go from preconceived notion to removing all doubt.
ReplyDeleteHe runs the risk of getting sacked if it doesn't work out with whoever they pick. This move is a big gamble no matter what.
DeleteHowever, I think it only becomes an issue if the the team sucks as a result. If all the QB they pick becomes is a competent starter, much like JG, the team and coaching staff are probably good enough to still be very successful.
I think Jed has matured beyond the "we only raise Super Bowl banners" days. I think he knows the locker room dynamic Kyle and Lynch have created is abnormally good and so long as they are in the hunt consistently then Kyle will probably be safe for many years yet.
Ouch. That's a lot of draft capital to give up. And recent history has not smiled upon the bold.
ReplyDelete"In the last 10 years, teams have traded into the top three of the draft to select a quarterback five times. Of the five players who were selected -- Robert Griffin III, Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Mitchell Trubisky and Sam Darnold -- only Darnold remains with the team that drafted him."
Analysts (even on this site) are all over page as to which QB the Niners should select, so let's hope they get *the* guy. Remember, the last time the Niners traded up to select a QB netted us CJ Beathard.
To use a Seb-ism, perhaps Saleh spilled his guts to his former team about the direction the Jets are going @ #2 so that adds another QB to the mix @ #3 :)
Agreed Rib,
DeleteWhile I don't mind giving up that kind of capital for the second pick. I don't like doing this for the 3rd pick.
The reason is simple... With Lawrence everyone knows he's going first. So you know for a fact he's going 1... But we don't know who Kyle likes and SF put themselves in a position where they may have to settle for the 3rd qb on Kyle's board. And trust me they are not all graded equally.
This is also why I don't get the rumor that they didn't even call the jets... that would make them stupid.
Yep, history hasn't smiled on those teams. One of them won the Super Bowl, another went to one and has been in the playoffs three of the last four years, and another was in the playoffs two out of the past three years.
DeleteThe learning here isn't that trading up for a QB is a bad idea. The learning here is that you shouldn't give that QB a second contract if they don't develop into an elite player.
This team has done all that and more in the same timeframe. Now without first round picks for the next couple of years. This QBOTF had better be a monster.
DeleteThere are what, 5 probable 1st round QBs this year? What are the odds more than one or two of them makes it to the 5th year option of the team that drafted him? Do we feel lucky, punks?
They won a Super Bowl in the last five years? Nabdammit, how did I miss that one?!!
DeleteYeah Scoot, my bad. But I somehow missed that team winning the SB with the QB they drafted #2 to do it with.
DeleteYeah, taking them to 11-2 before getting hurt didn't help.
DeleteI also must have missed the 49ers making the playoffs more than once in the past five years.
"In the last *10* years, teams have traded into the top three of the draft..."
DeleteAh, silly me, I thought when you said in the same timframe you might have been responding to the timeframes in my comment you were responding to.
DeleteIs it certain that the Jags will select Lawrence? Baalke has a way of screwing things up when it comes to the draft, although one would think that Meyer has all of the power. Still, if they wind up taking Fields, then one of Wilson or Lawrence would be available to the 49ers. At least that was the outcome of my dream last night.
ReplyDeleteIn my dreams it's still the same. Wilson is the pick and wins us games.
Delete• I don’t think the 49ers are targeting Alabama’s Mac Jones at No. 3. I don’t think he has the elite athletic profile that would merit sacrificing this trove of draft picks. I don’t think Shanahan and Lynch would bet their careers on Jones, just my opinion.
ReplyDeleteI don't know whether to feel substantiated that, Kawakami shares my view or on tenterhooks.
Razor
DeleteNot that I disagree with you about the 9ers drafting
Mac Jones, at least not after the trade. But you have under estimated him from day one. If one were to accept your evaluation, then Tom Brady would have never been the Patriots QB, or ever won a SB.
FACT: Jones can and has done everything ask of him, including winning a national championship.
I'm going to formulate my thoughts on this a bit better before giving a lengthy rebuttal to Kawakami/ your thoughts on the matter, but in general, when has Shanahan ever prioritised an elite athletic profile in a QB?
