That was fun, wasn’t it? Watching a team other than the 49ers beat the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. I mean what could be more fun than that, right?!
If you answered that sarcastic question with, “How about being in the Super Bowl and winning it,” then join the club. (What? Did you expect me to tell you to give yourself some type of reward?) That is how every member of the 49ers fandom feels right now.
Where some of us differ is in terms of where the 49ers are in terms of being a contender for the Super Bowl after this season. Some fans see the team as a competitor if they can keep key players healthy during the season, while others believe the team has some serious work to do before it can compete with the best that the NFC, and NFL in general, has to offer.
For the record, I fall into the latter category.
And how could I not? LT, C, LCB, RCB, NCB. These are just some of the positions the 49ers have legitimate questions or voids at, and I have not even delved into the issue regarding depth at some positions.
I feel like for the 49ers to get back to the Super Bowl and remain a contender, they need to set out a better roadmap than what they have done for the last few years. Sure, the roadmap Shanahan and Lynch are currently using helped them reach the big game during the 2019-2020 season, but it failed them during the 2020 season and has potentially set the team up to be only somewhat competitive going forward.
I do not know what other fans may think, but I want my 49ers to be in the Super Bowl picture for as long as possible.
To do this, I feel like they need a roadmap like the one I am laying out.
1. Stop handing out bad contracts
Dee Ford.
Kwon Alexander.
Arik Armstead.
Weston Richburg.
These are just some of the examples of bad contracts that have been handed out during the Shanahan and Lynch era, with the common thread being they have been given to players who have issues staying healthy or overvalued by the current regime. Each one of these contracts has come back to haunt the 49ers in some way, be it with cap constraints or underwhelming performance. If the 49ers genuinely want to remain contenders, then the team needs to be a lot smarter with whom they hand out contracts to.
2. Draft better in the first round
Let us face it; the 49ers have been relatively awful when it comes to their selections in the first round of the past four drafts. Other than the no-brainer selection of DE Nick Bosa and the smart move to trade up for WR Brandon Aiyuk, the team does not have a lot to show for their first-round selections. Solomon Thomas was overvalued, experienced a tragedy that affected his play on the field, and was largely miscast until this season with the result unknown since he was lost before the conclusion of the second regular-season game.
After that, Reuben Foster was a malcontent disappointment, Mike McGlinchey a hot and cold RT who is weak against the pass rush, and the jury is still out on what exactly Javon Kinlaw brings to the table. Bad picks like these tend to set a team back, and the 49ers will fall into this trap if they keep misfiring on getting the right first-round prospect.
3. Take a risk unless it is not smart to do so
What do I mean by this? Let me show you.
Trade up for Reuben Foster = BAD CHOICE
Trade for Emmanuel Sanders = SMART MOVE
Sign a third-string RB to a top 5 deal = YOU’VE HAD TOO MUCH SO I AM CUTTING YOU OFF
Trading up in the third round to take Beathard in a draft that had Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson in it = I’M SORRY I HAD TO KNOCK YOU OUT AND TOSS YOU IN THAT STORAGE CLOSET, BUT IT WAS THE ONLY WAY
As you can see, Shanahan and Lynch have been rather bad when it comes to risk assessment. Going for a high-risk high reward player is all fine and dandy when it works out, but so far, their decision-making when it comes to this has left a lot to be desired.
They seriously need to do better in this area.
4. Plan better
Knowing that almost the entire secondary was scheduled to hit the free-agent market, the 49ers resigned Jimmy Ward ….and no one else.
Knowing that Jimmy Garoppolo has struggled to stay healthy, the 49ers …. brought back Josh Rosen and Josh Johnson.
Knowing that they needed an RG, the 49ers …. had a competition mainly between Daniel Brunskill and Tom Compton.
I could go on, but it is too painful.
So what are your thoughts? Do you agree or disagree that the 49ers have more work to do? Do you have a roadmap you want to see the team follow? Let me know your thoughts down below.
Razor: I think it would be nice to know who wrote an article. Could you add the byline unless of course I'm just not seeing it.
ReplyDeleteThis is an article I wrote. I'll see if I can get my screen name added to it.
DeleteOk, Cubus. I'll try and add that for you. MWD was kind enough to join up as one of the contributors and this is his first article.
