Everyone evaluates the Edge position differently, and this regime has always put a premium on big DE's in Round 1. This is a chart I like to use while I watch film of a player to chart their traits most relevant to the position. Could the addition of Morris convince them to invest pick 27 in a DPR?
As I said yesterday, the way the DL room is currently constructed they almost have to. Where's the pass rush coming from if they don't? Even if they sign one of the vets still available they're light on pass rush options.
ReplyDeleteAs to whether it's a DPR or a guy they think can also play in base or 5-man fronts, not sure. I suspect they'll go for someone they think can at least not be a complete liability vs the run. But almost have to go edge.
The most Dee Ford like player for me in this draft would likely be R Mason Thomas.
ReplyDeleteYeah, pretty similar style.
DeleteThere's something about the way Howell plays I can't help but really like. He's almost playing games with the OT.
The way he gets perpendicular to the LOS really opens up inside and outside moves to keep the OT off balance, and the way he then can take that long lateral stride to get depth past the OT while also widening to keep hands off him, combined with the ghost move and his acceleration, is pretty special.
I don't think you could go wrong with either at 27.
DeleteHow about football intelligence? Is that tested?
ReplyDeleteI wish we could be privy to interviews. That would solidify player evaluations.
DeleteI think my greatest fear in this draft is that Kyle convinces John he can't live without Mike Washington.
ReplyDeleteScooter,
DeleteWhat is it about Washington that you dislike so much? I know RB doesn't look like one of their top 5 needs but I would not mind them drafting a true bell cow and using CMC as a Swiss army knife. Using CMC more at receiver would allow them to not draft a WR in this years draft.
He's a fumbler and there will be a team who overdrafts him in a really weak class. Won't be us.
DeleteCoach, the main thing for me is he likely won't be there in the 4th. So the 49ers would either need to take him with their 2nd or move up. Both options are awful imo.
DeleteAs for the player - I am extremely wary of big backs that are extremely athletic but only had one year averaging more than 5ypc in college. Screams a player that doesn't have great RB instincts or short area movement skills and is reliant on a runway. Trey Sermon/ Isaac Guerendo types.
I think the tape unfortunately also supports this. Powerful runner with some agility, but big plays come from being given some big holes to run through. Can struggle to create much in tight quarters outside of just using his bulk to try and power some yards.
Carlos Hyde?
DeleteKevan Barlow
DeleteActually Hyde and Barlow both had decent careers. I think Issac Guerendo fits the bill better
DeleteBoth Hyde and Barlow careers didn't live up to their draft picks. Especially Hyde who was drafted close to where Clinton Portis was drafted. Still the highest a Shanahan has ever drafted a RB.
DeleteHe's more juiced up than Guerendo, with a bit more agility, but in the end quite a similar player. Basically, Matt Breida with Guerendo's size.
DeleteAlways be leery of a RB with only one year of production after 5.
Delete💯
DeleteMike Evans' cap hit is a mere $4M in 2026.
ReplyDeleteNot sure I love that. I would have preferred SF to take a larger cap hit on him this year so the out is easier if he doesnt work out.
ReplyDeleteLooking at it closer that means SF has an out after this season but if they use it they take a hit of 9M in dead cap next year.
Dead cap means next to nothing anymore because the cap continues to increase substantially year after year.
DeleteYeah, whether the cap hit is this year or next is largely immaterial, but in general is better to happen later since cap space can be rolled over and the cap keeps increasing.
DeleteIt's about balancing void years and how you can manipulate the cap with cap carryover to help maintain it.
DeleteI disagree here because while the cap increases it means his cap number gets larger, its not in a vacuum.
DeleteAs the cap goes up so does the amount you need to pay players, which is only part of the problem. The other part is the amount you have available vs the amount other players have. This comes into play not only for signing big name stars but in retaining players and adding solid pieces within your cap.
It's only really a problem if you also are up against the cap each year with no carry over. So long as you're responsible with it, it's fine.
DeleteAround the league, the average year 1 cap hit for free agent contracts was 50.5% of their new APY.
DeleteThe Bengals did it at an 80.9% rate.
I get it's only a problem if you don't manage it. But SF has been doing this as a whole for too long. See Bosa Williams and CMC... It's almost like the team is choosing to run their operations on deferred credit. Which may be financially more beneficial though admittedly I haven't looked at the numbers.
DeleteMy sense is it's a cash move move but I prefer the flexibility. It's a different strategy.
