By Scooter_McG
The 49ers are off to Mexico to face the Cardinals on Monday Night Football. This is technically a home game for the Cardinals, but early reports indicate more than 80% of tickets have been sold to 49ers fans, adding Estadio Azteca to Levi's Stadium and SoFi Stadium as part of the ever expanding list of 49ers home fields.
This game has added importance for the 49ers. Not only is it a division game, giving the 49ers a chance to take their division record to 4-0, but a win on Monday will see the 49ers move ahead of the Seahawks into first place in the NFC West courtesy of head to head and division record (with the Seahawks having the bye this week so remaining at 6W-4L this week).
On the injury front, the 49ers appear to have come out of the Chargers game without any new injuries. However, based on practice participation this week, it also appears none of the players that missed the Chargers game will be ready in time for the Cardinals, meaning the DL will remain relatively thin. For the Cardinals, QB Kyler Murray is the big question mark as he has been a limited participant this week due to a lingering hamstring strain. If he can't go the 49ers will be facing Colt McCoy. DeAndre Hopkins also found himself on the injury report this week with a hamstring issue though the Cardinals have downplayed the severity and it sounds like he should be fine to play. The Cardinals also opened the return from IR for Hollywood Brown who, if active, could provide a downfield element the team has been sorely lacking.
Regardless of whether Murray plays the 49ers should be capable of winning this game. The While the Cardinals have played most games pretty close this season, their only wins have been against bad teams (Raiders, Panthers, Saints and Rams without Stafford). Much has been written about the mounting pressure on Kliff Kingsbury - enough so that GM Steve Keim gave him the dreaded public vote of confidence a week ago. The 49ers should be good enough to add to that pressure.
The Cardinals main weakness has been the passing game on both offense and defense. They are allowing just shy of a 70% completion rate on the season, contributing to their 22nd ranked net yards per attempt allowed. Part of the issue for the Cardinals defense has been an inability to turn pass rush pressure into sacks - despite posting solid team-wide pass rush win rates and pressure rates, they only have 19 sacks in 10 games. Another part of the issue has been getting players to ground. The Cardinals rank dead last in the NFL in yards allowed after the catch (6.2) and will be coming up against the league best YAC team in the 49ers (6.9).
On offense they have struggled to push the ball down the field leading to a 31st ranked NY/A of just 5.2. As mentioned above, the return of Hollywood Brown could help tremendously in opening the passing game up for the Cardinals and is something the 49ers will need to be wary of if he is active. I also wouldn't be surprised to see the 49ers move Charvarius Ward around to have him marking Hopkins most of the game.
Given the issues in coverage the Cardinals have had it will be interesting to see how they choose to defend the 49ers. If they play the run aggressively like recent 49ers opponents it could expose their main vulnerability, especially with DBs Byron Murphy and Budda Baker banged up. If they look to defend the pass it could give the 49ers a big advantage on the ground. I suspect that like previous opponents they will lean towards making Jimmy Garoppolo beat them through the air and this could be a big opportunity for the YAC brothers to rack up some explosive plays.
If Jimmy G continues to play the way he has been in recent weeks this feels like a game the 49ers should win pretty handily. But the Cardinals in recent seasons have made life difficult for the 49ers and it wouldn't be a surprise if this game ends up being a lot closer than it should be.
Nice write for the 9er VS Cardinal game Scooter. This should
ReplyDeleteindeed be a 9er W....And put the 9er back in first place.....
Ahh #%*^& I forgot to log in!
ReplyDeleteBit of that going around
DeleteZach Allen and Baker lead the defense in run stops, but the defense as a whole has missed a whopping 78 tackles. Look for Kittle to exploit Zaven Collins and Baker, who are part of the worst defense against TE's, giving up over 70 yards per game.
ReplyDeleteMcCoy got the ball out real quick last week. I think Rondale Moore is the one to watch in that quick passing game to counter the 49ers edge rushers. Shut him down and don't let Conner loose and San Francisco should head home victorious. Good write up, Scoot!
D-line coach needs to remind the guys that if QB is getting the ball out in 2 seconds they need to work on getting their hands up (both qbs are shorter) and batting balls down. Won't have time to get sacks but an inc or tipped INT are as good or better, as opposed to a rush that provides no pressure.
DeleteMaybe drop a de or dt into a short zone like Fangio too.
DeleteI believe the Niners are going to be able to run inside and outside. I believe the Niners will amass 200+ yards running the ball. Running is how the Niners win.
ReplyDelete* 49ers and Cardinals Odds, Bets and Point Total Breakdown
ReplyDelete* 9ers are 8.5-point favorites in NFC West showdown in Mexico City.
* Moneyline: 49ers (-350) | Cardinals (+275)
* Colt McCoy expected to start at QB for Cardinals vs. 49ers.
* Cardinals WR Marquise Brown will not play vs. 49ers.
No Murray and no Brown should make life a little easier for the 49ers.
DeleteOf course, last year the Cards beat the 49ers without Murray, Hopkins and Green. So they can't afford to take it easy and assume they've got the win.
GEEP,
DeleteLast week, I expected Niners to cover the spread. But at the last moment I bet against it thinking that the offense would sputter initially coming out of the bye. And it sure did. So I won on both counts (Niners straight up and Chargers covering the spread).
This week it should be a blowout win. Even if the offense muddles along (which wouldn't surprise me), they should be able to eke out a 2-score win with the help of the D. My big fear continues to be special teams.
Run the ball.
ReplyDeleteWhile a balanced attack is always a good bet, I'm beginning to think that Shanhan's over-reliance on the run game will eventually backfire deep in the play-offs when the run game gets effectively shutdown, especially in the second half.
DeleteLast week, the number of third longs were ridiculously high and their high percentage conversion is unsustainable.
Is it possible to have a polished, humming passing attack in post-season without systematically developing it in regular season? We'll find out, I guess.
Looks to me like the OL strength lies in the passing game thus far.
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