DeleteGeep ,Tom Brady is a more natural thrower than than Mac Jones, his Wr's where most of the time open so Mack of big time throws. a
ReplyDeleteAll the great qb's have live arms his arm is good but not live.
I have said it before i find hom a slighter better version than Derek Carr/Daniel Jones.
Cant imagine that Shanny takes him over Wilson(if the Jets pass) or Lance than i would really begin tot questining Shannys ability toch judge qb's or that he is arrogant.
He really likes Deshaun Watson/Josh Allen so than you can assume that hé gets one in that mild./
Robber,
DeleteIn terms of Arm's hI think you are over stating things. One of the knocks on Brady in addition to his poor build was that he couldn't drive the ball down the field. Montana was noted for not having a "live" arm as you call it. Additionally in more recent memory Brees, Manning and Rivers all had good but not live arms. In fact I would go so far as to say that of the above mention players, only Brady had an above average (ie Good) arm, and I think he developed that over time.
Also, while Carr is often maligned around here, If Mac had Carr's arm I would take him without question. He has the arm talent, his questions are all elsewhere.
Robber
DeleteShoup just destroyed your rebuttal, RE Brady.
FACT: Every one of the three, Wilson, Fields and Lance
have an issue we can point to and claim it's a reason
the 9ers should not draft them. But in FACT, the only
opinion that matters are Shanahan and Lynch's.
I for one, am happy to see they had the cajones to move up to #3. A risk? ABSOLUTELY! Life is a risk, Nothing ventured, nothing gained. Brick by Brick is the motto...Now Shanahan gets his pick of 3 brick....
GETER DONE...
Destroying me? LOL
DeleteRobber
DeleteIf that (LOL), is the best you can do, then I agree
LMAO. WEAK DUDE, WEAK
We"ll see on draft Day which qb it will be ��,a live arm is for me throw guys open and deliver big time throws in the Alabama offense Wr's where already open and i dont see in Mac Jones.
DeleteSome of you guys are to down on Trey Lance and to high on Mac Jones i dont get it.
Robber
DeleteSo it's your opinion that since Jones played with the
best WR's in college football, that, in your opinion, makes him an inferior QB to the rest of the top QB's?
Damn, OK! So explain to me how he won the national championship? Were his WR's throwing the ball to themselves?
While you at it, what part of the route tree is Jones
incapable of throwing to?
IMO the most important attribute a QB can have is IQ!
Check out how long it took jones to get both he BA and
Masters degree. In case you don't know...3 years for both....Yea, he has a weak arm and can't read
defenses....RIGHT!
Lets talk about this again in 2-3 years, and see how he
compares to the others in this years draft.
49ers sign, Mohamed Sanu and lb, Nate Gerry.
ReplyDeleteGerry has said he signed with the 49ers because they indicated he would get starting time. I am assuming that means he will play one of the 3 LB spots in 4-3 base.
DeleteAre we even sure either makes the team?
DeleteNot at all, but I think Gerry has a much better chance. For mine he is Kwon Alexander's replacement.
DeleteI’m guessing the 49ers are targeting Mac Jones. This all stems from if there is any truth that they have been trying to move up to pick 4 or 5 for weeks now. I think it’s safe to say that lance or fields could be taken before pick number 5 so why give up draft capital to get up to 5 if your target (fields or lance) is not even there for the taking.
ReplyDeleteI think it’s also safe to say that Jones most like would have been available at 5 so they would have felt comfortable making that trade with the Bengals.
Well, why didn’t they just give up less capital and move to 5 instead of 3? Well it takes 2 teams to tango and maybe the dolphins were the only team in the top 5 willing to pull the trigger this early. Shanahan also doesn’t seem to have the best player available philosophy and previous drafts show that he locks on to his targeted player and makes unnecessary trade ups to ensure he gets his player (think Dante Pettis, CJ Beathard and Joe Williams).
