San Francisco:
-11 expected points added on Special Teams
-65% 3rd down conversion rate
-no turnovers
-average starting field position: SF46
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Once, Twice, Three Times A Winner
And you're the #1 seed. Win 2 more and you're in the Super Bowl. Any believers out there?
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The San Francisco 49ers are 20-6 when the Three Amigos are on the field together. If they stay healthy you can forget about a "rebuil... -
The postseason is a year away. Win or lose the only thing they're playing for today is pride. Another opportunity to advertise your wo... -
Nope, it's not a misprint. After trading up to the #3 pick from #12, the 49ers have put themselves in a position to select their franch...
Browns game had the potential to be a banana skin in large part due to weather, as well as due to being a very good D with a DC that has a history of besting Kyle. But they played it smart, played it clean, and took the opportunities when they presented themselves.
ReplyDeleteSo far doing a good job of winning the games they should win. Next up Titans after the bye - can't afford to take it lightly.
Dude I was shocked Shanahan took the ball after winning the toss. That's the first time I remember him doing that and I think it had to do with wanting the wind at his back in the 4th quarter.
DeleteYeah possibly. I think as much as anything he wanted to try and play from ahead, and not have to chase it against that D in those conditions.
DeleteHe's really growing as a HC this year.
Delete“I wanted a chance to choose to have the wind at our back in the fourth quarter,” Shanahan said, “and that was the only way to get that done.”
DeleteFirst time since 2019 the Niners held back to back opponents under 10 points.
ReplyDeleteQB Performances:
ReplyDeletePurdy 0.13 EPA/Play vs #4 DEF
Sanders -0.23 EPA/Play vs #26 DEF
Matthew Stafford fumbled in the rain against the Panthers. He's got problems with a wet ball. Am I doing this right?
ReplyDeleteMaybe his SB ring caused the fumble. Sure, I'm being fecitious, but my standard for any 49ers QB is winning SuperBowls. I hope Purdy is that QB.
DeleteOne more pick 6 and Matthew Stafford ties Brett Favre for the most in NFL history (32).
ReplyDeleteI had a dream:
ReplyDelete1. 49ers win out.
2. Seahawks beat the Rams in Seattle.
3. Packers lose one of two games against the Bears.
49ers finish with the #1 seed in the NFC.
I think the Packers just need to lose one game. It doesn't have to be just the Bears I don't think.
DeleteI like your dream. Mine includes a Super ball victory.
DeleteWe have a lot going for us. We can just sit back and watch the other NFC "contenders" kill each other next week starting with Lions vs Cowboys and Bears vs Packers.
ReplyDeleteWe have only 1 road game left against the Colts, who are imploding, have Buckner on IR and Sauce got injured today. Daniel Jones is playing injured too. We also have an Ace up our sleeve in Gus Bradley who knows the Colts Offense & Defense in-n-out.
We have 3 home games. Titans should be easy as we will have the rest advantage....and well, titans are mostly awful.
Bears will be tricky, but I believe it will be the "Coach of the Year" bowl between KS and Ben Johnson and being on Sunday night, KS will be dialed in.
Purdy always plays Seattle tough and he is for Seattle what Russ W was for us. So that game is winnable and Darnold usually falters when the lights are brightest.
So, we just have to take one game at a time, be buttoned up and playoffs will just be the starting point for us. No matter how this season turns out, I'm so incredibly proud and pumped up with the Grit of this team!
Well said!
DeleteI don't want to jinx anything but I believe that the 9ers will beat Tenn. Then they only need 1 more win for me to hit my prediction of 11 wins Although if I had known they were going to have as many injuries as they have had I never would have predicted 11.
ReplyDeleteKeion White generated his second-highest pressure rate (28.6%) of his career against the Browns, per NextGenStats.
ReplyDeleteThe DE position next year should be the deepest it has been in years. Bosa, Huff, White, Ferrell and Sam Okuayinonu is a restricted FA. Looks like no reason to draft any DEs
DeleteI strongly disagree with that last sentence, though I agree the unit will be deep with MFL calibre talent.
DeleteProblem is, they still only have one really good pass rusher in that group (Bosa), and one pretty good (Huff). The rest are effort guys, good against the run, but not really guys you expect more than 4-5 sacks from, and two of them are more interior rushers (Williams and White).
They need a 3rd true edge rusher to add to the rotation imo.
I agree. They need and should always be looking for a good edge rusher.
DeleteOh they will draft at least one edge rusher I can guarantee you that.
DeleteBest pressure-to-sack ratio (minimum 70 dropbacks under pressure)
ReplyDeletePurdy 5.8%
Prescott 9.7%
Nix 9.8%
Darnold 10.4%
The gap between Purdy and the rest is very impressive.
