Monday, March 15, 2021

Bringing the Juice

By Scooter_McG

The first dominos are starting to fall for the 49ers offseason plan. First Moseley and Brunskill were re-signed a couple of days ago, then Richburg’s contract was restructured ahead of his expected retirement to free up cap space. Then, after what sounds like quite a fun night at 49ers HQ, yesterday the 49ers announced they had re-signed FB Kyle Juszczyk to a five year extension worth $27M. The details of the re-signings to date are not known, but it would appear the 49ers have likely structured the deals of Moseley and Juice to minimise the 2021 cap hit.

Despite the hefty price tag relative to other FBs in the NFL, re-signing Juice makes a lot of sense for the 49ers. Shanahan uses FBs as much as anyone in the NFL, and he asks a lot from his FB. They need to be excellent lead run blockers, that goes without saying. But Shanahan’s FBs also need to be athletic enough to get out and open holes ahead of his stable of fast and explosive RBs in an outside zone scheme, as well as be able to smoothly and quickly reverse direction on counter plays. They also need to be effective receivers, capable of splitting out and creating mismatches with LBs while also having reliable hands. And, every now and then, provide some tough short yardage runs. To put it simply, there aren’t a lot of FBs around that can do what Shanahan wants his FB to do – in fact if you ask Kyle Shanahan he’ll tell you Juice is one of a kind.

So when you ask yourself whether it is worth paying $5M/year for a FB that may only play 40%-50% of offensive snaps a game, remember this – the FB is an integral part of Shanahan’s offense. In 2019, the 49ers used 21 personnel on 28% of snaps (a league high and well above the league average 8%), and were extremely successful running for 5.7 yards per carry from this personnel grouping and 9.7 yards per pass attempt. And Shanahan isn’t after just any FB; he’s after a very rare FB in a league where FBs are already rare, and finding a replacement for Juice is no easy feat.

52 comments:

  1. They might call him, Juice but when he catches those wheel routes he looks like a smoothie to me.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Juice is a popular player and is instrumental in Shanny's offense. I never have had problems with over paying or over drafting as long as the players perform. Then again, if the player performs, are they over payed or over drafted...

    I still have doubts that T Williams will be a Niner next year seems to me if that was to happen it already would of. Verrett has an offer on the table.

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  3. Sorry guys still not use to the format. UC ^

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Undercenter
      RE TW: He has said multiple times, he wants to see what the market has to offer. He's also said, he wants to be a 9er. TRANSLATION: He'll sign a 9er contract if it's competitive....Likely around $20+ Mil P/Y. It also means, since he's the #1 FA, his agent hasn't talked
      to any other teams about what kind of money they'll offer him out if fear of tamper charges. As of today, the 15th, my understanding is, his agent can hear from other teams so the 9ers can decide if they want to make a better offer or not!

      Delete
  4. With about 15 minutes to go, appears Williams and Verrett are open to other offers. If so, I assume the Niners will be making offers to free agents to replace them. Exciting times!

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  5. As an aside saw the following this morning from Andrew Brandt:

    @AndrewBrandt
    Taysom Hill deal reminds me when I had to create phony incentives in order to have Cap carryover. I once gave Doug Pederson a $20 million bonus if he threw seven TDs in our last game. All funny money.

    ReplyDelete
  6. First and foremost, the contract is a two-year commitment at $5M per year. I can see a rework down the road at somewhat less money per year and adding on some guaranteed money.

    This Ia important re-sign of a major piece on the offense and a veteran team leader, with all parties in the negotiation seemingly very happy with the outcome.

    Third is an observation in passing. If I am not mistaken, the Niners would be paying less to their entire running back room (AAV) than Packers will be paying to their #1 RB.

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  7. Per Dave Lombardi,
    "$20 million won’t do it for Trent Williams — that’s why I’ve been tweeting about deals in the $23-24 million range for the past week.

    The 49ers will have to make Williams the highest-paid tackle or close to it if they want to keep him."

    Lombardi goes on to say that the Colts and the Chiefs are in great cap shape to make a splash deal for Williams.

    I know that nothing is written in stone, but it's starting to look like Slater is the safe choice.
    The 49ers could also trade out of #12 and garner a late 1st rd and a high 2nd rd pick.
    This could potentially have the 49ers choosing twice between 20-35.

