If Stroud cannot be efficient and sustain drives to protect his defense they're going to wear down coming off a Monday Night game.
49ers D-line rankings:
Pass-rush win rate: 32% (#26)
Run-stop win rate: 32% (#8)
Improved from #29 to #8 EPA against the run. Not too shabby.
49ers O-line rankings:
Pass-block win rate: 61% (#20)
Run-block win rate: 69% (#28)
Shanahan is 2-0 against the Texans. He'll be going against the top defense in the league who has shown some susceptibility against the run. SF leads the league in offensive 3rd-down conversion rate. Christian McCaffrey leads the league in yards after catch - more than 100 yards ahead of the next player. Can the 49ers continue to defy the odds and win in Houston? They can but they'll need to play a nearly perfect game offensively, and capitalize on Houston's missed tackle rate which ranks 31st this season, missing 44 tackles on the season. Niners get that YAC and Eddie hits the game winner 20-17!
49ers inactives:
Will Anderson Jr. has rushed the passer from the defense’s left side roughly 75% of the time this season. Colton McKivitz likely the one who has to contend with him the most today.
ReplyDeleteStopping the run is probably the single most reason the Niners are 5-2 so far this season. Last week the Niners finally ran the ball themselves which enabled them to control the clock and the game. Niners will be 6-2 at the end of the day. Victory is the crowning glory of success.
ReplyDeleteHouston will be without top WR's Nico Collins and Christian Kirk. Without their top 2 WR's Houston will likely lean heavily on TE Dalton Schultz. He's expected to be Stroud's primary target with Collins out.
ReplyDelete* Collins suffered a concussion in the Week 7 against Seattle and has been ruled out for Week 8.
* Kirk is out for the Week 8 game with a hamstring injury.
To beat Houston, the 9ers O-line must contain their pass rush: Houston's pass rush is anchored by Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter. 9er OT's McKivitz, TW and the O-line must protect Mac Jones from Houston's pass rush and give him time to exploit Houston banged-up receiving corps. Jones must get the ball out quickly, get into a rhythm and counter Houston's pass rush.
ReplyDeleteCome on defense - wake up
ReplyDeleteWhole team needs to wake up.
ReplyDeleteThis could be a long day. They need to leave a RB or TE in to help McKivitz. When ever KS has to leave in a eligible blocker it takes a lot away from his creativity. The D looks like a team missing their 3 best edge rushers and their DPOY candidate LB
ReplyDeleteToo early to panic.
ReplyDeleteAs poor as the defense is playing they are only one TD away from taking the lead. But the way the O and D looks today, I agree with Coach.
ReplyDeleteEven Saleh looks defeated on the sidelines today. Hopefully the 49ers get an epiphany at halftime or they're cooked. They look lifeless in all areas of the game right now.
ReplyDeleteWithout a pass rush there’s not much Saleh can do.plus it’s forcing us into a passing game against the #1 pass defense.
ReplyDeleteWell at least Kittle's TD gives us a glimmer of hope. If they can take the 2nd half KO and score we have a chance. I just don't see this D improving that much. I have been waiting for all the injuries on D to catch up with us and it looks like it finally might be happening. Saleh is good but he is not a miracle worker.
ReplyDeleteThis is where we need Purdy. Mac is not mobile and can’t buy time from the pass rush.
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure BPs mobility would make a difference. The rush is getting their too quickly and BP likely couldn't stay healthy
DeleteThe D line just can’t hold up. Houston has scored on 6 of 7 possessions and they are just eating up the clock and wearing down the D.
ReplyDeleteNeither can the Oline hold up. These types of losses are frustrating for me, because they're the teams we should beat. Tough one to swallow, but considering so many key injuries a 5-3 record is nothing to sneeze at.
ReplyDeleteThe O line was up against a great D line so to be expected. We desperately need a pass rush.
DeleteThis game was just one of those stinkers that happen in sport. Forget about it and get on with the next game.
ReplyDeleteI’m not sure about that. Our D line not only didn’t have a pass rush, the entire line was completely dominated by an average O line.
DeleteYes! Houston had such success running on first down, I was wondering why they even had to pass, of course, until I saw that Stroud was having a picnic passing, too.
Delete"We didn't play as good as we could" -- Kyle Shanahan after the 49ers listless performance today.
ReplyDeleteCan’t believe Grant Cohn actually has a following. Cohn seems to take pride in being obnoxious and a troll, which makes no sense for a journalist. He and his father have no self awareness whatsoever. Am done with the two of them.
ReplyDeleteSalah insists on calling that soft zone behind the blitz even after he knows that Stround has been picking it apart. Just refuses to play press cover. Salah didn't help his depleted pass rush.
ReplyDeleteI think Luter, Green and Lenoir are the three best corners -- return Lenoir to the slot.
Painful game to watch…so many injuries which are impossible to overcome.
ReplyDeleteI hope we get wins against the Giants, Titans, Panthers and Cardinals. And maybe one more win against Bears, Browns or Rams.
Should barely make playoffs still if the offense can pick up the slack for the D.
Yeah, at some point the offense will need to step up and take on more of the burden. They've had their own injuries so understandably been tough to get going, but guys should be coming back soon and that will need to become the strength of the team.
DeleteMug,
ReplyDelete9 games left. 5-6 wins could punch they're ticket to the post season. Seattle, Rams, Arizona, Colts won't be easy.
