The basis of the narrative is Lynch has been a terrible draft generator since he’s been here. Focusing on the “worst” of the 49ers draft years (including 2022 and 2023), results in an overall drop of just about 2% in rostered players drafted and developed inside the building over multiple years. This means even eliminating their best draft years prior to 2022, the 49ers STILL sit solidly mid-pack in the NFL at a respectable 48-50% rate of draftees/UDFAs vs. trade/FA acquisitions. Drafting players, or signing post-draft UDFAs, that are not just starters, but solid depth pieces that remain on the roster 2-3 or more years later is a genuine metric for determining the value of team’s draft process. You can't evaluate draft success without considering the valuable depth players who are drafted then productive in support for years. These are guys that can make or break a team.
Multiple year value from homegrown players is an absolute, measurable component. Arbitrary values assigned to “reaching” off a consensus board created by people outside the building making lists in a vacuum, is not.
“I’d take Stribling over Cooper in a heartbeat.” Scot McCloughan
ReplyDelete“I liked him quite a bit, to tell you the truth Some people didn’t, and I don’t understand why, because he’s got size, he’s got speed, he’s got good ball skills. And he made plays. I don’t understand why they’re questioning the pick. I’d take Stribling in a heartbeat over Cooper, because Stribling can run. Cooper is not a speed player at all. He’s like Deebo Samuel — just bulk up a little and do the dirty work. Stribling can do either/or. He can go outside and go vertical. You better hold on, because he can run.”
DeleteAsked an AFC front office executive how bad this year’s draft class was and he texted back:
ReplyDelete“The worst in decades. If he was in this year’s draft, Shedeur Sanders might have even gone in Round 4”.
Rationality swings like a pendulum when it comes to this draft. Imho, if Stribling, Height, and Black can contribute in they're rookie season, I'll consider this to be a very good draft class for the 49ers. 2-3 hits is a good draft for me. If more rookies aside from the above 3 contribute, it's a great draft.
ReplyDeleteAgreed.
DeleteJohnny Dell Senior Bown video shows Black's "super twitchy" traits in the pass game.
ReplyDelete"No linebacker there could cover him."
See starting around 37:00.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b9uFVNOMZUM&t=2157s
I'm not worried about Black. Just glad he was there for us.
DeleteThe more I watch about Black, the more I see that he fits the archetype Kyle was seeking to fill as a sub for CMC.
ReplyDeleteI think he'll be good this year if he can get through camp unscathed.
DeleteBig fan of Black. Big fan of Stribling.
DeleteI thought both went early, but end of the day that opinion is largely based on consensus big boards - in terms of both players I did like them pretty close to where they went in terms of order for their position group.
I don't believe either will be elite players. But I do think both are going to be solid starting calibre players or at worst good contributors during their rookie deals.
"I don't believe either will be elite players. But I do think both are going to be solid starting calibre players or at worst good contributors during their rookie deals."
DeleteFor me, that's part of the intrigue of the draft every year. I remember when Kittle, Purdy, and all the way back to Frank Gore got low marks when drafted. I just hope that players from last year's and this draft rise to the top and become major stars.
Getting an elite player in the worst draft in decades seems like a heavy ask, especially from pick 33 onward. If one does become elite, I'd say that would need to slot in next to the Warner and Kittle picks.
DeleteYep, agree razor. I was banging the drum about the need to add elite talent to start replacing the aging core, but as we got closer to the draft it became apparent this wasn't the draft to do so.
DeleteGetting some good starters/ contributors will be a good outcome. If they get any elite players from this group its outstanding.
Niners have waived CB Tre Tomlinson.
ReplyDeleteInteresting insights from Shanahan on the Eisen show and why they felt they needed to take guys like Stribling and Black where they did. Highlights how highly they rated them, and also how in the past they've been disappointed at losing guys they really wanted but thought they could wait on only to see another team take them.
ReplyDeleteDieter also raises an interesting point from this insight - it demonstrates how the 49ers tend to fixate on certain players and don't like to risk losing them. Nothing new we didn't already suspect, but confirms it. And not necessarily a good or bad thing, many teams are the same, just an interesting insight to how they operate.
Decisions made in real-time, with all of the variables present, often look very different from projected picks made two months ago from deep inside a vacuum.
DeleteDid Dieter put a negative spin with the point he made? I'm betting he did.
Dieter has actually been pretty positive about the 49ers draft class and offseason.
DeleteRegardless of whether you want to only be positive about everything the 49ers do or not, it is an interesting insight to how they operate.
Tbh, I think it's quite comical that these critique artists actually believe they could do a better job than this regime.
DeleteI'm sure some of the people critiquing the draft or handing out draft grades believe they could do better, but I think most are cognizant enough to know it is purely an exercise and that only time will tell how well any team drafted.
DeleteWhat purpose does it serve to hand out grades on a test that hasn't even been given yet? - Invader49er
ReplyDeleteDing, ding, ding, ding. We have a winner. I completely agree. It's way too early to grade a draft class before they have even touched the field. In fact, it's still too early to grade last year's draft class.
And those who hand out grades are only doing so in comparison to other opinions in the media or public. I don't get worked up about where a player is taken, and I don't really care about draft grades.
My question to Marc Adams.
Delete