Tuesday, July 15, 2025

Offensive Output


 



















2025 NFL projected points, plays, passes, and runs.

36 comments:

  1. OLD ADAGE: Figures don't lie, but liars do figure.....
    * The 9ers 2024 season: 6 Wins --- 11 losses....And If that doesn't change in 2025, there'll be even MORE PAINFUL CHANGES!

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  2. Concerning JJ: He has a contract. Honor it. Trade him. Whatever. If it means we don't win as many games, I'm OK with that. I'd enjoy rooting
    anyway. One of the pleasures of having aged is that I can enjoy life irrespective results.

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    Replies
    1. If they like what they see in camp from their WR group, JJ may end up regretting this stunt.

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    2. Absolutely. Hadn't thought of that

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    3. Not honoring existing contracts is nothing new to the 49ers. Big names like Aiyuk and Bosa have asked for more money while under contract as well. I'd like to see the 49ers give Jennings a pay rise for 2025 and let him walk in 2026. This allows the young WRs more time prove themselves in real game situations. We have a nice albeit small example of what Pearsall brings to the table. Outside of him, that's it.

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    4. This is part of the business that is the NFL. The market dictates moves. JJ has vastly outplayed his contract and IMO also outplayed Deebo and Aiyuk last year, becoming WR1.

      Honoring contracts works both ways..... We didn't honor Campbell, Collins and Floyd's contracts did we? All 3 signed 2 yr deals IIRC and we cut them after 1 year.

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  3. Offenses tried to combat defensive adjustments by using the ground game in 2024. Last year 36% of all yardage gained was via rushing,#2 highest since 2008. RBs averaged 3.02 yards after contact per rush, #1 highest since 2006.

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  4. 6 days until vets report

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  5. “I want to be a mauler and put guys’ butts on their backs.” — Alabama’s Kadyn Proctor, all 6-7 and 366 pounds of him.

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  6. Marques Sigle no longer has an injury designation and is ready to go for training camp!

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  7. How important is it to generate explosive plays in the current NFL?

    last 5 years:

    if a drive has ZERO plays of 15+ yds:

    15% score rate
    6% TD rate
    0.7 points/drive

    if a drive has JUST ONE play of 15+ yds:

    60% score rate
    34% TD rate
    3.1 points/drive

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  8. 49ers have officially place rookie QB Kurtis Rourke (ACL) on the non-football injury list, perTom Pelissero. Getting the Kalia Davis treatment as expected.

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  9. Alfred Collins has signed. 4 years 10.3 mill 9 mill guaranteed.

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    1. Under Kocurek he might end up being the best iDL in the class.

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    2. Can't wait to have him line up against Puni and the rest of the guards. Iron sharpening Iron.

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    3. Great to have Collins in the fold. I expect Jennings and the FO to come to a resolution sooner than later as well.

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  10. RBs are averaging 1.9 fewer receptions per game than they were in 2017.

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  11. Alfred Collins finally signed per Adam Schefter!

    4 year 10.3M deal with 9M guaranteed. I love that we are the market setters....this should trigger many 2nd round picks to sign. Excellent move by the FO.

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  12. 5 days until vets report

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  13. Per ESPN’s Adam Schefter, multiple teams have reached out about Jauan Jennings’ availability. The 49ers have given them all the same answer....they 're not interested in moving Jennings!
    * There are various talking heads with opinions ranging from "pay him," to "trade him." IMHO, the 9ers would likely be willing to give him a new contract up a max of ~$13 Mil for 2025.

    BUT THAT COULD CHANGE:
    * If he, as has been reported, is demanding $19 Mil per year, or be traded, I see the 9ers trading him and getting a draft pick in return.
    * The Patriots may be the best option, if they're willing to give up a 3rd 2026 draft pick, possibly a 2nd Rd? Other teams, including Pittsburg, Cleveland, Raiders, Chargers and several others, have shown interest in acquiring Jennings, so the 9ers could accept the
    best offer.
    * Also, If the 9ers did decide to trade him, there are several free agent WR's still available that may be willing to sign a one year "prove it" deal for $13 Mil or less?

