OldCoach 3rd of 3 mock drafts. Trade back mock$9ers trade their Rd 1 #11 pick to the L.A. Chargers for their Rd1 #22 pick, Rd2 #55, Rd 4 #125, Rd6 #181 and Rd 6 # 199
Rd1 #22 Walter Nolen DT Ole Miss
Rd2 #43 Josh Conerly OT Ore
Rd2 #55 Landon Jackson DE Ark
Rd3 # 75 Darius Alexander DT Toledo
Rd3 # !00 Harlod Fannin TE B. Green
Rd4 #113 Charles Grant OG Will and Mary
Rd4 #125 Chris Paul LB Ole Miss
Rd4 #138 Quincey Riley CB Louisville
Rd5 #147 Devin Neal RB Kan
Rd5 #160 Malachi Moore S Bama
Rd6 #181 Cobee Bryant CB Kan
Rd6 #191 J.J. Pegues DT Ole Miss
Rd7 #227 Jackson Hawes TE G. Tech
Rd7 #249 Andrew Armstrong WR Ark
Rd7 #252 Tyler Batty DE BYU
They are not on any of my 3 mocks but I really like Shemar Stewart and Jaylin Noel and would not be surprised if the 9ers choose either one. The last few drafts I have hit on maybe one pick each draft hopefully I can hit on a couple more this year
Correlation between each component and winning percentage since 2019 (EPA/Play Metric):
ReplyDelete1. pass offense: 0.72
2. pass defense: 0.54
3. rush offense: 0.48
4. rush defense: 0.24
When win prob is between 20% and 80%
pass o: 0.68
rush o: 0.52
pass d: 0.49
rush d: 0.34
Point diff:
pass o: 0.76
pass d: 0.62
rush o: 0.55
rush d: 0.32
A few people, including Benjamin Albright and Chris Simms, now saying that OL are going to come off the board much earlier than consensus thinks.
ReplyDeleteAlbright is legit. Not sure about Simms.
DeleteSimms, fair, he's a hack. But he waits until now to do his mock for a reason. He'll be talking to a lot of people that have done the homework for him.
DeleteSpeaking of which, Charles Robinson also saying it, who is a guy in the know.
I think there is more uncertainty going into this draft than any other draft in the last 5 to 10 years. At least in the 1st round
ReplyDeleteIt's the most consequential draft in this regimes tenure.
DeleteThis draft needs to produce at the very least 7 hits that either become D1Ss and or strong 2025-26 contributors. There have been many outstanding mocks presented by our great Inspired 49ers fanbase. I caught one mock earlier today on YouTube by Stephanie Sanchez and John Chapman that looked very good as well. One thing for sure as we all have said, this is a critical draft that could determine the direction of the 49ers one way or another for the next 4-5 years and beyond.
ReplyDeleteThis is exciting!
Stephanie Sancez is known for having the most accurate list of the 49ers 30 visits.
DeleteProblem is that getting that many hits in one draft is exceedingly rare.
DeleteAs I've mentioned in the past, imo between the 2024 and 2026 drafts the 49ers need to find at least 2-3 elite tier players as well as 8-9 starters (i.e., at least half the starting spots on the team) and a bunch of quality depth pieces. If they get more even better, but that'll take some great drafting over multiple drafts.
2024 looks like it will provide at least 4 starters (Pearsall, Green, Puni, Mustapha) and some quality depth. But tbd on if it will provide any elite tier guys.
Guerendo will likely start if CMC comes up injured again. Too bad they lost Kingston, a year under Foerster may have had him ready to step into Banks spot.
DeleteIf the 49ers have another losing season (which I highly doubt, but no guarantee) their drafting position in 26 might look similar to this one. Of course, a winning season could place them in the 18-26 draft range. That's why this draft needs to produce a couple of starters and solid contributors.
ReplyDelete7 starters/ big time contributors is still a lot from one draft.
DeleteThey'll likely be getting 3 4th round comp picks next year, which will help.
Yeah, that's really wishful thinking on my part. But, this haul definitely needs to provide a fresh group of players that can provide some positive help this season and beyond. The 49ers can't place all their bets on TW and CMC much longer. Aiyuk is questionable and even if TW is at 100% there is still needs along the Oline, also Edge, LB, CB, TE (backing up Kittle). This is a very important draft for the 49ers, indeed.