AES,
DeleteI think we can beat the Cardinals, although we will be on the road. True about Rams, Seattle and Colts. We had Fred for the Rams game and we sneaked through, might be tough this time around.
Seattle will be the last game of the season and could come down to the wire, while the Colts are surprisingly good this year. But we play them on Monday night, KS is usually pretty buttoned up in front of a National Audience. So anything might happen there.
Next week against the Giants is make or break for us IMO. We play same 10 AM Start on East Coast...seeing how they played today, I think KS and RS will have the team ready to play and I'm hoping Purdy can start!
Hoping the Meadowlands aka as "ACL Graveyard" doesn't cause any more casualties....Halloween weekend at Meadowlands sounds eerily similar to a horror movie. :)
This season has been like watching an an acconda squeeze the life out of a deer. There is fight (which is fun to watch) but not much hope.
ReplyDeleteMug,
ReplyDeleteI'm hopeful that the 49ers can at a minimum win 5 games. Giants, Panthers, Cleveland, Chicago, and Titans are feasible wins. And beating a team in our division gives the 49ers an 11-6 season with a very shot at the post season. On the other hand, will making the playoffs hurt the 49ers drafting efforts? There are obvious needs entering next season. This is not popular. But winning more games means losing drafting position. That sounds harsh, but the 49ers are not a Superbowl team this season.
I would rather we win and establish a winning culture with the young players.
DeleteIMO, drafting late teens vs late 20s should not matter much.
Good point, Mug.
Deletevery *good* shot..
ReplyDeleteI've been reading about persistant busted coverages in the secodary. How is that possible? Are our opponents inventing
ReplyDeletenever--seen-before formations? Nooo. I'm not so forgiving of our defensive coaches when we continually botch fundamentals.
Maybe Ben Bartch can help the O-line if he returns. Once upon a time, he played well. The return of Pearsall, Aiyuk, Watkins and Purdy and the demotion of Jennings could be huge if only we can protect
Purdy -- we'll have a fine offense.
Any updates on yesterdays injuries?
ReplyDeletePer DL,
ReplyDelete"Winters (knee) day to day. Mac (knee) day to day. Al Collins (ankle) day to day. Huff, (hamstring) out for at least another week.
Purdy may go against NY.
Also, DL slight joking, the 49ers need to bring Thibodeaux back with the from NY."
OK, SO NOW WHAT? WITH THE TRADE DEADLINE IN ONE WEEK, WHAT DO THE 9ERS DO?
ReplyDelete* The 9ers have so many banged up pieces, especially on defense with Warner out and Bosa out. They looked great against the Falcons on Sunday night, but I think a real 9ers defense showed up on Sunday.
* This 9ers D is not going to get fixed with just 1 move and we don't want to give up valuable assets, like it would take to go trade for Trey Hendrickson. So how much of the future is JL willing to trade away?
* This is a 9er team that moved on from a lot of high-priced veterans. Guys that they didn't just cut because they were overpaid, guys that they cut because they had to turn the corner and get younger.
* As a 5W - 3L team does JL just stand pat at the trading deadline? I
don't believe JL or KS wants to stand pat, but I also don't believe they want to leverage the future.
* can the 9ers make a legitimate run if they trade for lets say a 3rd Rd DE to get pressure on the QB? IMO, I don't think so! So does JL trade for a DE like Chase Young, and if he leaves, the 9ers get back a compensatory #3, which is like a draft pick around 102 - 105?
* I'll admit I'm lost if I were John Lynch.
* BOTTOM LINE: I would not mortgage the future. I would only make a deal here if it's truly sensible.....Whatever that means?
Same position they were in the last two weeks when we discussed this.
DeleteImo only trade for a guy that can also help you next year, or will be important in the development of the guys you'll be leaning on next year.
I hear ya Geep, don't mortgage the future for a player who might help get to the playoffs. As AES said this team is not a super bowl team. If it was a SB team yes, I would make a trade.
ReplyDeleteThe offense needs to stay on the field, not getting a first down until late in the second quarter, no wonder the defense couldn't defend they were on the field most of the game. The defense is at the moment inept, sometimes the best defense is a great offense.
I am old school, pound the rock, and stop the run, the Niners did neither and they lost...the game of football is still about the run.
Imho. There could be a move next week. But the pattern from this years draft will be the same blueprint used next April. Only difference will be that the Oline will receive more attention. We have been saying it for a couple years that the team needs to make a serious effort at replacing TW. Now, the Oline needs more than just TWs eventual replacement. But I agree, JL has some big decisions to make both now and for the future.
ReplyDeleteundercenter
ReplyDeleteI'm also a proponent for old school, smash mouth football. But you're right, that's not what we watched the 9ers play Sun.
* I didn't include the O-line in my assessment of how they played against Houston, because of back up players like OG Nick Zakelj, and OC Connor Colby and Matt Hennessy.
* What I didn't expect, was how poorly Colton McKivitz struggled against Houston's top pass-rusher, Will Anderson. McKivitz gave up 4 pressures, including 3 hurries and a hit. And TW wasn't that much better. While still the 9ers best O-lineman, he received a PFF grade of 81.3, but he struggled more than usual, giving up 1 sack and 4 pressures. All reinforcing my belief, that the 9ers need to draft an OT, a OC and an OG in the 2026 draft.
Geep,
DeleteI agree about the O line. They need to keep all of their draft picks in 26 to continue with their rebuild. If they do make a trade I hope they use picks from 27