Delete"Stop handing out bad contracts".
ReplyDeleteI couldn't agree more. Where Baalke was perhaps a miser, Lynch hands out contracts like a drunker sailor. While Lynch has charisma, I'm beginning to see why a more professional GM is a necessity. Although he was smart enough to try and surround himself with professionals, that doesn't seem to have helped. Maybe these contracts aren't all Lynch's fault. What's Paraag's role been in these contracts. Maybe he just tried to make the best situation out of orders that he was given.
With the current salary cap situation I don't think we'll need to worry about, Lynch getting drunk on contracts. On the flipside, I don't see any incentive whatsoever for a f/a to sign early this year due to no injury risk.
DeleteYou're most likely correct about this year Razor, but I fear it will be business as usual with the bad contracts once the league's salary cap goes back up. That has to change going forward.
DeleteNice article Mid!
ReplyDeleteRe the bad contracts, completely agree. The main issue imo is the large injury guarantees paid to guys with a history of serious injuries (Ford, Alexander, Richburg). Each of these contracts, while expensive, were originally designed to allow the team to part with the player pretty painlessly as effectively a series of one year deals, but injury guarantees can prevent that as we are seeing with Ford. Which really comes back to the point of signing guys with serious injury histories to big contracts - occasionally you can risk it, but making a habit of it will likely come back to bite you.
Armstead's is also bad because his cap hit is going to be a monster by the 2022 season for a guy that is just good and needs quality around him to shine.
Regarding risk/ reward - that's a tricky one. After the fact can be a poor basis for measuring whether a risk was worth taking, because we often look at it through the lens of whether it worked out. Take passing on Watson and Mahomes - it was obvious what the plan was and at the time hardly anyone thought it was a bad move. Not the fans, not the media, not the analysts. People questioned the Thomas pick, sure, but not through the lens of OMG they passed on Watson and Mahomes. In fact, when people queried not taking a QB there it was more regarding Trubisky. But with 2020 hindsight there are a lot of teams that would make different choices in that draft.
Also, worth keeping in mind that ShanaLynch literally only had a couple of months to work out their plans for the future before the draft. You can understand why they felt it prudent to try and build up the talent base around the QB with the expectation they would get a proven commodity in Cousins the next offseason. Beathard was never expected to be the answer, just a backup to Cousins. This is also why I am a little more lenient on them for the 2017 draft in general - they simply didn't have the time to plan for it properly.
But, I do take your point. Handing out a massive deal for a RB that had never been more than a role player was crazy. Just because they had the money to do so didn't make it worth doing. Even if he stayed healthy, the realistic chances of him going from role player to bonafide star were small. And as we know, the Shanahan scheme makes a habit of churning out good RBs from low pedigree - simply no need to invest those types of resources there. Foster was clearly a bit off and had a history of injuries. While the talent was there, the warning signs were flashing in neon. Then you add the signing injury prone players to big contracts. They have a history of taking unnecessary risks. What they do with Verrett is going to be very interesting.
When it comes to drafting in the 1st round, take away 2017 (for reasons mentioned above) and they have been decent. Yeah, McGlinchey struggled last year in pass blocking. But he's one of the best run blocking OTs in the NFL and prior to last year was solid in pass protection. He isn't amazing, but he has been more good than bad. Bosa obviously very good. And Aiyuk looks very good while Kinlaw showed promise. Then add guys like Kittle, Warner, Deebo and Greenlaw - they've added some real cornerstone pieces over the past few years. Plus some solid depth guys. They draft ok.
In terms of the current situation the team is in salary cap wise and with players off contract, the team would be just fine salary cap wise if it was not for the pandemic. And it is a bit unfair blaming them for that. If the salary cap was $210M instead of ~$180M they would have no trouble bringing back most of their FAs.
All great points Scooter! I get what you are referring to in regards to the pandemic affecting their available salary cap space and do not hold that against them. However, it was already being anticipated that the 49ers would not be able to retain some of their free agents before the pandemic hit, so I can't see that as a strong argument. A good and valid one, but not a strong one.
ReplyDeleteComing into this blog sideways--my bad. Looking for a way to join in--other than anonymously.
ReplyDeleteZilla (formery Freakin' Zilla)