DeleteGreat individual efforts from Clelin Ferrell, Skyy Moore and an improving defense in yesterday's win. Also, Purdy has not shown any I'll-effects re his toe injury which bodes well down the stretch run.
ReplyDeleteI wish that defense would tackle better.
DeleteI tried to point out that you can't "hit" Judkins down. You have to wrap him up like a Christmas present.
DeleteExactly. Back in the day, Seahawks were one of the best tackling teams in football. With Saleh and Bradley now with the 49ers, I expect to see the tackling improving week. So far, it's been a work in progress.
DeleteThe Rams have peaked. The 49ers have not. Arrows up baby!🏹
ReplyDeleteThis team has just as much of a shot at getting to the Super Bowl as any one of the other playoff teams.
ReplyDeleteI agree but earlier in the season after losses to Bosa, Warner and Purdy I sure didn’t think so. It’s crazy how well this team has performed. This is a great organization with great coaches. They draft the right guys and coach them well.
DeleteI still think they'll get found out come playoff time, but they're a well coached team that keeps finding ways to win, which gives them a shot.
DeleteI believe the coaching staff could be the determining factor.
DeleteI keep thinking SB then I think of the defense brings me back to reality. In the playoffs anything can happen...
DeleteUnder, that's pretty much where I'm at. Given the injuries the defense is doing a great job, but they're not really being tested too much the past few weeks. Rams cut through them with ease. I think against the better teams they'll get shown up a bit.
DeleteGus might have something cooking back there with Mustapha the missle and Brown the basher.
DeleteSan Francisco owns the league’s 4th-best defense at limiting explosive plays.
DeleteScooter,
ReplyDeleteI agree. I am just enjoying this playoff run. Depending on the match up I think they may be able to win one playoff game
Considering Shanahan has never gone one and done in the playoffs that's not much of a prediction.
DeleteThis team as currently constructed will make it to the NFC Championship game.
I hope you are right. I just don't see it happening without Williams, Bosa and Warner. That being said it is a weird year in the NFL
DeleteOldCoach, you never want to rule out a gritty, opportunistic team on a roll.
DeleteMike Shanahan in '97 coached a 12-4 wild card team to a SB. That team had to win every game on the road or against higher-seeded teams to reach the SB.
DeleteLest we not forget the following players are earmarked for return:
ReplyDeleteYGM
Sam O
Bethune
Cowing
Another thing that bodes well aside from the 49ers ascending at the right time and getting reinforcements is their final 3 games are all playoff teams which will keep their iron sharp as they enter the playoffs.
ReplyDeleteTop 5 offenses in the NFL in EPA per play since Week 9 without garbage time:
ReplyDelete1) Rams - 0.255
2) Seahawks - 0.144
3) 49ers - 0.128
4) Bears - 0.128
5) Packers 0.107
Top 5 in success rate:
1) Rams - 57.7%
2) Seahawks - 51.4%
3) 49ers - 49.4%
4) Bears 48.7%
5) Cowboys 47.9%
FB Kyle Juszczyk sustained a rib fracture and will be re-evaluated following the bye week.
ReplyDeleteLG Ben Bartch suffered a foot sprain and is likely out for the remainder of the season. He will likely head to injured reserve.
LB Nick Martin has entered the NFL's concussion protocol.
The 49ers had the following players in for tryouts today:
ReplyDeleteQB Taylor Elgersma
WR Javon Baker
WR Cole Burgess
WR Kobe Hudson
TE Tanner McLachlan
These three 9ers stock rose in the win against the Browns:
ReplyDelete* Skyy Moore: A month ago he was close to being pulled as a returner. But he flipped the script the past few weeks and added to it with his performance against the Browns. Moore ripped off a 66-yard punt return in the first quarter and gave the 9ers prime field position at the Browns' 16-yard line. It led to the 9ers scoring a TD.
The 9ers ST is now helping win games, not lose them and part of why they are 9-4.
* Clelin Ferrell, who the 9ers added to their PS a month ago, now has 4 sacks. He's tied for the most sacks with Bryce Huff and lead the D in sacks in the 4 games played. Ferrell deserves to be noticed for the spark he's giving the 49ers' pass rush. While not making a significant impact, his sacks and pressures are here and there, but he's giving the 9erD a spark and It's enough to make offenses keep an eye on him.
* Brock Purdy: What a nice bounce-back game from BP! He needed this performance after his last poor outing, where he threw 3 INT's.
While he didn't have an amazing game on the stat sheet, and he was not sensational throughout the game, he did make a handful of plays in the cold against a fairly elite defense, is noteworthy. And more importantly, it silenced his critics.
.
Every Shanahan-era 49ers playoff team has gotten at least as far as the NFC Championship Game.
ReplyDeleteThe 9ers Are Set to Place This Starter on Season-Ending IR!
