Just one more thing…how we feeling about this draft class?
2nd (33): WR De’Zhaun Stribling, Miss
3rd (70): DE Romello Height, Tex Tech 3rd (90): RB Kaelon Black, Ind 4th (107): DT Gracen Halton, Okla 4th (127): OL Carver Willis, Wash 4th (139): CB Ephesians Prysock, Wash 5th (154): LB Jaden Dugger, Louisiana 5th (179) Enrique Cruz Jr. OT Kansas
The theme of the draft was to add athletes.
ReplyDeleteNot going to lie, pretty uninspiring haul imo. But that was always a risk out of this draft - just not a lot of quality.
Of the group, I expect Height to be the one that sees the most action as a rookie. Stribling is more one for the future as WR is a bit of a logjam, while Black probably needs injuries ahead of him to get a lot of action this year.
Halton and Willis will be interesting to see if they can carve out (see what I did there?) playing time in 2026. The others are development/ STs guys for now you'd expect.
I don't have an assessment of the players as I don't watch college football, for the most part, but I just wish they had a poker player in the room to try and max out the "value" of picks relative to the league- Ozzie Newsome was a phenomenal GM due in large part to hitting the drafts........ hopefully, some picks pan out, but 49ers maybe need to evaluate the draft room.
ReplyDeleteAll these lists and rankings are done by people who don’t play football or ever did and not at a high level. The people who do the draft are professionals who do this full time. I think it’s rather hilarious when we criticize a pick because he was taken by professionals at a spot hire than the non professionals ranked him.
ReplyDeleteThe Niners, however, have room full of professionals scouts, coaches, etc. and they collaborate on who to pick. A player can be worthless to one team and highly needed by another. It’s not a science by any means. I don’t advocate that the Niners need to overhaul their draft room because they didn’t follow the rankings of journalists.
I know that many fans have a lot of fun doing mock drafts as well they should. Just don’t take yourself too seriously. You do it for fun. Teams do it to keep their jobs.
All good points. But... also worth noting that, historically, players that are drafted significantly higher than consensus draft boards have a much lower rate of success relative to other players drafted in that range. So consensus draft boards aren't nothing.
DeleteAnd if the 49ers had a good track record of drafting guys above consensus working out it would be an easy thing to dismiss. However... the track record on guys they've drafted well above consensus is about as good (bad?) as it is league wide.
Your last sentence compares the Niners to league average but not to the consensus of non professionals. Somehow all those Niners drafts have lead to good teams. Other than their first year, their losing seasons have been caused by injuries to key players. I’ll stick to my opinion that professional teams, where jobs are on the line, are the real consensus.
DeleteNo, my last sentence compares 49ers to consensus big boards, and outlunes that other teams that do the same also don't tend to fare that well.
DeleteIt's not my opinion. It's based on analysis done by others of how draft picks pan out. I don't have the analysis for you, but I know Sam Monson recently talked about it if you want to track something down.
You're in luck - found it.
Deletehttps://www.wideleft.football/p/the-2025-nfl-consensus-big-board
I do the draft for fun because I'm a nerd. I did Dungeons and Dragons as a kid. This is my adult fun, but I'll say this, Shanahan and Lynch have a good track record of winning football games and that's good enough for me.
ReplyDeleteYes, they win football games with the way they think. This year they are going to the SB and play the Chargers.
DeleteAlso another great point. The 49ers have played a lot of good football over the past 7 seasons. And they'll likely continue to do so.
DeleteBut, that also doesn't mean they always draft well or shouldn't receive any criticism for things they do that have shown historically to not work well.
Their best draft picks have tended to be guys that were taken around where they were expected to go or higher - i.e., guts considered to be pretty good value by draft boards.
But the track record on guys they have drafted earlier than expected is not good.
Do you have facts to back up your last sentence?
DeleteSure. Pettis, Moore, Davis-Price, Latu, Moody, Guerendo.
DeleteHopefully Pearsall can stay healthy this year and be a guy that bucks the trend.
Oh please. That’s minor evidence at best. You actually appear to believe that journalists who produce these rankings or consensus are better at drafting than the professionals. If that so called consensus is so good, why don’t teams fire their scouts. Teams always say they don’t care what that consensus is. Lunch just today in answer to a journalist question said the only consensus he cares about is the one in the team.
DeleteLynch not lunch
DeleteLol. See my post with a link above for the broader anslysis on it. But end of the day if you don't want to believe those are examples that clearly fit the broader league wide evidence, that's your prerogative.