DeleteTwas the day before draftmas. 1 day until the draft
ReplyDeleteLet's go, Coach!
ReplyDeleteAES / Scooter
ReplyDeleteEveryone says the 9ers need to draft "X" number of successful players to remain a contender. Not that I disagree, but the 9ers success will also depend on the following players being a success as starters.
1) BP, CMC and TW staying healthy (assuming BP signs extension).
2) Guerendo providing rotation relief for CMC
3) Barch, or Burford, stepping up as the starting LOG
4) LB Winters, DE Gross-Matos and CB Green success as starters
5) DT's Elliott, Davis, Givens and Anderson as rotation players or as
a starter early in the season, giving rookies time to get used to NFL.
6) Finding someone that can kick field goals
7) Upgrading Special Teams, so they're no longer a liability.
Good post GEEP- I agree. I think the team built as-is can compete, and if Winters can produce as hoped, and Brock utilize his scrambling, then shut down the run should be the focus this off-season- that will really lead to success in the Division. They "need" to hit this draft due to draft position-seeing that they shouldn't be back in the 11-slot anytime soon again, hopefully.
DeleteShore up the defense and I have no doubts that the Niners will be back in the playoffs. There is still enough talent on offense to generate points. Of course, injury....
DeleteMy point is more about 2026 and beyond. Not that I'm giving up on 2025, but I see this year more as a transition year. Time to find the next core around BP, Bosa, Fred, Aiyuk and Demo, as TW, Kittle and CMC age out.
DeleteScooter
DeleteYes, do I understand your point was about 2026, and I don't disagree. I was just pointing out what needs to happen with
respect to 2025, before discussing needs in 2026 draft.
There will be less pressure on 2026 draft, if the players mentioned, step up in 2025 season and become successful
starters.
Agree with you on all counts, GEEP. I'm that Evan Anderson can make a big leap from last year. He could turn out to become the answer at helping plug the gaps at the ID. Our Safety position also needs more speed. Mustapha was a pleasant surprise, but he doesn't have the speed that is vital for his position.
ReplyDeleteThe 49ers need speed at many positions atm.
I'm *hoping* that Evan Anderson...
ReplyDeleteI would contend, if the 9ers' front office, led by JL successfully drafts players and constructs a contending team for the 2025 season, Lynch will be a candidate for NFL Outstanding GM! The success of the draft, and the subsequent performance of the team on the field, will be the primary factors in determining his candidacy!
ReplyDeleteAbsolutely should be if they are true contenders in 2025.
DeleteYahoo sports 2025 Round #1 draft projects Michigan DT, Mason Graham falling to the 9ers at Rd one, draft pick #11.
ReplyDelete* While l'll be shocked if it happens, it would be a dream come true if it does!
Tony Pauline final mock has San Francisco taking Walter Nolen, and mentioned he was in consideration for Carolina who ended up going Walker.
ReplyDeleteRazor
DeleteThe question with Walter Nolen is where will he be drafted, Rd #1, or Rd #2?
* The perfect solution for the 9ers is: Graham Rd 1, Draft pick #11 and DT Walter Nolen falling to the 9ers in Rd 2... California dreaming classic....Mamas and The Papas!
I'm starting to hear Nolen is firmly in the mix at 11. And could go higher.
DeleteScooter
DeleteYep, I see ESPN mock NFL draft has Nolen in Rd #1, top 10.
We should know who's drafted in Rd #1 by the end of Thursday.
But If memory serves, you're something like 18 hours ahead of
us in California?
I can't recall exactly how many hours ahead, but yeah, the draft starts 10am Friday my time.
DeleteSome much needed GOOD NEWS:
ReplyDeleteReport: Purdy, 49ers ‘inching' toward top-10 AAV QB contract originally appeared on NBC Sports Bay Area...
* There appears to be progress in the ongoing Brock Purdy 49ers contract saga. After months of negotiations, the two sides slowly but surely might be headed toward a deal.
Purdy and the 49ers are “inching closer” to a long-term extension that is expected to include an average annual value that ranks in the top 10 at the position, The Athletic’s Diana Russini reported in a story on Wednesday, citing sources close to the situation.