Best TE inline blockers:
ReplyDeleteSam Roush (Stanford)
Oscar Delp (Georgia)
Will Kacmarek (Ohio St)
Nate Boerkircher (Texas A&M)
Dallen Bentley (Utah)
Josh Cuevas (Alabama)
Jack Endries (California)
The only division one EDGE rushers since 2015 with the following production numbers in at least one college season..
ReplyDelete🔘 Pressure rate > 17.00%
🔘 Run stop rate < 7.50%
🔘 Win rate in true pass sets > 27.50%
🔘 RAS > 9.40
Dani Dennis-Sutton (Scooter) and Malachi Lawrence (Razor) both project as 'Tier 2' plus level NFL starters....👀
Myles Garrett > 18.79%/< 7.2%/> 29.60%
DeleteTrey Hendrickson > 17.05%/< 5.4%/>29.10%
Washington WR Denzel Boston hits 37.5" on the vertical jump at Huskies pro day. RB Jonah Coleman DNT (choice). CB Tacario Davis 36.5".
ReplyDelete"The highest vertical jump by a wide receiver at the NFL Scouting Combine is 45 inches, achieved by Chris Conley in 2015." Google A.I.
DeleteWasn't he with the 49ers for a couple of years? 45" vertical is in the Michael Jordan stratosphere.
Lowest catch rate allowed, 2026 NFL Draft safeties:
ReplyDeleteSkyler Thomas, Oregon State: 38.5%
Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, Toledo: 40.0%
VJ Payne, Kansas State: 47.2%
Wydett Williams Jr., Ole Miss: 51.1%
Jalon Kilgore, South Carolina: 52.3%
Jahron Manning, Mississippi State: 54.2%
DeShon Singleton, Nebraska: 55.2%
Dalton Johnson, Arizona: 55.6%
Gunner Maldonado, Kansas State: 57.1%
Silas Walters, Miami (OH): 57.8%
Christian Kirk joining on a 1-year deal.
ReplyDeleteChristian Kirk had receptions in the Wild Card round where he was clocked at 20.05, 19.64, and 19.13 miles per hour. Those would have been three of the four fastest times for any 49ers ball carrier last season.
DeleteVery much feels like the 49ers are eyeing a 1-2 year push for a SB with the aging core.
ReplyDeleteSince they don't seem to mind adding some short term vets to provide impact, I'd be giving Von Miller and Joel Bitonio a call. In for a penny...
DeleteMaybe add in Aaron Donald.😂
DeleteIs Kirk the new Skyy Moore?
ReplyDeleteYep. We have one of our KRs.
DeleteI suspect he will also fill into some of JJ's snaps.
Solid signing. Injury risk there, but a proven veteran presence. I guess our FO was thinking Sky Moore will return. I think we upgraded.
An expensive replacement for Skyy Moore, if that's the case.
DeleteImo he's JJ's replacement as the primary slot WR (well, JJ's replacement had he not needed to play X last year). With Evans being Aiyuk's replacement at X.
Having a big X gives them the leeway to go a smaller, speedier guy in the slot.
X: Mike Evans | Demarcus Robinson
DeleteZ: Ricky Pearsall | Jordan Watkins
F: Christian Kirk | Jacob Cowing
Concepcion had his knee scoped but is expected to be ready for camp.👀
ReplyDelete370 of Christian Kirk's 500 snaps were from the slot last year.
ReplyDeleteTrey Zuhn III (6’6” 312) Texas A&M
ReplyDelete+ Multi-year team captain
+ 96.8 pass blocking grade with just 10 pressures allowed in 2025
+ Low amount of penalties
+ Quickness off the snap
+ Blocking on the move
+ Four-year starter with over 3,200 snaps played in the SEC
+ Aggressive mentality
+ Tons of experience at left tackle, but did log 126 snaps at center in 2025, which is where he projects in the NFL
- 59.7 run blocking grade in 2025
- Doesn’t have the arm length to stick at tackle most likely
- Physicality at the point of attack
- Sustaining blocks
Draft projection: Day 3
Kevin Coleman Jr. (5’10 179) Missouri
ReplyDelete+ Shifty playmaker
+ Reliable hands with just a 2.9% drop rate in 2025
+ Ball tracking on deep balls
+ Impressive contested catch numbers at 81.8% (9 for 11) in 2025
+ Elusiveness in the open field
+ Punt return ability
+ Finding soft spots against zone
- Limited catch radius with just 30” arm length
- 1.62 10-yard split is 15th percentile
- Undersized at just 179 pounds
- Lacks the mass to be an effective blocker
Draft projection: Early Day 3
Kansas State Center Sam Hecht 6’4 303
ReplyDeleteIn his last two seasons at K state he allowed 0 sacks and 16 pressures on 787 pass block snaps
High level post snap processor, able to get off blocks to pick up alerts. Great hip mobility to be able to reach block. Works well in space. Adequate play strength to drive block.