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    Replies
    1. George
      Keenan Allen's strength is his receiving ability, not blocking. He is excellent at running routes and catching the ball, but his fit within the specific blocking requirements of KS ZBS offense might be a drawback? * Amari Cooper is 31 y/o and looking for a multi year deal, but he's still unsigned, suggesting the 9ers may present an opportunity for a short-term deal with a lower base salary and incentives that could make it plausible.
      * Robert Woods is a 33 y/o veteran WR who has shown strong route running and blocking abilities and are valuable in a ZBS. (Likely a WR3), He's a potential value signing for the 9ers looking for a reliable, well-rounded receiver.
      * DJ Clark is 29 y/o and has the size (6' 3" X 200), known as a deep threat with good speed (4.34s 40). His fit in a ZBS would depend on his willingness and proficiency as a blocker as he's not always the most willing downfield blocker.

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  14. ** give up a 3Rd Rd 2026 draft pick**

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  15. Collins cleared for training camp practices starting July 23.

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    Replies
    1. GEEP,
      If the 49ers refuse to pay JJ his asking price, they should look to trade him for a 3rd rd pick in 2026.
      The above mentioned WRs aren't viable alternatives, imho.
      If Jennings is moved the 49ers should be able to compete until Robinson and Aiyuk eventually return. As much as I would like to see JJ stay, $19M is to high an ask.

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    2. AES
      Jauan Jennings signed a two-year contract extension in May 2024 that keeps him with the 9ers through the 2025 season.
      If the 9ers are going to get a draft pick for him, they'll have to trade him this year, before he becomes a free agent in 2026.
      NOTE: Spotrac's market value suggests a fair deal for Jauan Jennings would be another two-year extension worth $38.13 million. ($19.08 AAV).

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    3. GEEP,
      I was looking in the area of $12-14M for 2025. $19M for two years is a little steep for me, but if the 49ers feel that they could make it happen, then make it happen.
      The pigskin is in their corner now.

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    4. AES
      While we don't know what Jennings is asking the 9ers for, or if he's asking for a multi year deal? But assuming the 9ers don't trade him before TC begins (07/22), we should get a better idea of what his salary demands are?
      I expect the 9ers will be taking to his agents, Drew and Jason Rosenhaus, as well as discussions with other teams to see what they can work out, or what they can get in a trade?
      An extension is possible, due to a raise he deserves....BUT, a commitment by the 9ers FO to getting younger and cheaper this off season makes it hard to justify paying him more than ~$13 Mil per year. Especially after all the talented players they let walk away in the offseason.

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  16. I'm already rooting for Collins. Being willing to take a non fully guaranteed contract while other second rounders are holding out for it just to make sure he can be in camp shows a great mentality of wanting to be good and contribute asap

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    Replies
    1. Scooter
      Collins signing was smart in Three ways....
      A) He won't miss any needed time training with 9er coaches
      B) No fines for not signing his contract and holding out.
      B) He got >$9 Mil of his $10.3 Mil contract guaranteed. (~88%)

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    2. Given that TJ Sanders signed not long after, who was picked two spots earlier, with over $10M of his contract guaranteed, 49ers came out of this well. So Collins was clearly willing to give a little to get the deal done.

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    3. In saying that, as soon as Collins signed the market was set and others around him were always going to sign on similar deals - slightly more guaranteed for those selected higher, slightly less for those taken after. Nice to see the 49ers being the ones getting that ball rolling.

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  17. 4 days until vets report

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  18. “Coaches with the Cowboys have expressed that (Jaydon) Blue is borderline lazy and that the team is not thrilled with his work habits”

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Offensive Output

  2025 NFL projected points, plays, passes, and runs.