Is Nolen much better than the remaining DL left on the board?
ReplyDeleteUC
DeleteFor the 9ers, the question is how does Nolen fit the system?
* The 9ers D-Line coach, coach Kris Kocurek, wants his DT's
to penetrate and pressure the QB. Nolen, IMO, is the 2nd top
penetration DT in the draft and possibly #1. (Graham is the #1 DT in the 2025 draft).
* Nolen plays with impressive strength, including against double teams, making him a disruptive force against both the run and the pass.
* Nolen can line up in a variety of positions, including the 3 technique in even fronts and 4i-technique in odd fronts, making him a versatile option.
* Nolen has character issues that will cause some teams to
refuse to draft him, while other teams will draft him, but in a later round. (2nd Rd). He also has some flaws that will require NFL coaching. He occasionally struggles to get off blocks in the run game and he needs to maintain a consistently low pad level to maximize his power and leverage against the run and in pass rush. Nothing NFL coaching can't fix.
My dream scenario would be #11 - Graham.
ReplyDelete#43 - Scourton. This covers the need along the Dline. Graham is a D1S and Scourton receives significant snaps and becomes a starter by game 4-6.
AES
DeleteI agree with you on Scourton at #43, but it's likely the 9ers would have to trade up to early Rd #2 to draft him. I'd be surprised if JL & KS would be willing to do that? So hang your draftmas stocking on the fireplace and hope Santa fills it with players you want the 9ers to draft. And a merry draftsmas to you and all the 9er fans..lol
Latest reports/ rumours I'm hearing is the team is down to 3 main names - Nolen, Williams and Stewart. And likely in that order. But not sure what would happen if Graham was available.
ReplyDeleteScooter
DeleteAs I said, I'd be shocked if Graham fell to #11. But if he did, I
believe the 9ers would jump at the chance to draft him?
I can't think of a reason why they wouldn't draft him, can you?
I think the main questions around Graham is whether his ceiling is much higher than what he already is. The "safe" option, but may never be more than a good player.
DeleteI said it from the get go that Graham was at his ceiling whereas Nolen was an ascending player. Those 3 are the ones we all identified as the choice. Good job Scooter!
DeleteIf production matters, Mason Graham is that guy. PFF has him rated as the top ID with a 91.1 in 2024. For me the question is, do I want a player that has a high ceiling or a player that has already established himself as the best ID in 2024. I'm going with the latter.
ReplyDeleteI guess it depends on what you mean by production.
DeleteNolen had more sacks, pressures and run stops than Graham in 2024.
Yet, Graham is the top rated DT (PFF). His tape is very impressive as well. I can't say for sure that MG will fall to #11, but his 24 college play is the reason why the majority of reputable mocks view him as a top 10 pick. The proof will be in the pudding tomorrow.
ReplyDeletePFF is, well, PFF. It's a guide. Graham is by far and away the most consistent of the DL. Very few bad plays. And enough really good plays to think he'll be a good NFL player. And that combo is why he grades out so well by PFF.
DeleteBut in terms of top end plays, Nolen provided more. And is easily the better athlete. There's a very good reason Graham gets called by many of the draft exerts as a high floor player as well as a "double" type draft pick, but not a "home run".
I'm not trying to suggest Graham isn't a good prospect or that if available at 11 the 49ers would pass on him. Just providing the context of why it maybe wouldn't be the slam dunk pick it may seem.
Fair enough, Scooter. I wouldn't be mad at all with Nolen at #11. There's really no telling what Lynch and Shanahan have up their sleeve atm. The dust will settle tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteScooter / AES
ReplyDeleteThere may come a day that AI can successfully predict an NFL draft prospects "ceiling?" But for now, it remains an inexact science.
If there were those that could predict a prospects ceiling, there would be no 7th Rd, or UDFA players draft, that were later named all pro. And BP would NOT be negotiating for a top 10 QB salary.
Good take, GEEP.
ReplyDeleteBut, I for one hope that (AI) never gets involved with the NFL draft. I mean, what the heck would we have to talk about and sometimes debate leading up to the draft. Just saying, lol.
AES
ReplyDeleteI don't disagree with you. But sad to say, we both know that there will eventually be teams that try.
Draftmas is here!
ReplyDeleteThanks for the countdown, Coach!