Examining the fit: Trey Sermon and Elijah Mitchell

By Scooter_McG

Kyle Shanahan has continuously outlined how the running game is key to his offense, not just during his time with the 49ers but also while an offensive coordinator. His offense is built off the run game, with a lot of his passing concepts designed to take advantage of the space created when teams over commit to stopping the run.

Shanahan has traditionally built his running game around the outside zone, and while that still remains the core of his running plan, his scheme has expanded significantly in recent years to adopt a lot more inside zone and gap concepts. He has also built in a lot of motion and misdirection to disguise who will get the ball, and quickly get the ball in the hands of his playmakers on the move.

The 2021 draft could well be Shanahan’s run game, positionless football symphony. They traded up to take Trey Lance at #3, a QB that is adept in the pocket but also provides the size, mobility and athleticism to threaten teams as a runner and force teams to play 11-on-11 football. The 49ers then proceeded to go about adding pieces that would make life a lot easier on their young QB and provide new dimensions to their run game. They brought in a couple of big interior OL that are both strong and mobile enough to run multiple schemes effectively, to protect their new QB and open holes for the running game. The 49ers also gave coach Bobby Turner some nice new toys for Draftmas in Trey Sermon (third round) and Elijah Mitchell (sixth round). These are two RBs that provide the size and agility to pick up yards in tight spaces, as well as the quickness and burst to stretch the field horizontally, hit holes on the perimeter, and provide explosive chunk yardage plays on any down.

At pick 88, the 49ers traded up to select Trey Sermon. After the pick, Lynch and Shanahan outlined that they had four RBs in this year’s draft rated in their top tier – Harris, Etienne, Williams and Sermon – and they didn’t want to leave the draft without one of them. Trey Sermon is a bigger bodied RB at a little over 6’0” and around 215lbs, and he uses his size effectively – he is a tough, powerful runner that can run through arm tackles, drag defenders, and is unafraid of contact. Sermon combines his powerful running style with surprising burst and acceleration for his size, as well as excellent agility and balance to make defenders miss in tight spaces with subtle and sudden lateral movements at speed to evade oncoming defenders. He also has the balance and power to glance off would be tackles, stay upright and maintain momentum. Sermon used his combination of power, burst, agility and balance to be one of the most elusive RBs in college over the past four years, forcing over 113 missed tackles during his three years at Oklahoma, and finishing off his college career on a two game tear against Northwestern and Clemson this past season where he forced 24 missed tackles on 60 carries. 

Sermon also has the patience to wait for blocks to develop and vision to find the running lanes (especially on the perimeter), where he can then use his wiggle and explosiveness to make defenders miss and burst through holes. This helped Sermon to record the highest yards per carry of the top backs in this draft against 8+ man boxes at 6.8 yards per carry over his college career (on 99 attempts). His ability to generate yards against stacked boxes will suit the 49ers offense well, where teams will often bring an extra defender to try and stop the 49ers vaunted rushing attack.

OSU uses a lot of outside zone concepts in their offense and Sermon’s mix of vision, power and burst was a perfect fit, which was highlighted by his 7.5 yards per carry average in 2020. Sermon was on a tear to finish the season gaining 636 yards in the last three games before the National Championship Game, at an average of 9.1 yards per carry. This included sparing OSU’s (and Justin Fields’) blushes against a strong Northwestern defense, where he ran for 331 yards.

Sermon didn’t get used much in the passing game throughout his college career, however, he has also shown decent hands when given the opportunity and is capable in pass protection.

It isn’t all rosy, though. Sermon does have a very upright running style, which can lead to him taking some big hits and leaving some yards on the field at the end of runs. However, this is a trait that is not uncommon to 49ers RBs, and is clearly not something that Bobby Turner considers an issue. Despite impressive acceleration and burst (evidenced by a 1.49s 10-yard split at his pro day) Sermon also lacks a high top end speed, and can be caught from behind. He also has seen his fair share of injuries throughout his college career, leading him to missing a number of games in 2019 as well as only getting one carry in the National Championship Game in 2020.

As a runner, Eric Crocker made what I feel is an excellent comparison for Sermon – Kareem Hunt. Sermon’s running style is very reminiscent of Hunt with his acceleration, power, contact balance and agility, though Sermon is taller. 

In the sixth round the 49ers went back to the RB well and added Elijah Mitchell from Louisiana-Lafayette. 

Mitchell, a three year starter for the Ragin’ Cajun, actually provides a lot of similar qualities as Sermon – he is a bigger bodied back at 5’11” and around 201lbs at his pro day (though he played at a heavier weight in college), and he is a powerful, aggressive runner with good burst. Like Sermon, he tested very well at his pro day in explosive and agility drills. But unlike Sermon, Mitchell also provides good top end speed clocking somewhere between 4.32s and 4.38s in the 40 at his pro day.

Mitchell is very good at letting blocks develop and accelerating into the hole once it opens. In this regard he’s very much the proverbial “one-cut runner” that fits perfectly within a zone blocking scheme. He can also be a load to bring down when he keeps his feet on contact to either break tackles or pick up extra yards, though he isn’t as adept at evading or breaking tackles as Sermon. Mitchell is also very good out of the backfield, with reliable hands and making more than one spectacular catch in his college career.

In total Mitchell amassed 3,267 rushing yards at 6.2 yards per carry and 41 TDs for Louisiana-Lafayette over four seasons, as well as 49 receptions for 597 yards and 5 TDs.

Mitchell looks like a nice complementary back for the 49ers system in the mold of Matt Breida, but with better size, power and hands. His speed and acceleration, combined with patience to let blocks develop and vision to find the hole when it opens, should fits the 49ers zone system nicely.

I expected the 49ers to draft a RB this year, but I had expected them to wait until Day 3, and I certainly hadn’t expected the team to draft two. But in hindsight adding two RBs to the roster makes sense. Shanahan's offense has always relied heavily on the run and the team has experienced considerable attrition at RB every year Shanahan has been in charge. And none of the RBs that were already on the roster were signed beyond 2021.

And the 49ers clearly made improving and solidifying the running game a priority, evidenced by all of the selections they made on offense. In my previous article examining the additions of Banks and Moore, I outlined that one of the best ways to protect the franchise QB is to give them not only solid pass protection, but also a strong running game they can lean on and keep the offense on schedule. The 49ers did just that in the 2021 draft, while also giving Kyle two explosive playmakers at RB that can be effective inside, outside as well as in the passing game.

While he may not start many games this year if Mostert remains healthy, barring injury I expect Sermon to see a lot of playing time as a rookie and it wouldn't surprise me if he is the 49ers lead yardage back by the end of the season. And given the injury toll the team has experienced in previous years it wouldn’t surprise me if Mitchell sees his fair share of snaps too. Looking beyond 2021, Sermon and Mitchell may well be the 49ers one-two punch for the foreseeable future.