49ers Free Agency Prediction

By Scooter_McG

In the past few articles I have discussed how the 49ers should be able to free up quite a bit of cap space with a few fairly simple moves (and the cap carryover has only made that easier), and outlined some of the moves I think the 49ers could make in FA and the draft to put together a strong 2021 season roster. The process has already started with the 49ers announcing a couple of re-signings in Moseley (2 years, $10.1M) and Brunskill (ERFA tender, 1 year $0.85M), and Blair released. While exact details of Moseley’s deal and 2021 cap hit has not yet been released, it is likely the cap hit will be less than the average annual value of his deal (which may also be an upper value including incentives) and the 49ers should have remaining cap of somewhere between $20M to $25M.

With the start of FA now less than a week away, in this article I will bring together some of those previous entries to provide a consolidated outline of what I think the 49ers will do in FA.

For starters, I believe the 49ers will cut Richburg and Ford. With Ford that may require a contract restructure as previously discussed, giving him a signing bonus equal to his injury guarantee then designating him a post June 1 cut. That should free up around $10M-$11M in space, though some of it won’t be realised until after June 1 (I believe around $3M). With Richburg, I’m thinking they don’t designate him a post June 1 cut, saving $4.5M against the cap in 2021 but also getting him fully off the books this year. Those two moves should take the 49ers cap space to around $35M-$40M. I predict they will also move money around on some combination of contracts including JG, Ward and Tomlinson to free up another $15M-$20M or so in 2021, to provide a kitty of around $55M. Of that, I am going to assume around $15M gets set aside for the draft class as well as some wiggle room to cover injuries during the season, leaving $40M to spend in FA.

My guess is the 49ers get a deal done with Trent Williams – something along the lines of 4 years, ~$85M with ~$45M fully guaranteed gets it done. A voidable 5^th year may also be included to help spread the cap hit out. Look for the 49ers to keep his 2021 cap hit down to around $10M-$12M.

Other prominent 49ers I predict are re-signed are Kyle Juszczyk, Jason Verrett and Kerry Hyder. Juice clearly wants to be back, and it is known the 49ers have a strong interest in bringing him back. I think a 3-year contract giving him around $15M in total may make sense for both parties, with a 2021 cap hit of around $3.5M. In my opinion Hyder and Verrett will struggle to get the market they may be hoping for; Hyder because of the glut of edge players available and Verrett because of his injury history. I’m thinking both guys get two year, incentive-laden deals, with cap hits in 2021 of $3.5M and $3M respectively.

The above re-signings will take up approximately half of the $40M FA kitty.

I expect the 49ers will also keep in close contact with guys like K’Wuan Williams, Jaquiski Tartt, DJ Jones, Ben Garland and Kendrick Bourne to see how a market develops for them, and if a couple of them can be brought back on the cheap they will. But I don’t think the 49ers will push too hard for any of them, and I think Saleh will chase a few of them. A couple of vet minimum (or just above) guys I think they will also keep tabs on are Dion Jordan and Jamar Taylor, both of whom provided quality snaps when called upon last year, though Taylor’s knee injury may impact on his status.

In terms of outside FAs, in my opinion the 49ers will focus on filling out their secondary, adding quality depth at edge, as well as signing a centre and reliable 3^rd WR.

I think their priority, assuming K’Wuan Williams leaves, will be slot DB Mike Hilton from the Steelers. He looks like the type of player the 49ers would really like to add. I could see them adding Hilton on a 3-4 year deal, averaging $4M-$5M a year, but with a 2021 cap hit of only around $3M. Cory Undlin, the 49ers new DBs coach, is also known to be a big fan of Jalen Mills from their time together with the Eagles. If they lose Tartt I could see them adding Mills to provide depth to the secondary as a S/CB hybrid, likely playing next to Ward, on a 2-3 year deal at around $3M-$4M a year (also with a 2021 cap hit of around $3M). I wouldn’t be surprised if they also looked at taking a flyer on a high end CB talent that is available on the cheap due to disappointing play or injury in the same vein they did with Verrett. Someone like Gareon Conley could be a guy to keep an eye on.  

At edge, a guy like Ryan Kerrigan would make sense as a veteran that still has something to offer in a rotational role but can likely be had on the relative cheap, with incentives. Something like a 1-year $3M deal that can rise with incentives may make sense. But there are plenty of options available, and while I doubt they will be able to sign one of the top guys if they re-sign Trent Williams, I would be very surprised if someone wasn’t added. Some younger options that could be of interest are Jordan Jenkins and Samsum Ebukam.

At centre, Alex Mack just makes too much sense as a stop gap and mentor for a rookie, given his history with Shanahan and his comments this offseason that he would be interested in a reunion. A 1-year deal for ~$5M is what I am thinking, and like Kerrigan, with potential to rise based on incentives.

At WR, as I wrote in my last article, a reunion with Emmanuel Sanders would make a lot of sense to provide a nice veteran presence to help the development of Deebo and Aiyuk and offer a reliable 3^rd WR option. With a lot of WRs available this year and salary cap constraints, and given his age, a two-year deal paying $14M in total may be sufficient, and they could likely keep the 2021 cap hit down to around $5M.

The above signings I believe can be had for around $40M against the cap. Other guys will also likely be added/ re-signed on at or close to the vet minimum to provide depth and competition in training camp. And it should be kept in mind that as guys are signed, bottom of the roster guys will stop counting against the cap – with the nine signings above that would take around $6.5M to $7M off the cap as other players are pushed out.

The above approach would mean the team could enter the draft without having any glaring needs they have to address with premium picks, so they can focus on adding talent as they see fit rather than feeling pressured to reach or overpay for a player.

That’s what I am expecting this FA period. How do you see the 49ers attacking FA this year?

Update: Richburg has restructured his deal, taking a pay cut to save $6.875M against the cap, and is expected to retire. For accounting purposes it will be interesting to see if they ask him to hold off retiring until after June 1 to push some of the prorated signing bonus to 2022 - if he retired before June 1 they will lose around $3.5M of the cap space they just generated.