By Scooter_McG
The second of the 49ers two game east coast road trip takes the now 3-2 49ers to visit the 2-3 Atlanta Falcons. The 49ers are now on a two game winning streak with back-to-back comprehensive victories over the Rams and Panthers, and will be looking to maintain that momentum this week before the schedule starts getting a lot tougher.
But the 49ers also can't afford to be looking past this Falcons team. While they only have the two wins, they have played all five of their contests close and are yet to lose against the spread.
This game actually has the potential to be a tricky contest for the 49ers. Through the first five weeks it has been the 49ers number 1 ranked defense that has carried the team, but the injuries are now starting to pile up. And the success of the 49ers defense is predicated on their number one ranked run defense stopping the run to set up 3rd and long situations and get the opponent feeling like they need to go away from the run.
But under Arthur Smith, the Falcons have shown they are willing to commit to the run throughout the game even if it isn't providing big chunk plays, evidenced by the Falcons boasting the fifth most rushing attempts against the second fewest passing attempts this season. This keeps them in manageable third downs and over time wears down the defense - a philosophy 49ers fans should be well versed in given it is exactly how Kyle Shanahan likes to play the game. By committing to the run they have been successful on the ground as the game goes on, averaging 5.1 yards per carry overall, with a split of 4.5 ypc in the first half and 5.5 ypc in the second half as opponents get tired.
There is a chance the entire starting DL of the 49ers could be sitting this one out, and even if Bosa and Ebukam play, they are certainly not going to be 100%. If the 49ers can't stop the Falcons running game early on in this one, or if the 49ers offense isn't able to push the team out to a big lead by half time, there is a real risk the Falcons have the formula to come over the top late.
Making matters a little easier for the 49ers will be the absence of the Falcons leading rusher Cordarelle Patterson. But his replacements Allgeier and Huntley have also been performing very well this season, so the 49ers can't assume there will be a drop off.
So this takes me to what I see as being the keys to victory:
- Get the Falcons into third and long. The most likely way to come away with the victory in this one is to force the Falcons to put the game in Mariota's hands. We know the Falcons will commit to the run, but if the 49ers are able to consistently put the Falcons in 3rd and 5 or longer it will allow the 49ers pass rush to come into the game. The Falcons pass protection has been a weakness through five weeks and Marcus Mariota has been awful. It's a big ask for the 49ers banged up DL, but if they are up to the challenge it will go a long way to winning this game.
- The People's Tight End! George Kittle was a focal point of the 49ers passing game early on last week, but aside from that has been fairly invisible since returning from injury. But this week he should be targeted early and often throughout the game. The Falcons defense is not good, in particular their pass defense. And if there is one area in particular you can exploit it is over the middle. Time for Kittle to have a breakout game in 2022.
- Stick with the run. While the Falcons pass defense has been their biggest issue defensively, Kyle Shanahan has to remain committed to the running game. Usually this isn't an issue as Shanahan's preference is to be a run-first offense, but occasionally he can get cute when he thinks he sees a matchup in the passing game he can exploit. He needs to avoid getting cute here.
In addition to the above, as always the 49ers need to avoid beating themselves. When it comes right down to it this is a game the 49ers should win and should win fairly comfortably, so long as they play a clean game. But we all know this team has a propensity to beat itself early in the season. Avoid the big mistakes and keep the ball moving on offense and they should be able to come away with the comfortable victory here.
Containment of Grady Jarrett is a must if the Niners offense is going to do much.
ReplyDeleteMaybe Shanny has Brunny give his dissertation on Jarrett and his tendencies.
DeleteScooter, wrt Fangio, I'm certain they've been in consultation throughout the process as to how he would evolve with Kocurek. Fangio is a brilliant defensive mind, not to mention it would put an end to the revolving door at DC.
ReplyDeleteYeah, as I said in other post - he'd be the safe choice.
DeleteFor me this game comes down to one thing, turnovers. Can Jimmy G play another interception free game? If he does it'll be a personal record, because he's only gone two straight games without throwing one in his career.
ReplyDelete"The Broncos, 49ers, Rams and Bills are among the teams that have shown varying degrees of interest in McCaffrey."
ReplyDeleteGetting McCaffrey, so long as he doesn't cost an arm and a leg in trade comp, would be great. What a weapon he would be for Shanahan.
DeleteAnd his 2022 cap hit would be just a little over $1M, with palatable salaries for three further years if they want to keep him or the ability to cut bait at the end of the year for nothing.
The idea of McCaffrey sounds good, but are talking about the McCaffrey of a few years ago or the current one that has had a challenge of staying healthy for an entire season.
ReplyDeleteMcC, could likely be a viable weapon as a receiver out of the backfield, but after a few games defenses would work the Intel to stop him.
If we want (here I go again) another weapon on the offense, Juszczek is a very nice option as a receiver and he's already on the team 😉
Juice is great, but he's not the receiver McCaffrey is. CMC can legitimately beat DBs. Juice can be a surprise weapon out of the backfield.
DeleteFalcon's DC, Dean Pees, is in his 49th year of coaching. He was the Ravens' DC when they beat Harbaugh's Niners in the Super Bowl. Shanny won't be surprising him and his D. Niners' offense just needs to execute and assert their talent superiority.
ReplyDeleteScooter.
ReplyDeleteI agree with you on McC being the better weapon, but I'd be concerned about his injury record over the last few seasons. This is what gives me pause about him. The surprise factor with Juice is what makes him a nice weapon and unlike Christian, he can absorb much more punishment.
I don't believe the 49ers are all that interested in McCaffrey.
ReplyDelete