DeleteAnd no, teams should not fire their scouts. That is not what this analysis suggests nor what I am remotely suggesting. But it is another data point for scouting that history suggests can be useful as part of evaluating prospects.
And I am also not saying that any one individual is better than an NFL team at scouting. But as a collective? Well, as I said to start, they aren't nothing that should be dismissed as irrelevant.
DeleteK.J. Wright
ReplyDeleteHeight: 6-4
Weight: 246
Arm:: 34 ⅞
Round: 4 (2011)
K.J. Wright’s newest pupil, Jaden Dugger
Height: 6-4 ¾
Weight: 242
Arm: 35
Round: 5 (2026)
Bill Walsh never cared where a player was drafted and he put the onus on the coaches to make sure that player succeeded.
ReplyDeleteAnother awesome point. Once they are drafted, draft position doesn't matter (well, outside of how many chances a guy may get).
DeleteBut, again, history shows that the higher someone is drafted, the more likely they are to be good. And that drafting guys above consensus rankings has a lower chance of success relative to other guys drafted that range.
Up to these guys to buck trends.
Shanahan says "a couple" of the 49ers' 8 draftees have a chance to start in 2026. He says many of them will have a chance in 2027.
ReplyDeleteI'll make the first bold prediction. Carver Willis wins the LG job.
ReplyDeleteHope so. My bold prediction is he is a borderline cut from the 53, fighting with Zakelj as 9th OL. Jones wins the LG job, Colby the backup OG, Toth the backup center.
DeleteI thought Willis' tape was day 2 level. If things work out he could be the next Zach Tom.
Delete🤞
DeleteThe best argument against anyone saying the 49ers understanding of draft boards is wrong is the number of guys they brought in with late day 3 grades that have made it to UDFA. They've done their homework on guys they can now go get.
ReplyDeleteIllinois DT James Thompson and Penn St TE Khalil Dinkins signing as UDFAs. Both getting a good chunk of guaranteed money.
ReplyDeleteIndisna DE Mikail Kamara also signing, as well as ND WR Will Pauling.
DeleteI like the UDFA signings on the DL.
Why would KS say only a couple of the draft picks can start this year?
ReplyDeleteAs a coach it is your job to say “Compete, and let the best man will win the job”
The way Cignetti runs his football program at Indiana it's no wonder the 49ers are bringing them in as its right in line with their core beliefs.
ReplyDeleteGo get Louis Moore.
DeleteBoykin signed with Steelers... would have liked him.
Hey guys, mark my words, Enrique Cruz Jr., OT out of Kansas, is a starting OT in the NFL! GREAT PICK! DT Gracen Halton & CB Ephesians Prysock are almost on par in terms of late round pick VALUE. In case you guys haven't figured it out, it's the early pick that tend to be reaches (Shanahan fingerprints), while the later picks are the regime's (49ers as an entire org) strength in terms of draft strategy. The end result is almost always extremely impressive in terms of culture setters, which is why the 49ers organization is always at the top of the league in terms of WINNING CULTURE!
ReplyDeleteYou really can't fairly evaluate a draft class for 2 years but I will give
ReplyDeletemy immediate impression of this years class. I love the Height pick I think he will fill a Swiss army knife role in Morris's defense. I give that pick an A grade. I like the Black pick but can only give it a B/B- because of the reach. I like the Halton pick. I think he could become a big part of Kocurek"s turbo package. I give that pick a B grade. I am okay with the Halton pick I hope he can win the left guard but I wouldn't bet on it C+ grade. I believe that every other pick was a reach and I give the rest of the draft (including Stribling) a D/D- grade. I see most of the rest of the draft as PS players. My total draft grade is a C-/D+ grade. I hope I am wrong
Coach what's wrong with Stribling?
DeleteUC,
DeleteI have 2 problems with Stribling. #1 I think the 49ers had much bigger needs with their 1st pick than WR. #2 I think he was an enormous reach. I believe they could have landed him with their second pick in the 2nd round or later. If he was a good returner I would feel a little better but he isn't. He will likely end up filling the #4 WR role and their 1st pick of the draft should not be WR 4. There were a number of very good OGs left who would have been plug and play.
Niners are expected to sign Notre Dame safety Jalen Stroman, per mzenitz.
ReplyDeleteNow, the litmus test on these players will take place in TC. It's going to be interesting to see which players rise to the top.
ReplyDelete