ReplyDelete* KS said he expects the 9ers to place starting OG, Ben Bartch, on IR effectively ending his season.
Bartch exited the game against the Browns with a foot sprain. The 9ers fear he'll have surgery, as his injury may end up being a Lisfranc injury. The reality is Bartch is made of glass, he's always get injured. He exited the first 2 games of the season with an injury and was placed on IR entering Week 3 with a high ankle sprain.
Bartch made his return on Nov. 9 against the LA Rams. It only took 4 games for him to get injured again and be lost for the season.
* With Bartch out for the year, the 9ers will turn to Spencer Burford. He provided an immediate upgrade against the NY Giants when he returned from injury.
While it's unfortunate Bartch is out, the 9ers will have their best OG option at left OG, with Burford.
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ReplyDeleteBy the way, the last time the Niners beat the Browns in Clevland was Nov 1984 Montana was QB and the week prior he threw for four interceptions, sound familiar.
ReplyDeleteUC,
ReplyDeleteTo achieve the full circle of familiarity of the 1984 season the 49ers will need to win the Super Bowl. If they do this, this would be one of the greatest stories in 49ers history. Add to this winning on their own home field makes it a "Rocky" story in NFL folklore.
Very true. I think they can play with anybody except the Rams. Also, the best team doesn't win all the time.
Delete" Also, the best team doesn't win all the time."
DeleteI couldn't agree more, UC.
But those teams are soon forgotten. In a group of mountain climbers, it's the one that makes it to the top first that gets all the attention, someone once said.
I expect York will sign Shanahan in '26 to a 5 year $100M extension.
ReplyDeleteThis may come down to Shanahan's decision. No doubt that other teams will come calling for his services.
ReplyDeleteESPN's FPI projections for each NFC team to make the playoffs heading into Week 14:
ReplyDelete1) 49ers - 93.4%
2) Eagles - 92.6%
3) Rams - 92.4%
4) Packers - 90.8%
5) Seahawks - 89.4%
6) Bucs - 79.5%
7) Bears - 76.3%
8) Lions - 44.1%
9) Panthers - 23.4
10) Cowboys - 18.2%
The chances of each team winning their respective divisions:
1) Bucs - 78.9
2) Packers 57.3
3) Rams - 49.4
5) Bears - 35.2
6) 49ers - 26.1
7) Seahawks - 24.5
8) Panthers - 21.1
9) Cowboys - 10.1
10) Lions - 7.6
Steelers release Darius Slay. Should we sign him before the Rams do?
ReplyDeleteIf he clears waivers I'd be interested in getting him on the PS. He's 34, he's had niggling injuries this year, and his level of play has not been good. But still a nice vet option to be able to turn to if you get an injury.
DeleteWouldn't sign him to be a starter though. Not without a good pass rush in front of him.
Would you agree that is the Rams achilles heel defensively, CB?
DeleteCertainly an area they could improve
DeleteSteve Young believes nobody wants to see the 49ers in the playoffs:
ReplyDelete“How well are they coached to lose all their stars on defense? They have people out most of the season on offense and all of a sudden Mac Jones is a guy that everybody wants in the league. Just like Sam Darnold was. Let’s just tip our cap to the coaching, number 1, and let’s tip our cap to the culture of the place. Locker room, the leadership. Obviously they’ve got guys in the room that pull things together and so, how good are they? Good enough to threaten, and make people really—you talk about a tough out and they’re going to be in the playoffs. I think you can almost count on that. And so, who wants to play the 49ers? Nobody. So, for where they are with the personnel and what’s happened, it’s pretty remarkable. I think we’ve got to tip our cap to really everyone in the organization right now, to be 9-4.”
Said it all summer. Shanahan has gone to the NFC championship game every time and I wouldn't want to be the team that faces him in the playoffs.
If you put this team against the 2019, 2021, 2022 or 2023 playoff squads, I think they lose more often than they win.
DeleteHas no bearing on the here and now. How far you think they go? (with no further key injuries)
DeleteThis year is somewhat similar to 2021, they were riding Deebo that year like they are riding CMC now. Although in 2021 they were struggling somewhat down the stretch. I remember that went to Tennessee late in the year and got smoked. I believe that Jimmy G had a torn thumb ligament. But they beat the Rams in the last game and snuck in the playoffs and all the way to the NFC CG.
DeleteNo, no bearing on here and now, but that wasn't my point. Just highlighting that getting to the NFCCG in 4 out of 5 years also had something to do with very strong squads. Even 2021, as rib points out they had some deficiencies offensively, but that defense was good.
DeleteI think come playoffs (assuming they get there) the defense gets found out. Might win one game if they get a good matchup in wild card round. But highly doubt they get to an NFCCG.
There's not a team in the here and now that scares me.