I think Mac Jones fits the type of player shanahan covets and is ensuring no other teams can jump ahead of him and take his guy.
I’m not against Mac Jones as much as most people seem to be but it definitely hurts giving up an additional 2 first round picks to move that far up but if it helps shanahan sleep at nights then i can see it. It will be an exciting month though reading everyone’s thoughts and speculations on this blog though.
That is an angle I didn't get into in my article, but yes, it is very interesting that the reports on the trade outline they were looking to get into the top 5. That very much indicates to me that there is likely more than 3 guys they like, more so than it may not be Lance or Fields they prefer. You can't be sure which of Lance, Fields or Jones would be there at 5, so saying it is a sign they like Jones isn't something I fully agree with.
DeleteHowever, the interesting thing for me is that they ended up moving to 3. While it may be that the Dolphins were the only team that bit, I somewhat doubt it. Not for what the 49ers were willing to offer. So I think it was a case of moving down the list rather than up. They have gone to 3 to give them the best chance of grabbing their preferred option.
In terms of Jones, I completely agree he is the type of QB Shanahan has shown he prefers.
cwalkertd49
DeleteI'm not saying you're wrong, but can you show me one
draft board, or mock draft, that has Mac Jones higher
than #12? I haven't seen one, which raises the question...Why trade up for Jones, when he available at #12?
NOTE: I'm one of the ones who have said I believe the
9ers would draft him at #12 and keep JG as a bridge.
Scooter,
DeleteGreat stuff by the way! I didn't comment much on inside the 49ers but I've read just about every comment posted for the last 8 years so definitely excited to have found you all here on inspired 49ers. Keep up the good work!
Geep
great point! I live out here in Colorado and a few local media guys out here were Huge on Mac Jones and were mocking him to the Broncos at #9 but I agree, most national media folks out there didn't have Jones going that high. He definitely seemed to have been picking up steam lately though. Shanahan just seems to be more of an emotional drafter and if he got wind that another team was eyeing him, it just seems like a very shanahan/Lynch type move to move up a bit higher than necessary just to ensure they get their guy.
Thanks cwalker, glad you enjoyed it!
DeleteI’m a Mac Jones fan, but I have a difficult time believing that the 49ers gave up so much if he in the intended target.
ReplyDeletePersonally, I would only make such a deal for Lawrence, Wilson and Watson.
But if the #3 pick fetches Mac or Trey Lance, I would be inclined to support that decision.
Also, of Fields, Lance and Jones, I believe that Mac plays sooner.
But who knows, when the dust settles on all these top tier QBs, Kyler Trask (2nd tier) may be the best among them all.
"I’m a Mac Jones fan, but I have a difficult time believing that the 49ers gave up so much if he in the intended target."
DeleteWhy is that, AES?
Scooter,
DeleteI always envisioned Jones as a first rd 10-24 pick.
I felt that if the 49ers wanted him, he could be available at #12 had the 49ers stayed put.
But as I said, I like Mac and if the 49ers really feel that he is better than Lance and Fields and see him as their QBOTF I’m down with that.
But when September rolls around it would not surprise me to see a new #4 wearing a 49ers uniform named Deshaun Watson.
AES
DeleteI don't believe anyone will be trading for Watson now. Not with his legal problems.
As far as Watson saying "he will NOT play another down for them"...He may not have a choice, if found guilty, he won't be "playing another down" for anyone for a long time.
So just for my own clarity, the reason you believe the 49ers didn't give up all those assets for Jones is your own belief that Jones could be had later? Nothing to do with whether he is the type of QB Shanahan may covet?
DeleteGEEP,
DeleteIf Watson is found guilty to the alleged accusations, his lawyer may get the judge to send him to rehab as a trade-off to jail time.
I have a sense that Watson will be in the NFL in 2021. He either plays for another team or he sits on the Houston bench all season as he said he would.
But that’s just one man’s opinion.
Reason why Houston might call the 49ers is simple. They don’t have a pick until the 3rd and Watson has made it abundantly clear that he will not play another down for them.