    Even if Williams re-signs, this trade scenario gives the team two talented draft picks that could eventually compensate for lower cap space in signing FA's.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AES
      IMO: I doubt Dave Lombardi knows anything for sure. More likely his comments are click bait more than factual.
      At any rate, if the number is $23-24 mil P/Y, does it
      include incentives (that will never be met, or paid)?
      Also, the guaranteed money is the important number and that, we don't know.

      Delete
  8. Rapoport tweeting that 49ers signed Jason Verret to a 1 year deal worth 5.5 Million. Great deal I would say!

    ReplyDelete
  9. Looks like the Chiefs are prepared to wage a war for, Trent Williams. We can't compete with, Mahomes. I've got a feeling he'll choose the Chiefs.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Razor
      IMO, the Colts will be the 9ers competition. Even after
      cutting their 2 OT's I believe the Colts still have way more cap space.

      Delete
  10. Verrett signed. One year in the neighborhood of 5 mil.

    ReplyDelete
  11. The outcome of the two most important 9er players for the
    2021 season, are still unknown. #One: OT TW and #Two: EDGE D. Ford. How the 9er FO resolves the status of these two players, will determine how they draft and or FA's they sign.
    determine how

    ReplyDelete
  12. Samson Ebukam, come on down! 2 years, $12M, possibility to rise to $13.5M. He was one of the guys I suggested the team could look at as a younger alternative to Kerrigan.

    49ers have also been sniffing around the center options.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I expect he'll compete for, Ford's role along with another F/A and draft pick.

      Delete
    2. "Los Angeles made Ebukam a fourth-round selection out of Eastern Washington in 2017. He registered 31 tackles, three tackles for a loss, 4.5 sacks, a pass defensed, and a forced fumble through 16 games and 14 starts with the Rams in 2020.

      Ebukam, 25, has recorded 150 tackles, 16 tackles for a loss, 14 sacks, six passes defensed, an interception, a touchdown, and six forced fumbles through his four NFL seasons."

      -David Bonilla, webzone

      Delete
    3. Seems like he's an ascending player, Under, plus he's healthy!

      Delete
    4. Solid player, LB corps already good just got better.

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    5. He was an OLB in a 3-4, but so was Ford. He's a direct replacement for Ford. Solid pickup.

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    6. Samson generated a career-high 12.7% pressure rate as a situational pass rusher in 2020, 15th-highest in the NFL (min. 150 pass rushes).

      Delete
    7. He's been pretty solid for 3 years now. Last year was in some ways a bit of a disappointment for him as he fell down the depth chart a little, but still found a way to contribute when called upon.

      Delete
    8. Ebukam's athletic profile
      https://twitter.com/BetterRivals/status/1371569221465948173

      Delete
  13. Its happening fast Ford agrees to a reworked 2 year deal

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If he can't pass a physical by April, chances are he'll never be healthy enough to play another down.

      Delete
    2. I think his career is over myself.

      Delete

  14. Ian Rapoport
    @RapSheet
    ·
    8m
    The #49ers and LB Dee Ford have agreed to terms on a restructured 2-year deal worth $24M, per me and
    @TomPelissero
    . A practical, win-win solution to an ongoing issue in SF.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Had to happen. Will be interested to see the details.

      Delete
  15. Looks like Bourne will be headed to the Patriots. Supposedly has multiple offers, though so not a done deal.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Likely gotten an offer from the Pats significantly more than what the Niners may have offered. Surprised at how Bellichick is spraying cash around....

      Delete
    2. Bourne signed by the Patriots to a 3 year deal worth $22.5 million.

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    3. That's more than I thought he would get. Good for him, he's worked hard and earned it. But also glad the 49ers didn't re-sign him for that much.

      Delete
    4. I'm happy for him and also happy we can try someone else at his spot. Hoping it will be Hurd or Jennings, but who knows. Both have higher ceilings imo, certainly Hurd.

      Delete
    5. I don't think that the Niners would have offered north of 3 yr-$15M, $9-$10M guaranteed. Glad Bourne got his big payday.