DeleteBeating the Cards, Panthers and Browns has instilled more confidence than beating those teams merits.
DeleteGood teams beat the teams they're supposed to and the Panthers just beat the Rams, while the Browns defense is #2 in the league. I'm excited to see what the month of December has in store for the 49ers.
DeleteDepends on the matchup... if they get out of the wild card round. If we get someone like Philly, GB or Chicago I think I like our chances. If its LA, Seattle, TB or Dallas I dont like the matchup. Not because they are better than other teams but because all of those qb's if given time are capable of putting up points. Seattle less so because Sam doesnt scare me in big moments but that D is terrifying if they get out to an early lead.
Delete"IF", lmao. Shoup, I respect your opinions but let me ask you a question. Do you think any of the teams you mentioned WANTS to see the 49ers in the playoffs? I don't.
DeleteDo you reckon any team wants to face the Rams? Seahawks? We can keep going.
DeleteThey're all good teams and will be tough outings. Nobody will take the 49ers lightly, and nobody will take the other teams lightly.
When people start talking up how nobody wants to face a certain team it's because the team is recognised as the underdog, i.e., the team that's not expected to win that matchup but are good enough to make it a tough game and sneak the win.
Do I think any of what teams want to face the 49ers? Yeah, absolutely.
DeleteIf I were a fan most of those teams SF would be the matchup I would most hope for... even the ones that I give us the best shot against.
Well I've been talking to some Eagles fans and they want no part of the 49ers and given their post season record, I can't blame them as this is likely the best staff Shanahan has had in his tenure.
DeleteScooter, Rams and Seahawks? C'mon dude. Already beat the Seahawks with a turf toe qb and the Rams? They just lost to an inferior team. Their secondary will be their undoing mark my words.
We beat the Seattle with our starting D line and Warner. We beat the rams with Mykell and Warner and got smoked without them giving up 42 without them. If I see this D do well against even a mid level qb then I'll start to believe a bit more. Its just hard for me to believe a D that loses 2 DPOY candidates wont take a major hit.
DeleteWe're gonna beat Seattle again and whoever else they put in front of us!
DeleteThere is some talk about signing Laken Tomlinson who was just released from Houston.
ReplyDeleteTexans OL is trash so releasing Tomlinson isn't a good sign. Hard pass.
DeleteIs Conner Colby better than Tomlinson?
DeleteLikely.
DeleteRed-Zone Conversion Rate (since Week 6):
ReplyDelete1. Falcons, 76.2%
2. 49ers, 75.9%
3. Rams, 75%
The Path To The #1 Seed:
ReplyDelete49ers beat Titans
Packers beat Bears, lose to Broncos
Seattle beats Falcons, loses to Colts
Rams beat Cardinals, lose to Lions
Eagles beat Chargers, Raiders
Bears lose to Packers, beat Browns
Rams are still the team to beat, imho. Their loss to the Panthers is not a true representation of what and who they are. With Soff Goff seeming to revert back to his last year with the Rams, I don't give them any odds on beating the Rams. But, I certainly hope that the Rams lose that game.
ReplyDeleteAES ^
ReplyDeleteRomello Height, EDGE, Texas Tech is someone to keep an eye on through the draft process.
ReplyDeleteIMO, Height is a pass-rush specialist. At 6'3" X 240, 40 = 4.7s He will contribute on 3rd downs in the NFL, rather than an every-down player. His best Fit is an OLB in a 3-4.
DeleteThe 49ers offense is only going to improve. As a unit they haven't been on the field for more than a few games. That coupled with the reinforcements coming in I feel very confident in this teams trajectory and coming at the right time as well.
ReplyDeleteI agree with the offense improving. But, can they still beat teams like Seattle, Green Bay, Tampa Bay, and the Rams if they make it to the NFC Championship game? I know, there's no guarantee that they even face those teams. But on paper at least, the 49ers would likely be the underdog going in. I would love to see the 49ers shock the world and win the SB on their home field. I just don't see it happening.
ReplyDeleteA reciever you can get in the mid to later rounds I like is Josh Cameron. He could take over the Jennings Role. He's not overly athletic but damn he looks tough to bring down. Is a hard nosed blocker and punt returner to boot.
ReplyDeleteShoup
DeleteWhat round do you have WR Cameron, Baylor being drafted? I'm
seeing him drafted from the 4th, to the 6th Rd.
I'd guess around the 5th
DeleteWith Aiyuk definitely getting released.... I have a feeling we will sign JJ to a 1-2 year deal. He embodies what KS looks for in a WR and now that cap relief is imminent, he will be resigned is what I think.
ReplyDeletePlus Jordan Watkins, Cowing are all still inactive/and or cant get on field. So I don't think a WR will be top of Round 1. It will be DL again.