ReplyDeleteTrading for the 49ers #3 pick and perhaps Garoppolo might entice Houston to make another blockbuster deal with the 49ers.
As I mentioned yesterday, I don’t believe that Maverick John is done dealing.
AES / SCOOTER
DeleteI have to agree with Razor on this one! IMO, the 9ers
could have stayed at pick #12 and drafted Mac Jones.
And I was of the opinion, that was what they were going to do.
Scooter: Or anyone who has an opinion...
DeleteQUESTION: Will the 9ers trade JG before the regular season starts, or use him as a bridge and give the QB
they draft at #3, a year to set and learn?
To me, it seems the rational thing to do is keep JG for 2021.
* IF JG plays well, he's worth more in a trade, especially if he stays healthy and the 9ers make the playoffs? And lets the 9ers recoup some draft picks.
Somewhat depends on the QB they draft, imo. But Lynch has certainly left the option open for trading him this year. My thoughts are they are hoping they can bait the Patriots into massively overpaying for him this year, and if not, then let him stay and trade him next year.
DeleteHouston will want a lot more than the #3 and Garoppolo. That trade idea is dead with the Niners having traded their next two first round picks. There's also the fact he's getting sued by massage therapists from California to Texas that likely ended any chance of them considering it anyway.
DeleteObviously there are quite a few people that believe drafting Mac Jones at #3 would be a disastrous pick. That giving up the assets they did just to draft Jones would be foolish. The most commonly cited reason I see for this is that Jones doesn’t have the elite physical traits a top 5 QB “needs to have” and that he doesn’t fit the mold of QB the NFL is moving towards.
ReplyDeleteA key point in this argument also comes back to comments Shanahan made after the game against the Bills, where Josh Allen carved them up. To paraphrase, Shanahan said his evaluation of QBs and what he looks for is constantly evolving, and that for him it is about finding that guy that is better than 98% of people and then adjusting to them. Many have taken this to mean Shanahan now wants a QB that has the athleticism and arm talent of Allen or Mahomes.
But here’s the thing – wherever Shanahan has coached he has looked for very specific traits in his QBs. Those traits have primarily been around accuracy, anticipation, ability to read defenses and go through progressions, decision making in the pocket, being aggressive and decisive with the ball (yet not forcing it if it isn’t there, which goes back to the decision making), pocket movement skills and pocket awareness. All traits based around playing from the pocket effectively. In terms of physical traits, Dan Orlovsky (who played for Shanahan) gave some great insight when he outlined Kyle stresses two things in terms of athleticism – (1) a natural, fluid throwing motion and (2) upper body torque to be able throw accurately downfield without a strong, set base because you can't always set your feet in the NFL. Those are the two physical traits he stresses, and they again are based around playing from the pocket. You will note that running the ball is not one of them.
Despite saying his evaluation of QBs is constantly evolving, he has consistently looked for the same types of traits everywhere he has been. Even with the 49ers, he wanted Kirk Cousins. This is important – just because his evaluation is evolving, the core of what he looks for is unlikely to have changed. Especially given that he continues to find success with those traits (when the QB stays healthy), and QBs with those traits continue to lead their teams to the playoffs and the most recent Super Bowl winner is the prime example of the importance of those traits.
Speaking of Brady, another Shanahan quote from late October last year that people seem to forget is that if he had to choose between a pocket passer and a QB with mobility, he’d choose a pocket passer. But if he had the choice between Tom Brady and Tom Brady with mobility, he’d take the latter. So what may be happening is that he is expanding the things he looks for. He may now see the ability to extend plays with your feet as an important (or at least highly desirable) trait he is now looking for. But we as yet have seen no evidence of this outside of some comments that didn’t actually say this, and it won’t override the other traits he consistently looks for.
With the team now clearly moving on from Jimmy G as their long term starter, it is important to understand this is not a sign that Shanahan doesn’t value the traits he has historically coveted to the same degree anymore. It is a sign that he doesn’t believe Jimmy G provides some or all of those traits to the level he wants. Basically, they no longer believe Jimmy G is what they hoped he was or would become after the 2017 season (i.e. Kirk Cousins or better).