At this time, I'm leaning towards Howell or R Mason Thomas at 27 and Antonio Williams at 58.
ReplyDeleteIf they make 2 more FA signings I would consider this the best FA/trade period in my memory. The 2 positions I want them to sign are IOL and Edge. My first choice would be Bosa and Seumalo or Bitonio. Then draft a OT in round 1, edge in round 2, WR/TE/S/LB in round 4
ReplyDeleteWhere is the OT going to play?
DeleteIt's definitely been an exciting FA period. If everyone stays healthy they've added some really nice pieces that can impact games.
DeleteNot at all what I was expecting - I thought they'd be focusing on getting younger. But clearly making it a priority to maximise the remaining years of their star core, so should make for fun 1-2 years.
Razor,
DeleteI see them moving him inside until TW retires. They added a pretty good swing tackle in free agency so if they draft an OT he could be their LG for a couple of seasons
OL Brett Toth's 1-year, $2.5 million deal. It includes $2.215 million guaranteed.
DeleteCap number: $2.5 million
Base salary: $1.215 million
Signing bonus: $1 million
Per game roster bonus: Up to $260k
Workout bonus: $25k
Basically, the same contract they gave Bartch to be their starting LG.
and they can expect a level of play the same as Bartch and or Burford. If they use Toth and Lowe as their primary O line backups they will have the best O line depth they have had since Daniel Brunskill's years
DeleteBartch was excellent in the limited time he could stay on the field.
DeleteAs things stand, the one spot on the OL I'd say is still open is either starting OG or, if Toth is the starter, backup OG/C. So may look to add another FA, or, more likely imo, look to add a guy in the draft.
DeleteMost forced incompletions, 2026 NFL Draft safeties:
ReplyDeleteWydett Williams Jr., Ole Miss: 11
Jalon Kilgore, South Carolina: 11
Bud Clark, TCU: 7
VJ Payne, Kansas State: 6
Jakobe Thomas, Miami (FL): 6
Genesis Smith, Arizona: 6
Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, Toledo: 5
Dalton Johnson, Arizona: 5
Silas Walters, Miami (OH): 5
Kapena Gushiken, Ole Miss: 5
Louis Moore, Indiana: 5
Dillon Thieneman, Oregon: 5
A.J. Haulcy, LSU: 5
Devan Boykin, Indiana: 5
Isaiah Nwokobia, SMU: 5
Malik Spencer, Michigan State: 5
UCF EDGE Malachi Lawrence is one of four EDGE rushers since 2015 with an RAS > 9.89 and a sack rate > 4.00%, joining Montez Sweat, TJ Watt, and Myles Garrett.
ReplyDeleteThat sounds wrong to me. He had 20 sacks in college and played 1,326 total snaps as a DL. To have a sack rate above 4%, less than 500 of those snaps must have been pass rush snaps - less than 38% of snaps.
DeleteIn 2025 he played 470 snaps, 228 of which were pass rush snaps, with 7 sacks (around 3% sack rate).
I find it extremely hard to believe he only had 272 or less pass rush snaps in 2022, 2023 and 2024 combined, against 584 or more run defense snaps.
I'm guessing the sack rate is based on best college season, so probably his 2023 sack rate.
DeleteNumber of players over 30 in the 2025/26 season:
ReplyDeleteRams - 11
49ers - 9
Seahawks - 7
Average player age:
Rams: 26.38 years
49ers: 26.30 years
Seahawks: 25.77 years
Interesting, are these all players on a roster, starters or do they have a limited number snaps?
DeleteBy snap weighted age in 2025 per @FTNFantasy:
Delete49ers 27.3, 3rd oldest
Rams 26.7, 13th oldest
Seahawks 26.1, 29th oldest
Virginia RB J'Mari Taylor has a meeting lined up with the 49ers, per
ReplyDeleteGreg Madia.
As the world of mock drafts turns. As of 3/17, Daniel Jeremiah now has the 49ers taking Kenyon Sadiq at 27. Kiper is sticking with Lomu at 27.
ReplyDeleteI would like to start doing my mock drafts but I never start until after the 49ers are done with free agency. I wonder when that will be.
DeleteAs things stand I just can't see a scenario that doesn't have the 49ers taking edge at 27.
DeleteThe mock drafts will be cranked up to full gear soon Coach. They're always fun and keep us 49ers fans attentive going forward.
ReplyDelete