      Delete
  16. Article on Ebukam:

    https://www.49erswebzone.com/articles/145313-things-know-about-new-49ers-rusher-samson-ebukam/

    ReplyDelete
  17. Very interesting day. NE is the new Washington Redskins/FT. Who knew? I like how things are going so far. Ebukam is pretty much a carbon copy of Ford physically but doesn't have the skins on the wall yet. For the money I like it though. Great deal made with Verrett which doesn't hurt the team long term if he gets injured. I hope TW re-signs but if not there should be a lot of good bargains that will be available to take advantage of with the money they've put aside for him.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Grant article today on Trubisky as a possible signing:

    https://www.si.com/nfl/49ers/news/san-francisco-49ers-interested-in-signing-mitchell-trubisky

    ReplyDelete
  19. Maoicco on Ebukam:

    Last season, Ebukam ranked fifth among all outside linebackers in pressure rate at 14.7, trailing only Markus Golden, T.J. Watt, Matthew Judon and Bradley Chubb.

    Ebukam also had a higher pressure rate than Kerry Hyder Jr., who is expected to leave in free agency after leading the 49ers with 8.5 sacks last season.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm hoping they are still able to retain Hyder, if he doesn't get the market he hopes for. If not, I think they add a low cost veteran. The past couple of years have really shown they need some depth. Bosa, Armstead, Ebukam, Hyder/ another FA and a rookie is how I would approach it.

      Delete
  20. Rumour is the 49ers are showing interest in JuJu Smith-Schuster. He's a guy I suggested could be a surprise splash signing for the 49ers - fits what they want perfectly.

    If they do sign JuJu, I'm thinking Trent Williams may be gone.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, he does. It would be great to have him on the team. Are you surprised that Trent hasn't been a signing on the first day of FA?

      Delete
    2. Re Williams, a little bit, yeah. Makes me think the market hasn't been quite what he was hoping either. Either that... or he genuinely does want to re-sign with the 49ers but they are struggling to work out parameters of a deal that is close enough to what he has been offered elsewhere to convince him to stay.

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    3. Or I guess the other option is that there are a lot of teams negotiating with him at the moment and he is just playing them off each other.

      Delete
  21. Carl Lawson is a good get for the Jets, but man, Lawson has quite the injury history and I fear for his knees playing at MetLife on the regular.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Trent Williams contract is probably the most difficult contract that Marathe has worked on considering the cap circumstances. It should get done tomorrow if he is at all going to re-sign with the Niners.

    Would Niners offer be close to 5 years $120M that makes him the highest paid tackle in NFL history on paper with $50-60M "guaranteed"? How much of it would be signing bonus and how much guaranteed at signing? What do you folks think?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I could see something like that happening, but with salary balooning the last two years. Say $20M signing bonus and low-ish salary year 1, keeping the cap hit to around $8M-$10M max. Maybe some of his compensation year 2 as an option bonus to push cap hit out a bit further in 2022. Similar to what they did with Armstead. Pay him around $65M-$70M in first 3 years, majority guaranteed, but keep cap hit relatively low through signing/ option bonuses, then salary jumps to $25M-$27.5M per annum for last two years with the likelihood he won't actually see years 4 or 5 when his salary and cap hits jump a lot.

      Delete
    2. Yes, that approach definitely makes sense.Enough guaranteed money and enough structural features (within the long-ish contract that Williams seeks) to protect the Niners.

      Delete
  23. One thing I hadn't thought about previously, but the longer DJ Jones, Solomon Thomas and Witherspoon stay on the market the better the 49ers chances of retaining at least one of them on a 1 year deal. Because the 49ers get a $1.25M leg up on the other 31 teams due to the 4th year veteran salary benefit.

    Basically, any player that has been on the active roster of a team for 4+ consecutive years can have $1.25M of salary above the vet minimum not count against the cap. A team can only use a maximum of $1.25M in cap saving, but they can spread it over up to two players. Jones, Thomas and Witherspoon should all be eligible for this.

    In fact, if K'Wuan Williams stays unsigned for a while and decides he would like to just take a 1 year deal and bet on himself again next offseason, he should be eligible for this too.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks for that information. Was not aware of that exception which seems to be a watered-down analogy to NBA's Bird exception.

      I would perhaps add Tartt to that list.

      Delete
    2. Report that Spoon's going to Seahawks:

      https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/49ers/nfl-rumors-ahkello-witherspoon-seahawks-agree-one-year-contract

      Delete

Breaking

  Jeremy Fowler @JFowlerESPN · 2m Source: the #49ers and corner Deommodore Lenoir have reached a five-year, $92-million extension.