When I look at the traits that Shanahan has coveted in the past, and I look at Mac Jones, I see a guy that fits the mold of QB Shanahan desires. So I 100% can believe that he is the guy Shanahan is targeting. And if the 49ers don’t take Jones, but instead draft Lance or Fields (or Wilson if he somehow makes it past the Jets) it will be because Shanahan believes that player has or will develop all the traits he has historically coveted at a level commensurate or better than Jones, in addition to having the elite athletic traits to extend plays.
This trade is going to earmark Shanny/Lynch legacy. It could go down as the greatest trade in Niner history or it could be the epitome of desperation. In the past ten years the Niners have paraded a facsimile of QB's before us and none of them stick. Just to remind everybody no rookie QB has ever gone to the SB...That also means there still is a first time for everything. I always support what the team does whether I agree with the decisions or not.
ReplyDeleteHey guys, I've made the trek from the Santa Rosa Democrat, over to here, and I'm excited to talk with you guys again about all things 49ERS! This is my first post, so it's a trial run, hopefully I logged in correctly.
ReplyDeleteAbout time! 😁 Good to have you aboard 49reasons.
DeleteWelcome on board. Looking forward to reading your comments and insights again.
ReplyDeleteThanks AES, good to hear from you.
DeleteIt lives!
ReplyDeletehttps://49ers.pressdemocrat.com/the-49ers-push-in-all-the-chips-theyd-better-be-right/
Skeptic C.W. brings up many valid points, at the forefront 3 first rounds being the price tag for a generational talent. Is that what they will be getting? "They’d better be right"
Yes, they better get it right.
DeleteThere are 4 extremely talented, modern QB's in this draft, plus Mac Jones. While I don't particularly like the value of picking Jones at #3, all 5 of those top guys can be successful under Kyle, and have successful NFL careers, provided they can stay healthy ... knock on wood.
That's my worry as well. They've now put themselves in a position where they have to hit on this pick or they will have squandered a shot at contending for the next few years. Scooter McG makes some good points but I don't see them moving on from Garoppolo for his play as much as for the fact they haven't been able to get him the playing experience he needs because of his injuries. He went to a SB in his first full year as a starter and likely will continue to improve as time goes on if he can stay on the field but they obviously feel they have to go in a different direction. Some see keeping JG as the starter this year as a smoke screen but I could see it happening especially if they go with Lance. He will need time to adjust and learn the offense and I doubt they want to blow off a season while a rookie gets up to speed.
DeleteRib,
ReplyDeleteOne observation CW made was that whoever the QB is, he will be under pressure because the 49ers gave up so much for him.
CW is correct in this call.
Good read Scooter. Agree that it will be Lance. Lance is the most Shanny ready QB in the draft because he played for NDSU, there's several articles about the schemes being similar. Lance has experience with long winded but neccessary vebiage pre-snap. He's really good at executing play action. NDSU runs jet sweeps lke us, but with Lance, it can be a jet sweep option. Lance can push the ball downfield on the outside, unlike Jimmy. Lance has a pretty good deep ball too. He goes through his progression, has pocket awareness and elusiveness, and he's not afraid to get hit. There's so much that Kyle would presumably like about Lance.
ReplyDeleteThanks #80. Yeah, I know some evaluators and fans aren't high on Lance, but imo he has a lot of traits I think Shanahan will like.
DeleteAmen #80, that's what im also thinking before the season started Bucky Brooks also mentioned that there where a lot of scouts who said that Trey Lance would be in the mix for #1 draftpick instead of Lawrence.
ReplyDeleteHe has also the character and leadership on and off the footballfield that Shanny covets.
Very mature for his age.
High football IQ cuz calling protections for a first year starter is huge.
Proven winner.
This could be the steal of the decade for us.
Also cuz we tried to get Dalton i assume its for Lance so there is a plan with a bridge QB.